State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season | Page 27 | Golden Skate

State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
I think especially how the last few years have gone, and with the Olympics next year, the USFSA is going to send the strongest overall skaters. Fortunately, the best usually place well enough to get sent anyway but I think the USFSA recognizes leaving Jeremy off the team a few years back was a mistake that they don't want to make again.

I don't know if this is true but I really hope so. I think USFSA has actually been kind of ridiculous in some instances in using 'rep scoring'- they should just score people how they deserve to be scored and then if there is a 'strongest contender' send that person anyway. For instance (assuming Ashley kicks butt at GPF and maybe even if not) if she bombs mark her as she should be marked, whether that puts her in second or 10th and then send her anyhow because she is obviously their best shot of a medal even if she tanks one competition.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Only 1st place is guarunteed the spot... tradition has the medal winners going, but that doesn't mean they have to (see ladies nationals 2008)

In 2008 Nagasu, Flatt, and Zhang were age-ineligible for the Worlds team, hence their exclusion. That shouldn't be an issue this season--all of the potential medalists can go. It's simply a question of who is good enough.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Don't get to a hasty conclusion. Gao so far had only one mistake in her 2 GP events, the 3t/3t combo in the SP at TEB, which took her out of the competition.
In comparison, Gold who's bandwagon is full house and there are no empty seats left on, had only one very good skate, 1 so , so, 1 not so good and one bad. The balance thusfar tips towards Gao in the GP.

I am just sayin...

The difference is that Gold had a stellar junior season leading up to her senior debut, and most felt it understandable that nerves plagued her at her first GP event. Gao, on the other hand, has been on the senior circuit for a while now without much outcome, and is just now proving herself a contender when the "top names" are already fixed in many fans' minds. It's much easier to bounce back after one bad skate than to start farther beneath and try to climb your way to the top.
 

Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll
Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 27, 2003
In 2008 Nagasu, Flatt, and Zhang were age-ineligible for the Worlds team, hence their exclusion. That shouldn't be an issue this season--all of the potential medalists can go. It's simply a question of who is good enough.

Actually I was thinking how Kimmie made the team.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Actually I was thinking how Kimmie made the team.

Well, I don't know exactly why, but it could have had something to do with her brilliant season so far and the fact that, with three of the four medalists ineligible, the USFSA had no choice but to look further down the placements. In any case, I don't foresee Ashley bombing at Nats this season unless she skates with an injury, as Kimmie did at the 2007 GPF. Whether she repeats as champion depends as much on her as on Gracie, Agnes, Mirai, Christina, and (maybe) Alissa.
 

herios

Medalist
Joined
Jan 25, 2004
I think especially how the last few years have gone, and with the Olympics next year, the USFSA is going to send the strongest overall skaters. Fortunately, the best usually place well enough to get sent anyway but I think the USFSA recognizes leaving Jeremy off the team a few years back was a mistake that they don't want to make again.

That is a fair point. Based on my observation, this year, Gracie is developing into an inconsistent, nervous skater. We'll see. I would not trust her in a high stake competition.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
That is a fair point. Based on my observation, this year, Gracie is developing into an inconsistent, nervous skater. We'll see. I would not trust her in a high stake competition.

How so? I found it understandable that she was nervous at SC, with it being her debut GP and all, but learned from the experience and made a great comeback at CoR just two weeks later. She didn't suddenly forget how to skate.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
I think the USFSA kind of leaned on her to do so.

That wouldn't surprise me, as Kimmie had shown far greater consistency and ability to deliver clean programs. Had her LP not been so flawed, she could have knocked Caroline off the podium.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Actually I was thinking how Kimmie made the team.

This is 2008, right? I think Hacker was supposed to be 3rd in line. There have been conflicting stories but I think this was a unique case where USFS went with Meissner based on her previous record. Wasn't there talk about it and it was determined that Hacker wasn't offered the spot in the first place? Anyway this is for another thread. let's stay current
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
That wouldn't surprise me, as Kimmie had shown far greater consistency and ability to deliver clean programs. Had her LP not been so flawed, she could have knocked Caroline off the podium.

Well, Kimmie was the defending U.S. champion, the current Skate America champion, and former world champion.

Katrina Hacker had never skated at a senior ISU event of any kind, only U.S. sectionals and regionals. Since they had to go all the way down to sixth place anyway to find someone old enough, the rule/custom about first and second at Nationals automatically go to worlds (and third if they have three spots) did not have much force that year.

I guess the unwritten rule is, if you have a world champion, send her. ;)
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
How about the CURRENT state of the US ladies after TEB? I think it just improved another step.

Wagner (or should I say Swagner?) with another knockout punch in the FS, winning convincingly over the Russian wonderjumpers. Still no 3-3 or even 2A/3T in the FS, opting for a more conservative approach. I really hope she can remain healthy. I think with this win, this cements her as a World Medal Contender, with a shot at the title (possibly dependent on comeback skaters and the shape they show up in). Meanwhile, her teammate needs to be top 10 material. Gracie Gold, perhaps?

And what about the other American at TEB, Christina Gao? She flubbed the SP but came back with another strong FS to pull up to 4th. If she didn't botch the 3-3 in the SP she may have even edged Lipnitskaya for bronze. I think this result moves her up to Wild Card position for US Nationals, possibly overtaking Nagasu as most likely spoiler (undetermined, let's see how Nagasu does at NHK). Still have Wagner and Gold as front-runners for US world team at this point
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Don't get to a hasty conclusion. Gao so far had only one mistake in her 2 GP events, the 3t/3t combo in the SP at TEB, which took her out of the competition.
In comparison, Gold who's bandwagon is full house and there are no empty seats left on, had only one very good skate, 1 so , so, 1 not so good and one bad. The balance thusfar tips towards Gao in the GP.

I am just sayin...

Well, I DID say let's WAIT and see how she does in the FS first :p

And after that, I've revised my pickings, pending NHK results. Gao is now my pick for spoiler/wild card (used to be Nagasu).

Having said that, the 3-3 mistake in the SP is a BIG one. It may be her only one so far, but that's probably the worst possible spot to make a mistake. It's enough to bury you in the standings as she found out- not even the FS of a lifetime can pull you all the way back up. It's the exact mistake that killed Wagner's chances of a World medal last year.

ETA: Oh yeah...I actually forgot about Zawadzki. So it will be an interesting battle for sure. But Gao has had 2 clean FS's so far, with Zawadzki having none (but AZ can potentially get an early lead in the SP, especially if Gao slips up like at TEB)
 
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Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll
Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 27, 2003
How about the CURRENT state of the US ladies after TEB? I think it just improved another step.

I only brought it up because someone said that 1 & 2 always go... it's not always the case as in 2008 when Hacker got 4CC but Meissner got Worlds.
 

herios

Medalist
Joined
Jan 25, 2004
How so? I found it understandable that she was nervous at SC, with it being her debut GP and all, but learned from the experience and made a great comeback at CoR just two weeks later. She didn't suddenly forget how to skate.
Because she is making too many mistakes in her LP's. And let's not forget about SLC event, that was also an internatinal competition. You guys give her the benefit of the doubt at SC, saying she had jitters. She should have not been that nervous, after her 1 competition under the belt. Her Very good SP at COR might have been the exception, because she skated first.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Because she is making too many mistakes in her LP's. And let's not forget about SLC event, that was also an internatinal competition. You guys give her the benefit of the doubt at SC, saying she had jitters. She should have not been that nervous, after her 1 competition under the belt. Her Very good SP at COR might have been the exception, because she skated first.

The thing is though, at COR Gracie matched Christina's TEB FS score, except Gao was clean with 6 triples while Gracie made a number of mistakes and only completed 4. So I do think there is something to be said about having a strong SP skater on the team because in the end I think it can help save your scores a bit at a place like Worlds should you not skate so well in the FS. I think this has been the reason Russia has been able to get 3 ladies spots the last few years, she can skate a good SP and make the final flight, then bombs her FS but being in that final group keeps her score from dipping too low and the result was that her placements ended up high enough to get the 3rd spot.

I think Gao was a bit undermarked for her her FS in Paris but it's not that surprising considering her placement after the SP and skate order. Similarly, I think if Gracie hadn't skated last in the final group at COR, and certainly had she skated in the second group, her FS score would have been lower.

At this point, Gao seems like a stronger FS skater than Gold, however, if a mistake in her SP relegates to 52 points, it means that at Worlds, a mistake or two in the SP may put her out of even the penultimate group for the FS, and even a clean SP may only get her to the penultimate group. And if she's skating in the 2nd or 3rd warmup, my fear is that she puts out a great long like she did today and just gets an okay score b/c the judges are saving the big marks for the final flight, and as a result she doesn't move up as much. Meanwhile with Gracie's SP content, she should be able to make the final flight if clean, and with a slight miss likely at least the penultimate, and then if she flubs the FS a bit her scores will likely be decent enough to keep her overall standing relatively stable.

As for Agnes we'll have to see if she can skate another good SP at NHK. She's known for coming undone in the FS, and even at COR her nearly clean program only scored 106 and just enough for her to eek out 3rd. If she can deliver another clean 60+ SP at NHK and/or Nationals, that might give her heavy edge over Christina for the reasoning I just mentioned with Gracie, unless she goes back to completely melting down in her FS in which case even a good SP could not save her and Gao would be the better choice.

Mirai hasn't skated a clean SP yet and she can really have problems in either program, hard to tell with her. So for now she's the wildcard behind Christina and Agnes for me regarding Worlds and 4CC teams. But a strong showing and good scores at NHK could change that.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Because she is making too many mistakes in her LP's. And let's not forget about SLC event, that was also an internatinal competition. You guys give her the benefit of the doubt at SC, saying she had jitters. She should have not been that nervous, after her 1 competition under the belt. Her Very good SP at COR might have been the exception, because she skated first.

The benefit of the doubt? It was clear--to me, at least--that she was nervous from the moment she stepped out onto the ice. She said she needed more experience because, regardless of whether she should have been so jittery, it was still her first major international competition as a senior. I do believe that Gracie is now taking the senior field in stride and, in these two months before Nats, will polish her FS and hit the seven triples she needs to make the podium.
 
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ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Having said that, the 3-3 mistake in the SP is a BIG one. It may be her only one so far, but that's probably the worst possible spot to make a mistake. It's enough to bury you in the standings as she found out- not even the FS of a lifetime can pull you all the way back up. It's the exact mistake that killed Wagner's chances of a World medal last year.

This. If you're going to flub a jump, for the love of all goodness flub something other than the 3-3. Those are usually placed at the beginning of the program and the initial bad impression will drag the rest of the scores down, even if the rest of the jumping passes are pristine.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
In any case, I don't foresee Ashley bombing at Nats this season unless she skates with an injury, as Kimmie did at the 2007 GPF. Whether she repeats as champion depends as much on her as on Gracie, Agnes, Mirai, Christina, and (maybe) Alissa.

What's interesting is that although Michelle was the last woman to defend her nationals title, it was Rosalynn Sumners in 1983 who was the last to defend her first U.S. title. 14 women since then have not been able to accomplish this feat! It takes some time getting used to being at the top, and many times we have seen women skate great during the season after winning the title then crumbling at Nationals the next year. I think Ashley can defend, and she is certainly the favorite, but history isn't on her side.
 
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