State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season | Page 32 | Golden Skate

State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Oh for dog's sake, it happened ONCE at her first SGP event. Knowing this kid like I do, she'll have it together for Nationals...

Maybe, but my point is that no matter how one sees it, can't change the fact that SC happened. For Gold, there are not enough data points (competitions at the top level) to determine/predict how she might perform in such conditions...so in that sense, she IS a question mark. (Hopefully SC will turn out to be an outlier and her average will be much better)

...you have to also remember that the rest of our ladies meltdown pretty regularly and that they ALL feel the pressure at Nationals. Wagner has skated consistently well in the past two years. That's why I think Wagner will win but I doubt she will be at her very best.

Fair point.

Wagner has a chance to stamp her print on American skating if she can win- but it will be no cake walk. Especially with Nagasu and Gao beginning to skate better. Even in the BEST of circumstances it's tough...I'm sure she will feel the nerves and I'm curious to see how she will handle it.

I think people are aware of that but merely have noticed that at least Ashley seems to want to be the favorite as opposed to skaters like Alissa and Mirai who never got comfortable in the position.

Probably the one fundamental difference between them. But remember- WANTING to be the favorite is different from actually BEING the favorite. It concerns mindset. (Think of a potential star who works and works, hungering for the spotlight...and once she actually gets the spotlight, finds out that there's a dark side to it too...)
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
Ashley has always WANTED to be the favorite, now she seems to enjoy BEING the favorite.

As for Gracie, as I said, I know this kid, she WILL be ready
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Just heard from Twitter that Christina GAO will be headed to the Grand Prix Final next weekend (replacing injured Lipnitskaya)...so we'll get another data point from her as well before Nationals.

(This could potentially be VERY valuable experience for her, going up against some of the world's best)
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Oops, wait a minute. Please ignore the post above.

What I meant to say was, I am very sorry to hear about Julia's injury. I hope she makes a full and quick recovery and rocks the house at Europeans and Worlds.

A nice opportunity for Christina to gain international experience.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
Lipnitskaia CAN'T rock the house at Euros and Worlds - she's too young. This competition was supposed to be her "Worlds".
 

clairecloutier

Final Flight
Joined
Aug 27, 2003
Yes!! Go Christina, what a great opportunity for her!


Just heard from Twitter that Christina GAO will be headed to the Grand Prix Final next weekend (replacing injured Lipnitskaya)...so we'll get another data point from her as well before Nationals.

(This could potentially be VERY valuable experience for her, going up against some of the world's best)
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
Ashley has always WANTED to be the favorite, now she seems to enjoy BEING the favorite.

Yes, that is what I meant. She enjoys being the favorite. It's no guarantee of anything, obviously, but it gives one hope she won't be her own worst enemy.

After Skate America, she said it was all game face that of course she was so nervous the whole time. Of course she was! Coming into Skate America as the USA champion must be fairly nerve wracking. Here's to hoping she will handle her nerves that well for the rest of the season.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
I was trying to clarify for RD who always assumes the absolute worst. :) I think if anyone's going to thrive in the driver's seat, it will be Wagner.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
US Nationals is looking like Wagner and then a battle Royale especially with Gao being given a lovely gift and chance to gain more international exposure. She will fight Gold, Nagasu, Czisny will be a huge question mark - she might surprise us and be ready or realistically without having been competitive ready may be rusty - it's hard just to compete at your nationals with no mileage this year and maybe Zhang will get her act together. I don't really think at this point Rachel Flatt is in the mix. I would venture to say right now Wagner is the fave for World Gold too. No one has skated with her power, consistency or conviction. Not Mao for sure. Liza is looking shakey and the other Russians have not performed. Suzuki hasn't been that impressive. Leonova will be lucky to be in the top 5 in Russia. Osmond still lacking experience. Carolina may not be comp[etitive sharp having missed the Grand prix. Yuna has not competed in a while. Murakami still has some juiniorish ticks. It is almost though right now it is Ashley's to lose.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
US Nationals is looking like Wagner and then a battle Royale especially with Gao being given a lovely gift and chance to gain more international exposure. She will fight Gold, Nagasu, Czisny will be a huge question mark - she might surprise us and be ready or realistically without having been competitive ready may be rusty - it's hard just to compete at your nationals with no mileage this year and maybe Zhang will get her act together. I don't really think at this point Rachel Flatt is in the mix. I would venture to say right now Wagner is the fave for World Gold too. No one has skated with her power, consistency or conviction. Not Mao for sure. Liza is looking shakey and the other Russians have not performed. Suzuki hasn't been that impressive. Leonova will be lucky to be in the top 5 in Russia. Osmond still lacking experience. Carolina may not be comp[etitive sharp having missed the Grand prix. Yuna has not competed in a while. Murakami still has some juiniorish ticks. It is almost though right now it is Ashley's to lose.

I agree with everything you said. Yuna is the big wildcard here, though. After she coped with the weight of her country on her shoulders to skate the two best performances of her career in Vancouver, there is nothing this girl can't achieve. It would not surprise me at all if she picked up where she left off and won Worlds this year, and to me she is the favorite still.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
US Nationals is looking like Wagner and then a battle Royale especially with Gao being given a lovely gift and chance to gain more international exposure. She will fight Gold, Nagasu, Czisny will be a huge question mark - she might surprise us and be ready or realistically without having been competitive ready may be rusty - it's hard just to compete at your nationals with no mileage this year and maybe Zhang will get her act together. I don't really think at this point Rachel Flatt is in the mix. I would venture to say right now Wagner is the fave for World Gold too. No one has skated with her power, consistency or conviction. Not Mao for sure. Liza is looking shakey and the other Russians have not performed. Suzuki hasn't been that impressive. Leonova will be lucky to be in the top 5 in Russia. Osmond still lacking experience. Carolina may not be comp[etitive sharp having missed the Grand prix. Yuna has not competed in a while. Murakami still has some juiniorish ticks. It is almost though right now it is Ashley's to lose.


I think it's too soon to say it's Ashley's to lose but she is looking like an early strong contender for all the above stated reasons. I thought Carolina was out for the season?
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Latest Wagner blog with an interesting quote:

http://espn.go.com/espnw/blog/post/2478/headed-sochi-olympic-preview

It was also so exciting to score well on the international scene. Sometimes in the States you have a bit of a hometown advantage and you feel like the scores are boosted, but skating in front of an international judging panel made my scores feel more legit.

So skaters think the same way the fans do...about the "home ice advantage" and higher scores, interesting.
 

clairecloutier

Final Flight
Joined
Aug 27, 2003
Interesting point from a new Yu-Na article posted in another thread:

"In Kim's absence this season, no female skater has emerged as a serious threat to the South Korean. In six Grand Prix events, Ashley Wagner of the U.S. was the only skater to score more than 190 points in total. In her previous seasons, Kim routinely topped 190 points and surpassed 200 points three times."

Ashley has certainly had an excellent season so far, but this reminds us that it's a bit early to anoint her the favorite for Worlds.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
They neglect to mention in the Yuna Kim article that there is no more spiral sequence in the short program (~3.5-5 points off the total once GOE is applied) and no leveled spirals in the long program (~2 points off the total to go to Choreographic Sequence instead). On average, that would take Kim's total score down about 7 points from where it was.
 
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