Lepisto's first competition is going to be worlds? Hmm. It's one for Kim to do it. We'll see how Laura does but I don't know... Lovely skater though. It'll be nice to see her back.
2011 US Ladies World Team: What to expect?
- Thread starter R.D.
- Start date
Lepisto's first competition is going to be worlds? Hmm. It's one for Kim to do it. We'll see how Laura does but I don't know... Lovely skater though. It'll be nice to see her back.
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- Jun 3, 2009
Finland loses nothing by sending her with Korpi. Both are likely top ten candidates, whereas the rest won't make it past qualifying.
ETA: They've actually not sent their National champion in the past when she didn't do well at Euros (Korpi lost that spot)
ETA: They've actually not sent their National champion in the past when she didn't do well at Euros (Korpi lost that spot)
- Joined
- Jan 7, 2011
This was a competition with only 6 skaters. In a random draw at worlds it could've just as easily been the other way around. And under the COP, these kinds of judging irregularities have been done away with, especially for known skaters. Your argument there holds as much water as a geriatric bladder.
That is exactly what my number crunching was about. I calculated the exact points she lost with her mistakes in the SP. Then I calculated the exact points Alissa lost with her mistakes in the FS. Then I added them back into the total score. So I don't just think that Alissa would've won over Miki if they both skated perfectly, I know she would have.
If you had actually read my post thoroughly, that was not what I was discussing at all. Just to make it clear, Miki would've won if she was clean on her intended elements in the SP and FS while Alissa made the same mistakes she did in the FS.
not to get too far off track
Overall I agree that skate order is less important then it was during 6.0 and COP does let us see what potential TES scores could have been. But there are still GOEs and the PCS that are affected less directly. ie: If Allissa had been brilliant in her FS how much higher would her PCS scores have been? How many extra points for GOEs? Same for Miki in the short. These questions are not so easy to answer definitively by going through protocol sheets.
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That's the most worrisome point.
However, she has yet to skate clean in the FS. I think she has made small mistakes in every comp so there's still room for improvement.
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- Jan 7, 2011
Indeedy it's all guessing, but an educated one I think. That's why I peg the point loss to an approximate number not a concrete one. Once I add in the numbers, though, Miki and Alissa are still separated by a little over 3 points. That's not something the judges can just fudge, those are the kind of points gained and lost by doing or missing an element, or by a tech call. Given that point difference, I am confident in saying that at that particular GPF with those particular judges, if Miki and Alissa both skated mistake-free (i.e. fixing everything on the current protocols that resulted in negative tech calls and/or negative GOEs), Alissa would win. I am particularly confident because even though Miki skated flawlessly in the FS while Alissa made some iffy mistakes, the judges still gave Alissa 3+ points more in PCS.
Phew. Anyways, i don't mean to belabor and rehash a long done away with competition. The only point I am making is that Alissa is a podium threat this season. That she can go 3toe to 3toe with enough of the 3/3 landers out there to overtake them for the podium. That under what the COP values as technical elements, she is not a slouch. That really, once again, Alissa's biggest enemy is herself, although she seems to have slayed that one (but not in a suicidal way) a few times this season.
SO-RRY. Geez SB, I misunderstood you post. Actually, I thought your point was interesting and I wanted to understand it better which is why I asked. It didn't really occur to me that Alissa might have beat Miki Ando if both were perfect - even though I vastly prefer Alissa's skating and would like that to be the case. I was just intrigued about the point you were making that's all. Thank you for doing all that number crunching and making a very good point about how competitive Alissa really is.
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- Joined
- Jan 7, 2011
I apologize for being snooty in my post, Layfan. It was uncalled for. Most people (including me) misunderstand things sometimes, especially dry discussions filled with numbers. I got real carried away from even the main point.
The real discussion here is how well Alissa will do at Worlds. I know she technically has the goods but it's all about the mental. The best portent I saw on that at nationals was actually on Alissa's one mistake... the botched 3loop. She fought so hard to save that landing! And watching it in frame by frame slo mo, I see that she avoided putting unnecessary anything down. Not a free leg, not a hand, just her landing leg. Not many skaters could've saved that landing, and likely not the Alissa of past seasons. It showed steel and guts. If she keeps that attitude up at Worlds, she could have an off day and still fight enough for a good ranking for future US spots.
The real discussion here is how well Alissa will do at Worlds. I know she technically has the goods but it's all about the mental. The best portent I saw on that at nationals was actually on Alissa's one mistake... the botched 3loop. She fought so hard to save that landing! And watching it in frame by frame slo mo, I see that she avoided putting unnecessary anything down. Not a free leg, not a hand, just her landing leg. Not many skaters could've saved that landing, and likely not the Alissa of past seasons. It showed steel and guts. If she keeps that attitude up at Worlds, she could have an off day and still fight enough for a good ranking for future US spots.
thanks. My freed actually froze right on that triple loop, making it even scarier. I couldn't tell if she'd fallen. It unfroze just in time to see her gliding out of it and I could tell she had saved it. Whew. I hope she keeps it up too.
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- Jun 16, 2010
I expect around 5th or 6th for Czisny and 10th to 12th for Flatt which would not gain 3 spots. It depends both how they skate and how everyone else skates though. If everyone skated cleanly that is about where they would finish. Now we know there will be ALOT of mistakes from the others. However I tend to think there will also be mistakes from Czisny and Flatt. I dont think Czisny can handle the pressure of being considered a medal favorite, and Flatt isnt even skating that well this year and was gifted at Nationals. So their mistakes will balance out the mistakes of the others and they will still finish in those spots. Some skaters they would beat mutally clean will make less mistakes and beat them possibly, while others who they wouldnt beat mutually clean will probably make more and finish below them ending with roughly the same hypothetical result. I am not going to predict an exact order since there are so many streaky skaters but I roughly see:
Kim winning gold easily.
The Japanese women going places 2-4.
Whichever 3 out of Kostner, Korpi, Lepisto, Markova, Leonova, and maybe Meier who have a decent competition finishing places 5-8 along with Czisny.
Places 9-13 being filled up by Phanuef, Flatt, and whichever top European ladies bomb badly (probably about half of them will).
Kim winning gold easily.
The Japanese women going places 2-4.
Whichever 3 out of Kostner, Korpi, Lepisto, Markova, Leonova, and maybe Meier who have a decent competition finishing places 5-8 along with Czisny.
Places 9-13 being filled up by Phanuef, Flatt, and whichever top European ladies bomb badly (probably about half of them will).
Meier retired after the Europenans. She won't be at the Worlds.
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- May 11, 2010
I don't see why Alissa, if she goes clean, would not be able to beat the likes of Miki Ando and Murakami. Artistically, Alissa is better than those two, and the international judges do not seem to favor Miki in particular. Murakami is not there yet in terms of maturity and artistry.
And while Yuna SHOULD win the gold easily, given the circumstances (the championships being held in Tokyo, Yuna taking a year off, etc.) it may not be so easy... although I am certainly praying for two perfect performances by Yuna.
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Rachael could definitely do better than that. She was 9th last year with bad programs.
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- Nov 8, 2008
I think the ladies events will be so exciting with not a single ladies being so dominant. =)
well personall i would like to see alissa medal possible gold(me personnally), but thinking best shot bronze.
i think both alissa and rachel can get 3.
is laura lepisto going to worlds. someone stated she was.
okay yu-na probably gold, mao probably 2nd, for me leaves bronze open, with Alissa --gpf champ, miki, japan national champ, former world titlist,carolina kostner-former world medals and 2nd at gpf. as inside tracks for medal-if laura lepisto goes also inside track
with kanako, rachel, ksenia markova, alena leonova, kiria korpi , cynthia phaneuf as outside shots.
i listed 12 ladies.
i do think alissa and rachel can get three. i think alissa might get 3rd (clean skate) possible 5th (with mistakes) which would allow rachel to finish either 8th or 9th at worlds--but both would have to fight for it. but i think the USFSA would really like to have the Dance world title over 3 ladies for next your worlds -me personally kinda like to have both--dance world title and 3 spots, if have to give up one . i say 3 spots for pairs, men, ladies,.
i would like to see davis and white win world title and shibs finish no lower than 7th.
i think both alissa and rachel can get 3.
is laura lepisto going to worlds. someone stated she was.
okay yu-na probably gold, mao probably 2nd, for me leaves bronze open, with Alissa --gpf champ, miki, japan national champ, former world titlist,carolina kostner-former world medals and 2nd at gpf. as inside tracks for medal-if laura lepisto goes also inside track
with kanako, rachel, ksenia markova, alena leonova, kiria korpi , cynthia phaneuf as outside shots.
i listed 12 ladies.
i do think alissa and rachel can get three. i think alissa might get 3rd (clean skate) possible 5th (with mistakes) which would allow rachel to finish either 8th or 9th at worlds--but both would have to fight for it. but i think the USFSA would really like to have the Dance world title over 3 ladies for next your worlds -me personally kinda like to have both--dance world title and 3 spots, if have to give up one . i say 3 spots for pairs, men, ladies,.
i would like to see davis and white win world title and shibs finish no lower than 7th.
I think fairly is right and all of those ladies have a legitimate shot at a medal. It's figure skating. It's ice.
The thing I'm most worried about this those iffy UR calls like the surprise ones Rachel got at the Olympics that left her 7th despite two great skates.
The thing I'm most worried about this those iffy UR calls like the surprise ones Rachel got at the Olympics that left her 7th despite two great skates.
