Second lady to represent US in Sochi? | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Second lady to represent US in Sochi?

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
I tend to agree with ptf - that top ten for the 2nd US lady is reasonable to expect if she skates at or near par. The best ladies competition of our time was the Vancouver Olympics and the USA results there would've been enough (4th for Nagasu, 7th for Flatt). I just don't see it as a lock
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I tend to agree with ptf - that top ten for the 2nd US lady is reasonable to expect if she skates at or near par. The best ladies competition of our time was the Vancouver Olympics and the USA results there would've been enough (4th for Nagasu, 7th for Flatt). I just don't see it as a lock

I agree it isnt a lock. However IMO it should happen. If it doesnt happen it will be a dissapointment, and almost certainly because one of the two U.S ladies failed to skate well. Considering Wagner, a revived Nagasu, and a usually tough Gold, would all be expected to skate well (and Mrs. Consistent Gao would be expected to deliver with even more certainty if she in an upset beats out Nagasu and Gold for the 2nd spot, but in her case her scoring potential would be a bigger worry than those other 2 ladies), it would both be a surprise and dissapointment this year IMO if a U.S lady has a poor competition, which again is the only way I see them not getting 3 spots back.
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
OK, let's use the same method as for dance. "Reasonably well" means as well as they did at their best ISU competition so far:
http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2012-13/sbtslto.htm

1 196.80 Mao ASADA JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
2 190.63 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
3 185.22 Akiko SUZUKI JPN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
4 182.86 Elena RADIONOVA RUS ISU JGP Austria 2012 15.09.2012 JUNIOR
5 179.62 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
6 179.31 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
7 177.19 Kiira KORPI FIN ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
8 176.68 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
9 176.45 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
10 175.03 Gracie GOLD USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
11 174.25 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012

12 174.11 Zijun LI CHN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
13 168.96 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
14 168.41 Hannah MILLER USA ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012 JUNIOR
15 168.04 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
16 167.40 Anna POGORILAYA RUS ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012 JUNIOR
17 166.61 Agnes ZAWADZKI USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
18 162.65 Angela WANG USA ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2012 06.10.2012 JUNIOR

The US has only 2 spots-chances are the second spot will go to Zawadzki, Gold, Nagasu, or Gao.

So if we drop out Radionova & Pogorilaya (who can't compete because they are too young) and Miller and Wang, who will likely go to Junior Worlds, we have the following list and rankings:

1 196.80 Mao ASADA JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
2 190.63 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
3 185.22 Akiko SUZUKI JPN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
4 179.62 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
5 179.31 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
6 177.19 Kiira KORPI FIN ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
7 176.68 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
8 176.45 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
9 175.03 Gracie GOLD USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
10 174.25 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012

11 174.11 Zijun LI CHN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
12 168.96 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
[/B]13 168.04 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012

So it is very possible that the US girls will earn 3 spots, if they skate their best. A 4th and a 9th will do it. or a 3rd and a 10th. or a 2nd and an 11th or a 1st and a 12th.

An additional issue is whether Zijun Li is healthy or not. There have been some questions (unanswered) about whether she is injured or not.

One should assume that Osmond will get exactly the same home crowd advantage in London, Ontario, as at Skate Canada-and the same possible excessive pressure that a home crowd can bring.

Once you get below Murakami, leaving out juniors, the next score is

20 160.52 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012 (eight points below Murakami)

Now we can assume that Yu Na Kim & Carolina Kostner will be at the top of this list along with Mao, but 4th is doable for Wagner again (with a good performance). The question is whether Gold/Nagasu/Gao/whomever can make 9th. Looking at the numbers, yes, it is definitely possible with a good performance.
 
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pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
There is a good chance Wagner will medal as well. We all know if everyone skated cleanly the podium would be Kim, Kostner, and Asada in some order (well probably that exact order if they all are attempting their current content, but Asada imparticular might wise up and upgrade by then). However one of those three will likely have some problems, and a meltdown from one of Kostner or Asada wouldnt even be a surprise. By meltdown even Asada`s NHK performance would count as that, as no way she is medaling at Worlds with a free skate like that one. So Wagner if she returns to her whole of 2012 consistency until the GP final, which I expect and hope she will, has a good chance to capatilize on the almost inevitable problems of one of the 3 favorites and sneak in for atleast a bronze.

Suzuki is the only other one close to Wagner, but the GP final indicates Wagner will beat Suzuki all things fairly equal, even with a triple or so less, and Suzuki's poor National performance will mean even less support for her from her federation which will be firmly pushing for points for Asada. Wagner has the full backing of her own federation as their #1, barring something shocking at Nationals (and maybe even still inspite of it that happened, as long as she is still going to Worlds), which is her obvious edge over Suzuki, even if she arguably isnt any better a skater right now. That plus she is the more consistent of the two.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
It is going to be close. I can easily see Yuna, Mao, Akiko, Ashley, Caro, Kiira and 3 Russians finishing ahead of our second lady. I expect Ashley to finish 3-4 and our second lady to finish 9-10, so the total might be somewhere between 12-14.
 

jenaj

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 17, 2003
Country
United-States
We will have to see how Ashley does at Nationals. She has been very consistent since Nationals last year. If that continues, I agree she will finish at least fourth. Julia Lipnitskaya isn't old enough for Worlds, is she? But Yu Na has to be factored in. So if we assume the top five (in some order) are Yu Na, Mao, Akiko, Ashley, Carolina, I think the other US lady has a very good chance to finish in the top 9. Only Liza T., if she skates well, is likely to be a sure finisher above Gold or Nagasu. Kiira is inconsistent. Osmond is a first-timer at World's. Likewise, Zijun Li. (Likewise, Gracie Gold, but she does have those jumps) Adelina and Kanako have not been consistent and have scored below Gold and Nagasu's less-than-perfect efforts. My analysis, however, changes if Gao is the second US lady. I think she would finish no better than 10th.
 
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pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I like Gao but after her last couple events I think the USFSA will do everything possible to ensure Gold or Nagasu gets that 2nd spot even if Gao outskated them (eg Gold and Nagasu fell several times) at Nationals. The same way they will do everything possible to ensure Wagner wins and does not go to Worlds as anyone other than the undisputed U.S #1, anything else would be foolish at this point. The skaters that have the most scoring potential and are likely to bring the best results and hopes for Worlds are fairly obvious at this point. The only truly even battle going in will be the Gold and Nagasu one, where I think whoever skates cleaner that day will make it.
 

suzukifan27

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 24, 2012
OK, let's use the same method as for dance. "Reasonably well" means as well as they did at their best ISU competition so far:
http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2012-13/sbtslto.htm



The US has only 2 spots-chances are the second spot will go to Zawadzki, Gold, Nagasu, or Gao.

So if we drop out Radionova & Pogorilaya (who can't compete because they are too young) and Miller and Wang, who will likely go to Junior Worlds, we have the following list and rankings:

1 196.80 Mao ASADA JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
2 190.63 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
3 185.22 Akiko SUZUKI JPN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
4 179.62 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
5 179.31 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
6 177.19 Kiira KORPI FIN ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
7 176.68 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
8 176.45 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
9 175.03 Gracie GOLD USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
10 174.25 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012

11 174.11 Zijun LI CHN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
12 168.96 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
[/B]13 168.04 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012

So it is very possible that the US girls will earn 3 spots, if they skate their best. A 4th and a 9th will do it. or a 3rd and a 10th. or a 2nd and an 11th or a 1st and a 12th.

An additional issue is whether Zijun Li is healthy or not. There have been some questions (unanswered) about whether she is injured or not.

One should assume that Osmond will get exactly the same home crowd advantage in London, Ontario, as at Skate Canada-and the same possible excessive pressure that a home crowd can bring.

Once you get below Murakami, leaving out juniors, the next score is

20 160.52 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012 (eight points below Murakami)

Now we can assume that Yu Na Kim & Carolina Kostner will be at the top of this list along with Mao, but 4th is doable for Wagner again (with a good performance). The question is whether Gold/Nagasu/Gao/whomever can make 9th. Looking at the numbers, yes, it is definitely possible with a good performance.

Your math is a complete mess. As you said, Yu Na and Carolina will be highly likely ahead of Wagner, which automatically means Wagner's ranking would be 4th and Mira's ranking would be 9th. Under this best case scenario, the total point for the top 2 Americans would be 12-13 excluding the young Russian. Again America is on the bubble. The chance is less than 50/50 to get the 3rd spot.
 

suzukifan27

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 24, 2012
There is a good chance Wagner will medal as well. We all know if everyone skated cleanly the podium would be Kim, Kostner, and Asada in some order (well probably that exact order if they all are attempting their current content, but Asada imparticular might wise up and upgrade by then). However one of those three will likely have some problems, and a meltdown from one of Kostner or Asada wouldnt even be a surprise. By meltdown even Asada`s NHK performance would count as that, as no way she is medaling at Worlds with a free skate like that one. So Wagner if she returns to her whole of 2012 consistency until the GP final, which I expect and hope she will, has a good chance to capatilize on the almost inevitable problems of one of the 3 favorites and sneak in for atleast a bronze.

Suzuki is the only other one close to Wagner, but the GP final indicates Wagner will beat Suzuki all things fairly equal, even with a triple or so less, and Suzuki's poor National performance will mean even less support for her from her federation which will be firmly pushing for points for Asada. Wagner has the full backing of her own federation as their #1, barring something shocking at Nationals (and maybe even still inspite of it that happened, as long as she is still going to Worlds), which is her obvious edge over Suzuki, even if she arguably isnt any better a skater right now. That plus she is the more consistent of the two.

What a mess, I mean your analysis. Wagner will not be able to medal. She's not going to beat Kostner, Kim, Asada based on their performances this season. Wagner's trump card is her so-called 'consistency'. It is already running out of steam. Suzuki will likely beat Wagner as well.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
What a mess, I mean your analysis. Wagner will not be able to medal. She's not going to beat Kostner, Kim, Asada based on their performances this season. Wagner's trump card is her so-called 'consistency'. It is already running out of steam. Suzuki will likely beat Wagner as well.

I'd say Ashley has a shot. Kim will be tough to beat with her content. Carolina will outrank her on PCS, as will Asada, but I think Ashley has a better shot of beat either of them. Ashley and Mao were virtually tied in the SP at GPF. The errors in the FS cost her about 12 points (BV in 3S, 2A, plus a level in steps as she clearly had a tough time after that horrid 2A fall and fall deductions). She would have been striking distance of Mao. And she still has points left on the table with her spin levels -- she's capable of level 4s.

So far Wagner is 2-0 to Suzuki, so take that for what it's worth.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I'd say Ashley has a shot. Kim will be tough to beat with her content. Carolina will outrank her on PCS, as will Asada, but I think Ashley has a better shot of beat either of them. Ashley and Mao were virtually tied in the SP at GPF. The errors in the FS cost her about 12 points (BV in 3S, 2A, plus a level in steps as she clearly had a tough time after that horrid 2A fall and fall deductions). She would have been striking distance of Mao. And she still has points left on the table with her spin levels -- she's capable of level 4s.

So far Wagner is 2-0 to Suzuki, so take that for what it's worth.

Good analysis. I agree Wagner has no shot to beat Kim, barring a total disaester from Kim, not just a couple errors. However both Kostner and Asada are beatable if they made a couple mistakes and Wagner skates relatively clean, which is perfectly plausible. Suzuki could beat Wagner of course (most likely requiring Wagner to make some mistakes, especialy as Suzuki has never done 2 clean programs), but there is no reason whatever to think she has the edge on Wagner now, if anyone is going down it is her after coming 4th at her own Nationals for that matter.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Good analysis. I agree Wagner has no shot to beat Kim, barring a total disaester from Kim, not just a couple errors. However both Kostner and Asada are beatable if they made a couple mistakes and Wagner skates relatively clean, which is perfectly plausible. Suzuki could beat Wagner of course (most likely requiring Wagner to make some mistakes, especialy as Suzuki has never done 2 clean programs), but there is no reason whatever to think she has the edge on Wagner now, if anyone is going down it is her after coming 4th at her own Nationals for that matter.

Also another thing to consider is that Wagner tends to add more transitions as the season goes on. That will also boost her PCS score.

And one cannot underestimate pure grit. She won TEB with a head cold and pulled out a beautiful 3F after that terrible 2A fall at GPF, which helped her secure the silver medal. The 3S error in GPF was purely a matter of rushed timing.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I'd say Ashley has a shot. Kim will be tough to beat with her content. Carolina will outrank her on PCS, as will Asada, but I think Ashley has a better shot of beat either of them.

Caro and Mao can be error-prone, more so than Ashley. Particularly if Caro attempts content to try to match Yuna, I could see Kostner having a complete meltdown. I think it's likely Ashley will be off the podium, very possible she could beat one of those two, and unlikely she would beat both. Really my worry is our second skater because in the last 5 years Wagner (2008), Czisny (2009 & 2012), Flatt (2010 & 2011), or Nagasu (2010) have all finished 7th or worse at Worlds which doesn't get the job done unless another skater does well. It looks like we will need someone to finish 9th and Mirai or Gracie would have to skate really well to achieve that.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
I'm a little skeptical of this sudden confidence in Wagner. Why assume she'll maintain this level throughout this season and the next? She and her peers have shown no sign of such long-term consistency--neither Nagasu, Czisny or even Flatt. I think it's rather premature to declare her the 2013 and 2014 US National Champ.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
I'm a little skeptical of this sudden confidence in Wagner. Why assume she'll maintain this level throughout this season and the next? She and her peers have shown no sign of such long-term consistency--neither Nagasu, Czisny or even Flatt. I think it's rather premature to declare her the 2013 and 2014 US National Champ.

Nothing's guaranteed, of course. But Ashley earned my confidence with each and every competition from when she won Nationals. She won 4CC, got the highest Worlds placement since Kimmie Meissner in 2007, won Japan open, won both her GPs and toughed it out at the GPF to get the silver medal.

Let me put it another way -- Since U.S. Nationals, she has only been off the podium once -- at Worlds. She's been OTP 7/8 or 87.5 percent. That is probably the best hit percentage out of all the U.S. Ladies. And unlike the other girls, she thrives on competition and just has pure grit.

No, I'm not going to precrown her as 2014 U.S. Champion, but she certainly has taken her destiny in her own hands.

The other thing that generated confidence in me is the smart development strategy by her team. It's clear they are being strategic RE: putting in 3-3/2A-3T and they have focused on developing clean programs and getting the levels before adding the stuff. This is certainly an improvement over the let's see if it sticks strategy Alissa was doing regarding the 3-3or the stupid "skate while injured" strategy Rachael's team was OK with. And unlike Mirai in the past, Ashley is not scared of being first.
 
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skateluvr

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 23, 2011
I like Gao but after her last couple events I think the USFSA will do everything possible to ensure Gold or Nagasu gets that 2nd spot even if Gao outskated them (eg Gold and Nagasu fell several times) at Nationals. The same way they will do everything possible to ensure Wagner wins and does not go to Worlds as anyone other than the undisputed U.S #1, anything else would be foolish at this point. The skaters that have the most scoring potential and are likely to bring the best results and hopes for Worlds are fairly obvious at this point. The only truly even battle going in will be the Gold and Nagasu one, where I think whoever skates cleaner that day will make it.
I agree what about Agnes tho?
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
I think Korea has a better chance of getting 3 spots than the US ladies this year since it's sending only Yuna to the Worlds, and she can probably place top 2...definitely top 3, given her technical content, unless she bombs for some reason. And I find the situation extremely ironic and regrettable as Korea doesn't really have any decent sr-level skaters...except Yuna.

I think Ashley will do pretty well, but the problem I see is how well the lady #2 is going to do.
 

jjane45

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 23, 2009
An additional issue is whether Zijun Li is healthy or not. There have been some questions (unanswered) about whether she is injured or not.

LI Zijun is in excellent shape, winning Chinese Nationals last month with 2 strong programs. Do you happen to mean ZHANG Kexin? She is not competing this season.
 
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b-man

Final Flight
Joined
Jun 25, 2010
Caro and Mao can be error-prone, more so than Ashley. Particularly if Caro attempts content to try to match Yuna, I could see Kostner having a complete meltdown. I think it's likely Ashley will be off the podium, very possible she could beat one of those two, and unlikely she would beat both. Really my worry is our second skater because in the last 5 years Wagner (2008), Czisny (2009 & 2012), Flatt (2010 & 2011), or Nagasu (2010) have all finished 7th or worse at Worlds which doesn't get the job done unless another skater does well. It looks like we will need someone to finish 9th and Mirai or Gracie would have to skate really well to achieve that.

As far as the 2nd US skater, Mirai is 8th on the ISU's season's best list, and Gracie 10th. You would need to add in Kim and Kostner who are not yet on the list, and remove Radionova who is 4th on the list but not age eligible. That would move Mirai to 9th and Gracie to 11th. So Mirai or Gracie would need to skate well as you said for and 8th or 9th placement, but it is well within their capability.
 
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