Is this the end of 'inflation'? | Golden Skate

Is this the end of 'inflation'?

Mao88

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 9, 2011
Great performance today from Javier Fernandez. Thoroughly deserved win.

This is the second successive international defeat for Patrick Chan in a row this season. Does this therefore spell the end of what has become known as 'inflation'?
 

bigsisjiejie

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 22, 2009
Nah, probably inflation is just taking a brief intermission. Or having a smoke backstage with cousin osmondflation.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
I think its just a case of statistical "regression toward the mean." This happens all by itself in any collection of paired data, and does not required an "expalnation."

When Patrick first came on the scene nobody in amateur skating ever had such quick feet and skillful blade work. (I reserve Kurt Browning as a pro).) His perfomances were astonishing -- if only he had a quad!

A couple of season's later -- he had a quad!! Patrick was superman.

Now, well, he's still superman, but what have you done for us lately?
 

skatinginbc

Medalist
Joined
Aug 26, 2010
I think its just a case of statistical "regression toward the mean." This happens all by itself in any collection of paired data, and does not required an "expalnation."

When Patrick first came on the scene nobody in amateur skating ever had such quick feet and skillful blade work. (I reserve Kurt Browning as a pro).) His perfomances were astonishing -- if only he had a quad!

A couple of season's later -- he had a quad!! Patrick was superman.

Totally agreed with what you said except for the sentence "His performances were astonishing". Nay, his skating skills were astonishing but his performances were "......" (hehe, I'd better not say it out loud).

Now he is not the only man with quads. Nor is he the only one with quick feet. Though he might still have the quickest ones, the gap with his rivals is no longer that huge. What has he done for us lately? He has improved his artistry. Good for him. If he can improve his consistency as well, we will see inflation to the extreme :points:

I actually don't see any attitude change regarding how the judges give him scores. What has changed is his competitors' scores. They are catching up on him. If there was such thing as inflation, we are now in the era of Global Inflation.
 
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jaylee

Medalist
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
I don't think Javier's victory had anything to do with the "end of inflation." Javier could have won Skate Canada last year had he held it together in the FS. He landed two quads, but fell on the 3A, and then doubled a loop later on. Too many errors (and not enough by Patrick).

This year he again got two quads (one in the second half!), had a fall on another quad attempt, BUT got the 3A, and landed all his other jumps. He increased the base value by changing his jump layout this season in many different ways (increased the quad attempts to three, with one in the second half, the new 3F/half loop/3S sequence, etc). Also, his new FS program is brilliant and a real winner, unlike his FS last year. (I think his SP from last year was better than this year's, though.)

Patrick could have won this competition had he not made too many errors. But he usually starts the season slow, and in previous seasons, his competitors just weren't good enough that it prevented him from winning in spite of his errors. Now his competition has stepped it up and so his errors are more costly.
 

Srin Odessa

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 23, 2012
What we're seeing is escalation in the Men's discipline. Chan came into events with high PCS, three quads across two programs, a smart risk VS. reward jump layout, high levels for his technical elements, and strong rotational discipline on his quads. It's a big advantage over facing a Daisuke Takahashi who is performing a Flying Upright Level 2 spin.

Now, Chan's competitors have incorporated better transitions, multiple quads, and high level non-jump elements into their programs. It's leveled the playing field somewhat. It's also possible that Chan's technical ability may have regressed since he used to be very good at getting in the rotations for his quads.
 

prettykeys

Medalist
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
Hah, we have more recent evidence of an "astonishing performance" by Chan (2011 Canadian Nationals http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E49QK_Fto5M ) but as they say, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. The two things I regret are the slightly excessive arm flailing and the completely generic soundtrack from the Phantom...but I think that is one of the best men's LP's of all time. Many of the quad-giants of the past seemed to labour/muscle through their quads, whereas even the effortlessness of Chan's is remarkable. It is too bad he didn't have a perfect skate of his life to his Aranjuez, which would have been artistically better. I love his SP this year. PChan and Yuzuru Hanyu may turn out to be my favourite male skaters of all time!

What we're seeing is escalation in the Men's discipline. Chan came into events with high PCS, three quads across two programs, a smart risk VS. reward jump layout, high levels for his technical elements, and strong rotational discipline on his quads. It's a big advantage over facing a Daisuke Takahashi who is performing a Flying Upright Level 2 spin.

Now, Chan's competitors have incorporated better transitions, multiple quads, and high level non-jump elements into their programs. It's leveled the playing field somewhat. It's also possible that Chan's technical ability may have regressed since he used to be very good at getting in the rotations for his quads.
I very much agree with your assessment, and jaylee's analysis of Skate Canada. It was a combination of Javier doing better, and Patrick making a few too many mistakes.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
My preference would actually be for the ISU to go back and watch some tapes of results that they disagree with and revamp the scoring to produce outcomes that make more sense. I don't like seeing the judges massage the PCS to produce a result because someone didn't take enough of a hit for mistakes on the TES. If that's the case PCS should be marked accurately and mistakes need to be more penalized in the TES.
 
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