What are Mao Asada's chances of becoming Olympic Champion in 2014? | Page 2 | Golden Skate

What are Mao Asada's chances of becoming Olympic Champion in 2014?

Mao88

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 9, 2011
I am writing her off of winning the gold (well almost completely) since her PCS suck so much for the very top level of skater, and with only 1 year left to improve them can only improve so much, that it would need to be a splatfest for her to ever win the gold. A medal perhaps. You cant win the Olympics just by jumps alone anymore.

This is complete nonsense. Tuk's PCS is improving at quite a rate. Today she scored mostly 8's, with a total PCS score of 33.14.

Here is the video of her short program

Remember, she beat Kostner, Czisny, Wagner, Suzuki, Leonova, Murakami, and Nagasu last season (which incorporates the entire top 5 at 2012 Worlds!!) when her PCS was less developed than it is now. Add another 18 months of development and she will be a real threat for Gold in Sochi.

Mao has a good momentum for 2014, she looks to be back in competitive form and mentally this season

Hope your right
 
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plushyfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 27, 2012
Country
Hungary
I would like to see Mao's gold. But the russian wonder girls also have real chance.
 
Joined
Mar 11, 2011
Ice is so slippery; it is about timing too. For example Chan may have peaked too soon leaving the door for Tak or Hanyu. There may not be enough time for the Russian ballerinas to get to the top. Actually Wagner looks real good time wise and peaking. Mao is a bit concerning because she still hasn't fixed her jumps or made a real commitment do I drop some problem triples and focus on the triple axel and doing two in the free skate? Do I fix my flutz and do a triple triple for the short. She has switched her focus several times fromt he 3A to the other jumps but neither are consistent and it affects her whole program. There is still time and we really have to see HYuna skate before we make predictions of her rise to the top again. At least Johnny Weir has skated, legit or not Evan and Yuna like Miki are or were all talk. Remember Sasha Cohen well she did skate eventually but it was too late for her Olympic2010 dreams. maybe that's the problem skaters are too fickle maybe in part there isn't the money for pro comps and shows.

Yuna has track of record of keeping her words. She kept her promise to attend Worlds even when she was understandably exhausted after her victory in Vancouver -she was the first female olympic champion to go for the worlds after OGM since Christi Yamaguchi. She kept her promise to show at 2011 Worlds when most of people were all doubting and wondering if it was just all talk during the whole season, even right until Worlds started.

All I can say for now about anyone's chance for OGM: like you aptly quoted, "Ice is slippery."
 
Joined
Mar 11, 2011
Mao is a fighter and a determined skater, and she unlike MANY others has the whole package, both her technical content and presentation score could go sky high. Mao is the only skater i see as a real contender to the gold medal, at such an early stage.

don't forget this is still the first competition of the season, so all the flaws that she had here will be adjusted as the season goes by.

for me all the other skaters lack something either on the technical department or on their PCS. and then there is skaters like kim who is a big question mark for me!

I totally agree with everything you have said, I also hope that Mao will be the one to get the gold medal in 2014, knowing how hard she has and still works for it, and how much she has sacrificed to get.
if I had to make any odds I think the odds for kim would be rather slim, when I think of her two last outings and what she delivered there, add the two seasons where she practically was not competing make her chances even smaller. but everyone is entitled to there own opinion.

18 month from now is a long time, anything can happen until then, things can change very fast from now on, but right now Mao would be the skater i would put my money on. Remember she is the same skater who with her determination went from having a shaky start to the season, to be the first woman to land 3 3A at 2010 4cc, 2010 olympics, and 2010 worlds if this determination doesn't give one shivers i don't know what would give!

I so admire your dedication for your loving skater. It's really wonderful to see that Mao has wonderful supporters as likes of you:thumbsup:
 

babayaga

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 27, 2010
I think if Kim returns she will be the main threat for the gold. I don't know what percentage I would give her, but I would personally consider her the favorite. Adelina and Lisa both have chances but neither looks as good as they seemed to be a couple of years ago when everyone talked about their super-difficult triple-triples and triple axels. Lisa's triple axel never materialized and Adelina seem to have lost her 3Lz-3L completely. Hope that Lisa will at least regain her 3L-3T, it was beautiful. So these two don't have technical advantage anymore to beat Yuna if she returns. Julia's form in 18 months is a big question mark, she is going to continue growing. All of this makes it much easier for Mao to fight for medals, since she will not be too far behind Russian girls technically (even without 3-3 and 3A) and should have an advantage in PCS. Overall I think she has a pretty good chance, but it will be more clear after we see her GP performances.
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Kim Yu Na makes a lot of mistakes more than she is clean. 2010 was one of the most atypical Yuna perforamnces in her career. She was so clean at the Olympics it was remarkable and really rare. If she could repeat that again it would be amazing. So Mao could really win in 2014 just like she showed she could beat Yuna before. Not doing a 3A should be even better for Mao. So high risk even when she could do it more than she failed at it. Now she can barely do it even if she did her best one at 2012 4CC. So she never really has to do a 3A again and it is such a rare but not really benefical element to have. Mao didn't do one in her 2008 title and 1 in her 2010 title I think.

Then with Liza and Adelina and Julie i don't think its fair to say that all of their carreers will end before Sochi because of growth. I think that maintaining even a lesser level will keep them contenders and hope they do well. BUt even then Alena is not to be written off. Everyone keeps writing Alena off and saying she has no future for 2 years now and she placed 4th at 2011 worlds and second at 2012 worlds with winning the SP so don't forget Alena.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Mao skates totally clean as rare in her career as Yu Na in hers, even when she was in her prime. Yu Na does not have to skate up to her Vancouver level to win, not at all. Her level in nearly all competitions in 07/2010 was such there was little chance of anyone beating her. She has had bad luck in her career at Worlds, skating well below her usual level (not her Vancouver level) in 2007 and 2008 due to major injury, and in 2010 due to all that she had to do in the month after her Olympic Gold before Worlds (2011 she just wasnt that trained or into it). Lastly Mao without a triple axel would be pretty easy for Yu Na to beat.
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Mao skates totally clean as rare in her career as Yu Na in hers, even when she was in her prime. Yu Na does not have to skate up to her Vancouver level to win, not at all. Her level in nearly all competitions in 07/2010 was such there was little chance of anyone beating her. She has had bad luck in her career at Worlds, skating well below her usual level (not her Vancouver level) in 2007 and 2008 due to major injury, and in 2010 due to all that she had to do in the month after her Olympic Gold before Worlds (2011 she just wasnt that trained or into it). Lastly Mao without a triple axel would be pretty easy for Yu Na to beat.

It is very true that Mao has not been very clean in a lot of performances but almost always that had to with 3A failure. Not at the 2010 Olympics though. That was all because of her popping a 3T into a 1T. She has expanded the number of non axel triples she is doing. Yuna will probably have both flip and lutz and clean flip and lutzs with no edge calls like Mao. If Yuna singles a jump that is usally a pathway for a Mao victory over Yuna but if that happens it is not the 3A that allowed Mao to beat Yuna if I remember the scores correctly.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
It is very true that Mao has not been very clean in a lot of performances but almost always that had to with 3A failure. Not at the 2010 Olympics though. That was all because of her popping a 3T into a 1T. She has expanded the number of non axel triples she is doing. Yuna will probably have both flip and lutz and clean flip and lutzs with no edge calls like Mao. If Yuna singles a jump that is usally a pathway for a Mao victory over Yuna but if that happens it is not the 3A that allowed Mao to beat Yuna if I remember the scores correctly.

The only competition Mao has ever beaten Yu Na in without a triple axel was the 2008 Worlds where Yu Na was injured and skated so badly that a 5 mistake Kostner finished above her (and nearly beat Mao).
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
The only competition Mao has ever beaten Yu Na in without a triple axel was the 2008 Worlds where Yu Na was injured and skated so badly that a 5 mistake Kostner finished above her (and nearly beat Mao).

If you replaced those mao 3 axels with other triples even with edge calls would Mao still have won? I think the answer is yes because if you look at 2010 worlds she really only did one 3A! She wasn't credited for them a lot of the time. Yuna put herself in such a huge hole in 2010 SP that the 3A's Mao actually didn't do were not the deciding factor. Her performance at 2010 worlds even against post Gold medal Yuna was still more of a Mao victory and that was with 1 credited 3A.
 

mary01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Mao skates totally clean as rare in her career as Yu Na in hers, even when she was in her prime. Yu Na does not have to skate up to her Vancouver level to win, not at all. Her level in nearly all competitions in 07/2010 was such there was little chance of anyone beating her. She has had bad luck in her career at Worlds, skating well below her usual level (not her Vancouver level) in 2007 and 2008 due to major injury, and in 2010 due to all that she had to do in the month after her Olympic Gold before Worlds (2011 she just wasnt that trained or into it). Lastly Mao without a triple axel would be pretty easy for Yu Na to beat.

what the hell, Mao has skated a lot of clean programs and when i say clean i mean no popped jump no doubles, or mistakes that are visible to the naked eye, unlike kim where most of her performances consists of those kind of mistakes. by the Mao was the one skater who dominated from 2007-2009, it was after 2009 worlds that kim really began to dominate,and that beeing said it was all due to the (flaws) rules of the cop that where in kims favors, which resultet in those unreasonable scores!
and then there is all the excuses you have for kim skating below her usuel level (in your oppinion), well If we had to see it like that,I think Mao's "excusses" knowing her unusuel circumstances the last to seasons speaks for itself, so lets keep the excuses aside and just accept reality as it is. lastly you claim that Mao without the axel would be pretty easy for kim to beat, because Mao's jump layout now is getting stronger, (why) because her programs don't carry the same amount of risk without the axel. and even if she decides to include it one axel, would still be much more likely to succed, then two which also make her succes rate much higher then before. secondly Mao's even from the beginning of season has 7 tripple program and i doubt kim is going to include seven tripples, and when it comes to spins, and steps Mao also has an advantage knowing that she will likely get level 4 on her spins and steps. then there is the PCS well we all know that the judges love kim, and her PCS would therefor probably remain but Mao's PCS is not shady in comparison. so where you get this idea that Mao would be easy for kim to beat and not the other way around i don't see,but like i said before everyone is entitled to their own opinion!
 
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ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
It'll be interesting for sure.

The first thing we need to remember: it's rare for an Olympics to be as good as Vancouver. It's rare to have that many skaters give SOHL. If you're lucky, you get a 1998 where the top two do astonishingly well. Maybe a 2002 or 2006, where the winner is all right but doesn't seem to control her own destiny as solidly. But we get 1994 or 1992 or 1988 too. The other thing we need to recall is that it's rare for an Olympics to utterly conform to the narrative of the quad as this past one did (Asada vs Kim).

The reason is that I genuinely think Asada needs that kind of perfect night/skate to win. Given how rare it is.....

On the other hand, if not Mao, than who? Suzuki? Only if she wins 2013 Worlds (possible) will she have the weight of her federation behind her. Right now she seems more like Takahiko Kozuka - a skater who could easily dropped for the flavour of the month or an old stalwart (even though she's older than Mao, Asada's been in our consciousness a lot longer).

One of the Russians, perhaps? Possibly, maybe probably. The thing is that "insert name here" doesn't win. I just don't know which Russian lady would win (Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova, Tuktamisheva, Leonova....). Right now, they're a bit interchangeable (except Leonovoa, and she's the one that seems least likely to do so) to me, though I do like Sotnikova. I read elsewhere that Lipnitskaia wasn't eligible, but if they follow the same rule as they did in Vancouver (older than 15 by July 1, 2013) she's fine (her birthday is in June, as per wikipedia).

Kostner? I don't think so. I think she'll probably outdo her results in Torino and Vancouver, though.

Wagner or Gold? You know, I can see it (particularly Wagner). If either she medals at Worlds (or better yet, wins), the momentum and conviction she would have alongside the US Federation's political power would be a potent combination.

Kim? Still don't know if she's guaranteed to compete.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
what the hell, Mao has skated a lot of clean programs and when i say clean i mean no popped jump no doubles, or mistakes that are visible to the naked eye, unlike kim where most of her performances consists of those kind of mistakes. by the Mao was the one skater who dominated from 2007-2009, it was after 2009 worlds that kim really began to dominate,and that beeing said it was all due to the (flaws) rules of the cop that where in kims favors, which resultet in those unreasonable scores!
and then there is all the excuses you have for kim skating below her usuel level (in your oppinion), well If we had to see it like that,I think Mao's "excusses" knowing her unusuel circumstances the last to seasons speaks for itself, so lets keep the excuses aside and just accept reality as it is. lastly you claim that Mao without the axel would be pretty easy for kim to beat, because Mao's jump layout now is getting stronger, (why) because her programs don't carry the same amount of risk without the axel. and even if she decides to include it one axel, would still be much more likely to succed, then two which also make her succes rate much higher then before. secondly Mao's even from the beginning of season has 7 tripple program and i doubt kim is going to include seven tripples, and when it comes to spins, and steps Mao also has an advantage knowing that she will likely get level 4 on her spins and steps. then there is the PCS well we all know that the judges love kim, and her PCS would therefor probably remain but Mao's PCS is not shady in comparison. so where you get this idea that Mao would be easy for kim to beat and not the other way around i don't see,but like i said before everyone is entitled to their own opinion!

Kim's jumps are much better quality than Asada's and get much higher GOE. Her PCS are generally higher. Her spins and steps do not score lower, I am not sure where you get that idea. Mao also flutzes, has trouble with various triples, and isnt as consistent with 3/3s as a semi fit Kim. So yes Mao without the triple axel isnt beating Kim unless she bombs. It only took one discounted spin for a very good Mao to lose to Wagner without her 3axel.


Mao did not dominate 2007-2009. She did not dominate any season in her career. 2006-2007 Mao lost to Miki Ando twice, including at the Worlds. Kim won the GP final. Mao was dominant with a 3rd at Skate America, 2nd at the GP final, and 2nd at Worlds, you are crazy. In 2007-2008 Kim was the dominant skater all season until Worlds, and even at Worlds Asada won with a 2nd in the SP to Kostner and 2nd in the LP to injured Kim. In 2008-2009 Kim had the overall edge all season long, Asada came out ahead at the GP final, but otherwise Kim was the top skater from beginning to end. Asada was 1-3 vs Joannie Rochette this year, so please dont pretend she was even close to Kim even before Worlds. So in short 08-09 and 09-2010 Kim was by far the dominant skater of the season, and 06-07 and 07-08 there was no dominant skater (although 07-08 it was Kim until Worlds). Lastly the dominant Asada is the only 2 time World Champion in history to win neither of her titles by winning a single program, placing 2nd in both the short and long at both the 2008 and 2010 Worlds she won. Kim lost only 3 events from fall 2007-2011 Worlds, that in any sense of the World is both dominant and much more "dominant" than Asada has ever been.
 
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babayaga

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 27, 2010
Kim's jumps are much better quality than Asada's and get much higher GOE. Her PCS are generally higher. Her spins and steps do not score lower, I am not sure where you get that idea. Mao also flutzes, has trouble with various triples, and isnt as consistent with 3/3s as a semi fit Kim. So yes Mao without the triple axel isnt beating Kim unless she bombs. It only took one discounted spin for a very good Mao to lose to Wagner without her 3axel.

To be completely fair we should remember that Kim lost to Ando who didn't have a 3-3 and only did 5 triples in LP. Kim made only one costly error and did not bomb at all. I don't see why Mao wouldn't be able to skate at the level that Miki skated 2 years ago.
 

mary01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Kim's jumps are much better quality than Asada's and get much higher GOE. Her PCS are generally higher. Her spins and steps do not score lower, I am not sure where you get that idea. Mao also flutzes, has trouble with various triples, and isnt as consistent with 3/3s as a semi fit Kim. So yes Mao without the triple axel isnt beating Kim unless she bombs. It only took one discounted spin for a very good Mao to lose to Wagner without her 3axel.

I don't see where kim's jumps have better quality, Mao has great height on her jumps, good air positioning, good steady landings and generally solid jumps. Goe is therefor the easiest tool to manipulate the scores, one advice i would give is to look at the goe if one wants to see who the judges favor. simply because the goe on the same element can variate big time depending on the judge judging it, and yes kims steps do score lower she usuelly doesn't receive level 4, i atleast don't remember her ever receiving it, and if she has it's still not regurlary like Mao has. and yes Mao flutzes (through the edge is improving) but she still lands the lutz consistently, unlike kim who's salcow usuelly is doubled or popped. and yes maybe Mao may not by as consistent with the 3-3 since it's been awhile since she included it in her arsenal, but her overall jump layout makes up for it. and yes Mao lost alot of points because of that spin, but it's still the beginning of the season and i am pretty sure that, that spin mistake will not be repeated again. and that beeing said, we have yet to see what shape kim will show up in, and see if she will be able to deliver after her absence!
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Mao's jumps don't have the same flow out as Kim, I'd argue. It'd be interesting to do a jump by jump comparison and see which ones actually tick the GOE boxes better.
 

cosmos

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
To be completely fair we should remember that Kim lost to Ando who didn't have a 3-3 and only did 5 triples in LP. Kim made only one costly error and did not bomb at all. I don't see why Mao wouldn't be able to skate at the level that Miki skated 2 years ago.

Are you saying 2011 Worlds, which YuNa didn't want to go? It was her first competition of the season and she didn't have a sufficient motivation. She wasn't prepared sufficiently. This time, she will be much more prepared, because she learned a lesson then.
 

babayaga

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 27, 2010
Mao's jumps don't have the same flow out as Kim, I'd argue. It'd be interesting to do a jump by jump comparison and see which ones actually tick the GOE boxes better.
Please no :) I still have nightmares about all the "Mao Asada cheated jumps!!" youtube videos that were posted every day a few years ago in crazy quantities. I do agree that Yuna's jumps are more impressive.
 
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