Can Kostner hold off Russian babies? | Golden Skate

Can Kostner hold off Russian babies?

skateluvr

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Joined
Oct 23, 2011
Who should Carolina truly be worried about as she tried to defend at the WC? Adelina and Liza were great at Euros. Does Suzuki have a chance or just Mao to dethrone the stunning Kostner? What do you think?
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

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Jan 25, 2013
Kostner is in control of her own destiny at Worlds. She should be able to hold off Adelina and Liza if she goes clean, even though they have superior jump layouts. She'll make up points in spinning and expected PCS. I'm guessing the WC judges will not grant as much of a PCS discrepancy between Kostner and the Russians as was at Euros.

Suzuki definitely has a chance to beat Kostner. If you add their best international SP+FS this season, Kostner has the edge by about 3 points, but that is with an arguably inflated score at Europeans. I think the bronze will actually be battled for by Suzuki, Kostner, and maybe Wagner if she gets it together.

That being said, I can picture a clean Sotnikova/Liza taking the bronze, but they will require others to falter.

Kostner needs to worry about Yu Na (right now a definite favourite) and Mao (who, like Kostner, still garners high scores even with errors).
 

drivingmissdaisy

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Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I 100% agree with your analysis CSG. I'm tempted to add Kaetlyn to the list of bronze contenders but she has had so little international experience that I don't think she's ready to put it all together on this big of a stage.
 

FlattFan

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Jan 4, 2010
Kostner and Kim (and to a lesser extent, Asada) are in control of their own destiny. They don't need others to make mistake to win/medal.

And for the Russian girls, Akiko, Wagner, and Korpi, Jesus take the wheel for them.
 

gmyers

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Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Yes of course they all can beat the young Russians. If kostner added two more triple salchows than not only would she have beaten Liza but also sotnikova. Sotnikova and tuktamisheva don't have the jumps or don't have the pcs. They have triple triples and flip and lutz but need more if they don't get 70 pcs too.
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
It is amazing how when Asada is discussed some consider her inferior to Yuna and now even Kostner. :confused: Asada is not given high scores for free. Her PCS is stunning, her skating skills deserve those scores. The judges dont give her anything.
 
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Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
Who should Carolina truly be worried about as she tried to defend at the WC? Adelina and Liza were great at Euros. Does Suzuki have a chance or just Mao to dethrone the stunning Kostner? What do you think?

She should be worried most about herself. Defending a world title is an incredible test of nerves, especially nowadays. In the post-figures era only Kristi Yamaguchi and Michelle Kwan were able to do it. Add to that a far more competitive field compared to last year when she won, with many contenders hungry to grab the premier spotlight of the Worlds-before Olympics podium. Can she keep it together under this pressure? It would be quite a reversal from years past.
 

FlattFan

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Jan 4, 2010
It is amazing how when Asada is discussed some consider her inferior to Yuna and now even Kostner. :confused: Asada is not given high scores for free. Her PCS is stunning, her skating skills deserve those scores. The judges dont give her anything.

She was equal footing with the other girls when she had her 3As. She doesn't really have good technique on her flip. Her flutz was well known. She just got her Salchow back. Her best jump was her loop, and I think it's about the same level as Kostner's loop.

Tell me which one you don't agree with
Lutz, Kim > Kostner > Asada
Flip, Kostner >= Kim > Asada
Loop, Kostner = Asada > Kim
Salchow, Kostner > Kim > Asada
Toe, Kim >= Kostner > Asada
Spins, Asada >= Kostner > Kim
Steps, Kostner >= Asada > Kim
Skating Skill
Kostner > Kim > Asada

The rest of the components depend on the programs. Sometime Asada have better programs, sometime Kim have better programs, sometime Kostner have better programs.

But from the TES standpoint, she's weaker than the other two girls. I think it's a fair assessment that she's now inferior to both. Unless she regains her 3As, and improve on her flip or loop, she won't beat them in TES.
 
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CanadianSkaterGuy

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Jan 25, 2013
I 100% agree with your analysis CSG. I'm tempted to add Kaetlyn to the list of bronze contenders but she has had so little international experience that I don't think she's ready to put it all together on this big of a stage.

I don't think Osmond will get the PCS necessary to make the podium, even with clean skates. It's a really tall order considering several other skaters will be allowed to make errors and could still potentially come out ahead of you. I can picture her defeating a top skater or two in the SP, but being held back by PCS in the FS. Only skating clean can give her a shot at a medal, a single major error in her FS like at Canadians will immediately put her off the podium. She could pull a Takahashi/Tran and be the cleanest of the bunch and earn a bronze though. A dark horse if there ever was one.


It is amazing how when Asada is discussed some consider her inferior to Yuna and now even Kostner. :confused: Asada is not given high scores for free. Her PCS is stunning, her skating skills deserve those scores. The judges dont give her anything.

Asada is given high scores for her free skate. Look at NHK trophy. Or even last year at Worlds when she landed 2 triples and was given the 2nd highest PCS. While I think she has improved over the years, I honestly think the main reason Mao is getting as high PCS scores as she's getting is because she's been around for a while. She certainly isn't earning them this season, IMO.
 

wallylutz

Medalist
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Mar 23, 2010
I 100% agree with your analysis CSG. I'm tempted to add Kaetlyn to the list of bronze contenders but she has had so little international experience that I don't think she's ready to put it all together on this big of a stage.

We will know more after the 4CC, so much will be clearer very shortly, be patient.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

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Joined
Jan 25, 2013
She was equal footing with the other girls when she had her 3As. She doesn't really have good technique on her flip. Her flutz was well known. She just got her Salchow back. Her best jump was her loop, and I think it's about the same level as Kostner's loop.

Tell me which one you don't agree with
Lutz, Kim > Kostner > Asada
Flip, Kostner > Kim > Asada
Loop, Kostner = Asada > Kim
Salchow, Kostner > Kim > Asada
Toe, Kim >= Kostner > Asada

Skating Skill
Kostner > Kim > Asada

The rest of the components depend on the programs. Sometime Asada have better programs, sometime Kim have better programs, sometime Kostner have better programs.

But from the TES standpoint, she's weaker than the other two girls. I think it's a fair assessment that she's now inferior to both. Unless she regains her 3As, and improve on her flip or loop, she won't beat them in TES.

3Z, Kim > Kostner (just got it back) >> Asada (still flutzes and doubles occasionally)
3F, Kim > Kostner > Asada (while Kostner and Kim have better technique and speed on their flip, Asada is consistently given good GOE for it, though... I give edge to Kim because she's able to tack on a 3T to hers, which is an advantage)
3L, Kostner >> Asada (Kostner has nicer transitions and better height and speed, Asada's is consistent, Kim doesn't attempt it so she really shouldn't be compared)
3S, Kostner = Kim >> Asada (Kostner has a nice salchow, but so does Kim, both do two of them, Asada's 3S is her worst)
XX-3T, Kim >>> Kostner > Asada (Kim is the only one who can reliably do her 3T in combos without UR... Kostner has a good 3T but sometimes makes errors, Asada often UR's it in combination with 2A)
2A, Asada > Kim > Kostner

Choreography/Performance
Kim > Kostner > Asada

Spins
Kostner > Kim > Asada

Consistency
Kim > Asada > Kostner

At this point I think Kim is obviously the one to beat and Kostner and Asada will duel it out for silver/bronze. Even though I think Kostner has better jumps than Asada, Asada is slightly more consistent and still gets similar GOE as Kostner. A huge advantage is in Kim's ability to tack on 3T to her flip/lutz/2A.
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
NHK trophy Mao had a bad day. But look at her performance at the GPF final, she was not given the scores she was the best that night. The claim that she is giving high PCS because she is been around time can be said about other skaters.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
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Jan 25, 2013
NHK trophy Mao had a bad day. But look at her performance at the GPF final, she was not given the scores she was the best that night. The claim that she is giving high PCS because she is been around time can be said about other skaters.

Yes, she had a bad day, I'm not denying that. But she was given great scores for her bad day, which is an example of the judges giving her great scores when she didn't earn them. Obviously not her fault, but it's still a recent example.

As for the claim being applied to other skaters, yes, I agree. And it's wrong in those cases, too.
 

chuckm

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Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Kostner finished 2nd in both SP and FS at Euros, but she did win the competition. Tuktamysheva doubled the lutz in her SP, and Sotnikova URd her 3/3 and singled the flip in her FS.

Kostner doubled two jumps in the FS but that didn't affect her marks much, as her PCS scores were huge. She doesn't have to be completely clean to beat the Russian babies, but they have to be completely clean to even have a shot at beating her.

I expect Kim and Kostner to finish 1st and 2nd in any order. If Asada has a skate like the one at the GPF, she'll take the bronze unless Wagner gets her mojo back and skates lights out.
 

macy

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2011
Spins
Kostner > Kim > Asada

there's no way. mao tops both yuna and caro in spins, they're BEAUTIFUL and fast and she has wonderful extension. kostner has relatively slow spins with not very good positions IMO (her layback and catch foot for example), and yuna also has positions that could be better (layback freeleg).

but it really comes down to who has a bad day and who doesn't. all three of them have to seriously bring it because they all are capable of achieving high scores, but if all of them were to skate clean, i think yuna would still win because she is the favorite and IMO her jumps are the best and have the most depth, but second would be really close. mao and carolina both have wonderful longs this year. i can't even decide.
 

prettykeys

Medalist
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
there's no way. mao tops both yuna and caro in spins, they're BEAUTIFUL and fast and she has wonderful extension. kostner has relatively slow spins with not very good positions IMO (her layback and catch foot for example), and yuna also has positions that could be better (layback freeleg).
I agree with you; it was the only point in CanadianSkaterGuy's analysis that I disagreed with. :p Mao has the better spins over Carolina and YuNa. YuNa was good at getting Level 4 spins despite the room to make improvements, but right now she hasn't regained her full back flexibility yet.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
Kostner has it in the bag. The judges love her sometimes a little too much. She can beat the Russian babies but can she beat Yuna. I still think Kostner is overrated. Her skating skills are not comparable to Takahashi or Chan yet she is treated like she is the greatest thing since spandex or flesh colored tights. I think you have to worry most about Ashley Wagner rather than Osmond. As for Korpi - she is a beautiful girl but I hope she doesn't medal Somehow I find the finnish girls awfully lucky. Lepisto eeked out a bronze that I think could have gone to the no 4 lady or even Phanuef in 2010.
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
NHK trophy Mao had a bad day. But look at her performance at the GPF final, she was not given the scores she was the best that night. The claim that she is giving high PCS because she is been around time can be said about other skaters.

Bad day at NHK? It was just a little worse the cup of china. She has ured several jumps a every competition and the gpf. It is the worst season of her career for jumps. Every competition she has entered and won because she's undefeated is an argument for jumps not matterin anymore.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
[...]
2A, Asada > Kim > Kostner
[...]
Spins
Kostner > Kim > Asada


I'd reverse the spins order (Mao > Kim > Kostner) and put Kim ahead in 2A. Her 2A is superior to either Kostner or Asada. It's much bigger and more fluid than either skater's, and she can do it out of an Ina Bauer or spread eagle and consistently combine it with a 3T.
 
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