Potential Sochi contenders: Ladies | Golden Skate

Potential Sochi contenders: Ladies

christinaskater

Medalist
Joined
Mar 21, 2005
I do hope Yu-Na would defend the Olympic title to make her tie with Katarina! That would be amazing!

Mao Asada is definitely going to be one of the major contenders for the title.

Miki Ando- should she stay as well.

Adelina Sotnikova- is one of the best skaters I have ever seen on the Junior stage- so exquisite and she has it all! She is a major Olympic gold medal contender for me.

Mirai Nagasu- Should she pull things together- she also can win. 2011-2012 is a crucial year to establish herself on the senior circuit and really live up to her potential.

Alissa Czisny- She is one of the best for me and should she stay who knows.

Carolina Kostner- she is getting better and better in her artistry! Jump difficulty could increase a bit.

Courtney Hicks- this girl is special! Hope she could live up to her potential.

Kanako Murakami- If her presentation really matures and she improves further her artistry and difficulty of jumps then she is also going to be one of the skaters to watch out for.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
1. I don't think Czisny or Kostner will be around. Nor Ando

2. Of the American ladies, I wouldn't neglect Zawadski. She came second at World juniors in 2010, third last year, and with her coaching change is heading in the right direction.

3. Sotnikova has the edge from the RBB, but Elizaveta Tuktamisheva shouldn't be overlooked.
 

MasterB

Final Flight
Joined
Jul 18, 2004
There is a truck load of girls coming our way and it will be exciting to see who can hold it together. As of right now I give the edge to Adelina, that girl has it all. If she can keep it together until 2014 she will be the one to beat. As for the American girls I hope to god that Alissa can keep coming strong. She is a very special skater and should she still be around I am rooting for her. Hicks is very strong but, does not have it all like Adelina. However, every year something different happens so we shall see.
 

evangeline

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Czisny couldn't even medal at Moscow worlds with two fairly decent performances and an extremely weak field. With the uber-juniors like Sotnikova coming up, the field is only going to get deeper. Even if Czisny sticks around I really don't see her anywhere near the podium in Sochi. The US Olympic team, maybe. But (with all due respect) what does it say about the state of US ladies skating if Czisny's able to make the team come 2014?

Kostner and Olympic ice are, well, not exactly bosom buddies.

Hicks...eh, don't really get the hype. She gets the jumps done but...there's a LOT of work to be done. As ImaginaryPogue says, Zawadski is probably a more likely option.

Personally I'd put my money on someone Russian or Japanese to take the gold in Sochi.
 

DianaSelene

Medalist
Joined
Aug 2, 2011
Czisny couldn't even medal at Moscow worlds with two fairly decent performances and an extremely weak field. With the uber-juniors like Sotnikova coming up, the field is only going to get deeper. Even if Czisny sticks around I really don't see her anywhere near the podium in Sochi. The US Olympic team, maybe. But (with all due respect) what does it say about the state of US ladies skating if Czisny's able to make the team come 2014?

Kostner and Olympic ice are, well, not exactly bosom buddies.

Hicks...eh, don't really get the hype. She gets the jumps done but...there's a LOT of work to be done. As ImaginaryPogue says, Zawadski is probably a more likely option.

Personally I'd put my money on someone Russian or Japanese to take the gold in Sochi.

Yeah, out of all the American girls so far, I only see potential in Zawadski and Nagasu (she has yet to reach her potential).
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Country
France
Why the Japanese, evangeline?

Because Russia and Japan are becoming closer linked diplomatically and the Russian black market will lobby the judges for a Japanese medalist (not Gold) in Sochi, meaning that if the chosen Russians falter then a Japanese person will be the most closely linked-in for a victory.

Russia and Japan will become closer and closer over the years. When World War 3 comes, it will be Russia + Japan + Turkey + Mexico against the USA + China. Those countries, along with India (who will remain neutral), will be the 7 major superpowers in the World in about 50 years when World War 3 happens.

This was told to me by a homeless "prophet"; I do not agree completely but there may be some merit there to the political forecasting.
 

NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
I don't think American skaters will have good chances at Sochi. They must expect some retaliations of stealing the OGM from Plushenko (just joking).
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Tuk is very good and is always second to Adelnia. It would be amazing if it was like that for the next few years. Adelina and Tuk going back and forth with wins. We will see who does better in the senior GP events than at jr worlds again! Those girls will be eligible for JR worlds after the sochi olympics. LOL
 

bekalc

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
Tuk is very good and is always second to Adelnia. It would be amazing if it was like that for the next few years. Adelina and Tuk going back and forth with wins. We will see who does better in the senior GP events than at jr worlds again! Those girls will be eligible for JR worlds after the sochi olympics. LOL

Their first season as Juniors, Kim always came second to Mao. A lot can change in 3/4 years time.

Elizaveta is a very different skater from Adelina. But I do think Elizaveta has her own very good qualities artistically. She has tremendous charisma/star power. And I think is quite musical. She also already does more choregraphy than Sotnikova does. Also reports are she may be going for that 3axel now in competition, which could be a game changer too. My concern with Tukt is I'm not sure Mishin is the best coach to develop her artistically. Oh don't get me wrong he's a great technical coach, but I wish he'd let someone else package her.

But Elizaveta I think has a very bright future in this sport if she survives puberty.
 

doubleflutz

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 20, 2010
My concern with Tukt is I'm not sure Mishin is the best coach to develop her artistically. Oh don't get me wrong he's a great technical coach, but I wish he'd let someone else package her.

I agree completely about the packaging, but I think Mishin is more than just a technical coach, and this is going to be Liza's strength leading up to Sochi. Mishin knows how to train champions, and that is what he is training her to be. She is an incredibly fierce competitor, has come from behind with messed up SPs to get on the podium more than once, because she continues to fight. If you ever watch her face in the K&C from events where she's behind Adelina, it's clear that she really wants to win, she's hungry for it in a way that I haven't seen since Tara Lipinski. I think going into Seniors, that's going to help close the gap between her and Adelina a great deal, and also mean that existing ladies won't give her much trouble. The ladies field isn't just weak right now, it's completely sapped of competitive energy.

For Sochi, the ones to beat will be those who have enough technical skills to stay in striking range of girls who're doing tough 3-3s, have 5+ triples, and/or a triple axel, and who've learned how to compete when the stakes are high. I don't see a single lady currently skating who fits the bill anymore, except Yuna if she revitalizes herself after a break, Mao if she works out her technical issues, which I think is possible, because I think they're 90% mental and not really a matter of physical limitations, and maybe Miki, if she does come back, and Morozov sees the writing on the wall and takes the breaks off her competition difficulty, but is very very careful about training her to peak at the right time and not stressing her back, which is a tall order. Other than that, I think only the juniors will be able to achieve the right combination of mental toughness and technical difficulty. None of the current senior ladies have the technical chops or the competitive fire. The only one who's even close is Alena Leonova.
 

bekalc

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
I agree completely about the packaging, but I think Mishin is more than just a technical coach, and this is going to be Liza's strength leading up to Sochi. Mishin knows how to train champions, and that is what he is training her to be. She is an incredibly fierce competitor, has come from behind with messed up SPs to get on the podium more than once, because she continues to fight. If you ever watch her face in the K&C from events where she's behind Adelina, it's clear that she really wants to win, she's hungry for it in a way that I haven't seen since Tara Lipinski. I think going into Seniors, that's going to help close the gap between her and Adelina a great deal, and also mean that existing ladies won't give her much trouble. The ladies field isn't just weak right now, it's completely sapped of competitive energy.

Well nobody likes to lose. But sometimes you can want things maybe too much. Ashley strikes me as very intense but it hasn't lead to Ashley being a world beater. I think Adelina right now is a better competitor than Elizaveta. Mainly because Adelina is more consistent and seems to be very good at reigning in the emotions and delivering the technical goods. OF all the ladies in the world this year Adelina's been the most "consistently good". If Adelina continues on that path (and who knows if she'll have the drive to continue to practice get better, how puberty will work) she will be very scary to face.

I honestly don't think looking upset because you lost means anything. Or saying I want to win means anything. Tara Lipinski wasn't a great competitor because she looked like she hated losing, or had intensity when she skated. Tara Lipinski was a great competitor because Tara worked like a fiend. Reports are Tara's work ethic was second to none. I know Suzie Wynne raved about how touring with Tara, Tara would just practice and practice... Suzie said she didn't think Tara's success was because she was young and didn't feel pressure. She thinks that Tara's success was that Tara put so much work into her skating in practices that when the moment came. Tara had tons of confidence because she had worked as hard as she possibly could work, and she was ready for it.

Thats the kind of factor that none of us see, but what really determines who is going to succeed and who won't succeed in this sport. Its not about looking upset when you lose a medal. Its channeling how upset you were when you lost a medal, into practicing and working harder. Thats why when I hear Frank Carroll say that Mirai's great season made it difficult to motivate Mirai, I can't help getting red flags about Nagasu's future in this sport.

While Mirai should be proud of her fourth place finish, she should be hungry enough where fourth place just isn't enough for her.
 
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doubleflutz

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 20, 2010
Well nobody likes to lose. But sometimes you can want things maybe too much. I think Adelina right now is a better competitor than Elizaveta. Mainly because Adelina is more consistent and seems to be very good at reinging in the emotions and delivering the technical goods. OF all the ladies in the world this year Adelina's been the most "consistently good". If Adelina continues on that path (and who knows if she'll have the drive to continue to practice get better, how puberty will work) she will be very scary to face.

But everyone expected her to win, that's the thing. Delivering when you know yourself to have a two-fall margin of error over everyone else in the field is much different and much easier than delivering when you know you have to be perfect and also hope for your rival to make mistakes in order to win, which is what was going on between Adelina and Liza last season. Even Tarasova's "involvement" with Adelina says a lot. She has the political factor behind her, and I'm sure she knows that. Liza is favored as well, but not as much. Being consistent is great, but no one can be 100% consistent all the time, and lots of skaters who are really consistent at other times will end up faltering at the Olympics. Many times, it's been knowing how to skate to win when the competition made mistakes that won the OGM, or even knowing how to stake not to lose, like Evan in Vancouver. Liza has done that time and time again from a really young age. Adelina hasn't. Outside of the year when she had a really bad growth spurt, she's pretty much always been the annointed one. If she can keep it up through Sochi the way Yuna was able to, great. But in most of the post-figures era, Yuna was an anomaly, and being "the annointed one" is almost a guarantee that a skate won't win the big one.

I honestly don't think looking upset because you lost means anything. Or saying I want to win means anything. Tara Lipinski wasn't a great competitor because she looked like she hated losing, or had intensity when she skated. Tara Lipinski was a great competitor because Tara worked like a fiend. Reports are Tara's work ethic was second to none. I know Suzie Wynne raved about how touring with Tara, Tara would just practice and practice...

Well, they both have very good work ethics. But again, it's not just a matter of Liza "looking angry", it's that she already knows how to compete, how to come from behind, how to recover from her own mistakes and keep believing in herself, how to fight for everything in the program. Mishin has taught her this, and her experiences have taught her this. Liza having to chase Adelina and either skate 100% perfectly or take advantage of Adelina's mistakes in order to ever win Russian nationals is going to make her ultimately a tougher competitor.. It's a lot like Yagudin and Plushenko, in a way. Maybe if Liza starts competing the 3A or her 3LZ-3T comes back, that will change, and they'll both push each other. But right now, the rivalry is much better for Liza than for Adelina.
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
It's never good to anoint someone an OGM favorite 3 or 4 years in advance because it usually ends up not being that person when the time comes.
 

DianaSelene

Medalist
Joined
Aug 2, 2011
Because Russia and Japan are becoming closer linked diplomatically and the Russian black market will lobby the judges for a Japanese medalist (not Gold) in Sochi, meaning that if the chosen Russians falter then a Japanese person will be the most closely linked-in for a victory.

Russia and Japan will become closer and closer over the years. When World War 3 comes, it will be Russia + Japan + Turkey + Mexico against the USA + China. Those countries, along with India (who will remain neutral), will be the 7 major superpowers in the World in about 50 years when World War 3 happens.

This was told to me by a homeless "prophet"; I do not agree completely but there may be some merit there to the political forecasting.

How did we get to World War 3? We're talking about a peaceful little sport called figure skating.:cool:
 

bekalc

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
But everyone expected her to win, that's the thing. Delivering when you know yourself to have a two-fall margin of error over everyone else in the field is much different and much easier than delivering when you know you have to be perfect and also hope for your rival to make mistakes in order to win, which is what was going on between Adelina and Liza last season. Even Tarasova's "involvement" with Adelina says a lot. She has the political factor behind her, and I'm sure she knows that. Liza is favored as well, but not as much. Being consistent is great, but no one can be 100% consistent all the time, and lots of skaters who are really consistent at other times will end up faltering at the Olympics. Many times, it's been knowing how to skate to win when the competition made mistakes that won the OGM, or even knowing how to stake not to lose, like Evan in Vancouver. Liza has done that time and time again from a really young age. Adelina hasn't. Outside of the year when she had a really bad growth spurt, she's pretty much always been the annointed one. If she can keep it up through Sochi the way Yuna was able to, great. But in most of the post-figures era, Yuna was an anomaly, and being "the annointed one" is almost a guarantee that a skate won't win the big one.

Many competitors will tell you that its actually easier to be the up and comer than it is to be the "annointed one" The up and comers have nothing to lose, whereas the annointed ones have the pressure to deliver.

I heard about Elizaveta before I actually heard of Adelina. Mishin talked about how talented Elizaveta was for years. Adelina first came to attention when she won Russian Nationals at 12, beating Elizaveta. Thats when Adelina started getting attention. And I.e it was earned. At their first JGP, Adelina had much better competition than Elizaveta did. But Adelina delivered beautifully while Elizaveta won with shaky performances.

And I'd disagree that Adelina had a 2 fall lead over others. I don't think the scores actually say that at all. Adelina had to skate well in order to win the competitions she's won, and Adelina has.

Nobody starts out as "annointed ones" Annointed one status IS earned too. Kim didn't start out being annointed, she started out actually behind Asada. And eventually Kim pretty much became annointed because Mao became inconsistent and Mao's programs weren't the best. (Not to mention some of Asada's jumps left).

I like Elizaveta a lot and think she can become a real force, but I find the whole Adelina "is an annointed one" and so isn't learning how to be a competitor a bit unfair. Adelina gets more attention and hype because Adelina has out skated Elizaveta in key moments of their career so far. Which makes Adelina the better competitor-at this point in their careers.
 
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Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Country
France
How did we get to World War 3? We're talking about a peaceful little sport called figure skating.:cool:

It's not very peaceful to the ice...people ripping it up all day long with their skates. Must be torturous for those poor little frozen water molecules.
 
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