LADIES LONG PROGRAM Thread

museksk8r · Oct 23, 2011

LeCygne said:
I think Carolina's jump content hurt her. She got great GOE's for nearly everything she did, but she had a base value of 49.02 while Alissa had a base value of 49.03 WITH two downgrades, an underrotation, and an edge call. That's what you get for doing a flip and a loop while your competitor attempted two lutzes, two loops, and a flip.

Carolina's low spin levels in the LP is what hurt her the most. She had two Level 1 spins. She should easily be capable of making those two last spins a Level 3 or 4. The gold would have easily been her's at Skate America if she had done what she is capable of.

Violet Bliss · Oct 23, 2011

skatinginbc said:
I was told that data shows PCSs get affected by TES. If Alissa's PCS is already higher than Carolina's now, wait and see even higher PCS margin when she does not have those jumping errors.

I figure I was the one who "told" you that so let me qualify it. It's generally true PCS reflects TES to an extent for each individual skater. But PCS also stays much more consistant than TES, resulting in PCS "saving" a good skater having a bad TES day. Also, there is a definitive ceiling for PCS, and judges likely become hesitent approaching it. This only affect someone like Patrick Chan, however, so he can shoot his TES much higher without much more increase in PCS simply because there is not much room left.

In Alissa's case, she has a big discrepency between her TES and PCS today. While her TES is way below her PB, her PCS shot through her previous record. This is not a normal pattern because usually the two scores are similar for her. Per normal, she should have had a relatively low PCS today. She has not set a new PCS base for the rest of the season. IOW, it's unlikely her PCS will increase unless she achieves TES close to or above her PB, not just any TES higher than today's.

coolboogie22 · Oct 23, 2011

I don't understand why Viktoria HELGESSON placed 3rd.

For me the true winner of the bronze medal is Joelle Forte. In my opinion, she was robbed and undermark both in the SP and LP

prettykeys · Oct 23, 2011

I just got home and I'm about to watch YouTube clips! NikaQuest posted these two:

Alissa Czisny LP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wAUVq7jEiCI

Carolina Kostner LP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-L-TNWnSSg4

Violet Bliss · Oct 23, 2011

I think the audio in Carolina's video is not in sync, again. It's behind the visual.

burntBREAD · Oct 23, 2011

coolboogie22 said:
I don't understand why Viktoria HELGESSON placed 3rd.

For me the true winner of the bronze medal is Joelle Forte. In my opinion, she was robbed and undermark both in the SP and LP

Joelle has a propensity to underrotate jumps and she doesn't skate very quickly.

skatinginbc · Oct 23, 2011

SkateFiguring said:
I figure I was the one who "told" you that so let me qualify it. It's generally true PCS reflects TES to an extent for each individual skater. But PCS also stays much more consistant than TES, resulting in PCS "saving" a good skater having a bad TES day. Also, there is a definitive ceiling for PCS, and judges likely become hesitent approaching it. This only affect someone like Patrick Chan, however, so he can shoot his TES much higher without much more increase in PCS simply because there is not much room left.

In Alissa's case, she has a big discrepency between her TES and PCS today. While her TES is way below her PB, her PCS shot through her previous record. This is not a normal pattern because usually the two scores are similar for her. Per normal, she should have had a relatively low PCS today. She has not set a new PCS base for the rest of the season. IOW, it's unlikely her PCS will increase unless she achieves TES close to or above her PB, not just any TES higher than today's.

Hm, so it is not always true that PCS gets affected by TES. In some cases, TES and PCS can go the opposite way like Alissa's case or maybe someone who actually made improvement in his/her PCS.

I haven't watched her LP yet. Is there any indication that she actually improves since her last showing? Skating skills? Speed? anything?

Note: I just watched it. I think her jumping mistakes were rather disruptive and should have been reflected in her PCS. I cannot tell if there was any improvement in speed through the video. I could be wrong but I guess she must have included more transitions than she had before because I found her setup for jumps was not as painfully long as usual. Despite her mistakes, she had a new "calmness" (or command on ice) about her.

prettykeys · Oct 23, 2011

SkateFiguring said:
I think the audio in Carolina's video is not in sync, again. It's behind the visual.

Bah, you're right, it's very delayed. I can't find another video.

Violet Bliss · Oct 23, 2011

skatinginbc said:
Hm, so it is not always true that PCS gets affected by TES. In some cases, TES and PCS can go the opposite way like Alissa's case or maybe someone who actually made improvement in his/her PCS.

I haven't watched her LP yet. Is there any indication that she actually improves since her last showing? Skating skills? Speed? anything?

You are splitting hair with me. "Data" only gives a general picture, and can be used to project a likely outcome, but the actual outcome will be the reality. However, there is an usual tendency for deviations to return to the mean/norm, so an exceptional case like Czisny's today cannot be used as a standard or to predict future outcomes. It however raises questions and invite scrutiny for justification.

It's for the same reason I don't agree you could use one performance of Kozuka to determine his winning chances against Chan like you did. You can use data from more events over a whole season to project such chances but then again, whatever happens on the day will be the reality. Ice is slippery, right? There are also other slippery factors.

icellist · Oct 23, 2011

coolboogie22 said:
I don't understand why Viktoria HELGESSON placed 3rd.

For me the true winner of the bronze medal is Joelle Forte. In my opinion, she was robbed and undermark both in the SP and LP

coolboogie22, i have to agree with you. the tech panel was very tentative in giving any positive GOEs to Joelle in the SP. Joelle was way undermarked in PCS too. Her skating skills are pretty good. I know videos don't convey speed well but she was rather fast compared to either Helgesson. That should have garnered her higher SS. She added a decent amount of transitions. Her choreography was better than Ksenia's (IMO). Her performance/execution should always be high because you can really see the joy of her skating, especially since this is her GP debut and she is the oldest of the competitors. I don't have slo-mo cam but her combination and 3S in the free-skate dont look underrotated. Actually if I was a judge, the 3S would not have been underrotated and would've garnered positive GOEs, I think it's one of her best jumps and she does it better than most competitors. Good height, take-off position, and air-position. I would probalby have given her 3 more points for PCS in the SP, 5 more points for PCS in the LP, and 2 more points for TES in the LP. So her score would have been 149, enough to over take Viktoria for the bronze.

But alas, we are only spectators and not actual judges. Maybe they should have random audience members score Skaters on performance/execution and interpretation.

jenaj · Oct 23, 2011

LeCygne said:
I think Carolina's jump content hurt her. She got great GOE's for nearly everything she did, but she had a base value of 49.02 while Alissa had a base value of 49.03 WITH two downgrades, an underrotation, and an edge call. That's what you get for doing a flip and a loop while your competitor attempted two lutzes, two loops, and a flip. Carolina still had higher TES because of those GOE's, but Alissa won slightly on PCS. Not enough to win the FS though, which made sense. Combined with the SP scores, it's not a surpring result when you think about it.

The base values were virtually identical. What hurt Carolina was her spins--they were only level one. She lost about 4 points to Alissa there and about a point in PCS. That was enough to give Alissa the win, because Alissa was ahead by 4 points in the short.

Violet Bliss · Oct 23, 2011

icellist, were you there to observe Joelle's speed live?

I think you have the tech panel's and the judges' roles somewhat confused. Tech panel does not give GOE and judges don't decide on UR. TP calls the qualification of the elements, e.g. UR, edge calls, spin and step levels. And judges give GOE according to their perception of the quality of executions of the elements.

Why would you trust a random audience member more than the judges?

It is interesting someone posted s/he was there when Dornbush did his 3A right in front of him/her and s/he didn't think it was URed at all. On CBC, Kurt called the UR before the landing of the jump.

shine · Oct 23, 2011

skfan said:
ymmv. to me AC's jumps in the short were just as skittish as kostner, she lacked the speed, the spark, the range of expression of kostner. you can say well, that's alissa, the soft lyrical style, but to me she's too stiff to be a successful soft, and people celebrate her not falling as if that in itself equals greatness. i thought her jumps were very borderline. VERY. where's the reward for trying a triple-triple when it doesn't suit your agenda?

i think you fell for the beautiful smile bonus--while i on the other hand found her grin too plastic to be charming.

anyway, kostner's long is what makes this competition worth watching for me. worth enduring all the years of galling judging, to watch a piece of interesting music suitably cut, a skater bring some life to interesting choreography.

THIS. I totally agree.

icellist · Oct 23, 2011

SkateFiguring, I was very hesitant to post my thoughts but this is a public forum, so I thought it wouldn't hurt. No, I did not observe joelle's speed live but I have watched quite a few videos of Joelle skating (again, I apologize for the lack of merit of my evidence) and she skates with relatively good speed. I mostly understand the tech panel and judges roles. Sorry if I was not clear, but from the camera of the videos perspective I saw now UR call (tech panel), and the quality of the jump, mainly the 3S, was very impressive (judging panel). I didn't read the ISU's descriptions of performance/execution and interpretation but from definition, those terms are rather universally artistic. An audience's perspective that is not disturbed such as judges also have to give GOE and try to look at the artistic aspect of the skating. Actually, maybe my augmented PCS is overexaggerated, but i am still making a point that I think that joelle should have beaten Viktoria and medaled after splat fests in both the SP and LP. and I apologize again for the lack of merit of my evidence (only video clips, no live observation)

LeCygne · Oct 24, 2011

jenaj said:
The base values were virtually identical. What hurt Carolina was her spins--they were only level one. She lost about 4 points to Alissa there and about a point in PCS. That was enough to give Alissa the win, because Alissa was ahead by 4 points in the short.

My point was that had Carolina had the technical content typical of ladies at the top level, she could've afforded small mistakes or low levels on her other elements. I think it's interesting that she chose to water her content down and go for clean programs instead, which so far looks like a good decision, but it just means that she'll need to pay more attention to the non-jump elements.

Violet Bliss · Oct 24, 2011

Icellist, you shouldn't apologize for posting your thoughts. I only asked if you were there because you said Joelle's speed didn't show in video, which I know is usually the case.

I also asked why you would want a random person to be a judge because it is an important responsibility and even trained and experienced judges cannot please everyone. What would a random person go by and why would such person be assumed to represent other viewers' very diverse opinions?

I'm just curious, not hostile!

icellist · Oct 24, 2011

sorry if my writing seemed really hostile. it's just that i really am sorry for not having hard evidence. and i'm sleep deprived studying for midterms and watch figure skating so my writing doesn't completely convey my feelings accurately :laugh:

I also thought about audience members deciding those two aspects of PCS. i guess it's when they enter the arena, there should be a section for die-hard figure skating fans with some remote clickers :biggrin:

bekalc · Oct 24, 2011

LeCygne said:
My point was that had Carolina had the technical content typical of ladies at the top level, she could've afforded small mistakes or low levels on her other elements. I think it's interesting that she chose to water her content down and go for clean programs instead, which so far looks like a good decision, but it just means that she'll need to pay more attention to the non-jump elements.

Perhaps but at the end of the day Kostner was credited with more triples than Alissa. Alissa's jumps while are improved are still very questionable. Against the likes of an Ando, Kostner couldn't get away this kind of technical content, but against Alissa she can because Alissa herself doesn't always execute her jumps well.

Olympia · Oct 24, 2011

I am so happy for both Kostner and Czisny! I watched both tapes. (Aside: Does Kostner skate the Dvorak in the short program? Because this certainly wasn't Dvorak, or a cello! I guess I was confused. In any case, she does an exquisite job with the Mozart. The music suits her beautifully.)

Much as I love Czisny, I do see what many of you are referring to about her jumps. She doesn't look secure in most of them, and she doesn't have that lovely flow that people like Michelle, Kostner when she's on, Mao, and YuNa have. But she does have lovely flow in everything else. The way she uses her upper body and her arms to define the music is delightful, and her spins are out of this world. At one point she was even echoing the rhythm of the Sibelius in her spin. How does she control centrifugal force like that? I didn't think it was humanly possible. As for the smile bonus, she certainly gives one, but then so does the equally beautiful Kostner, so it's even odds. Since we're on aesthetics, I love both their costumes. Simple, elegant, graceful, not gaudy. Could one of them lend Mao Asada their designer?

I'm sure these two ladies have received a boost of confidence as a result of their performances here. I hope they steady out even more and do their best ever in Worlds this year.

burntBREAD · Oct 24, 2011

Kostner skated to a Shostakovich Trio in her SP (it happens to be one of my favorite pieces of music

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LADIES LONG PROGRAM Thread

museksk8r

Violet Bliss

coolboogie22

Match Penalty

prettykeys

Violet Bliss

burntBREAD

skatinginbc

prettykeys

Violet Bliss

icellist

jenaj

Violet Bliss

shine

icellist

LeCygne

Violet Bliss

icellist

bekalc

Olympia

burntBREAD

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