Renewed Czisny ready to return to ice in Omaha | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Renewed Czisny ready to return to ice in Omaha

amc987

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 12, 2012
I disagree. Czisny's planned content could put her in the top 5 at Worlds, in that second tier behind YuNa/Caro/Mao. I think it is extremely unlikely that she would skate clean given her form the last few years but I don't think the sport has surpassed her peak level by any means.

This. There are only 6 age-eligible skaters who can consistently get their 2A/3Ts or 3/3s ratified: Yuna, Gracie, Kaetlyn, Elizaveta, Carolina, and Akiko. Akiko, Carolina, and Yuna can match Alissa on presentation, footwork, spirals, and can come close to her in spins. Those skaters have a clear advantage over Alissa if they and Alissa skate clean programs. The others--Gracie, Kaetlyn, and Elizaveta--all have deficiencies in spins, spirals, and overall presentation (they still look immature on the ice in spite of their impressive technical content) that somewhat nullifies their technical advantage. In 2010-2011 Akiko, Carolina, and Yuna competed along with Miki Ando (who had similar technical prowess), Rachael Flatt (who could also get her 2A/3T or 3/3 ratified at the time), Mao, etc. If Alissa was good enough to place fifth at Worlds that year--and let's be honest, if the judges hadn't lowballed her in the short program and on her component scores in the long, she would have deservedly snagged the bronze medal--she can do just fine in the 2013 environment as long as she skates clean programs.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
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Jun 16, 2010
I disagree. Czisny's planned content could put her in the top 5 at Worlds, in that second tier behind YuNa/Caro/Mao. I think it is extremely unlikely that she would skate clean given her form the last few years but I don't think the sport has surpassed her peak level by any means.

Hmm isnt she planning on only 5 triples in the LP. Without the backing as U.S #1 anymore, with poor quality jumps that get little GOE even when landed, and with slow and catuious skating that limits her PCS to a certain barrier, she IMO would never place top 5 at Worlds today, unless it was a poorly skated event. If one wants a reference point look at the 2011 Worlds. She skated about the best she possibly could, apart from 1 fall in the LP (for Czisny a 1 mistake competition is pretty much her max), it was a really poor and weak Worlds, which 2013 and 2014 is expected to be a big improvement from, and she only placed 5th. That is when she had the backing as U.S number 1 which she clearly wont have now, even if she somehow made it to Worlds, and when the field was alot weaker, so one can only assume it would be alot lower than 5th today.

People are questioning and were chastising me for thinking Nagasu would come as high as 8th at Worlds if she skates well and what makes Czisny any better than Nagasu at this point. She isnt a better jumper, it is debateable if she any better a spinner, she isnt anymore beautiful on the ice, she is much slower, and she is even more out of favor and out of any momentum or backing than Nagasu at this moment, especialy after a strong GP comeback season by Mirai. Her only advantage would be if she has better programs but does anyone really know that at this point. You sound as if you are thinking her scoring potential would be on par with Wagner and Suzuki right now, and I would be flabergasted with amazement if that were the case.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
This. There are only 6 age-eligible skaters who can consistently get their 2A/3Ts or 3/3s ratified: Yuna, Gracie, Kaetlyn, Elizaveta, Carolina, and Akiko. Akiko, Carolina, and Yuna can match Alissa on presentation, footwork, spirals, and can come close to her in spins. Those skaters have a clear advantage over Alissa if they and Alissa skate clean programs. The others--Gracie, Kaetlyn, and Elizaveta--all have deficiencies in spins, spirals, and overall presentation (they still look immature on the ice in spite of their impressive technical content) that somewhat nullifies their technical advantage. In 2010-2011 Akiko, Carolina, and Yuna competed along with Miki Ando (who had similar technical prowess), Rachael Flatt (who could also get her 2A/3T or 3/3 ratified at the time), Mao, etc. If Alissa was good enough to place fifth at Worlds that year--and let's be honest, if the judges hadn't lowballed her in the short program and on her component scores in the long, she would have deservedly snagged the bronze medal--she can do just fine in the 2013 environment as long as she skates clean programs.

mmmmhhhh you are vastly overrating Czisny to think Kostner and Kim would merely be matching her in PCS. Without the backing as number 1 U.S lady both will blow her away in PCS even if she had a great skate (well Kim always would have, she could compete with Kostner on PCS for a brief period while U.S number 1 and before Kostner became World Champion but not now). Her skating skills and speed are light years behind theirs, her choreography is usually much simpler, she skates with nowhere near the same confidence and presence even at her best, and all her other strengths in artistry they have as well. Oh yeah one is a legend and one is reigning World Champion, and one is likely in low standing in her own country at the moment.

You can feel however you choose to about said skater but Wagner in 3 or 4 different competitions has scored higher than Czisny at her peak ever did now, and is currently the U.S number 1 so unless she imploded she would beat Czisny no matter what Czisny did, 3-3 or no 3-3. Suzuki would outscore Czisny in jumps and PCS easily, she tried 7 triples vs the 5 Czisny usually tries, does a 3-3 in the short, gets much more GOE on her jumps, skates much faster. Elizaveta if she held her form from her recent outings would always come out ahead just based on the huge disparity in TES between the two, even Czisny`s spins would not come close to making up the huge gap in jumping ability, and Elizveta`s PCS are improving vastly, while I am not sure why anyone would assume Czisny would get huge PCS at this point in time.

2011 Worlds was a poor event, Miki Ando who is nothing but jumps won with no triple-triple try in either programs, one big mistake, only 5 triples, no triple flip. Ones placement would go down with comparable performances placed today vs that year, not up.
 

Pikachuusb

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 27, 2005
I wish Alissa the very best of luck at Nationals. No matter how she does I will be cheering her on :clap:
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
There can only be three medallists and two go to world\s. I understand how she doesn\t want to go out with a 22nd place at worlds but i do wonder if she has had enoug time to recuperate and train. As well, Wagner has clearly passed her and I think she may find it hard to stay ahead of Gold, Nagasu, Gao and maybe even Zhang. She has the potential to win a medal but with the lack of competition/training I am not sure if it isreasonable or likely for her to make the team to worlds. She could fluke out though but even on a good day how she does is like the flip of a coin.
 

Icey

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 28, 2012
Maybe Czisny's goal for this year is not to make the team, but gain some confidence back with a solid performance. How is her planned content known or is it just being assumed that it will be what it has been in the past. Haven't there been medalist this season with less than 5 clean triples?
 
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Sk8Boi

Match Penalty
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I REALLY hope she skates a beautiful, emotionally satisfying program FOR HERSELF. Get a standing ovation and the response she is looking for and ....

then she can retire from eligible competition and joint SOI to eventually disappear into skating oblivion.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
:laugh: and when does THAT ever happen?

My gut tells me Czisny won't be a factor this season - I know weirder things have occurred before, but it's too much to come back from injury and have your FIRST competition be Nationals.

The point is that the bar for the sport hasn't really changed much in the last few years (since at least 2009). I do not expect Alissa to skate clean or match her previous level. But I also don't think the sport has surpassed where she was at her peak either; Alissa did beat last year's world champion last season. It does seem that more women are trying 3/3s now but we'll have to see if they can pull it off at Worlds.
 
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chuckm

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Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Czisny's better performances:

gold-medal SA 2011 FS: 3z+3t<<, 3fe<<-fo↓, 3lo, 3z<, 2s, 3lo+2t, 2a+2t+2lo

Worlds 2011 5th place FS: 3z↓, 3f+2t, 3t+2t+2lo, 3lo, 3z+2t, 2a, 3t

gold medal GPF 2010 FS: 3z+2t, 3f+2t, 3s, 3lo, 3z, 2a-fo, 3t

gold medal SC 2010 FS: 3z+2t, 3f+2t, 3f, 3lo, 3t, 2a, 3t↓

bronze medal TEB 2010 FS: 3z+2t, 3f+2t, 3t, 3lo-hd, 3f↓, 2a<fo, 1t

Only one near-clean FS in the bunch (GPF gold medal), and she finished 3rd in the FS of that event.

It's interesting to look at the layout of her FS over the 2010-2011 season. It seems she had a different jump layout for each performance, and in all she landed a 3-jump combination only once.

ETA: Yes, Alissa did beat Kostner at GPF 2010. But Kostner has rarely been in top form in the early season. Carolina did come back to win bronze at Worlds 2011, beating Alissa.
 
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AliasJohnDoe

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
Pangtongfan - Alissa has attempted 6 triples in her FP for years now. Planned 7 last year until the 3 salchow wasn't panning out.

Why is the salchow such an obstacle for her?
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Pangtongfan - Alissa has attempted 6 triples in her FP for years now. Planned 7 last year until the 3 salchow wasn't panning out.

Why is the salchow such an obstacle for her?

It might just be that the skaters don't practice some of the easier jumps because they want to master harder things like the flip and lutz. Mao also struggles with the salchow, and I think Yuna doesn't do the loop.
 

jaylee

Medalist
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
Czisny's better performances:

gold-medal SA 2011 FS: 3z+3t<<, 3fe<<-fo↓, 3lo, 3z<, 2s, 3lo+2t, 2a+2t+2lo

Worlds 2011 5th place FS: 3z↓, 3f+2t, 3t+2t+2lo, 3lo, 3z+2t, 2a, 3t

gold medal GPF 2010 FS: 3z+2t, 3f+2t, 3s, 3lo, 3z, 2a-fo, 3t

gold medal SC 2010 FS: 3z+2t, 3f+2t, 3f, 3lo, 3t, 2a, 3t↓

bronze medal TEB 2010 FS: 3z+2t, 3f+2t, 3t, 3lo-hd, 3f↓, 2a<fo, 1t

Only one near-clean FS in the bunch (GPF gold medal), and she finished 3rd in the FS of that event.

It's interesting to look at the layout of her FS over the 2010-2011 season. It seems she had a different jump layout for each performance, and in all she landed a 3-jump combination only once.

ETA: Yes, Alissa did beat Kostner at GPF 2010. But Kostner has rarely been in top form in the early season. Carolina did come back to win bronze at Worlds 2011, beating Alissa.

I must say, I'm very impressed with how you displayed her protocols. :yay: That said, she got a < on her flip at the 2010 GPF FS.

Pangtongfan - Alissa has attempted 6 triples in her FP for years now. Planned 7 last year until the 3 salchow wasn't panning out.

Why is the salchow such an obstacle for her?

Alissa is fairly tall for a skater and has pretty long legs, a lot like Mirai Nagasu, who coincidentally also has omitted the salchow for years. So maybe body type has something to do with it?
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
Kristi Yamaguchi is a tiny little thing, and she had huge problems with the 3S, so it can't just be height.

Some like edge jumps, some like toe jumps.
 

Sk8Boi

Match Penalty
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
There is always one of the jump entrances that gives skaters problems. In history, we see it all the time.

Yamaguchi: Born with club feet and did pair throw salcows. This made them hard for her as a singles skater.
Orser: Had a hard time with loop and flip.
Browning: Lutz intimidated him always.
Hamilton: never did a correct flip...always a lip.
YuNa: Had hip pain from loops, so she avoids them as a solo jump.
Sato: Had GREAT edge jumps, but faltered on toe loop, flip and lutz (always struggled with them).

Salcows require a lot of non-dominant side leg strength and also a good salcow is timimg. Rush a salcow and you will never get the height you need for a triple, or your axis will be tilted, etc. leading to step-outs, two-footed landings and falls.

I get the impression that strength and timing are issues when a skater can not master a particular entrance.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
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May 19, 2011
I'd like to see Alissa do well at nationals but I don't want her on the world team, nor do I think the federation is dumb enough to put her on the team after last year. She'll need to earn her way back in by proving she can skate well.

Right now all of the other top competitors are showing more consistency and reliability than Alissa, who comes into this year's nationals as a big question mark b/c no one knows how she'll do.

It's not worth the risk. Ashley will be on the team and that second spot will go to either Gracie, Mirai or Christina...maybe Agnes, though I think her chances are a little lower given her results this season.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
It's not worth the risk. Ashley will be on the team and that second spot will go to either Gracie, Mirai or Christina...maybe Agnes, though I think her chances are a little lower given her results this season.

I'm thinking Gracie will get the second spot. I think the USFSA sees that she has a great future and can actually compete with the top jumpers in the world. I don't think the US judges will let Mirai beat Gracie on PCS alone; although I find Mirai much better on the PCS criteria, I think they will keep Gracie close because I really do believe they want her on the team if she earns it on TES.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I'd like to see Alissa do well at nationals but I don't want her on the world team, nor do I think the federation is dumb enough to put her on the team after last year. She'll need to earn her way back in by proving she can skate well.

Right now all of the other top competitors are showing more consistency and reliability than Alissa, who comes into this year's nationals as a big question mark b/c no one knows how she'll do.

It's not worth the risk. Ashley will be on the team and that second spot will go to either Gracie, Mirai or Christina...maybe Agnes, though I think her chances are a little lower given her results this season.

I feel the same. I would like Czisny to skate well at Nationals, but I definitely dont want her on the team in a pre Olympic Worlds, and I also feel strongly the U.S judges will keep her off the team no matter what this year, even if she skated lights out and it was a messy event they would still place her 3rd or 4th. Next year could be different if she makes a good showing at Nationals this year, skates well on the fall grand prix (more important than Nationals this year as a poor showing would almost be expected after so long away), and if the U.S regains 3 spots. No spots for the Olympics on the line next year, and with 3 ladies they can afford to send a wild card if need be anyway.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
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Jun 16, 2010
I'm thinking Gracie will get the second spot. I think the USFSA sees that she has a great future and can actually compete with the top jumpers in the world. I don't think the US judges will let Mirai beat Gracie on PCS alone; although I find Mirai much better on the PCS criteria, I think they will keep Gracie close because I really do believe they want her on the team if she earns it on TES.

Mirai is no big favorite of the USFSA or U.S judges. I expect she and Gold will actually get about the same PCS at Nationals, their PCS werent even that far apart internationally this season anyway, and unless Gold skates poorly she will get the 2nd spot on higher TES no matter what Nagasu does.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
Why is the salchow such an obstacle for her?
Alissa has historically also struggled with her 2A and it was really, really a scary looking jump in the last couple years working with Julie Berlin (before Jason D reworked some of her jumping technique). 2A and 3S are similar in technique and timing (when a skater starts making progress on single Axels, coaches usually start them on double sal and double toe as well because the mechanics are similar, although the picking and weight transfer are a little differnt on the toe loop than on the sal and Axel). She's never really "stepped up" on her entry on either of those jumps (her 2A is way better than it was but it still has skimmed the ice more than actually jumping up and under which is why it has never been an impressive jump for her).
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
I'm thinking Gracie will get the second spot. I think the USFSA sees that she has a great future and can actually compete with the top jumpers in the world. I don't think the US judges will let Mirai beat Gracie on PCS alone; although I find Mirai much better on the PCS criteria, I think they will keep Gracie close because I really do believe they want her on the team if she earns it on TES.
Mirai used to be better on many of the PCS criteria, but she's really mailed in a lot of her performances since the 2010 Olympics. Also, when she makes a mistake there is a noticeable difference in her speed (she slows down significantly -- see 2011 Nationals). Gracie has very well constructed programs (CH) and while she maybe doesn't always present them in a mature manner (rushing, not finishing off some things or skating through her music), she has great speed and variety in her skating (SS) and a ton of transitions (TR). If you couple that with difficult content and a mostly clean skate (which she is LIKELY to do), PE and IN stay in the same corridor as SS, TR, and CH.
 
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