State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

JPierce · Oct 21, 2012

R.D. said:
So...after Skate America, what are your thoughts?

I admit I underestimated Gao's ability- she came out and really surprised a lot of us with solid routines. She has also developed apart from jumps and is not as shy as she used to be (although her style is still very much the reserved kind). But then- I like surprises. I hate it when everything is boring and predictable. I like it when someone shakes things up. Especially one of our own!

I thought Gao's program was a boring jumpfest. I don't get why people fawned over it. Guess I'll have to watch it again to be sure.

R.D. said:
And as for Flatt, I think I was right about her. I take it she is on her way out as she said school is now her #1 priority. Frankly I don't even know why she bothered to compete this year...I'm sure she could have found a show or two to skate in because that's really all she's bringing to the table. She is no longer competitive. Then again, having said that, she is nursing an injury so it's possible that held her back. But somehow I feel it's less the injury and more her just simply moving on mentally and physically from top-level skating. Someone else (Nagasu?) probably should have gotten her SA spot.

It's really sad to see. I guess she just couldn't pass up her ivy-league acceptance. Whatever. I'm curious if anyone can quickly summarize why she only got a 92 in the free skate though? Not to mention only a 43 in the short? And "they sucked" isn't the response I'm looking for. Just wondered specifically what was missing in terms of our wonderful CoP scoring system, be it jumps or spin/spiral levels or GOE or what. Or just "everything."

Skater Boy said:
Hahahaha Janetfan you are too funny Me thinks you like Mirai - and I do too but I do think she needs to gain some consistency and I am not sure where head or heart is.

I've met her briefly in person. She definitely takes herself too seriously, and I also get the impression that she's a bit ... how to put it... like the gossipy kids in school who are always in their little clique and constantly talking about someone or another. That's the kind of mannerism she had when talking with her friends during a practice. Maybe that will go away with maturity, but to relate that personality to skating, what I'd be concerned about would be whether she blames others for her problems and whether she has the humility to take advice from coaches. Unfortunately my mind draws parallels to Sasha Cohen's struggles with her coaches and her personality here. So much raw talent and unique ability, forever curtailed by personal failings.

Also, she's dumped Frank Carroll because "the drive was too far." That seems like a grave and childish mistake to me. I know it's hard to leave the nest at her age, but she only gets this shot for a short period of time in her life. I'd have thought a top skater would want to relocate closer to their world-class coach for a while until the Olympics, rather than settle for a lesser coach.

Mathman · Oct 21, 2012

^ Nah, Mirai's not like that at all. Phil Hersh put her in the top ten "funnest" athletes (all sports) in the country.

burntBREAD · Oct 21, 2012

I thought Mirai didn't relocate closer because her mother didn't want her to live with another family (for various reasons)?

R.D. · Oct 22, 2012

Olympia said:
I missed Rachael but saw Ashley and Christina. Both were impressive. How great for them!

Never fear, here's the video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NkTCuUlT5Q

(her FS)

Actually, while I'm at it- may as well link the videos to Wagner and Gao as well, just for reference.

Wagner SA SP http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1SMi4QwAq0

Gao SA SP http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TKHO4xNEZo

____________

Wagner SA FS http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lu5JWRNutk

Gao SA FS http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d90P_GKo6lc

Tonichelle · Oct 22, 2012

US has the ladies vids up now - http://www.youtube.com/user/universalsports

brightphoton · Oct 22, 2012

JPierce said:
I thought Gao's program was a boring jumpfest. I don't get why people fawned over it. Guess I'll have to watch it again to be sure.

I think people like it because Gao executed her all of the program elements correctly and landed on the podium, something she hasn't done in years. It's like when Alissa come on to the scene in 2008 with that short program of hers. Every year she came in and fell lots of times and of course everyone expected her to land on her butt again, so when she FINALLY pulled it together, people felt a great sense of elation.

JPierce said:
I'm curious if anyone can quickly summarize why she only got a 92 in the free skate though? Not to mention only a 43 in the short? And "they sucked" isn't the response I'm looking for. Just wondered specifically what was missing in terms of our wonderful CoP scoring system, be it jumps or spin/spiral levels or GOE or what. Or just "everything."

She's losing a ton of points because she's doing easier elements: double flip, level 2 spins, simple combinations where she only does a double toe after the main jump while the other girls are adding double toe+double loop+another sequence, and no jump sequences. Overall she's attempting a less technically demanding program. Her base score is 10 points below Wagner for comparison. Flatt is also getting neutral GOEs for her elements, so she was not gaining any more technical points for execution either. If skaters execute a program well, they can pick up another 5-10 points.

and I'm not a fan of Frank so I'm not sad about their separation. I think Mirai is going to do just splendidly with her new coach, who looks a lot like an older Bebe Liang.

samson · Oct 22, 2012

Holy cow. Christina and Ashley were both fabulous today at Skate America. Christina was a total surprise to me. Her presentation skills are much stronger this year and we're finally seeing the jumps landed. What a treat. I definitely understand what people are saying about seeing how she does in France. If she equals this in France, I think she'll likely get scored higher/it will be make for one hell of a set up into Nationals.

Despite some of those wild landings, I think Ashley's LP has already gotten stronger. It's starting to turn into that show piece she really wants it to be. She had the audience in the palm of her hand by the end of that skate and she knew. This program is clearly designed to do that. There was more power, style, and nuance in her performance tonight. She also looked deeper in her knees than at JO. I'm not one to gush about Ashley, honestly her style is not my favorite, but that was quite the way to kick things off. She's going to be hard to catch if she keeps this up.

Rachael... I mean what is there to say? She's injured, but she also looked not to be in the best we've seen her in. And I'm not suggesting she's overweight. I still think she looks good, but she's not a tight and toned as we've seen her in the past. This goes beyond it being October, she's clearly very busy at Stanford and struggling to balance that. But I don't blame her for it, I'd want to have my cake and eat it too, but it's just clearly very hard.

I'm not worried that Mirai is no longer with Frank. She seems more mature on the ice this year, her spins are faster, there's personality. Brightphoton, I totally see the Bebe resemblance in her coach. When I first saw them together I thought it was Bebe! If she skates her LP to it's potential it will be a show stopper.

R.D. · Oct 28, 2012

AFTER SKATE CANADA

We saw the season debuts of Caroline Zhang and Gracie Gold. Thoughts?

My first thought is that although Gold gave into nerves here, I could clearly see her talent. With it being early in the season as well, I'm willing to give her some time - but again, it illustrates the "danger" behind excessive hype of skater(s). If they don't completely blow the roof off, it becomes like a failure and I don't think it is really fair.

Zhang has taken a step back since last season, but like Nagasu she is known for peaking later in the season. Apparently a near-wardrobe malfunction prevented her from doing some of the more difficult spins in the FS which cost her a few points, but even with that aside, she is clearly in B-list territory.

Looks like at least for now, Wagner is in a class by herself when it comes to the American women. It will be interesting to see:

a) how the other US ladies (that we haven't seen yet) perform in their GP events
b) how much improvement (if any) they will make
c) whether all can stay healthy throughout the season
d) given (c), if Wagner will be feeling the pressure at Nationals. Remember, first-time champions have failed to defend for at least the past quarter-century IIRC

ForeverFish · Oct 28, 2012

R.D. said:
AFTER SKATE CANADA

We saw the season debuts of Caroline Zhang and Gracie Gold. Thoughts?

My first thought is that although Gold gave into nerves here, I could clearly see her talent. With it being early in the season as well, I'm willing to give her some time - but again, it illustrates the "danger" behind excessive hype of skater(s). If they don't completely blow the roof off, it becomes like a failure and I don't think it is really fair.

Zhang has taken a step back since last season, but like Nagasu she is known for peaking later in the season. Apparently a near-wardrobe malfunction prevented her from doing some of the more difficult spins in the FS which cost her a few points, but even with that aside, she is clearly in B-list territory.

Looks like at least for now, Wagner is in a class by herself when it comes to the American women. It will be interesting to see:

a) how the other US ladies (that we haven't seen yet) perform in their GP events
b) how much improvement (if any) they will make
c) whether all can stay healthy throughout the season
d) given (c), if Wagner will be feeling the pressure at Nationals. Remember, first-time champions have failed to defend for at least the past quarter-century IIRC

Poor Gracie. She said afterward that she was getting ahead of herself throughout her routines and failed to focus completely on the jumping elements, which would have scored her massive points and maybe even put her on the podium. It's upsetting to see that people are tossing her into the reject bin for one bad turnout, and her GP debut at that. Give her time to ease into the senior pool--she's not yet at Ashley's level, but she has a realistic shot at the Nats podium this season if she pulls out all the stops. Both of her programs are beautifully choreographed and suited to her style. The other major contender will be Czisny, who may or may not be fully recovered from her injury.

Going to be honest here--even with Gao's performance at Skate Canada, I don't foresee her being a serious contestant for the Nats medals in January. She gets less support from the US federation than Ashley or Gracie, who are the figure skating equivalents of "America's sweethearts," and the complaints will be deafening if it seems that they were underscored.

R.D. · Oct 28, 2012

Poor Gracie. She said afterward that she was getting ahead of herself throughout her routines and failed to focus completely on the jumping elements, which would have scored her massive points and maybe even put her on the podium. It's upsetting to see that people are tossing her into the reject bin for one bad turnout, and her GP debut at that.

Who knows, it may actually work to her benefit. It may lower expectations and when people are no longer expecting her to be the savior of US skating, it will be easier for her.

I do wish someone else (besides Wagner) would step up though because we need TWO solid, consistent skaters to get us that 3rd Olympic spot again. As we saw last year, Wagner cannot do it on her own

ForeverFish · Oct 28, 2012

R.D. said:
Who knows, it may actually work to her benefit. It may lower expectations and when people are no longer expecting her to be the savior of US skating, it will be easier for her.

I do wish someone else (besides Wagner) would step up though because we need TWO solid, consistent skaters to get us that 3rd Olympic spot again. As we saw last year, Wagner cannot do it on her own

I certainly hope that, able to train outside of the searing spotlight, she'll find the confidence that made her so reliable last season.

If there's any US lady who we can pin half of our Olympic hopes to, I would still call on Gracie Gold. She's a virtual powerhouse of talent and stands a better chance of grabbing the eye of the National Olympic Committee than Czisny, Gao, Zhang, or any other skater who may emerge from anonymity between now and then. Ashley, assuming good health, is all but guaranteed one of the spots. Here's hoping that Gracie will find her comfort zone in the senior field later this season.

Art&Sport · Oct 28, 2012

Love seeing Ashley so strong and confident. I like that she has found her own identity on the ice and is now so confident and consistent under John Nicks and with Philip Mills on her team as well. I'm looking forward to taking each competition as they come and not getting too far ahead of myself, just as the athletes likely try to do as well.

Clearly, if Gao skates as well at TEB as she did at SA, she should place well, whether or not she makes it to GPF. I love Gao's skating, which reminds me a bit now of Lu Chen at her peak. Nice to see that Gao's decision to continue skating while going to school has been the right one for her. With the help of her new coaches, I hope she continues to do well and build in confidence. Debi Thomas was another athlete who continued going to school while skating. At some point, a decision might have to be made re school or skating if Gao continues to succeed and achieves a level of success where she decides she wants to give it her all to make the Olympic team.

At this stage, I think Gracie needs more time to develop artistic maturity and strengthen her competition nerves. Ashley should secure the top spot at Nationals if she continues with the confidence and success she has been showing. She has great programs, and I like her spunky more edgier style (less pretty princess) and more fiery diva mixed with resilient grounded and polished athlete.

R.D. · Oct 28, 2012

I know Gold didn't skate all that well, but I still think NBC should have shown at least her (entire) freeskate. They showed Liza after all and she was in group 1...

I don't know Harvard's policy but if Gao wanted to make a SERIOUS run for the Olympics, she might be able to take the next school year off (or at least lighten the load sufficiently). I will say it's probably too soon to conclude whether Gao's decision to try to balance the two is the right one; let's see how she does in France first. Again, I can't see how she could be much better than she was in Seattle.

And re. Wagner, I like where she is going but I will be careful not to pin all (or even most) hopes on her. I still think she is untested as a defending champion. She thrived as the underdog last year but what happens this year at Nationals (for instance) when she will be the FAVORITE? Plus, she still needs the help of a solid teammate and that help is nowhere to be found (currently).

ForeverFish · Oct 28, 2012

R.D. said:
I know Gold didn't skate all that well, but I still think NBC should have shown at least her (entire) freeskate. They showed Liza after all and she was in group 1...

I don't know Harvard's policy but if Gao wanted to make a SERIOUS run for the Olympics, she might be able to take the next school year off (or at least lighten the load sufficiently). I will say it's probably too soon to conclude whether Gao's decision to try to balance the two is the right one; let's see how she does in France first. Again, I can't see how she could be much better than she was in Seattle.

And re. Wagner, I like where she is going but I will be careful not to pin all (or even most) hopes on her. I still think she is untested as a defending champion. She thrived as the underdog last year but what happens this year at Nationals (for instance) when she will be the FAVORITE? Plus, she still needs the help of a solid teammate and that help is nowhere to be found (currently).

Agree to your first point. Unfortunately, I don't see Gao taking a gap year from Harvard, since she put school ahead of her skating career for a considerable amount of time this summer when she considered retiring. Unless I'm mistaken, I think she's studying medicine, which as we all know is no frolic through a field of daisies. Either school or skating will have to go soon, and if she doesn't do as well as she wants at Nats this season, I'm putting my money on skating.

As for Gao at TEB, she'll have to be better than we've ever seen to beat out the likes of Lipnitskaia, Wagner, and Tuktamysheva (who we know Mishin will be pushing even harder after her less-than-stellar show at Skate Canada). Being the Skate America pool wasn't the toughest in terms of consistency, Gao still hasn't proven anything aside from her ability to skate a clean program, which is like second nature to the Russian girls.

Correct about Wagner--I just hope she can hold up under the pressure, since her programs still need a lot of work. There was certainly some political bias in awarding her a 127+ for her free skate. What I'm hoping is that Gold will step up to the plate, motivated by her Skate Canada defeat, and become that reliable teammate in time for Nats or Worlds.

ImaginaryPogue · Oct 28, 2012

You know, I think it was kwanatic or kwanfan1918 or kwan------ (whoever runs the Naked Ice Blog) that mentioned this, but Wagner is just radiating confidence this year. She's got the full support of her federation (skating in the discipline they want the most), an interest in self improvement, a desire to win and work ethic. I think she's thriving on the pressure, actually. And THAT is what's making her a force this year more than any other.

Olympia · Oct 28, 2012

Now if only Caroline Zhang could increase her skating speed....

R.D. · Oct 29, 2012

ForeverFish said:
As for Gao at TEB, she'll have to be better than we've ever seen to beat out the likes of Lipnitskaia, Wagner, and Tuktamysheva (who we know Mishin will be pushing even harder after her less-than-stellar show at Skate Canada). Being the Skate America pool wasn't the toughest in terms of consistency, Gao still hasn't proven anything aside from her ability to skate a clean program, which is like second nature to the Russian girls.

The Russians are hardly invincible - just ask Miss Osmond.

Back to the Americans, though - Gao skated THE BEST SHE POSSIBLY COULD and still couldn't top an imperfect Wagner in the FS. She's just not on Wagner's level at this point. Odds are Gao won't skate that well at TEB (she might, but a betting man might not take that chance), so I do not think she can win the event. A repeat of SA COULD put her on the podium if one or more Russians mess up...I still think she got lucky, but hey, I like surprises.

Correct about Wagner--I just hope she can hold up under the pressure, since her programs still need a lot of work. There was certainly some political bias in awarding her a 127+ for her free skate. What I'm hoping is that Gold will step up to the plate, motivated by her Skate Canada defeat, and become that reliable teammate in time for Nats or Worlds.

There was some campaigning for Gold last season but I pointed out that she was untested under pressure. After SC, she herself admitted to being caught up in the moment and said she needs more senior experience. The transition to the highest level is not an easy one, and it may come with growing pains (in her case, it HAS already come with such pains).

Yes, Wagner's score was a bit high. But that was SA, home crowd and all.

clairecloutier · Oct 29, 2012

ForeverFish said:
Agree to your first point. Unfortunately, I don't see Gao taking a gap year from Harvard, since she put school ahead of her skating career for a considerable amount of time this summer when she considered retiring. Unless I'm mistaken, I think she's studying medicine, which as we all know is no frolic through a field of daisies. Either school or skating will have to go soon, and if she doesn't do as well as she wants at Nats this season, I'm putting my money on skating.

Perhaps Christina could simply take a reduced class schedule at Harvard next year, instead of having to choose either skating or school. Meryl & Charlie have both taken reduced class schedules at Michigan, and it's worked out well for them. I don't know if Harvard's rules permit that option.

burntBREAD · Oct 29, 2012

eyria said:
Perhaps Christina could simply take a reduced class schedule at Harvard next year, instead of having to choose either skating or school. Meryl & Charlie have both taken reduced class schedules at Michigan, and it's worked out well for them. I don't know if Harvard's rules permit that option.

Someone noted before that Harvard requires all students, including student athletes, to take a full load of courses. I don't think it's possible. I go to the University of Michigan right now, and you can enroll as part-time students, which is what Meryl/Charlie likely did, but I don't think Harvard has that option.

MoonlightSkater · Oct 29, 2012

R.D. said:
The Russians are hardly invincible - just ask Miss Osmond.

Back to the Americans, though - Gao skated THE BEST SHE POSSIBLY COULD and still couldn't top an imperfect Wagner in the FS. She's just not on Wagner's level at this point. Odds are Gao won't skate that well at TEB (she might, but a betting man might not take that chance), so I do not think she can win the event. A repeat of SA COULD put her on the podium if one or more Russians mess up...I still think she got lucky, but hey, I like surprises.

There was some campaigning for Gold last season but I pointed out that she was untested under pressure. After SC, she herself admitted to being caught up in the moment and said she needs more senior experience. The transition to the highest level is not an easy one, and it may come with growing pains (in her case, it HAS already come with such pains).

Yes, Wagner's score was a bit high. But that was SA, home crowd and all.

Gao still has a triple-triple she could put at the front of her free skate. She lands it consistently well in practice and I'd be unsurprised if that's her next step, since she's proven she's got her current program down. She could also work on expressing just a bit more and carrying just a bit more speed. There is some room for improvement there (just a bit), as there always is. I also think the international judges might give her a tad more respect now that she's shown what she's capable of.

Wagner's score seemed very deserved to most if not all of those in the arena. She took the ice by force, and I'm not sure if television or video could show the whole of her performance. Overall (with the exception of Adelina's short program), I felt the scoring was fairly good.

Edit To Add: Gao also does that final spin better in practice, and perhaps she and her coaches can cook up a better position to leave a great final impression. I never understand why skaters put the "turtle" position or the A-frame position in their final spin. Is that really an attractive bit of skating? Very rarely if ever.

State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

JPierce

Match Penalty

Mathman

burntBREAD

R.D.

Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll

brightphoton

samson

R.D.

ForeverFish

R.D.

ForeverFish

Art&Sport

R.D.

ForeverFish

ImaginaryPogue

Olympia

R.D.

clairecloutier

burntBREAD

MoonlightSkater

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