Can Kostner hold off Russian babies? | Page 5 | Golden Skate

Can Kostner hold off Russian babies?

hanca

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 23, 2008
Carolina sure has more then enough ability to hold off any Russian girls. Even with mistakes, there's no denying that she is a far superior skater than any of them.

I would say it depends on the circumstances. I think Liza has already managed to beat her last season at GP event. Adelina beat her in SP at Europeans this year. So Carolina is definitely beatable. The result depends on how they all skate from competition to competition, but I wouldn't say universally that Carolina will always win.
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
Carolina has high PCS. I'd say Yuna, Mao, and Carolina would have a high PCS, but I think either Mao or Carolina's would be highest. If I remember correctly, Yuna never won the competition(major one) because she had a high PCS. So Carolina should be ahead of Russian girls when it comes to PCS.

in my opinion, if yuna, mao, caro do clean program, yuna kim will recieve highest pcs. However, i think it will be very little difference with other skaters.(I believe that the only skater to beat Caro's pcs is Kim)
and.. yes, she was never helped by pcs.(always tes>pcs)
and when Russian girls very well (likely in euros, adelina) i think they able to catch the chance.
i think tukt have most possibility among russian girls.
 
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plushyfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 27, 2012
Country
Hungary
too many if ... I she skates her two programs clean, as she did last year at worlds ...

Tuk won the FS in ECH in last week, but she had mistakes in SP. Caro could win. But for me Adelina is the real winner. If Carolina will jump better, her victory will be well-deserved.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
If the Russian babies skate both programs flawless, and Caro not, and she has four triple in FS, she will lose.

if Caro does only 4 triples there is no way in hell she is winning Worlds this year anyway, regardless of if the Russians (who arent even anymore than longshots for a medal this year) beat her or not, so what is the point. This whole topic is silly.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I know for sure, she decided to do a 2F in the LP before she took the ice. It was not an error! In the SP it was.

How do you know this? She did a nice 3F in her FS and could have afforded an error if she attempted another triple flip. It's just sad when one triple flip is the hardest triple performed. The 2A-3T was nice though but even with a 2A-2T she would have won. Sigh.
 

jiggs

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 25, 2004
Why would she have planned the second flip as a double in her FP at Worlds? That wouldn't make any sense. She performed 6 triples including two 3flips just before Worlds at Challenge Cup 2012: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbFWbiEGO5Q, probably to try out the new jump layout as she had been doing a different one all season long.

She is listed under the entries for Challenge Cup 2013 by the way. If she really competes there I guess this is the place for her to try out her new jump layout for worlds (if she plans to change it).
 

lavender

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
She can hold them off but that depends on her and the judges. Unfortunately in this sport you don't exactly hold your own destiny in your hands. The judges have to decide also.
 
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Cherryy

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 27, 2012
I know for sure, she decided to do a 2F in the LP before she took the ice. It was not an error! In the SP it was.

If it's true I would say that's even more embarassing... A World Champion who was planning to do a 2F? :disapp:
 

glam

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
She can hold them off but that depends on her and the judges. Unfortunately in this sport you don't exactly hold your own destiny in your hands. The judges have decide also.

Yes. The judges already showed at Euros that they like Adelina a lot.
 

FSGMT

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 10, 2012
Why would she have planned the second flip as a double in her FP at Worlds? That wouldn't make any sense. She performed 6 triples including two 3flips just before Worlds at Challenge Cup 2012: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbFWbiEGO5Q, probably to try out the new jump layout as she had been doing a different one all season long.

She is listed under the entries for Challenge Cup 2013 by the way. If she really competes there I guess this is the place for her to try out her new jump layout for worlds (if she plans to change it).
Maybe this one: 3Lz/2A/3F+3T/3F+2T/3S+2T+2Lo/3S? It would be amazing (and no-one would say that she doesn't deserve the titles she wins!) :biggrin:
 

b-man

Final Flight
Joined
Jun 25, 2010
Yes. The judges already showed at Euros that they like Adelina a lot.

I would like to hear some opinions whether Sot is back as a major contender. She struggled most of last year, had a lackluster GP season this year, didn't make the GP final, didn't win Russian nationals like she usually does, and suddenly at Europeans is within a point of Kostner. Is she back as a major contender for the podium at Worlds, Sochi?
 

SkateNater

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 27, 2013
Kostner is in control of her own destiny at Worlds. She should be able to hold off Adelina and Liza if she goes clean, even though they have superior jump layouts. She'll make up points in spinning and expected PCS. I'm guessing the WC judges will not grant as much of a PCS discrepancy between Kostner and the Russians as was at Euros.

Suzuki definitely has a chance to beat Kostner. If you add their best international SP+FS this season, Kostner has the edge by about 3 points, but that is with an arguably inflated score at Europeans. I think the bronze will actually be battled for by Suzuki, Kostner, and maybe Wagner if she gets it together.

That being said, I can picture a clean Sotnikova/Liza taking the bronze, but they will require others to falter.

Kostner needs to worry about Yu Na (right now a definite favourite) and Mao (who, like Kostner, still garners high scores even with errors).

Kostner shouldn't be able to make up point on Sotnikova in spinning, because Sotnikova is 2x the spinner than Kostner could ever hope to be. In PCS, yes, maybe, but Kostner tends to telegraph her harder jumps (Lutz and Flip, for example) while skaters like Sotnikova have transitions into those harder jumps. She has no reliable 3/3, unlike the Russians.

What Sotnikova lacks is consistency. She didn't fall at Euros, but she still popped that flip (which cost her the win) and those are the types of errors that make it easier for the judges to justify placing a veteran over a newbie at major competitions. Kostner can spin better than Tuktamysheva, but Eliza is 5x the jumper Kostner is and it will really depend on whether she can get through the short program without an error, IRT how well she is positioned going into the FS.

The PCS inflation that goes on can only be justified to a certain extent. So far the judges have been able to justify it with the errors competitors have been making in the ssame competition (Asada's win at NHK), but if the field is relatively clean and consistent it will be hard to place Kostner over the Russians, nevermind her tactic is working against her since it is forcing the judges to throw high scores out to technically inferior programs - similar to what happened in 2009-10 with the men when the quad was an endangered species.
 

SkateNater

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 27, 2013
Who should have won GPF, boo?

Hard to say, because Asada was given wins for really ridiculously bad programs this season and others beating her could have changed who even competed at GPF...

So, no one can realistically answer that question.

Plus, if Lipnitskaya had not gotten injured she probably would have taken the final, anyways.
 

SkateNater

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 27, 2013
EDIT: This is a respons to the last post by CanadianSkaterGuy



This is a nonsense. She won her GPF gold medal fair and square with a totally superior and fantastic performance. She didn't land 7 triples, right, but who really did? Don't tell me that Michelle Kwan did, because firstly you need to apply the same logic to her performances that you apply when it comes to Mao. Don't take into account Michelle's both flutzes and underrotated jumps and you are left with 3 CLAEN triples in her glorious SOTBS from 2001 Worlds. Mao's skate from GPF was absolutely sensational performance-wise and I have already provided you with numerous reasons for her high PCS scores.

Well, there are many who thought Slutskaya should have won that worlds (and the Olympics, definitely given Sarah Hughe's inability to rotate even half of her jumps fully), so many could care less how well Michelle Kwan "appeared" to skate at 2001 Worlds.

Part of the reason why Michelle Kwan won was the same reasons people are using to justify Asada and Kostner's wins.

I think people are losing sight of the fact that figure skating actually IS a sport. And for that, I've had a change of heart in the past weeks/months of reading this stuff.

I hope the IJS starts rewarding jumps more, adding bonuses to 3/3 combinations, etc. It will combat the PCS inflation of veteran skaters (and National champions of influential nations) and reward those who are pushing the envelop in a more sports[wo]manlike way.
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
i dont think Asada's this season programs was bad, enjoy to see
But, she continue to win by strong in pcs and low tes score
so I wonder in worlds, she meet with Kostner and yuna, what will happen...
 
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pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Kim will beat Asada in PCS and Kostner will atleast match her, so if Mao comes out doing only 3 or 4 clean triples she will get her butt kicked. She is not going to be able to rely on some big PCS edge to overcome technical inferiority vs those two like she does vs say Suzuki, not a chance. Even the Russians with their recent improvement, and Wagner if she works her butt off after an embarassing last 2 free skates, will beat her if she continues with what she has done this season so far.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Well, there are many who thought Slutskaya should have won that worlds (and the Olympics, definitely given Sarah Hughe's inability to rotate even half of her jumps fully), so many could care less how well Michelle Kwan "appeared" to skate at 2001 Worlds.

Part of the reason why Michelle Kwan won was the same reasons people are using to justify Asada and Kostner's wins.

I hope the IJS starts rewarding jumps more, adding bonuses to 3/3 combinations, etc. It will combat the PCS inflation of veteran skaters (and National champions of influential nations) and reward those who are pushing the envelop in a more sports[wo]manlike way.

I'm not sure what you meant? Kwan landed 3L/3T-3T(slightly UR)/3Z-2T/3S/3F/2A/3Z... in one of her best programs. Slutskaya had excellent technical content but lost 7-2 to Michelle because she two-footed her under-rotated 3Z-3L, and under-rotated her 3S-3L, but still a very ambitious program. With Asada/Kostner the opposite is happening... a skater with more triples will end up losing or placing only 1 or 2 points ahead in the FS in spite of Asada/Kostner making errors, thanks to PCS disadvantage. At least when Kwan has done poorly (for her) and lands only 4 or 5 triples, she would actually lose to skaters who complete 6 or 7.
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Kim will beat Asada in PCS and Kostner will atleast match her, so if Mao comes out doing only 3 or 4 clean triples she will get her butt kicked. She is not going to be able to rely on some big PCS edge to overcome technical inferiority vs those two like she does vs say Suzuki, not a chance.

For the last two seasons, Kostner's PCS have been 5-6 points higher than Mao's in the LP alone.
For the current season best, Kostner's PCS is 4 points higher than Mao's in the LP alone.

I say if Kostner is anywhere near clean, she will have at least a triple jump advantage over Mao's.
Kim and Kostner's PCS will have much smaller gap than these two and Mao's.

I predicted Mao would have to out jump these two to place above them.
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Hard to say, because Asada was given wins for really ridiculously bad programs this season and others beating her could have changed who even competed at GPF...

So, no one can realistically answer that question.

Plus, if Lipnitskaya had not gotten injured she probably would have taken the final, anyways.

Huh? What? Que?
Based on the GP series, Mao, even with a lost to Suzuki in NHK and a lost to Lipnikskaya, would have made the final. The skaters wouldn't have changed.
Based on the skating in the GPF, Mao would have won in any system. Lipnikskaya would have been destroyed there and probably wouldn't even make Russian National.
 
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