What are Mao Asada's chances of becoming Olympic Champion in 2014? | Page 4 | Golden Skate

What are Mao Asada's chances of becoming Olympic Champion in 2014?

babayaga

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 27, 2010
Please, Kim had atleast 3 significant errors over the two programs, Ando had only 1. In the short Kim didnt do her intended 3/3, practically fell on her triple lutz and still beat a clean Ando. Ando's LP was cleverly constructed to get a very high TES base value, and Kim still had more mistakes, and higher GOE on her successful elements. In general Kim's overall performances were about 55% of her Vancouver level and 70% of her normal pre Vancouver level. That same year Miki was beating Asada even when she skated very well with the triple axel (eg- Nationals and Four Continents).

Do I understand correctly that you consider Yuna's performance in 2011 Worlds as "bombing"? And yes, I am aware that Miki beat Mao that season, but this fact has nothing to do with what I said. I hope she will improve and skate better than she did 2 years ago. This means fix under-rotations and stop popping the jumps. If she starts doing that, she won't need 3A, and I believe this goal is within her reach.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
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Jun 16, 2010
Do I understand correctly that you consider Yuna's performance in 2011 Worlds as "bombing"?

Considering she has only done about 2 competitions worse since turning senior at most, yes I would say she bombed. Even if you disagree she showed up in crummy shape and her performance level was way way below her norm even in addition to all the mistakes she made, so unless you just presume she will only train a week before Worlds like she did then, the competition has no real bearing. Also since you were oddly using that as some reference to what Mao without her triple axel could beat Yu Na with, the fact the same Miki Ando a 45% Kim very nearly beat was dominating Asada all season even skating well with her triple axels has everything to do with whatever point you are trying to make by that. It is much easier for Kim to improve on her hideous (for her standards) 2011 Worlds level than Asada to improve so much to score better without triple axels then even the times she skated reasonably well with them.
 

Bartek

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 29, 2009
An opinion about Yu-Na's perforamnce level is totally objective i.e. I reckon her Homage to Korea at 2011 Worlds was superior to any FS she'd ever skated before in terms of performance level, projection, expressing emotion and theme of the program.
 

babayaga

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 27, 2010
Considering she has only done about 2 competitions worse since turning senior at most, yes I would say she bombed. Even if you disagree she showed up in crummy shape and her performance level was way way below her norm even in addition to all the mistakes she made, so unless you just presume she will only train a week before Worlds like she did then, the competition has no real bearing. Also since you were oddly using that as some reference to what Mao without her triple axel could beat Yu Na with, the fact the same Miki Ando a 45% Kim very nearly beat was dominating Asada all season even skating well with her triple axels has everything to do with whatever point you are trying to make by that. It is much easier for Kim to improve on her hideous (for her standards) 2011 Worlds level than Asada to improve so much to score better without triple axels then even the times she skated reasonably well with them.
I'll explain. As I mentioned in my first post in this thread I will consider Kim the favorite to win in 2014 if she decides to participate. If she skates clean, she wins. However, I do not agree that she has to completely bomb in order for Mao to beat her, a couple of mistakes would do (if Asada is clean). And I do not consider her skate at 2011 Worlds terrible at all and I don't think she was in bad shape. She and her coach repeatedly said she was in a perfect condition before the competition and Yuna looked very well-trained in practices.
Anyway, I do not want to turn this into Yuna/Mao thread too. Luckily there will be many more than these two fighting for the gold this time. This means that if either one makes mistakes not only they won't win, but can end up off the podium altogether. And I agree with you that it's an uphill battle for Mao at this point but I believe she's got the talent to get there.
 

guanchi

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 31, 2012
I think it would be quite difficult for Mao to win in 2014, simply because it's tougher for older skaters, and that includes Yuna. 23 is the beginning of a young woman's life, but it's pretty much the end for female skaters, esp. if their technique in jumps is unsound as Mao's is on certain important jumps like the lutz and axel ( she lacks scale on the axel compared to her earlier years and downgrades will be dinged even harsher this time). Skaters who won worlds and olympics at advanced years like Ando, Kostner, and Arakawa are the exception, but what they all had in common was excellent basic technique in their jumps. In fact, I think Gold has a better chance of medalling than Mao. And despite their struggles, Adelina and Liza still have better chance than Mao- being younger, being Russian, and knowing only CoP their whole lives. There will be no fondness or sentimentality in Sochi for any past champion imo- it will be a freeforall and only the toughest skater will be crowned, favorites be damned.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
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Jun 16, 2010
If Liza keeps improving her presentation she has a chance, and Julia definitely has a chance if she survives puberty well and keeps maturing. Adelina is a major long shot IMO. She is already not the jumper she used to be. If I were to guess now I would even predict a team of Julia, Liza, and Alena Leonova, and no Adelina, but we will see, there will probably be 5 or more with a shot to make the Russian team with possibly only 1 skater (whoever does best between now and then) a lock before Nationals.

I would like to see Mao win in 2014 in a sense but I think it is a long shot at best. I would give Yu Na and Julia better chances, and Wagner, Kostner, and Liza IF she keeps improving her presentation about the same odds.
 

guanchi

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 31, 2012
I dunno, take a look at this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSM4o5nHboc

Only a few weeks ago- her 3t looks pretty big (though wonder what happened to her 3lz-3lo), so does her flip (or is it a lutz, not sure with that entry and her slight flutzing). But I'm not sure she'll be getting a 3a any time soon (maybe never). Imo, Gold has a better chance of getting a 3a.
But Adelina still has dynamic qualites, great flexibility, her footwork may be the strongest and most dynamic of all the senior ladies, she's still quite young, and perhaps in need of better programs. She's def. not out of the picture yet.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
If Liza keeps improving her presentation she has a chance, and Julia definitely has a chance if she survives puberty well and keeps maturing. Adelina is a major long shot IMO. She is already not the jumper she used to be. If I were to guess now I would even predict a team of Julia, Liza, and Alena Leonova, and no Adelina, but we will see, there will probably be 5 or more with a shot to make the Russian team with possibly only 1 skater (whoever does best between now and then) a lock before Nationals.

I would like to see Mao win in 2014 in a sense but I think it is a long shot at best. I would give Yu Na and Julia better chances, and Wagner, Kostner, and Liza IF she keeps improving her presentation about the same odds.

We might be assuming Russia can hold on to three spots; things don't look all that great. Their ladies are facing puberty for the most part and it isn't really pretty. This could be a huge break and allow the US to regain their superiority and the three lady spots. USA could be the power house they once were but I do admit it probably will be only one of them can survive - Russia or the USA. The success of one probably or could affect the success of the other for three ladies spots.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
^ you're saying if Tuk, Julia or Adelina will not be successful after Olympics , figure skating in Russia will die down ?

I think it would be quite difficult for Mao to win in 2014, simply because it's tougher for older skaters, and that includes Yuna. 23 is the beginning of a young woman's life, but it's pretty much the end for female skaters, esp. if their technique in jumps is unsound as Mao's is on certain important jumps like the lutz and axel ( she lacks scale on the axel compared to her earlier years and downgrades will be dinged even harsher this time). Skaters who won worlds and olympics at advanced years like Ando, Kostner, and Arakawa are the exception, but what they all had in common was excellent basic technique in their jumps. In fact, I think Gold has a better chance of medalling than Mao. And despite their struggles, Adelina and Liza still have better chance than Mao- being younger, being Russian, and knowing only CoP their whole lives. There will be no fondness or sentimentality in Sochi for any past champion imo- it will be a freeforall and only the toughest skater will be crowned, favorites be damned.

I beg to differ there have been plenty of skaters in their mid or late 20's still getting successful, doesn't necessarily mean good technique
Akiko, Maria , Shizuka even Carolina have been successful
 

Bartek

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 29, 2009
Irina Slutskaya at the age of 26 and 27 went undefeated for two and a half season being rock solid on her jumps and having a night off at only one competition (unfortunately the most important one).

Years ago after her win in Torino Shizuka still nails triple-triples and does all the features for spins and bullets for higher GOE.

Carolina, Maria and Akiko have been already mentioned. Advanced age doesn't really count that much if you train properly. It's just that we don't see a lot of successful "old" skaters simply because they usually retire if they accomplish their goals at a young age. Shizuka and Akiko had been waiting for years before their moment came.
 

clairecloutier

Final Flight
Joined
Aug 27, 2003
An opinion about Yu-Na's perforamnce level is totally objective i.e. I reckon her Homage to Korea at 2011 Worlds was superior to any FS she'd ever skated before in terms of performance level, projection, expressing emotion and theme of the program.

I very much agree with this opinion, Bartek. I loved Yu-na Kim's programs at 2011 Worlds and felt a whole different level of maturity and emotional power in her skating. There were definitely some problems/omissions with the jumps, but I certainly don't see her as "bombing" at 2011 Worlds. As proved by her silver medal.
 

pangtongfan

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Jun 16, 2010
I very much agree with this opinion, Bartek. I loved Yu-na Kim's programs at 2011 Worlds and felt a whole different level of maturity and emotional power in her skating. There were definitely some problems/omissions with the jumps, but I certainly don't see her as "bombing" at 2011 Worlds. As proved by her silver medal.

Yu Na from Vancouver would have won the 2010 Worlds by about 40 points, and Yu Na from virtually every competition the 3 years preceding Vancouver would have won the 2010 Worlds by over 20 points. A silver medal in such a poor Worlds as proved by an only 5 triple Ando who can do absolutely NOTHING but jump winning those Worlds.
 

Bartek

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 29, 2009
^ Mao scored 197,58 points at 2010 Worlds. When you look at Yu-Na's results from 3 years preceding Vancouver you see that she scored more than that only twice (2009 Worlds and 2009 TEB) and you're claiming she would've won 2010 Worlds by over 20 points. That's ridiculous.
 

b-man

Final Flight
Joined
Jun 25, 2010
If I were to guess now I would even predict a team of Julia, Liza, and Alena Leonova, and no Adelina, but we will see, there will probably be 5 or more with a shot to make the Russian team with possibly only 1 skater (whoever does best between now and then) a lock before Nationals.

.

I don't think the Russian are going to leave Adelina off the National team, when she usually wins Russian Nationals over Liza, Leonova and Julia.
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
^ you're saying if Tuk, Julia or Adelina will not be successful after Olympics , figure skating in Russia will die down ?
successful

I didn't get that from the comments.

Russia losing three spots with leonova and just one non makarova skater seems unlikely. Unless you think that leonova will miss the top 10 as well as tuktamisheva and or sotnikova will also miss the top 10.
 

b-man

Final Flight
Joined
Jun 25, 2010
Yu Na from Vancouver would have won the 2010 Worlds by about 40 points, and Yu Na from virtually every competition the 3 years preceding Vancouver would have won the 2010 Worlds by over 20 points. A silver medal in such a poor Worlds as proved by an only 5 triple Ando who can do absolutely NOTHING but jump winning those Worlds.
Yu Na won in Vancouver over a mistake prone Mao by 23, both getting inflated scores. Mao skated a great program at world's, with only a 3A<, yet scored lower than Vancouver, 197 without the Vancouver inflation. Yu Na had a mistake filled Sp and FS, yet was somehow was awarded a win in the FS over Mao by 131 to 129. The audience just scratched their heads, wondering why.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Yu Na won in Vancouver over a mistake prone Mao by 23, both getting inflated scores. Mao skated a great program at world's, with only a 3A<, yet scored lower than Vancouver, 197 without the Vancouver inflation. Yu Na had a mistake filled Sp and FS, yet was somehow was awarded a win in the FS over Mao by 131 to 129. The audience just scratched their heads, wondering why.

Mao from the 2010 Olympics would have still easily won the 2011 Worlds herself. Her SP alone from Vancouver would have put her way ahead and out of reach. Ando from the 2011 Worlds was basically the same or worse as the 2010 Olympics where she herself came only 5th, and which is where here 2011 World performance would have placed her (at best) in Vancouver as well. So whatever you are talking about has nothing to do with my point in the quote.
 

janetfan

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May 15, 2009
Yu Na won in Vancouver over a mistake prone Mao by 23, both getting inflated scores. Mao skated a great program at world's, with only a 3A<, yet scored lower than Vancouver, 197 without the Vancouver inflation. Yu Na had a mistake filled Sp and FS, yet was somehow was awarded a win in the FS over Mao by 131 to 129. The audience just scratched their heads, wondering why.

Let's face it - ISU judges and tech panels are all over the place.

Any realistic attempt to figure out Mao's chances - or other skaters - depends alot on who is working the tech panel as well as the judges.
Too much still depends on where events are held.....:disagree:

Just look at Finlandia for an example. Then compare that to what we will see at the GP. Then we will see Euros and 4CC judged totally differently and Worlds again could seem different. Yet it is the same sport with the same system...... :rolleye:

But you can bet Sochi will have some amazingly high scores even if it is poorly skated.. :yes:

The judging system doesn't matter nearly as much as who is in charge of it. In case nobody noticed it's mostly the same folks who were told to cleanup their act or be banned from the Olympics.

Making something more secretive is not to be confused with making it more fair...or God forbid...more accurate.
 
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gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
But ando in 2010 was still making a huge error by doing 3 lz 3 loop that she always ured and the rules were so strict that loop was was worth 2 loop plus you add the negative goe it was a mistake. She got smarter and just did 3 lz 2 loop plus did five jumps just when the bonus started. 2011 world ando was much smarter than 2010 Olympic ando.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
. She got smarter and just did 3 lz 2 loop plus did five jumps just when the bonus started. 2011 world ando was much smarter than 2010 Olympic ando.

Not to mention 2006 Ando who showed one of the greatest meltdowns in Olympic history.

Amazingly, after such a fiasco she won Worlds the next season. :clap:

When it comes to comebacks, Bill Clinton has nothing on Miki :)
 
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