Best female skater never to have won a world title ?

FlattFan said:

Even before the SP, she was already the favorite to win the gold medal. The other two were nervous and shaky, and there she was, hitting triple lutz triple loop during practice sessions. Fumie was the national champion, but Scott was like, "watch out for Shizuka, strongest of the three sent by Japan"
If anyone's seen her practice leading up to the SP and LP, no one in their right mind would bet against her winning the gold. She was the favorite.

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You keep repeating "the favorite." How do you define favorite? (And is it really a big deal if Shizuka was considered one or not?) According to whom was she the favorite? And when did she become the favorite? It's interesting that you cite as evidence only her practice sessions at the Olympics. In general, the favorite is established before the Olympics begin, based on a combination of the Olympic season's results and last season's world championships.

Going into the 2006 Olympics, I would say the frontrunners were Irina Slutskaya and Sasha Cohen. Shizuka Arakawa had been third at Japanese nationals, did not qualify for the GPF, did not place higher than third at either of her GP events, and had finished a stunning 9th at the previous Worlds. She did not have much momentum going into the Olympics. Irina had won Europeans and was the reigning world champ. Sasha had won US Nationals and was the reigning world silver medalist.

Once the Olympics started though, Shizuka absolutely did start gaining attention with her excellent practices and her 3/3s (even a 3/3/3), which may be why the judges didn't punish her much for a rather lackluster SP, and so she was able to remain fully in contention for the gold going into the LP. Then, of course, in the LP everyone else bombed, Shizuka held it together under the pressure of being Japan's only hope for a medal, and won Japan's first Olympic gold medal in figure skating.

I like Shizuka and was thrilled that she won the OGM. She was the most-deserving, a complete skater and a credible winner. But she was not the favorite to win the gold going into the Olympics. Once the Olympics began, she impressed a lot of people quickly in a short amount of time in her practices, but still only ended up 3rd after the SP. Shizuka winning the OGM wasn't a done deal until Irina fell on the loop in the LP.

ImaginaryPogue said:

I don't see how you can land insane 3-3-3s in practice, convince watchers of your determination to win gold as well as looking like there is no doubt in your mind, win all the practices, and then go out and actually win gold without amazing mental fortitude.

Was she THE favourite? Maybe not. But she was certainly mentioned as a medal candidate (Sports Illustrated thought she would come in third).

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I agree that Shizuka had amazing mental fortitude at the 2006 Olympic games. It wasn't something she always had at competitions throughout her career, though--or else she'd have more medals and wins than she does. And I agree that she wasn't THE favorite, but she was a medal candidate and contender.

Shizuka was in no way the favorite for the 2006 OGM. A contender maybe, but the favorite, no. Maybe she had the best practices but anyone who follows skating knows that doesnt neccessarily equate to a gold medal. The bookies are really what determines who the favorites are as they have to be as objective and analytical and trained as possible, as real money is on the line. The bookies all had Slutskaya as favorite, Cohen second, and I believe most had Shizuka third (even before Kwans WD). That was the real order of favorites all along. Most of the bookies I saw had Kwan 4th, Kostner 5th, and Suguri 6th btw, but bumped Kostner and Suguri up after Kwans WD. There were some slight variations from 3-6, but nobody had Shizuka higher than 3rd favorite.

jaylee said:

entire post

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Specifically regarding Shiuzka's status as favorite, American television aired a live, daily skating discussion/highlight show directly from the competition site during practice sessions called Olympic Ice. It was a wonderful show. It was hosted by a rotating combination of Scott Hamilton (OGM), Dick Button (OGM), Sale and Pelletier (OGM) and Sandra Bezic (champion pair skater and choreographer to multiple OGMs and WCs). There was also a regular cast of guests from the skating world including Tamara Moskvina (who had a regular segment), Peter Carruthers, and many of the actual competitors (Lysacek, Weir, Cohen, Belbin and Agosto, Dubreiul and Lauzon) etc. Practice sessions were watched routinely and commented on. Hamilton, Bezic, Button, Sale and Pelletier all consistently praised Shizuka's practices, basic quality and difficulty and came to a similar conclusion about her chances as one of the clear favorites. They also noted Cohen's leg injury, less assured practices and Slutskaya's aforementioned confidence minus any substantively displayed content.

More importantly, in print, both Sports Illustrated and USA Today have issued medal predictions prior to every Olympics in every sport. SI is notoriously accurate in predicting most or all of the eventual medalists (sometimes in differing order from the final outcome) going back decades. It's scary how right they tend to be. Shizuka was listed as a predicted bronze medalitst, with Cohen 1st and Slutskaya 2nd (the actual finish of the SP). So clearly she was one of the on paper favorites.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1105857/22/index.htm


Sadly I can't find a video of the practices leading up to the SP, but I assure you, their impression of her chances was growing every day. Based in her consistency and greater planned difficulty, they thought she could win the SP at least. Of course she won the LP instead.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SauJKulmYlU&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaZ6uGw8xkg

jcoates, jaylee and pangtongfan are responding to FlattFan referring to Arakawa as "the favourite" for the OGM. That, she was not.

FlattFan said:

Even before the SP, [Arakawa] was already the favorite to win the gold medal. The other two were nervous and shaky, and there she was, hitting triple lutz triple loop during practice sessions. Fumie was the national champion, but Scott was like, "watch out for Shizuka, strongest of the three sent by Japan"
If anyone's seen her practice leading up to the SP and LP, no one in their right mind would bet against her winning the gold. She was the favorite.

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pangtongfan said:

The bookies all had Slutskaya as favorite, Cohen second, and I believe most had Shizuka third

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That is how I remember it.

Nonetheless, Arakawa no doubt had pressure on her to get a medal. She should be credited for being able to keep her head cool.

jcoates said:

So clearly she was one of the on paper favorites.

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I think this discussion has boiled down to how we define favorite. Sure, Shizuka was being predicted as a bronze medalist, is that proof that she was considered one of the "favorites" or as a contender? It's there that we'll have to agree to disagree, because I look at SI's prediction (which I do remember reading at the time) and see it as evidence that Shizuka was considered a contender for a medal but not proof that she was considered a favorite for the Olympic gold.

Sadly I can't find a video of the practices leading up to the SP, but I assure you, their impression of her chances was growing every day. Based in her consistency and greater planned difficulty, they thought she could win the SP at least. Of course she won the LP instead.

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There's no need to assure me, I remember Shizuka's 3/3/3 in practice and Scott marveling, the daily practice reports, etc. That said, this all happened after the Olympics had kicked off. And part of the process of being a favorite is your status/record/momentum going into the competition based on your previous competitions (from that season going back to the previous Worlds), and everyone wants to know if the favorites can deliver at the Olympics. Shizuka didn't have the pressure of being the favorite, however, she did have separate, enormous pressure of being a medal contender when her country had been shut out of medals so far, which is not to be underestimated, and as others have said in this thread, Shizuka deserves great respect for performing well under that.

Like I said, I was thrilled when Shizuka won. I don't believe most considered her a favorite to win the gold going into the Olympics, and I don't think it diminishes her win one bit. All that matters is that she won and deserved to win.

prettykeys said:

jcoates, jaylee and pangtongfan are responding to FlattFan referring to Arakawa as "the favourite" for the OGM. That, she was not.



That is how I remember it.

Nonetheless, Arakawa no doubt had pressure on her to get a medal. She should be credited for being able to keep her head cool.

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I am well aware of what their intent was and what FlattFann wrote. It was his/her assertion that Arakawa was THE favorite and it is jaylee and pangtongfan's assertion that she was not. My assertion is a separate one.

To clarify, my point is that by the time they reached the practice ice, they were all co-favorites. I have not declared that she was the exclusive favorite for the event. The favorite was not clear cut by the time the competition took place given Cohen's penchant for mistakes and a nagging injury, Slutskaya's clear weaknesses artistically and Arakawa's past tendency toward up and down results. Not every sporting event has a clear cut favorite. Sometimes there are multiple favorites who are evenly matched and capable of trading victories back and forth. I am asserting that the top three in Turin fell into that category. She was one of a group of favorites and therefore her victory could have reasonably been expected as a probability rather than a surprise.

BTW, all three of Slutskaya's Olympic performances and both of Cohen's are strikingly similar to their overall performance trends during the course of their careers. Irina always had a tendency toward bravado and outsized expectations for her performances. In reality, she frequently produced steady but less stellar results in the biggest moments. Cohen of course tend to brief but unsustained displays of brilliance in virtually every competition she ever entered. All of this proved true for both skaters every time the stepped on Olympic ice.

What makes Arakawa significant and sets her apart from them is the fact that she reversed her past performance trends in big moments. That speaks to her competitive spirit, work ethic, mental focus and talent which was the original point of including her in this discussion.

ETA: Jaylee, favorite status is not always or solely decided based on past competition results. On occasion, performance in practice at the competition venue or even after the event itself has begun can change or affect the favored status of an athlete. Circumstances on the ground should never be dismissed in favor of on paper speculation or past history in a competitive setting.

I said Shizuka was the favorite to win based on her condition, her training to peak at the right moment.
It's so silly to argue based on past results. Sasha and Irina can be favorite regardless of their condition at the big game? Who's naive enough to believe that?
It's all about the momentum going into the programs, amd Shizuka was.the favorite based on that. Who cares who was historically better than who a month ago? If that was the case, why bother holding the competition?
I said the moment she set her blade on the Olympics ice, she was the favorite to win.

I remember the reports from the practice sessions the same way that Flattfan does. Shizuka was on fire the moment she hit the practice ice, while Irina and Sasha couldn't land a thing. All observers were pretty much unanimous in saying, watch out, everybody, here comes Arakawa!

When I think about "the best skater without a world title" it seems to me like a description for Janet Lynn. Other than her I would say Eva Pawlik who would have won the title in 1949 under normal circumstances.

How do you mean? I'm not trying to be catty, but I don't know what happened and I think it would be more interesting discuss then the working definition of the word "favourite."

Sarah Hughes- because she is an Olympic champion.
Caryn Kadavy
Tiffany Chin
Tonya Harding
Nancy Kerrigan
Akiko Suzuki
Sasha Cohen
Elizabeth Manley

Janet Lynn, then Nancy Kerrigan, Sarah Hughes, then Sasha Cohen, Also Tonya, and kadavy...these six

dorispulaski said:

Janet Lynn 1st, Tonya Harding 2nd., Laurence Owen 3rd. are my picks.

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I second that field in that order.

Olympia said:

(Shizuka) has lived up to it since then, both as a skater and (at least insofar as I am informed as a non-Japanese speaker) as a person.

I'm not sure which interpretation of the title, a or b, to choose, but in a thread like this, it's fun to explore all aspects of the idea, because every investigation leads to more interesting ideas. So pick one or both and enjoy!

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:thumbsup:

pangtongfan said:

The only year Bonaly was possibly robbed was 93. She most definitely did not deserve to win in 94. She made atleast 2 major jump errors and her jumps were her only real strength. Sato should have won by a much bigger margin than she did, and only didnt since Bonaly had a bigger name.

Sarah Hughes was not a World Champion caliber skater (not an Olympic either of course, her Oly Gold was one of the biggest flukes of all time). The only year of the last 20 years I can think of where the Hughes of 2001-2002 could have won Worlds is this year where Miki Ando won with such mediocre performances.

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I agree....sorry.