- Joined
- Mar 14, 2006
I wonder if Yasmin Siraj has a chance to make top 5. She was a standout last year but I'm not sure what she's been up to since then.
2012 US Nationals Ladies- Top 5?
- Thread starter macy
- Start date
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
Alyssa
Ashley
Mirai
Rachel
Zawadski
That the order I predict, as well as the order I'd like to see.
Ashley
Mirai
Rachel
Zawadski
That the order I predict, as well as the order I'd like to see.
- Joined
- Nov 5, 2011
Vanessa? Well, if Amercian judges continue to ignore her often URed small jumps, she may have a chance.
If the international judges don't see her URed jumps, then what's the problem?
Yeah I agree, Vanessa has just as good a shot as anyone at top five with how she's done this year. 4th and 5th very hard to pin down. Top 3 is virtually carved in stone unless one or more of them completely bombs which hopefully doesn't happen as it'd be an extremely lackluster event otherwise.
I was wondering about her too. Will she be at nationals this year?
- Joined
- Oct 23, 2011
that's certainly possible this year.
Yes Yasmin will be there!
From the Unseen Skaters page:
Potential spoilers to the top 5: Vanessa Lam, Leah Keiser (she has a 3-3), Angela Wang (She has a 3-3 too), Yasmin Siraj, Samantha Cesario and Nina Jiang.
From the Unseen Skaters page:
Potential spoilers to the top 5: Vanessa Lam, Leah Keiser (she has a 3-3), Angela Wang (She has a 3-3 too), Yasmin Siraj, Samantha Cesario and Nina Jiang.
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2003
I agree the podium will probably be Alissa, Ashley, and Mirai (in that order, is my guess).
I don't think Flatt, Zawadzki, Gao, or Zhang have much chance at all for the podium. All of them have had terrible seasons so far. I think Alissa and Ashley will be solid enough to medal and/or win. The question mark I think is Mirai. If she comes out as flat and lifeless as at Skate Canada, I could see her falling off the podium, opening up a chance for someone else. If that were to happen, maybe someone new(ish) might sneak in for a medal--Cesario, Keiser, or even Forte, maybe.
Personally I would rather not see Flatt, Zawadzki, or Zhang on the podium. Rachael is past her peak and should retire, I think. Zawadzki has been a disappointment so far. I was really surpised to read recently that she almost quit skating last season, despite a fairly solid senior GP debut and second Junior World medal. That sort of makes me question her mindset--if you're ready to quit at 16/17 when just getting started, how do you get past that to the point of winning World/Olympic medals?? As for Zhang, although I do like her, I just don't see her ever becoming a serious contender again. These days you can never say never (as demonstrated by Alissa's comeback), but it just seems unlikely. It is so unfortunate, but I feel Caroline is fighting an uphill battle. Now that she's grown physically, I'm not sure if her body type is still conducive to skating. Her natural shape seems a bit top-heavy: her shoulders are big and her upper body in general is strongly built, whereas her legs have remained rather short. I feel like the changes to her body have negatively affected her artistry, which used to be her strong suit, and of course she continues to struggle with jumps despite much-improved technique. Very unfortunate. I still have some hopes for Christina Gao, but am surprised by her collapse this season and have no idea what's behind it.
In my 20 years of watching figure skating, this is definitely the worst the U.S. has ever been in the ladies division. It's hard to believe the country that produced Yamaguchi/Kerrigan/Harding and Kwan/Lipinski/Hughes/Cohen could have gotten this bad!
I don't think Flatt, Zawadzki, Gao, or Zhang have much chance at all for the podium. All of them have had terrible seasons so far. I think Alissa and Ashley will be solid enough to medal and/or win. The question mark I think is Mirai. If she comes out as flat and lifeless as at Skate Canada, I could see her falling off the podium, opening up a chance for someone else. If that were to happen, maybe someone new(ish) might sneak in for a medal--Cesario, Keiser, or even Forte, maybe.
Personally I would rather not see Flatt, Zawadzki, or Zhang on the podium. Rachael is past her peak and should retire, I think. Zawadzki has been a disappointment so far. I was really surpised to read recently that she almost quit skating last season, despite a fairly solid senior GP debut and second Junior World medal. That sort of makes me question her mindset--if you're ready to quit at 16/17 when just getting started, how do you get past that to the point of winning World/Olympic medals?? As for Zhang, although I do like her, I just don't see her ever becoming a serious contender again. These days you can never say never (as demonstrated by Alissa's comeback), but it just seems unlikely. It is so unfortunate, but I feel Caroline is fighting an uphill battle. Now that she's grown physically, I'm not sure if her body type is still conducive to skating. Her natural shape seems a bit top-heavy: her shoulders are big and her upper body in general is strongly built, whereas her legs have remained rather short. I feel like the changes to her body have negatively affected her artistry, which used to be her strong suit, and of course she continues to struggle with jumps despite much-improved technique. Very unfortunate. I still have some hopes for Christina Gao, but am surprised by her collapse this season and have no idea what's behind it.
In my 20 years of watching figure skating, this is definitely the worst the U.S. has ever been in the ladies division. It's hard to believe the country that produced Yamaguchi/Kerrigan/Harding and Kwan/Lipinski/Hughes/Cohen could have gotten this bad!
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
Mrs. P said:
This is the first I have heard of her. Go Leah!
Edited to add: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQetwglL_Xs
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Really? I started following (more than just the top few shown on TV) in 1994. Beyond the medalists, I thought the fields were pretty weak in the mid-90s. Sure, there might have been two or three stars that could contend for medals at Worlds, but there wasn't nearly as much depth, IMO.
But isn't that two or three international contenders more than we have now? I mean, both times Kwan was defeated at the Olympics (okay, that's the late nineties already), she was beaten by another American. In 1994 we had Bobek and Kerrigan, in 1995 we already had Kwan, and I think Bobek medaled at worlds. In 1990-1992 we had Kristi, Tonya, and Nancy. Tonia Kwiatkowski was in there somewhere.
To my mind it isn't how many people are waiting in the wings--who knows if they will make it out onstage--but how many people are standing on the world podium. And judging things that way, the present time is an unparalleled drought (except for the years between the plane crash and Peggy Fleming).
That's kind of what I was thinking. Granted we don't have the superstars we used to, but I agree with you gkelly about depth. The reason why we haven't had three spots is because we haven't had one (or even two in some cases) strong frontrunner to anchor the spots or to make up for the weakest skater. That is where eyra's argument stands -- does the U.S. ladies have a strong medal contender--- not really (though some easily could be!)
Despite relatively weak showings/appearances in Worlds, we continue to have skaters do well enough to have several skaters invited to two events on the GP -- that also speaks of the depth of the program. (And you can't use the host pick argument either because Alissa was the only one to compete at SA with two events)
USA: Alissa, Rachael, Mirai, Agnes Z., Christina, Ashley. (Top 6 at Nationals)
JAPAN: Mao, Kanako, Akiko, Haruka (2,3,4,6 at Nationals; Miki (1st) sat out; Risa (5th at nationals) did JGP)
RUSSIA: Adelina, Alena, Liza, Ksenia (1, 2, 3, 5 at Nationals; Julia L (4th) is JGP)
CANADA: Cynthia and Amelie (1 and 3 at Nationals; Myrianne is injured?)
ITALY: Carolina and Valetina (1 and 2 at Nationals)
GEORGIA: Elene
SWEDEN: Viktoria
FRANCE: Mae Bernice
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I feel like Czisny and Nagasu are kind of comparable to Bobek, Flatt and Wagner kind of comparable to Kwiatkowski, at least in terms of strengths and weaknesses within the context of the demands of the era.
How they've done at Worlds is partly attributable to how well they performed according to their own standard when they got there, and partly to the depth of the rest of the field and how well all those other skaters performed.
I think the fields have gotten deeper across the US and across the world. That makes it harder for the pretty-good, potential medal contender at her best, type of skater to gain momentum, because less than her best can easily leave her off the team.
How they've done at Worlds is partly attributable to how well they performed according to their own standard when they got there, and partly to the depth of the rest of the field and how well all those other skaters performed.
I think the fields have gotten deeper across the US and across the world. That makes it harder for the pretty-good, potential medal contender at her best, type of skater to gain momentum, because less than her best can easily leave her off the team.
Actually one can argue that Rachael and Ashley was better than Kwiatkowski.
Note:
Kwiatkowski world placements: 31st (didn't make FS) in 1993; 8th in 1996 and 6th in 1998
Flatt world placement: 5th in 2009; 9th in 2010 and 12th in 2011
Wagner world placement: 16th in 2008
My predictions for podium would be Gold - Alissa Czisny, Silver - Mirai Nagasu, and Bronze - Ashley Wagner. After the GP, Ashley always looks stronger than most Americans, but I really do think that Mirai is the best choice for Worlds, along with the new, confident and consistent Czisny.
I feel like Rachael will be a wild card for nationals but will most likely land in the middle of the pack. Gao is a wild card too at this point. Has she been competing poorly because she isn't in her best shape because of her injury? Also, will USFSA keep her PCS down because of her not so stellar performances at junior worlds? Zawadzki is having a transitional year and maybe get use to her body. She won't do well this year but will bounce back next year, unless her heart is not in the sport anymore. Leah Keiser looks very promising. I see her as the Gao of 2010, a junior bursting on the senior scene but more experienced competitors in front of her. A good comeback story is always good so I will continue to root for Caroline Zhang. Joelle Forte is usually quite consistent and at a mature age of 25, her nerves usually don't get the best of her. Interesting enough, Forte had the second highest base TES amongst the 3 sectionals in the LP, only behind Keiser. I still see Vanessa Lam and Yasmin Siraj with tiny jumps but beautiful artistry.
Alissa Czisny
Mirai Nagasu
Ashley Wagner
Leah Keiser
Caroline Zhang
Vanessa Lam
Yasmin Siraj
Joelle Forte
Agnes Zawadzki
Rachael Flatt
Angela Wang
Samantha Cesario
Nina Jiang
McKinzie Daniels
Haley Dunne
Kiri Baga
Morgan Bell
Sophia Adams
I would love to see Morgan Bell skate lights out again at nationals in the SP. I believe this is Sophia Adams first time at nationals(?) I don't doubt her abilities but nerves usually get the better of first time competitors. I left out Christina Gao because I really don't know where she will go, I just know she won't land on the podium. This is actually a pretty interesting nationals because a majority of these competitors were juniors only a season or two ago.
Worlds: Alissa Czisny and Mirai Nagasu
4CC: Alissa Czisny, Mirai Nagasu and Ahsley Wagner
Junior Worlds: Leah Keiser, Gracie Gold and Vanessa Lam
I feel like Rachael will be a wild card for nationals but will most likely land in the middle of the pack. Gao is a wild card too at this point. Has she been competing poorly because she isn't in her best shape because of her injury? Also, will USFSA keep her PCS down because of her not so stellar performances at junior worlds? Zawadzki is having a transitional year and maybe get use to her body. She won't do well this year but will bounce back next year, unless her heart is not in the sport anymore. Leah Keiser looks very promising. I see her as the Gao of 2010, a junior bursting on the senior scene but more experienced competitors in front of her. A good comeback story is always good so I will continue to root for Caroline Zhang. Joelle Forte is usually quite consistent and at a mature age of 25, her nerves usually don't get the best of her. Interesting enough, Forte had the second highest base TES amongst the 3 sectionals in the LP, only behind Keiser. I still see Vanessa Lam and Yasmin Siraj with tiny jumps but beautiful artistry.
Alissa Czisny
Mirai Nagasu
Ashley Wagner
Leah Keiser
Caroline Zhang
Vanessa Lam
Yasmin Siraj
Joelle Forte
Agnes Zawadzki
Rachael Flatt
Angela Wang
Samantha Cesario
Nina Jiang
McKinzie Daniels
Haley Dunne
Kiri Baga
Morgan Bell
Sophia Adams
I would love to see Morgan Bell skate lights out again at nationals in the SP. I believe this is Sophia Adams first time at nationals(?) I don't doubt her abilities but nerves usually get the better of first time competitors. I left out Christina Gao because I really don't know where she will go, I just know she won't land on the podium. This is actually a pretty interesting nationals because a majority of these competitors were juniors only a season or two ago.
Worlds: Alissa Czisny and Mirai Nagasu
4CC: Alissa Czisny, Mirai Nagasu and Ahsley Wagner
Junior Worlds: Leah Keiser, Gracie Gold and Vanessa Lam
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2003
Not sure I agree with this. How do you see the world ladies' field being deeper right now when, in fact, many people are talking about an overall regression in technical content on the ladies' side this season (excluding Tukt)? Honestly, I think the world ladies' field is not hugely impressive right now. To me this is evident from the relative ease not only of Tukt's victories but perhaps more so, Leonova's medals on the GP. Leonova certainly falls into the "pretty-good, potential medal contender" category you describe; she is a pretty average skater on the elite level, yet has had little trouble securing 2 GP medals and the GPF. To me her success speaks to the weakness of the field, not the depth.
As to depth on the U.S. ladies' side, I don't see it, at least among the senior ladies. Flatt, Zhang, and Zawadzki have all had 2+ years on the senior level but it's evident they're not going anywhere positive right now. And below them we have mostly first-year seniors or girls who may be lovely skaters but don't seem likely to win medals anytime soon (Siraj).
Good point. If we want to compare 2011, let's compare to other post-Olympic years.
1995 had a pretty strong competition at Worlds among the top 4, maybe top 5-7. After that there were not many skaters with good skating skills, good in-between skating, and 4-5 triples.
http://www.eskatefans.com/skatabase/worldladies1990.html
1999 was a little stronger in terms of jump content but again some of the decent jumpers didn't have a whole lot else to offer. IMO Leonova is very comparable to Soldatova or Malinina.
In 2003 the field is again stronger than 1999 IMO. Certainly in jump content. Stronger than 2011? Debatable.
http://www.eskatefans.com/skatabase/worldladies2000.html
If you want to look at GP events instead of Worlds, then look at fall 95 (first year of the Champions series) and fall 99. Fall 2003 is less applicable because it was the test run of the new judging system.
I hope you are right! Vanessa has something about her that catches your eyes from the moment she steps on the ice. Lovely, lovely skater. Her tiny jumps are worrisome though
