Ladies' programs with two triple-triples

Reading the thread for junior ladies SP at the GPF I was impressed with the amount of triple-triples they have planned in their programs and their succes rate. Polina Shelepen has planned two triple-triples in her program (overall 7 triples with two lutzes, two toes and additionally two double axels). Although she did not succeed with the second one I found it very admirable that she aims for such a difficult content. I thought of ladies who were able two skate a program with two triple-triples in it and I found in my memory just several exemples. Could you think of any others? Here is what came to my mind:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SXO6s3MCDw Irina Slutskaya, GPF 1999-2000, 3Lz+3Lo and 3S+3Lo. I think it was the first time that a woman landed two triple-triples in one program.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28djAK9g4-0 Carolina Kostner, 2003 Euros, 3Lz+3T and 3F+3T

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEWos8e7Iw4 Elena Sokolova, 2004 Euros, 3Lz+3T and 3S+3T. She did the same thing at 2003 Worlds QR but there's no video .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xzGdVragbo Shizuka Arakawa, Worlds 2004, 3Lz+3T+2Lo and 3S+3T.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GklM1M5KnBQ Miki Ando, Marshall's Challenge 2004, 3Lz+3Lo and 3T+3T (she also attempted 4S in this program!).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1VaoEWyBeQ Kimmie Meissner, Worlds 2006, 3F+3T and 3Lz+3T (she accomplished it also at 2005 Campbell's Classic, 2005 TEB and 2006 US Nationals)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbmnptvkU9k Mao Asada, GPF 2007-2008, 3F+3T and 3F+3Lo in the second half of the program (she also landed a two-footed triple axel). This was the only time she was given credit for both of her triple-triples but she attempted this content at 2008 4CC, 2008 Japan Nats and 2008 Worlds.

Just seven ladies! There's also Sarah Hughes' Olympic FS but I'm not counting that since both of her triple-triples there would've been downgraded had she competed under CoP.

Bartek, thank you as always for your great research. You know, I'd count Sarah, just because she pulled it out when it mattered the most. (And keep in mind I was rooting for Michelle. But I respect Sarah's amazing feat nonetheless.) She wasn't skating at a time when downgrades existed, or you can bet she would have trained differently.

As for the others, what an interesting list! It's nice to see Carolina on it, and especially satisfying to see Kimmie, who didn't have much time to make an impact in skating but used her time well. The two skaters on the list who mean the most to me, though, are Shizuka and Mao. To me, they are two of the most fascinating and memorable skaters ever. Their presence on this list is a testament to their talent and their determination not to accept defeat.

In all fairness if you're going to include other ladies from the 6.0 era who did it, then there's no reason to exclude Sarah's Olympic FS.

If you count triple-triple sequences, Tara Lipinski at Nagano Olys - 3LO-3LO and 3S-turn-3T. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva did 3LZ-3T and 3S-3T at this year's Japan Open. I think there was at least one competition where Midori Ito did two different 3-3s, but maybe I'm misremembering, but I think she did it at one of the smaller competitions where she was trying 3LZ-3T. At the Calgary Olympics, she did 3T-3T and 2A-turn-3S, and in a six (I think six) triple skate, too. I could have sworn that there was a time when Rachael Flatt did 3F-3T and 3LZ-3T in the same program when she was really young, but I may also be misremembering that one, too. I could have sworn one of the young American girls from that era did, though, when Caroline/Mirai/Rachael/Ashley were coming on the scene.

For ladies, it's not in their interest to attempt two 3/3's in a program under the COP. By attaching at least one of those triples to the end of a double axel instead, they allow themselves access to more points. That's because under the COP, jump elements only get one GOE regardless of the number of jumps, and it goes by the most difficult jump done in that element. Or to explain it another way, while doing a 3lutz/3toe and a solo 2axel have the same base value as doing a 2axel/3toe and a solo 3lutz, the maximum GOE for the former batch of jumps is 3.6, while for the latter it's 4.1. Even if a judge is more likely to give the maximum GOE to a 3/3 than a 2a/3t, a skater only needs to get the maximum GOE on either the 2a/3t or the 3lutz, and a medium GOE on the other element to get around a 3.5. Thus, doing an additional 3/3 is not only harder, riskier but also less likely to benefit in points. Something I long kvetched about with the COP.

These days, we have at least two junior ladies skaters who are very capable of doing two 3/3s in the FS: Adelina Sotnikova and Gracie Gold. Sotnikova can do the 3lutz/3toe and 3lutz/3loop (I believe she regularly did both last season when the loop was the required solo jump in the SP), and I'd wager a pretty penny she can do the 3flip/3toe and 3flip/3loop just as well. However, she does a 2axel/3toe instead. Gracie Gold does a 3flip/3toe in the short and a 3lutz/3toe in the long, then a 2axel/3toe this season. They don't do two 3/3s in one program likely for the reasons I said. We just have a system that discourages what the title of this thread is about.

Serious Business said:

For ladies, it's not in their interest to attempt two 3/3's in a program under the COP. By attaching at least one of those triples to the end of a double axel instead, they allow themselves access to more points. That's because under the COP, jump elements only get one GOE regardless of the number of jumps, and it goes by the most difficult jump done in that element. Or to explain it another way, while doing a 3lutz/3toe and a solo 2axel have the same base value as doing a 2axel/3toe and a solo 3lutz, the maximum GOE for the former batch of jumps is 3.6, while for the latter it's 4.1. Even if a judge is more likely to give the maximum GOE to a 3/3 than a 2a/3t, a skater only needs to get the maximum GOE on either the 2a/3t or the 3lutz, and a medium GOE on the other element to get around a 3.5. Thus, doing an additional 3/3 is not only harder, riskier but also less likely to benefit in points. Something I long kvetched about with the COP.

These days, we have at least two junior ladies skaters who are very capable of doing two 3/3s in the FS: Adelina Sotnikova and Gracie Gold. Sotnikova can do the 3lutz/3toe and 3lutz/3loop (I believe she regularly did both last season when the loop was the required solo jump in the SP), and I'd wager a pretty penny she can do the 3flip/3toe and 3flip/3loop just as well. However, she does a 2axel/3toe instead. Gracie Gold does a 3flip/3toe in the short and a 3lutz/3toe in the long, then a 2axel/3toe this season. They don't do two 3/3s in one program likely for the reasons I said. We just have a system that discourages what the title of this thread is about.

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Exactly. The point-maximizing jump layout is to go with a 3/3 and a 2A/3 in the free. Not that that's easy--few ladies even attempt it. In fact, no senior lady currently even attempts both a 3/3 and a 2A/3 in the free, though Tuktamisheva and other juniors do. (I might add, though, that the 2A/3 is not necessarily "easier" than a 3T/3T--I've seen more of the latter than the former from many ladies recently.)

Isn't a point maximizing layout one that repeats both the hardest jumps? Since you can only put a -3T or a -3Lo on the backend of a 3-3 combination, I don't think that having both a 3-3 and a 2A-3 would be squeezing the most points out of base value; since most skaters are bound to tack on a -3T, therefore making you repeat the least valuable triple. Say a skater's hardest triples would be a lutz and flip. I think the layout with the most points would be 2 lutzes, 2 flips, a loop, a salchow, a toe, and a double axel. Probably the best layout would be a 3-jump combo off the lutz, a solo lutz, a flip combo, a solo flip, a loop, a salchow, and a 2A-3T.

Krislite said:

In all fairness if you're going to include other ladies from the 6.0 era who did it, then there's no reason to exclude Sarah's Olympic FS.

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doubleflutz said:

If you count triple-triple sequences, Tara Lipinski at Nagano Olys - 3LO-3LO and 3S-turn-3T.

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Along those lines, you could also consider 3F+3T and 3T-half loop-3S, earlier, but cheated.

Krislite said:

In all fairness if you're going to include other ladies from the 6.0 era who did it, then there's no reason to exclude Sarah's Olympic FS.

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ITA...and Tara's Oly Skate as well.

Tara had a triple loop triple loop and a sequence not another triple-triple

burntBREAD said:

Isn't a point maximizing layout one that repeats both the hardest jumps? Since you can only put a -3T or a -3Lo on the backend of a 3-3 combination, I don't think that having both a 3-3 and a 2A-3 would be squeezing the most points out of base value; since most skaters are bound to tack on a -3T, therefore making you repeat the least valuable triple. Say a skater's hardest triples would be a lutz and flip. I think the layout with the most points would be 2 lutzes, 2 flips, a loop, a salchow, a toe, and a double axel. Probably the best layout would be a 3-jump combo off the lutz, a solo lutz, a flip combo, a solo flip, a loop, a salchow, and a 2A-3T.

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not necessarily.

in that layout the likely combo jumps would be 3Z-2T-2R, 3Z, 3F-2T, 3F, 3R, 3S, 2A-3T with a base value of 43.7, disregarding jump order/late bonus.

if instead one repeats the 3T instead of the 3F, then your jump layout could be 3Z-2T-2R, 3Z, 3F, 3R, 3S, 2A-3T, 2A-3T...base value of 44.5. this is because while you lose 1.2 points (5.3-4.1) by repeating a 3T instead of a 3F, you make up 2.0 points because your 3F-2T can become 2A-3T instead of a 3T-2T.


this is more or less Lipnitskaia's strategy...2A-3T-2T, 2A-3T, 3F-2T as her combos and the rest of the triples as solo jumps...it also allows her to have a triple in each of the 7 jumping passes (which a 3A-less lady doing a 3-3 would be unable to do) so she also gets more GOE potential (as Serious Business explained above).
And it also potentially maximizes the her overall base value, because by putting the combos at the front of the program she gets the 2A's and low-value triples in the first half, and higher-value triples in the bonus where most other female skaters are putting 2A's and low-value triples in the bonus...
altho Julia only does 3 jumps after the bonus as opposed to 5 so she's not maximizing her potential points ...but take it the other way, she doesn't need to rely on putting more jumps in the later half of the program when she's more tired...

If you look at the protocols for the JPGF FS, Julia's jump base value (44.91) + potential max GOE (2.1*7=14.7) is 59.61.
Then look at Polina Shelepen: base value (47.11) + potential max GOE (1.5*2+2.1*5=13.5) is 60.61

only a 1-pt difference, and yet looking just at jumps base value, Polina repeats the 3Z while Julia repeats the 3F (0.7 pt diff) and Polina does a 2R while Julia does a 2T (0.5 pt diff) at the end of the 3-jump combo, all other jumps are the same... so disregarding jump bonus, GOE, layout, Polina's jumps are 1.2 points more difficult than Julia's...but at the end of the day, Julia makes up 0.2 potential points on Polina simply by jump layout strategy.
Ultimately Polina's program with two 3-3's and 5 jumping passes in the second half is only potentially worth 1.00 points more than Julia's two 2A-3T's and only 3 passes in the bonus.

christinaskater said:

Tara had a triple loop triple loop and a sequence not another triple-triple

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Exactly. I rewatched it recently, and Tara did another little move in between those two triples. It can't count as a second triple-triple combination.

Olympia said:

Exactly. I rewatched it recently, and Tara did another little move in between those two triples. It can't count as a second triple-triple combination.

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a half-loop, which in the past made it a sequence, but today would count as a combination. not a 3-3, but a 3-1-3.

burntBREAD said:

Isn't a point maximizing layout one that repeats both the hardest jumps? Since you can only put a -3T or a -3Lo on the backend of a 3-3 combination, I don't think that having both a 3-3 and a 2A-3 would be squeezing the most points out of base value; since most skaters are bound to tack on a -3T, therefore making you repeat the least valuable triple. Say a skater's hardest triples would be a lutz and flip. I think the layout with the most points would be 2 lutzes, 2 flips, a loop, a salchow, a toe, and a double axel. Probably the best layout would be a 3-jump combo off the lutz, a solo lutz, a flip combo, a solo flip, a loop, a salchow, and a 2A-3T.

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I thought the implied context was clear, burntBREAD. Obviously without any regard to risk-mitigation or skill level, the "point-maximizing" layout for a lady without doing any quads is to repeat both the 3A and the 3Lz. But that's just a purely theoretical maximum. What we're talking about is expected maximum--taking into account the probability of successful execution of those difficult combos.

Brenda said:

not necessarily.

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I see. So the big point loss is actually from the point difference between double toes and triple toes.

Krislite said:

I thought the implied context was clear, burntBREAD. Obviously without any regard to risk-mitigation or skill level, the "point-maximizing" layout for a lady without doing any quads is to repeat both the 3A and the 3Lz. But that's just a purely theoretical maximum. What we're talking about is expected maximum--taking into account the probability of successful execution of those difficult combos.

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Sorry I missed your obvious implication, but it was not necessary to be so prickly.

What I suggested was NOT necessarily a theoretical maximum, there are ladies repeating two triples with high base values (Suzuki, Nagasu, Czisny, Wagner, etc.). I didn't say you had to repeat things like a triple axel or anything, no. I thought that since 3-3s appear to be a big struggle point for the ladies right now, they could avoid these by spreading their jumps throughout the program and start off with a 2A-3T, similar to what the aforementioned ladies appear to be going for this season, a 2A-3T in the opening parts of their programs and then repeating 3Lz (3F in Wagner's case) and 3Lo, still gaining big base value (but not as big as Brenda pointed off but still very high nonetheless without the risk of a 3-3 and getting the 2A-3T out of the way early).

burntBREAD said:

, they could avoid these by spreading their jumps throughout the program and start off with a 2A-3T, similar to what the aforementioned ladies appear to be going for this season, a 2A-3T in the opening parts of their programs and then repeating 3Lz (3F in Wagner's case) and 3Lo, still gaining big base value (but not as big as Brenda pointed off but still very high nonetheless without the risk of a 3-3 and getting the 2A-3T out of the way early).

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yep, repeating the loop is the best points maximizer (in a 3A-less world) since you can use it at the end of a combo and it's only 0.2 points less than a 3F.

in fact, if the repeated loop was combined with a 2A, then you do get to what I believe is the theoretical maximum (in a world without 3A): 3Z-2R, 2A-3R, 2A-3T, 3Z, 3F, 3R, 3S with a 2R as the third jump on any one of the three combos. with 2.1 potential GOE from having a triple in each jumping pass, total point potential 60.7 before time-bonus factoring.

of course 2A-3R can be difficult too...

Brenda said:

yep, repeating the loop is the best points maximizer (in a 3A-less world) since you can use it at the end of a combo and it's only 0.2 points less than a 3F.

in fact, if the repeated loop was combined with a 2A, then you do get to what I believe is the theoretical maximum (in a world without 3A): 3Z-2R, 2A-3R, 2A-3T, 3Z, 3F, 3R, 3S with a 2R as the third jump on any one of the three combos. with 2.1 potential GOE from having a triple in each jumping pass, total point potential 60.7 before time-bonus factoring.

of course 2A-3R can be difficult too...

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Yeah, I've only seen one 2A-3Lo and it's from Miyabi Oba who has ridiculously low jumps (but might rotate faster than even Tara Lipinski in her heyday) and can't do a lutz/flip consistently.

Brenda said:

yep, repeating the loop is the best points maximizer (in a 3A-less world) since you can use it at the end of a combo and it's only 0.2 points less than a 3F.

in fact, if the repeated loop was combined with a 2A, then you do get to what I believe is the theoretical maximum (in a world without 3A): 3Z-2R, 2A-3R, 2A-3T, 3Z, 3F, 3R, 3S with a 2R as the third jump on any one of the three combos. with 2.1 potential GOE from having a triple in each jumping pass, total point potential 60.7 before time-bonus factoring.

of course 2A-3R can be difficult too...

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Again, if we consider risk-mitigation doing 3Loops at the back-end of combinations is not prudent for point-maximization. They are extremely prone to downgrades and UR calls by the tech panel. Better to do 3Lz-combo and 3F-combo then repeat the both the lutz and the flip, while also including a 2A+3T. Something like:

2A+3T
3Lz+2L
3F+2L+2L
3Lz
3F
3L
3S

Is a pretty good "safe" program under COP--with the riskiest element being a 2A+3T.

Krislite said:

Again, if we consider risk-mitigation doing 3Loops at the back-end of combinations is not prudent for point-maximization. They are extremely prone to downgrades and UR calls by the tech panel. Better to do 3Lz-combo and 3F-combo then repeat the both the lutz and the flip, while also including a 2A+3T. Something like:

2A+3T
3Lz+2L
3F+2L+2L
3Lz
3F
3L
3S

Is a pretty good "safe" program under COP--with the riskiest element being a 2A+3T.

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that's why I said 2A-3R is difficult; my point was actually to find the layout that would produce that theoretical point maximum with 7 non-axel triples and show that due to GOE factoring and combination limitations, that theoretical layout doesn't include any 3-3's, not necessarily what is safer.

If you really want to talk about risk, repeating both 3Z and 3F is actually a pretty bad strategy under COP. these days most ladies flutz or lip, and even the ones who have correct edges often have other problems with one of the jumps (i.e. Tuktamysheva neither flutzes nor lips, but she often doubles the flip). repeating both means risking edge calls on two jumping passes as opposed to one if you only repeat your better lutz/flip. Edge calls are -2 to -3 GOE...sometimes -1 if the jump otherwise has good flow, etc. That's why so many ladies are repeating the triple loop these days (i.e. solo 3R and 3R-2T-2R), because it is only 0.9 points less than a Lutz (or 0.2 less than a Flip) and then factor in the possibility of getting positive GOE over negative GOE for an edge call, and the Loop is still a better jump to repeat (or even salchow, whichever is more solid).

Repeating a 3T is also a good option if your 2A-3T combo is solid, because a 2A-3T-2R, 2A-3T, 3Z/F-2R, 3Z, 3F, 3R, 3S layout is still a lot of points. It works out very well for Lipnitskaia...even though her 2A is very ugly, she's very consistent with the combo (and doing two very similar combos makes practice much more efficient).