Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
My claim that Osmond would not get the same PCS at Worlds against the likes of Yuna is simply based on what ISU judges have given these respective skaters in previous recent competitions (excluding Nationals). For Yuna the most recent case is NRW Trophy, where she averaged in the upper 8's despite her mistakes in the LP, while Kaetlyn averaged a 7 at Nebelhorn Trophy in her free skate. If you insist that Canadian nationals scores is not in any way inflated relative to international competitions, that's your prerogative.
Your understanding of how things work at ISU events and championships is not correct. Marks for skaters are anything but consistent, especially when comparing scores given to X skater at the very beginning of the season vs. the end of the season (aka. World Championship). Even in Ice Dance, the discipline where marks tend to be the most consistent of all disciplines, significant movement can occur within a span of months. In Singles, that can change even quicker and the marks or ranking drastically change as well. For example, in the 1996-97 season, Michelle Kwan was the most dominant female skater as the reigning World Champion. That remained true through the Champion Series, GP Series' predecessor. Tara Lipinski was only 15th at Worlds in the previous year and during CS Series, finished as low as 3rd at Trophée Lalique (now Trophée Eric Bompard) and 2nd at Skate Canada. Suffice to say, the early season Presentation marks that Lipinski got were nothing to write home about. Michelle continued to dominate - until all of sudden, Michelle fell apart at the FS of U.S. Nationals and surprisingly lost to Lipinski. Tara went on to win the World Championship that year, becoming the youngest female ever to win such honor. It's interesting to note that by the time of Lausanne Worlds, Lipinski's Presentation marks have risen to a point that even though Michelle Kwan did not fall apart in her FS and actually won that portion of the competition, Tara's marks have shot upward so much in both SP and LP that Michelle simply couldn't catch up even after winning the FS.

History aside, when you think about it, skaters do improve and/or adjust their programs and become more comfortable as they gain mileage - why should the marks be fairly consistent between beginning and the end of the season? That makes no sense. Plus, you were taking marks from the Nebelhorn Trophy - an event in which she was virtually an unknown and compare it to Kim's marks at an a minor event where she was the only skater of note in which she made a sensational appearance after almost 2 years with her celebrity status - that kind of comparison is flawed on so many levels. Typically, skaters with celebrity status who make a comeback tend to skip most international events until their goal, let that be the Olympics or Worlds. Why? They know they are at an disadvantage vs. those skaters who are constantly competing. So by making their debut at the desired event, they were hoping that judges wouldn't have enough time to get used to their routines and overlook any flaws they may have. Although this was not what Kim was doing, her marks at her 1st event after an absence of almost 2 years where none of the other skaters present could possibly challenge her even if she fell 4 times and start making back flips will benefit significantly from the celebrity status that she has. It is not to say the judges would intentionally overmark her - simply that judges are human and they too would be excited and feel honored to be able to attend an event where Kim chose to debut after almost 2 years away.

I'm not basing this on reputation, but on the reasonable assumption that judges tend to be consistent and conservative with their PCS scores on skaters over several competitions, rarely varying them by much over course of a season. So I would be shocked if Osmond scored within 8 to 9 at Worlds even if she is clean. Skating skills, interpretation and choreography do not vary significantly in such a short period of time. It's the GOE's that vary more based on actual execution.
Like I explained above, that is simply not true. There are many factors that could potentially explain lower marks at the beginning of the season, especially for a rookie who is in her 1st season as a senior. More specifically, if that rookie skater turned some heads during the season, e.g. beating some big shots en route to winning his/her Nationals and other International events of note, the marks will be anything but consistent between the early season and the end of season. A lot of it just human nature and of course, the playing field will be a little more leveled in terms of reputation influence. Say Gracie Gold wins the U.S. Championship this weekend, expect her PCS marks to get boost as well at her next International event, let that be the 4CC or Worlds even though she only finished 8th at Skate Canada. If you were to use her Skate Canada PCS to try to box her in, you'd make a serious error.

Why wouldn't her moves before the 3Flip count as transition? They are steps; now as far as difficulty that's debatable, but how anyone would say they don't count as transitions I don't understand. The same with the move before the 3Lutz, it may not technically be a spiral, but it's still a transition; in particular it at least counts as a body-movement transition.
Let me ask you this question, at the elite senior level, what do you think are the judges' expectation re: connecting steps and moves in the field? Was she skating at a junior event or was that a senior event? Sure, there was "something" but that "something" is so beneath the expectation at this level that it is simply not sufficient. A quasi-spiral is not a spiral and therefore, is not a Move in the Field. I am sure you have listened to TV coverage where commentators would be identifying the different steps and moves going to some elements - well, that's exactly what judges do too in competition - they do so mentally. Here you have a reigning Olympic Champion who showed up and 8 of her 10 jump and spin elements were not preceded by any identifiable move in the field or connecting steps - what am I supposed to say? That it's great because it's Yu Na skating? Yet, if an X skater whom you never heard of, showed up and do the same thing, are we supposed to give her an 8.0 as well for TR? Now, I read jaylee's reply, I will get to that shortly but I want to finish here by asking you a question : Do you feel Yu Na's overall transitions, linking footwork & movements in her Nationals LP are on par with what she is capable of, say during the 2010 Olympic season?