State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season | Page 21 | Golden Skate

State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
2-foot landings as well as URs (I think the two are actually linked). It was never as bad as say, Mirai Nagasu, but URs and DGs hurt her placements in the past. Ashley's not the biggest jumper, but she makes up for it in consistency.

I was actually worried for her during some of the jumps at SA. She doesn't get as much height as she needs to, and every time she was in the air I held my breath and prayed that she'd rotate fast enough to compensate.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I think Wagner has always been very good, even as far back as 2009. I think she was punished for her frequent 2-foot landings but she might be given a little slack at Nationals now because she has had such strong results. So I agree that she'd have to be off to lose, or Gracie would have to be squeaky clean with 7 triples.

To be clear, I meant any of the others BESIDES Gold.

I think a determined Gold could slip ahead of a shaky Wagner. After COR, I can't completely discount Zawadzki either. If Wagner is 100% on, THAT is when she'll be hard to top.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
To be clear, I meant any of the others BESIDES Gold.

I think a determined Gold could slip ahead of a shaky Wagner. After COR, I can't completely discount Zawadzki either. If Wagner is 100% on, THAT is when she'll be hard to top.

I think Wagner is a good bet to win. We see so few clean programs under COP because everything between the jumps count now, which makes the programs so much more difficult. So if everyone makes a mistake or two I think Ashley wins by a landslide. At this point it's hard for me to imagine anyone aside from Gracie, Agnes, or Christina in the other medal positions.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
To be clear, I meant any of the others BESIDES Gold.

I think a determined Gold could slip ahead of a shaky Wagner. After COR, I can't completely discount Zawadzki either. If Wagner is 100% on, THAT is when she'll be hard to top.

Gracie's biggest struggle right now is in the FS--I don't think she's yet had a clean skate this season. To be fair, Ashley wasn't spot on at SA either, but her score was still 15 points higher than Gracie's. In the current state of things, it seems that Gracie and Ashley will be fighting for gold, but you never know who could make major progress between now and January.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Gracie's biggest struggle right now is in the FS--I don't think she's yet had a clean skate this season. To be fair, Ashley wasn't spot on at SA either, but her score was still 15 points higher than Gracie's. In the current state of things, it seems that Gracie and Ashley will be fighting for gold, but you never know who could make major progress between now and January.

And rightfully so -- Ashley did 6 triples; Gracie did 4. Also Gracie is not there in the PCS department yet so the gap between the two isn't that surprising.

I think, contrary to some, that her SP is very nice and showcases her personality...not sure if her FS is quite as good a fit.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
We're getting a bigger picture now the Top Ladies:
Wagner and Gold by a clear margin

Contenders:
Nagasu, Zawadzki, Gao and Wang

Non Factors:
Zhang and Flatt
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
And rightfully so -- Ashley did 6 triples; Gracie did 4. Also Gracie is not there in the PCS department yet so the gap between the two isn't that surprising.

I think, contrary to some, that her SP is very nice and showcases her personality...not sure if her FS is quite as good a fit.

Gracie will probably be spending these next two months working on her interpretation--I still wasn't entirely convinced during her FS, though she did dazzle in places and even nabbed a few eights in the PCS. For some reason, it reminded me of Tara Lipinski's FS to "The Rainbow" at the 1998 Olympics. May just be the costume.

I'm a big fan of her SP--she skates best to sassy, dramatic music.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
We're getting a bigger picture now the Top Ladies:
Wagner and Gold by a clear margin

Contenders:
Nagasu, Zawadzki, Gao and Wang

Non Factors:
Zhang and Flatt

Well Flatt is a nonfactor because she's out for the entire season, so we can't even include her in this discussion.

I would put Gold in the contender category. She did much better here and got silver, but she did not blow it out of the water, losing to a skater who has less technically difficulty.

Also Zhang is a late-season gal, so I wouldn't count her out either.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Well Flatt is a nonfactor because she's out for the entire season, so we can't even include her in this discussion.

I would put Gold in the contender category. She did much better here and got silver, but she did not blow it out of the water, losing to a skater who has less technically difficulty.

Also Zhang is a late-season gal, so I wouldn't count her out either.

she has technical goods to deliver and we already have a picture of how far she can score
she can hit 180+ if she's clean, Zawadzki or Gao cant hit above 170+ even if they are at their max

so I'd put Gold way up with Ashley

Zhang imo is done, she is really slow now
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
The problem is that she is skating near her best, which isn't competitive with the others. IIRC she was the cleanest at Nationals last year and still only wound up fourth.

She may be ok jump wise (she was actually in the middle of the pack there) but she suffered from low levels on her non jump elements of all thinks. So she still has some room to score better...though it might be tough for her to get on the podium if everyone skates at their best.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
The problem is that she is skating near her best, which isn't competitive with the others. IIRC she was the cleanest at Nationals last year and still only wound up fourth.

For Zhang, though, that was a significant personal victory- especially moving up from 12th(?) the previous year.
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We get to see Wagner again next week. After looking at her SA freeskate, many of those jumps were quite borderline and she fought for them. We'll have to see if she is more secure at TEB. I'm again cautioning folks against getting too excited about her...

Throughout her career, Wagner has almost always had to climb her way back up after a flubbed short. If she finds herself leading after the SP, I'd be interested to see if she approaches the FS with the same kind of intensity and attack. Far too often, the tendency is to hold back, be conservative and skate "not to lose" and when you do that, you're more prone to errors and that's when you open the door for a Gracie Gold to burst through, for example.

Of course, Gold herself has work to do as well. If she was able to land one more triple in her FS, she would have won COR. At least it was a step up from SC though. Zawadzki actually remained upright during her FS, what an achievement! Better than I expected, but still not the kind of skate IMO that will get her on the World team. This is where the lack of a third spot is a real shame, since she'd be a solid candidate for such a spot if there was one...Assuming Wagner is chosen, one of Gold or Zawadzki will miss out on a crucial pre-Oly worlds.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
she has technical goods to deliver and we already have a picture of how far she can score
she can hit 180+ if she's clean, Zawadzki or Gao cant hit above 170+ even if they are at their max

so I'd put Gold way up with Ashley

Zhang imo is done, she is really slow now

Christina scored above 170 at SA lol...
 

Rachmaninoff

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2011
I see Ashley as the favourite, with lots of skaters who could grab that second world team spot alongside her. Gracie, Christina, and Agnes have a real shot at it, with an outside chance for several others. Nationals should be good.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Out of those three, if we really want 3 spots back, I think Gold is the one to pull for. Although all 3 have shown inconsistency at some point, IMO only Gold is solidly capable of mid-to-lower top 10 finish at worlds. Even with her imperfect FS, her COR score total would have been enough for 6th place at Worlds last year. Of course, I stress the "no guarantees" clause here very much.

Gao has an unfavorable past record, and must prove SA wasn't a fluke (let's see her next week), and Zawadzki, you just never know what you'll get from her. She could be 7th, or 16th.
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ETA: Just saw in the Czisny thread that she pulled out of a show that she was scheduled to be in this weekend. NHK seems even more doubtful after hearing that- hopefully she WDs in time for an alternate to be chosen (not holding my breath).
 
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silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
One thing I will say about Gold vs. Gao is that Gold managed to earn a similar score (1 point higher even) with a program that had a lot more mistakes than Christina, so that is a reason to pull for her, she can afford to make mistakes and there is less pressure on her needing to be clean. Of course, if Gao switches to a 3f-3t in her SP and adds it to her FS, her scoring potential will be higher, but Gracie's is still higher at this point. The same goes for Agnes, she had 2 solid programs in Russia and was still about 10 points below Gracie who made more mistakes. I'm not sure I agree with Gracie's PCS being above Agnes' or Christina's, but that's not up to me, so she probably is the best bet at this point, unless she doesn't skate well at Nationals and shows she's inconsistent while Agnes and/or Christina skate well at their 2nd GPs and Nats to show they are consistent.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Christina scored above 170 at SA lol...

The thing is, though, that even with the multiple mistakes in her FS, Gold's score at CoR was still higher than Gao's at the best we've ever seen her. The highest that Gao has managed at Nats is 5th place, and I'm seeing little evidence that she can move up to silver unless she shows that SA wasn't a fluke at TEB next weekend.

We also need to remember that Gao has already lost to Gold--she finished seventh to Gold's second at Junior Worlds last season. I find Gold to be a much likelier choice for a first or second place finish because of the many risky jumping elements in her programs--how any times have we heard that "this is the most difficult combination being attempted in the ladies' field"? And Coach Ouriashev is hinting that Gold's FS may grow even more impressive in technical difficulty later this season--rumor is that she's perfecting a triple flip-half loop-triple salchow--while Gao is a far more cautious skater and brings no "wow-factor" to the table.
 
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Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
The thing is, though, that even with the multiple mistakes in her FS, Gold's score at CoR was still higher than Gao's at the best we've ever seen her. The highest that Gao has managed at Nats is 5th place, and I'm seeing little evidence that she can move up to silver unless she shows that SA wasn't a fluke at TEB next weekend.

We also need to remember that Gao has already lost to Gold--she finished seventh to Gold's second at Junior Worlds last season. I find Gold to be a much likelier choice for a first or second place finish because of the many risky jumping elements in her programs--how any times have we heard that "this is the most difficult combination being attempted in the ladies' field"? And Coach Ouriashev is hinting that Gold's FS may grow even more impressive in technical difficulty later this season--rumor is that she's perfecting a triple flip-half loop-triple salchow--while Gao is a far more cautious skater and brings no "wow-factor" to the table.

Gold actually completed the 3F-1L-3S combo at Skate Detroit and at U.S. International Classic. She probably would have done it here if not for the wonky landing of that particular flip.

I say we see where Gao is next week before we make any sweeping judgements. Gao has gone through a growth spurt in the last year or so and I think that really held her back last season. Gao is a year older than Gracie, but for some reason her visit with the puberty monster came later.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Gold actually completed the 3F-1L-3S combo at Skate Detroit and at U.S. International Classic. She probably would have done it here if not for the wonky landing of that particular flip.

I say we see where Gao is next week before we make any sweeping judgements. Gao has gone through a growth spurt in the last year or so and I think that really held her back last season. Gao is a year older than Gracie, but for some reason her visit with the puberty monster came later.

Had she done that combo at CoR, she would've won for sure. The sad thing is that Gold only lost by one triple, something I'm sure she won't let happen again.

I agree that we should reserve judgment until after TEB, but I'm not holding my breath for Gao, especially with Wagner, Tuk, and Lipnitskaia all vying for medals. Of course, though, she should feel free to prove me wrong...
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Had she done that combo, she would've won for sure. The sad thing is that Gold only lost by one triple, something I'm sure she won't let happen again.

I agree that we should reserve judgment until after TEB, but I'm not holding my breath for Gao, especially with Wagner, Tuk, and Lipnitskaia all vying for medals. Of course, though, she should feel free to prove me wrong...

Gao really surprised me at Skate America. She wasn't only skating well -- she looked confident! I've never seen that from her before. She was never one to be super nervous, but even with the "skate of her life," she was excited, but she wasn't surprised with it. She knew she skated the way she's been skating at practice. (I didn't go to the SA practices, but the GS-ers who were there said she looked very, very good).

And also Gao's FS wasn't just good, it was AMAZING. I was in the audience and everyone was ready to give her a standing ovation WELL BEFORE she even finished -- people started clapping eagerly at the beginning of the step sequence. I'd argue her standing O was bigger than Ashley's (though she got one too).

I am a big Gracie fan myself, but I also admire Gao for going for it after almost retiring for college. She might be this season's Ross Miner -- someone people underrate greatly but end up bringing the goods at the end -- and that would be fun because they're training mates in Boston!
 
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