Predictions

I meant to actually try my hand at predicting results for Cup of China,
but got distracted after Skate Canada and missed my chance...
Sooo I know it's way early, but I wanted to make sure I did it while it's on
my mind.

Predictions, anyone?

http://www.isuresults.com/events/fsevent00011299.htm

It might help for people to know who is competing at NHK this week

Men
1 Tomas VERNER
2 Samuel CONTESTI
3 Takahiko KOZUKA
4 Tatsuki MACHIDA
5 Daisuke TAKAHASHI
6 Konstantin MENSHOV
7 Armin MAHBANOOZADEH
8 Ross MINER
9 Brandon MROZ

Ladies
1 Cynthia PHANEUF
2 Kiira KORPI
3 Mae Berenice MEITE
4 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI
5 Mao ASADA
6 Shoko ISHIKAWA
7 Akiko SUZUKI
8 Alena LEONOVA
9 Ashley WAGNER
10 Agnes ZAWADZKI

Pairs
1 Natasha PURICH / Raymond SCHULTZ
2 Aliona SAVCHENKO / Robin SZOLKOWY
3 Stefania BERTON / Ondrej HOTAREK
4 Narumi TAKAHASHI / Mervin TRAN
5 Lubov ILIUSHECHKINA / Nodari MAISURADZE
6 Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV
7 Marissa CASTELLI / Simon SHNAPIR
8 Caydee DENNEY / John COUGHLIN

Ice Dance
1 Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM
2 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE
3 Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI
4 Lorenza ALESSANDRINI / Simone VATURI
5 Cathy REED / Chris REED
6 Elena ILINYKH / Nikita KATSALAPOV
7 Lynn KRIENGKRAIRUT / Logan GIULIETTI-SCHMITT
8 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI

Sorry. I meant to edit after I first posted, but it's a bit hard to cut and paste on my iPod.
Thanks for posting the entries.

aemeraldrainc said:

Sorry. I meant to edit after I first posted, but it's a bit hard to cut and paste on my iPod.
Thanks for posting the entries.

Click to expand...

naw that's cool.
For ladies I want to see Mao skate a clean program. I don't care if she wins or not. I just want her to go clean even if that means water down tech content.
1. Akiko
2. Wagner
3. Leonova

I think the Japanese men have a relatively easy field that they are up against. As long as Takahashi and Kozuka don't mess up too bad they will podium.
1. Takahashi
2. Kozuka
3. Verner

MEN
1. Kozuka
2. Takahashi
3. Verner
4. Mroz
5. Miner

LADIES
1. Suzuki
2. Asada (a complete question mark, her training has not been as publicized as usual)
3. Zawadzki
4. Korpi
5. Wagner

PAIRS
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov
3. Takahashi/Tran
4. Iliushechkina/Maisuradze
5. Denney/Coughlin

DANCE
1/2. Shibutanis or W/P (if the Shibutanis get low levels again they'll definitely be behind a clean W/P)
3. Lynn/Logan (predicting an upset! They've scored higher than both P/I and Z/G this season, shame they don't have two GPs; I/K seem to be struggling a bit)
4. I/K
5. Z/G or P/I

1. Takahiko Kozuka
2. Daisuke Takahashi
3. Tomas Verner
4. Samuel Contesti
5-7. the Americans in whatever order
8. Konstantin Menshov
9. Tatsuki Machida


1. Mao Asada
2. Akiko Suzuki
3. Either Wagner or Agnes
4. Wagner or Agnes
5. Elene Gedevanishvili
6. Kiira Korpi
7. Alena Leonova
8. Cynthia Phaneuf
9. Mae Berenice Meite
10. Shoko Ishikawa

I'll do pairs/ice dance next.

FTnoona said:

naw that's cool.
For ladies I want to see Mao skate a clean program. I don't care if she wins or not. I just want her to go clean even if that means water down tech content.
1. Akiko
2. Wagner
3. Leonova

I think the Japanese men have a relatively easy field that they are up against. As long as Takahashi and Kozuka don't mess up too bad they will podium.
1. Takahashi
2. Kozuka
3. Verner

Click to expand...

And I'm going to be completely optimistic and maybe unrealistic and say Asada wins it.
But I wouldn't mind if Akiko does instead.

I agree with your men's result. Either Kozuka or Takahashi have it in the bag.

Here are mine....

Ladies
1.Agnes Zawadzki
2.Akiko Suzuki
3.Ashley Wagner
4.Mao Asada
5.Kiira Korpi
6.Elene Gedevanishvili
7.Mae Berenice Meite
8.Alena Leonova
9.Cynthia Phaneuf
10.Shoko Ishikawa

Men
1.Takahiko Kozuka
2.Brandon Mroz
3.Daisuke Takahashi
4.Tomas Verner
5.Armin Mahbanoozadeh
6.Ross Miner
7.Tatsuki Machida
8.Konstantin Menshov
9.Samuel Contesti

Pairs
1.Kavaguti/Smirnov
2.Savchenko/Szolkowy
3.Iliusheckina/Maisuradze
4.Takahashi/Tran
5.Castelli/Shnapir
6.Denney/Coughlin
7.Berton/Hotarek
8.Purich/Shultz

Dance
1.Weaver/Poje
2.Shibutani/Shibutani
3.Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Shmitt (must suck to be an announcer when theyre on,lol)
4.Ilinykh/Katsalapov
5.Paul/Islam
6.Zhiganshina/Gazsi
7.Reed/Reed
8.Alessandrini/Vaturi

Men
1.Takahiko Kozuka
2.Tomas Verner
3.Brandon Mroz
4.Daisuke Takahashi
5.Armin Mahbanoozadeh
6.Ross Miner
7.Samuel Contesti
8.Tatsuki Machida
9.Konstantin Menshov

Ladies
1. Akiko Suzuki
2. Mao Asada
3. Agnes Zawadzki
4. Ashley Wagner
5. Kiira Korpi
6. Alena Leonova
7. Elene Gedevanishvili
8. Cynthia Phaneuf
9. Mae Berenice Meite
10. Shoko Ishikawa

Men
Takahashi
Mroz
Verner

Does Kozuka go for a 4T(<) in the SP? I think he does and that will assure Takahashi's win. I'm more interested in Mroz's quad lutz attempt.

Ladies
Asada
Suzuki
Leonova

Foreign ladies have never scored higher than 165 points at NHK trophy. The winner will be Asada or Suzuki. In past, Asada has no bad performance at the same competitions with Suzuki and never lost to her. The biggest question is whether Suzuki can handle her nerves. Past records show that she performs well only when there is not much pressure.

Pair
S / S
K / S
T / T

Takahashi/Tran should be placed two notches above where they actually deserve.

Ladies
1. Akiko
2. Ashley
3. Kiira

I don't know what to expect from Mao, but I'm really hoping she does well!

Men
1. Daisuke
2. Takahiko
3. Tomás

Pairs
1. Savchenko & Szolkowy
2. Takahashi & Tran
3. Kavaguti & Smirnov

Ice Dance
1. Weaver & Poje
2. The Shibutanis
3. Ilinykh & Katsalapov

Ladies
1. Mao
2. Akiko
3. Ashley

Men
1. Daisuke
2. Takahiko
3. Tomás

Pairs
1. Savchenko & Szolkowy
2. Kavaguti & Smirnov
3. Takahashi & Tran

Ice Dance
1. The Shibutanis
2. Weaver & Poje
3. Ilinykh & Katsalapov

So Adrian Schultheiss has withdrawn because of injury practicing at Coupe de Nice.

Sadly, due to back injury, Adrian will not be competing at the NHK Trophy, which will be held in Sapporo, Japan from 11th to 13th November. Adrian had an X-ray at a hospital a few days ago, and it has turned out that he has a spinal disc herniation, which means he has to rest his back for two weeks, avoiding movements such as forward bending that can cause further pain. At the moment Adrian is allowed to walk and just slide around on the ice, and he will see a doctor again for a follow-up in two weeks.

Click to expand...

Sad for him. This guy doesn't need more troubles.

I wish there could be a substitute. Who is next in turn? What is the time limit?
Just eight men in China and now nine in Japan so far.

Excited to see what Asada and Verner will do this season!

Men:
Menshov
Kozuka
Verner

Ladies:
Suzuki
Wagner
Leonova

Pairs:
Savchenko/Szolkowy
Kavaguti/Smirnov
Takahashi/Tran

burntBREAD said:

Asada (a complete question mark, her training has not been as publicized as usual)

Click to expand...

Some clips from Mao's practice sessions (recently aired but filmed most likely in September):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2dfoMDZh30
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3nD0eIIlG8

Mao and coach Sato say that right now their goal is to gradually improve Mao's speed (aiming for Sochi) and master 3Lz.

For those who missed it earlier, a fan montage of Mao's practice clips posted in September: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngNnV_a-420

Okami said:

Some clips from Mao's practice sessions (recently aired but filmed most likely in September):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2dfoMDZh30
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3nD0eIIlG8

Mao and coach Sato say that right now their goal is to gradually improve Mao's speed (aiming for Sochi) and master 3Lz.

For those who missed it earlier, a fan montage of Mao's practice clips posted in September: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngNnV_a-420

Click to expand...

Thank you! Hope she does well this season

Edit: Is that Ai Sugiyama? (retired tennis player)

burntBREAD said:

Edit: Is that Ai Sugiyama? (retired tennis player)

Click to expand...

Yes, she's hosting SPORTS DominGo (the sports news program from which the clip was taken) together with Hiroyasu Shimizu (retired speed skater) and Miyuki Takahashi (retired volleyball player).

This one should be exciting!

Men
1. Takahashi
2. Kozuka
3. Mroz
4. Verner
5. Miner
6. Contesti
7. Menshov
8. Mahbanoozadeh
9. Machida

Takahashi and Kozuka should easily podium if they are remotely close to being clean. Their PCS marks should dominate the others. I chose Takahashi for the win only because I really like his programs this season. I wanted to chose Verner for bronze, but there has been one "surprise" men's medalist who jumped their way to the podium in the past three events, so I went with Mroz. He did well on the GP circuit last year, too. Miner and Contesti should do better here, as long as they don't blow the short program again. Of the last three, I think Mahbanoozadeh is the most talented, but his programs are just awful this year imho.

Ladies
1. Suzuki
2. Asada
3. Zawadski
4. Korpi
5. Gedevanishvili
6. Wagner
7. Leonova
8. Phaneuf
9. Meite
10. Ishikawa

Again, I think the two top Japanese should medal if they are close to clean. That is a rather big IF as far as Asada goes, but I think she'll start this season off much better than last. Zawadski finally got it together at the end of last season and I expect her to do quite well this year. Korpi and Gedevanishvili are too inconsistent and lack the difficult jumps to medal here, and the judges will never put Ashley ahead if others go clean (sadly). I thought that both Leonova and Phaneuf were a mess in Canada, and Meite and especially Ishikawa are wildcards, but I think a 9th and 10th place finish are likely.

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov
3. Denney/Coughlin
4. Takahashi/Tran
5. Iliushechkina/Maisuradze
6. Berton/Hotarek
7. Castelli/Shnapir
8. Purich/Schultz

This event, like last week, could go many ways. I'm sure S/S won't take risks this time around, and that should give them the win as long as they are clean. I actually like K/S's LP more, but I think they'll be a little tired after back to back events. D/C skated better at their first event than T/T or I/M, and even though their PCS will certainly go down outside of the U.S, they have a shot to grab the bronze if the other two falter (and I think they will). The other three will compete amongst themselves for 6th.

Dance
1. Weaver/Poje
2. Shibutanis
3. Kriengkrairut/Giulietti-Schmitt
4. Ilinykh/Katsalapov
5. Zhiganshina/Gazsi
6. Paul/Islam
7. Reeds
8. Alessadndrina/Vatun

Even with the Shibs subpar performances in China, they should easily earn a spot in the Final with a silver behind W/P. I too think that K/G-S can upset and earn a bronze in their only assignment this year. I/K haven't looked impressive in the videos i've seen so far. They could medal (or even win) if they have improved, though. Z/G have another of the really bad FDs of the season, and I hope they have made some adjustments. P/I should do much better here, but they clearly have a lot of work ahead of them if they want to make the world team this year.

I don't mean to be a downer, but don't you think we should hold on the predictions until we find out:

1. Who are the judges; and
2. Who is the tech specialist; and most importantly,
3. Whether Alla Shekhovtsova, the wife of Valentin Piseev (wife of the head of Russian skating fed), is "happen" to be visiting Japan, just like she was "happen" to be visiting CoC? :think:

CARA said:

I don't mean to be a downer, but don't you think we should hold on the predictions until we find out:

1. Who are the judges; and
2. Who is the tech specialist; and most importantly,
3. Whether Alla Shekhovtsova, the wife of Valentin Piseev (wife of the head of Russian skating fed), is "happen" to be visiting Japan, just like she was "happen" to be visiting CoC? :think:

Click to expand...

Can you explain how the judges "gave" the medals to any pre-determined underserving winners at COC? And how the Tech Panel unjustly affected the outcomes?

Do you think Mrs. Piseev saw to it that Gachinsky slipped off the podium?

SkateFiguring said:

Can you explain how the judges "gave" the medals to any pre-determined underserving winners at COC? And how the Tech Panel unjustly affected the outcomes?

Do you think Mrs. Piseev saw to it that Gachinsky slipped off the podium?

Click to expand...

Via Free Dance Cup of China thread on p.9, Chuckm stated, "Madame Piseev was at CoC and sat on the PAIRS and the LADIES judging panels. While she was there, I'm sure she bent the ears of the UZB, UKR and RUS judges on the Ice Dance panel.... "