Who is Russia's best skater going into Sochi?

babayaga · Jan 6, 2013

I didn't mean RusFed wanted necessarily to slap Alena

I meant it in the sense that it must be embarrassing for her not to be even named on Euro team after a silver at worlds, it must be an awakening moment. As far as I know Russian Federation is planning to decide the worlds team after another local skate-off after Europeans, Leonova will have a chance to prove herself there. I think if she skates poorly again and Gosviani is good, Leonova might stay home altogether, but my impression is that the Fed wants to and will send her to Worlds if she stabilizes.

The best thing Gosviani can do now is to get as high score as possible at Europeans to have a chance to have a GP event next season. This could be a break-through moment for her. :yes:

pangtongfan · Jan 6, 2013

ImaginaryPogue said:
Leonova has demonstrated in the past she shouldn't be written off. This has been a bad season for her, but I maintain that point of view.

She couldnt be written off in the past since for years she was still by far the best Russian eligible skater when she was on. That is no longer the case with Elizaveta and Sotnikova age eligible for Worlds, and will be even less so next year with Lipnitskaya and Radionova as well. Now with all the wonderbabies becoming age eligible, even if none have made a huge impact yet, she will be dumped like a hot potatoe next year if he doesnt make it Worlds this year and make a strong showing.

hanca · Jan 6, 2013

Next year only Lipnitskaya for Worlds and Europeans (Radionova only GP events. she still will be too young for Europeans/Worlds). But never mind, her time will come.

And every year there will be more and more of the youngsters coming to age...and Leonova's chances will be decreasing from year to year.

pangtongfan · Jan 6, 2013

OK well Radionova being ineligible boosts Leonovas chances. Sotnikova is erratic and Lipnitskaya might already be on decline. Elizaveta T. and Radionova are the only ones who looks the real deal, even for the future. Still unless Leonova does something spectacular between now and this December, be it at Worlds this year or the GP series next year, I predict her to be off the Olympic team, no matter how well she skates at Nationals. I dont see her continuing past the 2014 season anyway, but who knows.

hanca · Jan 6, 2013

pangtongfan said:
OK well Radionova being ineligible boosts Leonovas chances. Sotnikova is erratic and Lipnitskaya might already be on decline. Elizaveta T. and Radionova are the only ones who looks the real deal, even for the future. Still unless Leonova does something spectacular between now and this December, be it at Worlds this year or the GP series next year, I predict her to be off the Olympic team, no matter how well she skates at Nationals. I dont see her continuing past the 2014 season anyway, but who knows.

But you forgot Pogorilaya. She will be senior eligible next season, I think.

And I wouldn't write off neither Adelina nor Liza. Although neither of them skated as well as during their junior years, they still skated MUCH better than Leonova. I also don't know why Lipnitskaya would be on decline if she placed at the top of the Russian pack during senior GP events. The only reason why she missed the nationals was concussion, which can happen to anyone and doesn't mean any decline.

gmyers · Jan 6, 2013

I don't know why Leonova being left off for someone who wasn't even eligible based on Tes mins would automatically be a good thing for Leonova. Could be a very bad thing and she could do worse than ever because she has been dumped already.

pangtongfan · Jan 6, 2013

hanca said:
But you forgot Pogorilaya. She will be senior eligible next season, I think.

And I wouldn't write off neither Adelina nor Liza. Although neither of them skated as well as during their junior years, they still skated MUCH better than Leonova. I also don't know why Lipnitskaya would be on decline if she placed at the top of the Russian pack during senior GP events. The only reason why she missed the nationals was concussion, which can happen to anyone and doesn't mean any decline.

Lipnitskaya seems to already be losing her famed consistency, and her GOE and PCS from the judges have been very low. I dont think they are that impressed with her at the Senior level, and I am not sure she is the kind of skater who has alot of capacity for growth. Plus with her tiny jumps that dont have great technique, if she grows any, she is dead.

gmyers · Jan 6, 2013

She would just have to stick to it. Keep skating and keep competing so maybe she could become like Mao and win an event with two kinds of triples or kostner with no lutz or 3/3 in a fs. Her jump layout should just be simplified.

pangtongfan · Jan 6, 2013

gmyers said:
She would just have to stick to it. Keep skating and keep competing so maybe she could become like Mao and win an event with two kinds of triples or kostner with no lutz or 3/3 in a fs. Her jump layout should just be simplified.

if you are referring to Lipnitskaya, Julia cannot even win a B international probably with only a few triples. She just doesnt have the quality and GOE or PCS to ever pull that off. Simplifying her content is not an option for her, she has to be doing 6 or 7 triples per program with hard triple-triples and level 4 spins to have any success.

gmyers · Jan 6, 2013

2a-3t-2t, 2a-3t was working very well for lipnitskaya: there were no triple triples in her free skated when she was consistent. So she does them and solo lutzes and flips and all that. She doesn't abandon any particular jump but obviously 3/3's were really not working for her so well even if she was injured or something. She obviously cant go to Mao or kostner jumps but she can do all the triples but 3/3 was problematic to say the least.

silverlake22 · Jan 7, 2013

pangtongfan said:
Lipnitskaya seems to already be losing her famed consistency, and her GOE and PCS from the judges have been very low. I dont think they are that impressed with her at the Senior level, and I am not sure she is the kind of skater who has alot of capacity for growth. Plus with her tiny jumps that dont have great technique, if she grows any, she is dead.

She is a fierce competitor, though, and that alone could get her far. I don't see Julia giving up without a fight, and we saw how that is keeping Tuk in the mix despite the injury and puberty woes. Anyways, if Julia doesn't pan out, some other youngster will. Radinova's mom is apparently petite and slender so TAT says she is likely to fair puberty just fine. I know she isn't old enough for Sochi, but Pogorilaya is, and her jumps are bigger and the technique better than Julia, she can do 3lz-3t and 2a-3t-2t and seems to be a strong competitor from what we've seen so far, she's also pretty tall already so the worst of growing pains may be over for her if she stays slender. There are others too - the depth in Russia is just so insane that no way will they have a weak team for Sochi, or likely the quadrennial afterward even.

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 7, 2013

silverlake22 said:
She is a fierce competitor, though, and that alone could get her far. I don't see Julia giving up without a fight, and we saw how that is keeping Tuk in the mix despite the injury and puberty woes.

With Julia though, it seems that the way she jumps (little height, fast rotation) requires that she remain tiny and slender. Liza has also grown but her jumps were always bigger so she really didn't have to change her technique much.

vera01 · Jan 8, 2013

Hmm.. I'm not sure if any of the Russian ladies would be able to win a medal at the Olympics. I think Liza T. might place 5th if she does well, but I don't think she'll be on the podium. V/T might win gold at their home Olympics, but I don't think there'll be another gold medal for Russia.

pangtongfan · Jan 8, 2013

silverlake22 said:
She is a fierce competitor, though, and that alone could get her far. I don't see Julia giving up without a fight, and we saw how that is keeping Tuk in the mix despite the injury and puberty woes. Anyways, if Julia doesn't pan out, some other youngster will. Radinova's mom is apparently petite and slender so TAT says she is likely to fair puberty just fine. I know she isn't old enough for Sochi, but Pogorilaya is, and her jumps are bigger and the technique better than Julia, she can do 3lz-3t and 2a-3t-2t and seems to be a strong competitor from what we've seen so far, she's also pretty tall already so the worst of growing pains may be over for her if she stays slender. There are others too - the depth in Russia is just so insane that no way will they have a weak team for Sochi, or likely the quadrennial afterward even.

I dont think they will have a weak team in Sochi but if they win a medal of any color, I will be surprised. I expect the ladies event to be an all veteran podium. The only one I think could win a medal there is Elizaveta. The rest no.

kwanatic · Jan 8, 2013

pangtongfan said:
I dont think they will have a weak team in Sochi but if they win a medal of any color, I will be surprised. I expect the ladies event to be an all veteran podium. The only one I think could win a medal there is Elizaveta. The rest no.

I think we need to see what this year's crop of Russians is looking like next season before we make that assumption.

None of the current ladies have the complete package right now: difficulty/technique in jumps, spins, presentation, maturity, consistency, artistry, "it" factor, etc.. Liza has the jumps and technique but lacks the presence/artistry...Julia has the "it/wow" factor and difficult jumps but lacks presentation and artistry...Elena has the jumps but lacks refinement, artistry and maturity...Anna has the jumps but lacks refinement, artistry and maturity as well...Adelina has everything to be a gold medal contender but severely lacks consistency and competitive focus.

Everyone is missing something as of now, but that can change between now and this time in 2014. It's too early to tell...

sky_fly20 · Jan 8, 2013

pangtongfan said:
Lipnitskaya seems to already be losing her famed consistency, and her GOE and PCS from the judges have been very low. I dont think they are that impressed with her at the Senior level, and I am not sure she is the kind of skater who has alot of capacity for growth. Plus with her tiny jumps that dont have great technique, if she grows any, she is dead.

Julia has been injured 3 times this season, we will see how she will do at junior nationals this last week of January
but I know she is not giving up she is more like Liza, she competed in TEB LP with numb legs and went to finish it, she is not like Adelina who is weak mentally
and those GOE's, Julia has the highest GOE spins she got 2.5 for her spins ! so even with her mistakes at TEB LP she scored 115+
she nearly went clean in Finlandia and scored a 124+ in LP

I would not start assesing her once she is healthy, junior nationals should determine her current form
she will be back

most of the Russian skaters are for 2018 and beyond, time will tell who will be the most successful of them all

gmyers · Jan 8, 2013

I used to think a Russian could jump their way onto the podium but don't think that any more. pcs and goe on spins and steps matters most. It is so far in that direction that Mao can win an Event with two triples. With Liza having horrible pcs that is getting worse not even she could podium. Sotnikova has nerves and pops and falls a lot everywhere! It's all Mao Yuna and kostner because pcs is what's important.

sky_fly20 · Jan 8, 2013

gmyers said:
I used to think a Russian could jump their way onto the podium but don't think that any more. pcs and goe on spins and steps matters most. It is so far in that direction that Mao can win an Event with two triples. With Liza having horrible pcs that is getting worse not even she could podium. Sotnikova has nerves and pops and falls a lot everywhere! It's all Mao Yuna and kostner because pcs is what's important.

Liza won nationals, and lets see her losing weight will pay off by Euros, Sotnikova though Im done wih her, she could be another Kostner maybe by 2018 or beyond, but for now these girl is just so weak mentally, nerves and looks always scared on the ice, 1 already know she will fall 1 time in SP and 2 or 3 times in LP before she even steps on the ice. Julia will get higher pcs, she had not had a good LP since Finlandia , next season should determine how she will do, she did not show her full potential this season unfortunately due to injuries

gmyers · Jan 8, 2013

Liza's best hope is if judges start giving her higher pcs. I hope she can just get it and not have to change coaches and stuff.

evangeline · Jan 8, 2013

gmyers said:
Liza's best hope is if judges start giving her higher pcs. I hope she can just get it and not have to change coaches and stuff.

If Liza wants the judges to start giving her higher PCS, she better start working on things like ice coverage, skating skills and choreography. Improving in areas like choreography, however, may necessitate a coaching change.

Who is Russia's best skater going into Sochi?

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