Grand prix final predictions? | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Grand prix final predictions?

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
You know, each of these four disciplines presents some fascinating questions here and that will play out for the rest of the season. So, from least interesting to most interesting (with predictions)

Ladies
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Akiko Suzuki
3. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva
4. Mao Asada
5. Kiira Korpi
6. Christina Gao

I think the top two could flip around; that the next three will be in any order and that Gao will be last. Wagner winning this would be huge. I think it would erase any doubts that she’s the real deal this season – an honest to goodness Champion skater. Hey, the last time the Worlds were in Canada, an American won (Meissner, 2006). And the time before that (Kwan, 2001). And the time before that (Kwan, 1996). And the time before that (Trenary, 1990). Just sayin’.

Suzuki winning this would be equally huge. It would force the hand of the Japanese federation, give her a real boost overall, and just invigorate the rest of the season for us fans. That’s my wish. A strong second would be terrific, but not have the same effect.

Tuktamisheva wants to rubber stamp a trip to Euros/Worlds, and a medal here’s the ticket. Asada wants to erase a poor victory with a great skate. Korpi’s the stealth bomber here. She can out-PCS Tuktamisheva and Suzuki and out-TES Asada. She could sneak in to steal bronze if she has a major skate and the others falter.

Gao will be last and thrilled with the experience of competing in the GPF, something none of us saw at the beginning of the season.

Pairs
Okay, this is a truly fascinating event. Not because it’s a contest for gold – V/T will step onto the ice and on top of the podium in the same moment. But because afterwards, it’s just a massive scramble.. So, from bottom to top....

In sixth, we’re gonna see Mt/M. No disrespect intended, but they haven’t been skating THAT well. It’s disappointing, because they have made MASSIVE improvements in the off season – her form is a lot better, they’re going for a broader range of choreography and that SP especially is just dense with complex movements. They’re not in danger of losing that 2nd spot, not really, but the way they’re skating won’t be enough for Canada to get a third spot at Worlds. Which is disappointing.

In fifth, it’ll be Pang/Tong. They aren’t skating THAT well, and their PCS advantage won’t be enough to overcome poor BV.

In fourth, the unfortunate K/S reside. I think it’ll be telling where they place in the grand scheme of Russian politicking. If they start getting beaten by B/L, it’s all over. They’ll make it to Sochi as also-rans. If they don’t, the race for Sochi becomes more interesting.

In third, I believe D/R have enough. A well skated D/R will have something above 33/63 in BV’s for their two programs and will earn positive GOEs on everything but the SBS Lutz (and that’s not a given). They are REALLY jamming the technical element content, but they’re also pushing themselves with their transitions and choreography – very demanding. On the one hand, that means they’re unlikely to skate clean. On the other hand, it means they can absorb errors VERY easily. Don’t be surprised to see a clean D/R break 65/130. They won’t be clean, but the marks will still be there.

In 2nd, it’s B/L. Hopefully they take the momentum of the NHK and run with it. They aren’t a great team by any means, and they’ve got to hope for a lenient technical caller on their jumps, but their lifts and twist are GOE earners, and their PCS are fine for a team with very little in the way of presentation (which is weird because of their history).

So

1. Volosozhar/Trankov
2. Bazarova/Larionov
3. Duhamel/Radford
4. Kavaguti/Smirnov
5. Pang/Tong
6. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch

Though really, any organization from 2-5 wouldn’t surprise me.

Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Pechalat/Bourzat
4. Boborova/Soloviev
5. Cappellini/Lanotte
6. Ilynikh/Katsalpov

D/W: Peak earlier and longer, have the highest TES and PCS of the season. V/M need to be completely on form to beat them, and I don’t think we’ll see that yet.

V/M: Are they gonna be closer to D/W or P/B? P/B’s first competition score was greater than V/M’s, and that never happens.

P/B: Shame that their work ethic is in service to two mediocre programs, but they feel the fire and believe they can challenge the top two. They will be working like mad.

B/S: How close can they get to P/B. More important to separate themselves away from I/K and close the gap on P/B though. Huge improvements in the off season will aid that.

C/L: Their first GPF since the Olympic season. They need to be closer to the top two in Europe. I’m curious if they can do it.

I/K: It’s an honour to be here.....

Men

This is a genuine five way race for gold, I think.

1. Yuzuru Hanyu
2. Patrick Chan
3. Daisuke Takahashi
4. Javier Fernandez
5. Takahiko Kozuka
6. Tatsuki Machida

Yuzuru Hanyu: Massive BV and great GOEs when he’s clean; errors easily absorbed; PCS higher than what he deserves. The future star earning those dominant scores today

Patrick Chan: Improved artistry leading to higher PCS earlier (92.70 at CoR is his best ever internationally). I think he’ll peak at the GPF this season, contrary to history. If he’s clean, he’ll have a tremendous lead, but let’s be honest.....

Daisuke Takahashi: Will be working like mad to match Hanyu, but will likely require mistakes from the top two and a WTT level skate.

Javier Fernandez: Prone to mistakes still, and his errors can be deleterious.

Takahiko Kozuka: The third man in a nation with many third men. Would need a SOHL but he can do it.

Tatsuki Machida: The fourth man in a nation with many third men.
 

KKonas

Medalist
Joined
Oct 31, 2009
Forget GPF predictions. What I want to know is if the Russians have finally connected the building housing the rink to the sewer system! The building was completed but some engineer forgot to connect it to the sewer system. So is it outhouses for the skaters/attendees at the GPFinal or the luxury of inside toilets?
 

Poodlepal

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 14, 2010
My predictions for some of the podiums. Without Universal Sports, I did not see any pairs at all, so I can't tell you that.

For the women:
1. Ashley Wagner. Like Alissa and Jeremy Abbott, she'll get this, but will she medal at Worlds? Those two never did.

2. Akiko. The judges like her type of skating. Should do well

3. Mao. These three can come in any order, though. Mao may win if she lands the axel.

Men:
1. Patrick. He'll fall, but still win.
2. Yuzuru. He'll fall but still come in 2nd.
3. Daisuke. He won't fall, but the judges will get mad at something else.

Dance
1. Virtue and Moir. It will be close, but they will be come up ahead of Davis and White
2. Davis and White
3. Don't know. Again, didn't see much on tv this year.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Asada wants to erase a poor victory with a great skate.

Interesting comment given that you predict Mao coming 4th. There is NO way Mao with even a "good" skate will be 4th in this field. In fact I will say for certain there is no way with a good skate she will be any lower than 2nd. Suzuki, Korpi, and the Russians cant beat even a good Mao right now, let alone a great one. The GP final made it clear who the JSF favors, if Mao produces a clean short with a triple-double and even 5 triples in the LP, Suzuki has no chance to beat her even if she skates lights out in both programs. Who knows if Wagner could even beat a 5 triple Mao or not, her quality marks will likely be the highest in this particular group.


V/T will step onto the ice and on top of the podium in the same moment.

LOL!


Patrick Chan: Improved artistry

Sorry I definitely dont see that.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
re: Mao

Definitely a contradiction on my part. A good skate by Mao is definitely podium worthy. Definitely some hopediction there re: Suzuki.

re: Chan

Nor do I, truthfully, but everyone else seems to see it. But I find him better in that department than his internet-rep, so take that with a grain of salt.
 

StellaCampo

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 19, 2011
Men:
1) Chan (improved artistry? Puccini's music may give that impression)
2) Hanyu (despite all his shortcomings)
3) Dai (despite his artistry)

Ladies:
1) Wagner (she is not my personal preference)
2) Asada (if she can double convinsingly)
3) suzuki (even if she singles the lutz in the short)

Pairs:
1) V/T (give them better programmes)
2) P/T (if they land their jumps)
3) D/R (not very artistic but tech will help)

Dance:
1) V/M (I don't know why they always beat D/W)
2) D/W (I don't know what they are lacking)
3) not sure
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
V/M have never beaten D/W at this competition, fwiw. Last season, they were evenly matched with victories with 2 each.
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Reminder of the asterisk to last year's GPF:
As the ISU later acknowledged, Virtue/Moir's GPF FD should have beaten Davis/White's. Because of a calculation error, V/M were not credited with the full number of points that one of their lifts deserved.
But Davis/White still would have won the gold even without the error.
 

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2006
Men:
1) Chan (improved artistry? Puccini's music may give that impression)
2) Hanyu (despite all his shortcomings)
3) Dai (despite his artistry)

i agree with your pics for the men.
Women,

Suzuki (two clean skates)
Ashley (small error in the SP)
Mao (doubles)

Dance:

Voir
Marlie
?

Pairs:
no idea. I havn't been following them this year. are Aliona and Robin still the ones to beat?
 

Bluebonnet

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
Takahashi will not have a WTT level skate because that was an one quad LP. This time he has a two quads with one in combo LP. We haven't seen him skate it clean yet so far. Very likely he will under rotate, two footed, or fall on a quad or two.

Chan might double some jumps again if not fall. It seems his new strategy this season to double the jumps instead of fall/falls.

Hanyu won't be clean in his LP. But Hanyu is capable of having another near world record SP. The LP might be Chan's to lose.

Kozuka is likely to save his SOHL at the time of the Worlds. Unless he changes his strategy from two quads LP to one quad LP, he is not going to skate clean in LP.

Fenandez is a little like a headcase and seems an early season skater. He might not skate as great as he did at SC.

Machida might be the only one who could skate clean in both SP and LP.

All of them are packaging their programs technically touching or exceeding their own abilities. There is a good chance that none of them has a clean competition. Also, there is a chance for some of these skaters to adopt Chan's method in doubling the jumps instead of fall/falls. They might learn from Chan as quickly as some of them have adopted his 3Lz-1Lo-3S.:p I'm not going to predict the placement because I'm not good at it.
 
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Aesthetics

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 29, 2012
I saw the link given by yude, and this is what Brian Orser said about Hanyu: “Thinking of Japanese Nationals is more important. I would really enjoy in between GPF and Nationals, in Toronto we'll have amazing works.”

I’m confused. It looks like Orser definitely thinks he’ll help Hanyu prepare for the JN in 2 weeks in Toronto between GPF and JN, then it’s also 2 weeks between NHK and GPF and shouldn’t Hanyu also going to Toronto to prepare for the GPF? If it’s for the jet lag thing mentioned by some posters, then after GPF Hanyu will fly from Sochi to Toronto and then to Japan-it’s worse.

Why the different approaches before GPF and JN? Could it be Orser is giving up on GPF and skip to JN? or JN is more difficult that Hanyu thinks he can’t make the top three? I don’t know what to think if Hanyu stays in Sendai and not go to Toronto to prepare for GPF just because he has to take exams. He has a good chance of medal or even gold at GPF if he prepares well for it. To give away the chance for the exam is :confused: If I were him I wouldn’t do that.
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
Which exams are they? Are they ones that are critical to his whole future after skating? He is 17, almost 18. Could be like college entrance exams or something (I really don't know how that works in Japan).
 

giulia95

Medalist
Joined
Jun 19, 2012
I don’t know if it may help but in this Yuzu’s NHK FS YTvideo http://www.youtube.com/all_comments?v=WLg1FxmhyNw a viewer translated the interview to italian language. The viewer translated “ ora vuole continuare ad allenarsi lì a Sendai” which literally means “ now (Yuzu) wants to continue his training here in Sendai.” Is it correct?

thanks in advance :)
 

StellaCampo

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 19, 2011
I don’t know if it may help but in this Yuzu’s NHK FS YTvideo http://www.youtube.com/all_comments?v=WLg1FxmhyNw a viewer translated the interview to italian language. The viewer translated “ ora vuole continuare ad allenarsi lì a Sendai” which literally means “ now (Yuzu) wants to continue his training here in Sendai.” Is it correct?

thanks in advance :)

What Yuzuru said at the end was: "ato ha mata modotte renshu shitaina to omotte imasu"
ie After this I want to return (where? not clear) and practise.
He certainly didn't say in this clip that he wanted to CONTINUE practising HERE IN SENDAI.
 
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