How can Kozuka compete with Chan On PCS?

Some people questioned how Kozuka can be better than Chan on PCS, and whether or not Kozuka can compete with Chan in this department? I thought it's interesting to take a closer look on both skaters from this perspective and hear all your thoughts. Here is what I think (I'm definitely no expert on this matter) :

To put aside the incomparason between the competitions, if both skaters have had multiple falls or if both skaters have skated clean, I think the judges would definitely give the edge to Chan in SS but Kozuka is not far behind. Chan has been hailed as to have an extraordinary skating skills ever since he's jumped onto senior scene. And he probably does, with a few top skaters chasing him closely.

I blindly believe that Nichol's program is the best in TR without studying the details on both skaters' this year's programs. So believe Kozuka can be equal but can't be better.

On PE, I can see, at least so far, a clear winner is Chan. Of course, it depends on the day and the moment. So it could change. This is the area I think that Kozuka could realistically surpass Chan.

IN is a solid one that Kozuka cannot compete with Chan. Kozuka's this music choice and his inadequacy on dancing abilities in such demanding music can't compete with Chan's Aranjuez which has less demand on such abilities.

CH is the same, can't compete with Chan. Again, I think Kozuka's music is more abstract, more difficult to express by body movements which has dragged him down on IN and CH.

With the program they both have gotten for this year, I'd expect a clean Kozuka beat an unclean Chan. I'm rooting for Chan on every competition he enters this year. Love his LP! Not thrilled by his SP from last year though.

Well, when I watch Kozuka skate like this, I see no reason why he can't compete with ANYONE!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Maes4l7GuBE&feature=youtu.be

I blindly believe that Nichol's program is the best in TR without studying the details on both skaters' this year's programs. So believe Kozuka can be equal but can't be better.

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Ugh? How can you blindly believe anything? A lot of people who have actually seen Chan and Kozuka's short program actually think Kozuka DOES have harder choregraphy/transitions in his short. Lets remember Chan's short is a holdover, Kozuka isn't. Kozuka/his team have seen the program, have analyazed and could have quit easily decided to one up on transitions in order to win. Really not hard. Kozuka has the skating skills to do so.

chloepoco said:

Well, when I watch Kozuka skate like this, I see no reason why he can't compete with ANYONE!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Maes4l7GuBE&feature=youtu.be

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Anyone?!

He can't compete with this one

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Kb3bkj3w-g&feature=results_main&playnext=1&list=PL406314D43D84FA74

Seriously, I don't really like Patrick Chan's Ex programs I've seen so far. But he's got pretty good competition programs.

Under CoP scoring, no one can compete with Mr. Happy Feet (Patrick Chan) in skating skills and transitions.

Well, they might have to improve their existing skating skills and transitions to a higher level to compete with Chan, but if anyone is close enough to have a realistic shot at doing so, Kozuka does.

Kozuka can compete with Chan when he learns to look up when he skates, all of the time. He has a dreadful habit of looking down at the ice which implies a lack of confidence and affects his PCA scores. Most skaters have broken this habit in childhood. Kozuka has made progress on this, because he used to look down at the ice all of the time. We first noticed this at 4CC in Vancouver because he looked up into the audience in his exhibition skate and it made an enormous difference in his performance. Last year he really started looking up and out during his skating and his scores improved greatly, but he's not completely there yet.

I noticed how beautifully his LP is choreographed to the highlights in the music. Once Kozuka is more comfortable with the choreography and starts looking up more and projecting into the audience, his PCS will improve too.

bekalc said:

Ugh? How can you blindly believe anything? A lot of people who have actually seen Chan and Kozuka's short program actually think Kozuka DOES have harder choregraphy/transitions in his short. .

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If you would've watched Kozuka's SP on CBC, where Kurt Browning and Lori Nichol were commenting, they were all "Ahh" " Oh" in admiration for Taka's footwork. He does the very difficult look easy

As fun as it is, this is actually a great format for head to head comparisons of some elements. I think Kozuka and Chan are about equal in the Spread Eagle and Chan conceded on the spiral before he began while Arakawa has a leg up over Taka, Patrick, and Dai, so to speak!

Thanks for bringing the great ex numbers by Taka and Jeremy. They however show how both can perform so well in the galas but are not the strongest competitors, especially Jeremy. A renowned musician and teacher I knew sometimes asked hiring symphony orchestras to take in his best students on his words, explaining they would blow the auditions despite their brilliance. Too bad for some that's not how it works in skating. One needs to compete well before the opportunities to showcase performing talents or to have a professional career, not that I'm concerned about Taka or Jeremy's prospects.

Kozuka can clearly compete with Chan in the PCS department but it's going to be really difficult for him to ever match or even surpass him in any category of the PCS (scorewise).

We have seen him skate a technically superior LP at the last Worlds (TES wise, of course), yet his PCS trailed Chan's by almost 10 points.

What he needs to do, is to work on his reputation. Two things are of paramount importance if he ever wants to catch up on Chan:

1. He needs to be really really consistent on his performances for about 1 or 2 years. Whilst being absolutely clean, he needs his TES to be higher than Chan's consistently and he might need to include more difficult content. That's going to be difficult with his success rate on quads alone. And Chan's content is so difficult already that it can't realistically be bettered without including 3 quads or something like that.

2. He needs to be the clear Japanese number one skater. It really hurts internationally, if you are from a country with a very strong competition. The judges have perceived Kozuka for some time now as Japanese number 2 or 3. He may have surpassed Oda by now, but with Takahashi and up and coming Hanyu, it's very difficult to be convincingly dominant.

I can't buy the reputation stuff. Kozuka had beaten all his compatriats internationally before he became the Japanese Champion and he proceeded to beat them at Worlds. He did it because he was better. Simple as that.

Patrick came in 9th at his first Worlds as the Canadian Champion but it was Canada's 2nd, Jeff Buttle, who won the event to become the World Champ.

No on is recognizing Kozuka as Japan's #1. Takahashi is declining and Hanyu is rising fast. The PCS is very ambiguous and subjective matter. I think two very important factors of the PCS are past records and future expectations. We can call them "reputations". Kozuka is undoubtedly inferior to Chan in both aspects and the gap will widen even further in future (because Chan is younger and more talented than Kozuka). Also Hanyu's presence will seriously affect Kozuka's reputations. It's waste of time and resources to invest on a 22(23) y.o. man who has no chance to land the quad in the SP. I think it will be the prerequisite to skate in the final flight of Sochi Olympics. There are only two years left. Hanyu is the successor to Takahashi, not Kozuka. When Takahashi was 22 y.o., he could land 4toe three out of four times in competitions. Kozuka can't even rotate four times in the air at the peak period of men's physical strength. If the JSF seriously wants a medal at Sochi, they must start building "reputations" for Hanyu.

NMURA, do you think if I went back and explored your previous posts I'd find one that says that Kozuka has no chance of landing a quad ever? I'm pretty sure I would. And yet he did.

I also think it's a little early to be crowing Hanyu Takahashi's successor, especially since Kozuka did just win a silver medal at worlds in a tumultuous season

I'd better say "no chance to land the quad consistently in the SP".

You cannot gamble in the SP. Kozuka has landed a 4T with +GOE after the 22nd or 23rd attempts since 2008. When will be the next? More realistically, Kozuka (and Nobuo Sato) are counting on gaining 8 points or so with a flawed 4T. Such an expedience will not win the judges' respect. Anyway, he can't afford to disgrace himself when he must face Hanyu in a competition. Probably NHK trophy will be his last chance to prove that he can "land a quad". The quad is the biggest obstacle to raise Kozuka's PCS, since his inferior jumping abilities can't persuade the judges and the federation to recognize Kozuka as Japan's #1.

Yes, Kozuka can compete with Chan. Kozuka's LP this year is lovely...but I do wish there was a little more bravado to his personality because he does make himself a little too small with his overly gentle performances. Some contrast would make him look grander and more impressive.

NMURA said:

No on is recognizing Kozuka as Japan's #1.

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The quad is the biggest obstacle to raise Kozuka's PCS, since his inferior jumping abilities can't persuade the judges and the federation to recognize Kozuka as Japan's #1.

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You are the one who insist that Kozuka is not Japan's #1 whereas both national and international judges have deemed him the best Japanese Men skater whenever he competed against other Japanese Men last season, except for the 4CC. And he did it again this season at JO. Just facts, not opinions.

Kozuka is recognized as one of the world's best skaters, as reflected in his PCS consistently, with or without quad. Here we are only discussing how he can compete with the current World's #1, Patrick Chan.

Hanyu is extremely talented and has got the big jumps in practice. We don't know how successful his quads will be in the big competitions. Nonetheless, we are talking about PCS here and he is not in the league of Kozuka by far. He rushes around from trick to trick, often bent over to gain speed, all in all still Juniorish compared to the top guys. Give him time. He is not ready for the crown yet, Japanese or World's, though he's likely a contender by Sochi.

Right now, Kozuka is the World's Silver Medalist and the top Japanese Man though Takahashi and Oda would want to challenge that. May the best man win but I give the advantage to Kozuka.

Kozuka's got an excellent reputation, far from any disgrace. That's not what he should focus on. That's not a winner's mindset and it wouldn't help him.

Does Kozuka command the ice like Chan does? Just wondering.

jettasian said:

Does Kozuka command the ice like Chan does? Just wondering.

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IMO, neither of them command the ice nearly as much as they could, like Takahashi, Yagudin, or even Plushenko (who I am not a fan of at all, but he definitely had that "LOOK AT ME" thing that made you pay attention). HOWEVER, you have to note that Chan and Kozuka both have very different styles from the bravado of the three aforementioned, and so it's harder to know, particularly when we're not in the arena. They have the best skating skills and smoothness of all men though, which sets up an excellent base for magical expression.

Answering the question, though, I think Chan has an extra projection that Kozuka kind of lacks- like prettykeys says, it's almost too gentle. It's beautiful to watch but it's hard to connect to, particularly through a television. His programs this year are both excellent setups for magical performances (love how he chose and cut his own music). In fact, both their LPs this year are good vehicles for both skaters, so I hope they take advantage! (Not sure about Chan's SP, because he already milked it for all it's worth last year at Worlds, maybe a rechoreograph?)

Of course, something as subjective as a perception of someone's command of your attention changes from person to person, but those were my thoughts.

SkateFiguring said:

Nonetheless, we are talking about PCS here and he is not in the league of Kozuka by far.

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We can compare the PCS of relevant skaters.

Hanyu Nebelhorn FS 73.22

Brezina Nebelhorn FS 71.48
Brezina SA FS 73.42

Kozuka Japan Open FS 73.88 (10 points lower than 3 fall Chan)
Kozuka SA FS 74.86

How can you say Kozuka is much sperior in the PCS department? At least the judges are not giving much credit to the "world silver". Kozuka is in the same league with Hanyu and Brezina at this point, and he will be overtaken in near future (GPF for the earliest).

1. I wonder if skating to inward pieces of music really helps Kozuka. Chan's PCS didn't really skyrocket until POTO - indeed, there were grumblings on Golden Skate that he was undermarked PCS wise before hand. Skaters that chose those exciting, enthusiastic pieces of music tended to see their PCS increase compared to those that don't (Brian Joubert vs Jeremy Abbott at NHK, for example). Indeed, when I compare Chan's Nationals LP to POTO and Kozuka's Worlds LP (the skaters best LPs of the season), the former with it's easily recognizable emotional cues strikes me as the more engaging skate.

2. It's not quite fair to link TES with PCS, though both tend to increase together. The reason is, frankly, the skates that can score higher TES tend to be the skater's best skates in general. This isn't always true, of course, but that's with skaters who have glaring defaults (like van der Perren). Of Chan's five skates last season, his Nationals performance was the best, and it had the highest score (and while you can't compare scores from national events, if he had skated like that internationally, I think that would be his highest scoring LP anyway).

3. Warhorses become warhorses for a reason. It's not just laziness on the part of the judges or lack of imagination. Kozuka tends to avoid warhorses - "Inner Urge," "Nausicaa" and "Bold as Love" are actually pretty off-the-beaten path choices. So when you don't have the music providing some of the heft for you, you have to do it yourself. I don't think Kozuka has the confidence really to pull that off.

From the Japan Open broadcast

Kurt Browning: "I keep telling you, what are you, what are you... (in English)"
Takahiko Kozuka: "Rock Star"
Kurt Browning: "Rock Star! So if he believes he will be bigger on the ice."

I basically think that's true. Skaters like Plushenko or Joubert have it in spades. I see it in skaters like Amodio and even Brezina. It's that projection. That utter command knowing you belong on the ice, regardless of how well you do. Interior skaters have to work harder to get that because it's easy for interior to be read as small, when that's not always the case (I consider Abbott an interior skater, but find his 2010 Nationals performance masterful cases of projection). I think Chan's had to work on it and has done so quite successfully these past two seasons.

4. To be honest, I think Chan is the better skater (particularly in SS and transitions) and has the better program, so I don't see Kozuka catching him this year.