Will Asada have the 3A for Worlds? | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Will Asada have the 3A for Worlds?

Cherryy

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 27, 2012
She needs to fulfill that 1. and 2. if she wants gold medal. Mao with a squeaky-clean 2 programs should beat Yuna with a mistake. But if they both skate clean, Yuna might win.

Judges barely give any -GOEs for a flutz/lip-they just give 0 or -1. So a Mao with a flutz but no other mistakes should score very high, probably around 135~145..

If she goes clean it's definitely 140 at least, so the 3rd point is not so necessary. I wonder if just one mistake from Yuna would be enough because the advantage she will have after SP is going to be huuuuge. :think: And we all know it's not likely for Mao to skate clean. On the other hand a 3rd place finish seems pretty doable. :)
 

hurrah

Medalist
Joined
Aug 8, 2009
Mao clearly stated in several post-GPF interviews that she wants to put 3-axel in both SP and LP this season. When she was commentating for Nagoya Festival 2013, Coach Yamada said that she thought that the 3-axel might not be ready by 4CC but would be by Worlds. So I think the intention is clearly there, to put in a 3-axel in both SP and LP at Worlds this season. I guess everyone will have a better idea where her 3-axel is at after 4CC.

I'm kind of worried about Mao's 3-flip. It seems like they are really pushing on perfecting her flip, and at both Nagoya Festival and Japan Super Challenge, it seemed that she was attempting to increase her take-off speed significantly, and thus popping/under-rotating her flip. I know that these 'growning pains' are unavoidable, but they are risking her chances of winning the Worlds.

Even if Mao gets her 3-axel ready by Worlds, without her flip, I don't think she is assured gold without mistakes from other skaters. Of course, most skaters do make a mistake or two or three more often than not. But still....

Well, even if Mao doesn't win gold, the likelihood of her being on the podium is quite high, I feel.
 
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chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Looking back at Mao's entire career, from 2003 through 2013:

She began attempting the 3a at 2004 JW.

Overall, Mao has had 46 3a attempts in her career.

Of the 46 3a: rotated and landed 19 (41%); popped 12 (26%); UR 11 (24%); Downgrades 4 (9%)

In the period beginning March 2004 and ending at the 2010 Olympics (Feb 2010) she attempted 30 3a.
Note: URs (<) were shown on protocols beginning in the 2007-2008 season)
Of the 30 3a: rotated and landed 17 (56%); popped 7 (23%); UR 6 (20%)

As noted in my previous post, from the post-Olympic period from Worlds 2010 through the 2012 GP, Mao attempted the 3a 16 times
Of the 16 3a: rotated and landed 2 (12%); popped 5 (31%); UR 5 (31%); Downgrades 4 (25%)

Mao was successfully landing the in the period leading up to and including the 2010 Olympics. After that, she was much less successful.
 

ayayukiituka

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
She tried 3A in Nagoya and downgraded it heavily, two-footed. Exactly the same thing happened in front of my nose at SOI in Tokyo in SP- downgraded and two-footed. But it's not even the main concern. After that failed 3A all her jump passes went wrong. I wrote the details on Show thread. What I am saying is her badly executed 3A can put her off and she will make other mistakes. Considerig that her jumps are not her super best point, for now, maybe she shouldn't try 3A if it's so unsecure. Another thing if she becomes more consistent, but I haven't heard of that, recently.

Haha so funny. You mentioned the one at Nagoya Festival ( ice show) and the rink is so close to the audience. You can't actually see how good she's doing in her run-throughs. Plus,I don't think her performance level goes down when she fails 3A. Even at NHK trophy,her non-jump elements got level 4s.
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
wow,seems very good. I think she got it.

If she would get 3a, (even if that is not fully rotation)
She will be strongest in ladies, even though the another jumps are all downgrade
i think she get good benefits of the changed rule
I don't agree with the rule of the 70% reward of jumps that are not fully rotated .if they can't rotate the jumps, don't get credit. If they want to make a change, then make a change in the value of the jumps.
They already tried this though and it has already improved a lot, but this 70% rule I don't like at all.
If they cannot do clean jumps, then don't even try them.
this season, her jumps were almost the not fully rotation

If you do not agree, then refute, or can ignore
 
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FSGMT

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 10, 2012
Thanks for the link :). It looks pretty nice but can some experts tell us whether it was fully rotated?
The first one was, surely! I can't judge the second one, because I can't clearly see her foot because of the white writing, the third one was UR, I think.
 

vera01

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 6, 2013
I saw one of her 3As(for 4CC practice) and all I know is that it would get either < or even << mark. I don't think she should jump 3A if she can't get it fully rotated and consistent at practice. It's still nice that she's going for difficult jumps, but still...

wow,seems very good. I think she got it.

If she would get 3a, (even if that is not fully rotation)
She will be strongest in ladies, even though the another jumps are all downgrade
i think she get good benefits of the changed rule
I don't agree with the rule of the 70% reward of jumps that are not fully rotated .if they can't rotate the jumps, don't get credit. If they want to make a change, then make a change in the value of the jumps.
They already tried this though and it has already improved a lot, but this 70% rule I don't like at all.
If they cannot do clean jumps, then don't even try them.
this season, her jumps were almost the not fully rotation

If you do not agree, then refute, or can ignore

I agree:) 70% rule IMO is unfair to skaters who actually have fully rotated jumps.
 

skatel80

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
Wow the first one looked clean, might get < but either way Go Mao!
And BTW the 70% rotation rule is one of the best passed by the isu in recent years, It has had a great effect for skaters, before people were afraid to to attempt a difficult element as if they were even slightly over a quarter turn short it was downgraded and there was too much of a risk whether it was a senior man trying his first quad or an intermediate lady trying her first double axel in competition, now a good attempt at least gets more credit than a jump with one less rotation, a sport in which people are afraid to try more difficult elements will never advance...just look at the amount of quads we are now seeing from men and the 3/3s from ladies, there is a big improvement from 2010 (last season without 70%)
sorry for rambling...bck on topic I think mao should go for it in 4cc and shut her critics up:rock:
 

FSGMT

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 10, 2012
Wow the first one looked clean, might get < but either way Go Mao!
And BTW the 70% rotation rule is one of the best passed by the isu in recent years, It has had a great effect for skaters, before people were afraid to to attempt a difficult element as if they were even slightly over a quarter turn short it was downgraded and there was too much of a risk whether it was a senior man trying his first quad or an intermediate lady trying her first double axel in competition, now a good attempt at least gets more credit than a jump with one less rotation, a sport in which people are afraid to try more difficult elements will never advance...just look at the amount of quads we are now seeing from men and the 3/3s from ladies, there is a big improvement from 2010 (last season without 70%)
sorry for rambling...bck on topic I think mao should go for it in 4cc and shut her critics up:rock:
:agree: And, increasing the BV of the 2Lo encourages the skaters to try combos with it, since they are remarkably more difficult than the 2T combos, and we're seeing more 3x+2T+2Lo instead of 3x+2T+2T...
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
:agree: And, increasing the BV of the 2Lo encourages the skaters to try combos with it, since they are remarkably more difficult than the 2T combos, and we're seeing more 3x+2T+2Lo instead of 3x+2T+2T...

well, after rule changed, 3lz has been reduced a lot in skater's program. (in gpf, even there were not 3lz in women's short program)
All the skaters so many jump 3lo and 2lo.
3lo became even similar points with 3f and 2lo points same with 2f
flip and loop, a similar difficulty jumping is that?
sorry, I do not know that. :eek:hwell:
 

FSGMT

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 10, 2012
well, after rule changed, 3lz has been reduced a lot in skater's program. (in gpf, even there were not 3lz in women's short program)
All the skaters so many jump 3lo and 2lo. 3lo became even similar points with 3f
and 2lo points same with 2f
flip and loop, a similar difficulty jumping is that?
sorry, I do not know that. :eek:hwell:
It depends, obviously: for Yu-Na, a loop is more difficult than a flip; for Mao, a loop is far easier than a flip!
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
It depends, obviously: for Yu-Na, a loop is more difficult than a flip; for Mao, a loop is far easier than a flip!

a joke?
It does not about Mao and Yuna,
In point of fact, Basis points should be depending on the difficulty of the jump,
and 3f is much more difficult jump than 3lo!

and tomas verner said
"I love the change about the last step sequence in the free skate. You can do whatever you want. You still need to do steps to showcase your edges and show that you have the ability to do rockers, counters, twizzles etc. and then the judges have a chance to give you GOE credit. I like this very much.

I don't agree with the rule of the 70% reward of jumps that are not fully rotated . You don't rotate the jumps, you don't get credit. It's done, that's it. If you want to make a change, then make a change in the value of the jumps. They already tried this though and it has already improved a lot, but this 70% rule I don't like at all.
If you cannot do clean jumps, then don't even try them.Then there is the change that you have to do only one footwork sequence in the short. I love this change."

I completely agree with him.
 
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venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
:agree: And, increasing the BV of the 2Lo encourages the skaters to try combos with it, since they are remarkably more difficult than the 2T combos, and we're seeing more 3x+2T+2Lo instead of 3x+2T+2T...

And, before the rule change, 2toe and 2loop difference was 0.2 points, and it was appropriate
and now, 0.5 point difference and even 2lo the same score with 2f.
I will say again, lo and f is not a similar level of jump.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I will say again, lo and f is not a similar level of jump.

What is this assessment based on? I would probably agree with you based on what I know as a fan, but the people who determine the difficulty of these elements know far more than I do.
 

jjane45

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 23, 2009
Loop combos... sigh, those just really have a hard time to be called rotated.

But 4CC is a really good occasion to test the water. I hope Mao hits the 3A and 3-3 well!!
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
What is this assessment based on? I would probably agree with you based on what I know as a fan, but the people who determine the difficulty of these elements know far more than I do.

it means that you admit to all of the judgment in figure skating. because they are experts

jump's value point is continue to change.
2002 ~ 2004 ~ 2008 ~ 2010 ~
3A 7.5 → 7.5 → 8.2 → 8.5 (<6.0)  
3Lz 6.1 → 6.0 → 6.0 → 6.0 (<4.2)  
3S 4.8 → 4.5 → 4.5 → 4.2 (<2.9)  
3Lo 5.3 → 5.0 → 5.0 → 5.1 (<3.6)  
3F 5.6 → 5.5 → 5.5 → 5.3 (<3.7)  
3T 4.5 → 4.0 → 4.0 → 4.1 (<2.9)



example, ~09'10 value point of 3a2t was lower than 3lz3t
and after olympics, japanese federation had protested, and it has changed.
i think you hope follow the rule that experts made,
in 09/10, if i claim "'3a2t' is easier jump than '3lz3t' because of the rule that made by experts know far more than i do:yay:" you can admit it?

and i doubt, you really think it is similar difficulty, loop and flip?
I'm confused. :no:
 
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Cherryy

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 27, 2012
Here's a link that was posted in the 4cc practice reports thread by hurrah.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-uaZrhXFkM
At 0:28 you can see the same two 3axels by Mao but without this white thing at the bottom so they're more visible. After 3As the video also shows Mao's 3F-3L.
From what I can see: the first 3A WAS fully rotated, the second one might have been either rotated or URed but definitely wouldn't have been downgraded. However, her 3F-3L is not looking good. In her first combination the flip is not shown well so I don't know about this jump but the 3L is underrotated. In the second combination the 3F would probably be underrotated and the loop definitely downgraded. I thought Mao would go for the 3F-3T. Her 3T after 2A was looking huuuge at some practises and I believe at one of her competitions. Plus, 3L now will almost always get an underrotation call. And the most important - she's already doing two 3L in her free program and her solo jump in SP is 3L, so there's no sense in practising this combination. Ah, I got confused :confused:
 
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