2013 World Junior Championships Entries | Page 2 | Golden Skate

2013 World Junior Championships Entries

let`s talk

Match Penalty
Joined
Sep 10, 2009
If both Kovtun and Han Yan are out, Josh Farris and Jason Brown are logical contenders.
What logic? Hino was above Brown in GPF and showed quite stable skating at Kokutai and High School event. I actually think he can win.
 

deedee1

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 14, 2007
Sorry to hear Keiji Tanaka's injury and withdrawal..:cry: He had such a great moment at this year's Nationals with his passionate Free skate.
Hope Hino gets onto the podium, and he and Uno can make secure three spots for the next season. Best of luck to Ryuju and Shoma! :yay:

Seems like Han Yan will be going to the Senior Worlds, after such a great showing at 4CC. Sooo scaring to other senior skaters in London! ;)
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
What logic? Hino was above Brown in GPF and showed quite stable skating at Kokutai and High School event. I actually think he can win.

I agree actually. If Yan and Kovtun are out, Farris is the favorite to win, but he skated really well at Nationals and may have peaked there, so if he has an off-competition here, my money is on Hino to win. Brown should also be a factor, but Hino already beat Brown once and I do think he could beat a Farris with mistakes.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Hino beat Brown by just 0.6 points at the GPF, and only because Jason popped the axel in the FS. Previously, Brown had beaten Hino at Courchevel. Jason has a 4-point PCS edge over Hino in the SP, and an 8-point PCS edge in the FS.

Just because Josh Farris skated well at Nationals doesn't mean he peaked there. Nationals is a much tougher competition than JW, and Josh had succumbed to nerves at both of his previous Senior Nationals. That he held together this year shows he has learned to compete under pressure. I don't see that as a negative.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
All I meant was that if Farris struggles like he did at JGPF and Jason doesn't hit all his 3a attempts, then Hino COULD win with a pair of good skates. He's not a favorite, of course, or well maybe for a medal but not to win, but I could see it happening.
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 1, 2013
Country
Australia
Where'd the bloodbath go? :(

Oh well, Joshua vs Jason Round 35643698374694387, and a chance to add a new 1-2 to their already illustrious collection.

I must say, if Jason hits all of his 3As and Joshua goes clean, I will be verrrrrrrrrry interested to see how their scores compare. :popcorn: Jason's PCS is so good, it might counterbalance the difference in TES with the 4T.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Joshua should easily win this
silver-bronze
will be contended by Hino, Brown, Jin

outside shots are Shoma and Alexander

I predict :

1 Farris
2 Hino
3 Boyang
4 Brown
5 Samarin
6 Uno
|
V
15-17 Kolyada
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Why Kolyada so low?

If Joshua is clean and lands 4t he should win even if Jason is also clean. At JGPF and Nationals they were virtually tied in PCS and that's usually the case with them, one gets maybe a point more than the other, so TES should determine the victory. Josh was so close to Yan last season with no quad attempt because Yan, who did land a quad, only attempted one 3a. So one 4t and one 3a isn't much of a TES bump over two 3a with one in combination. Then there was also Yan's 2-1-1 combo. Josh's current layout has two 3a (one in combo with 3t, the second in the bonus) and the 4t so that's the difference, in Lake Placid where he skated so great and landed the quad, he still didn't quite top his FS score from JW because he doubled his second planned 3a and URed a 3lo - the 2nd 3a in the bonus makes a big difference TES wise.

Anyways, apart from Josh skating perfectly, there's no clear winner here. Does Hino have a quad and will he try it here? He's such a good jumper and has had 3a for a long time, I feel like he can probably do a quad but idk if he tried it at Japanese events yet. Edge calls could play a factor in the outcome here too.
 
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sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Why Kolyada so low?

If Joshua is clean and lands 4t he should win even if Jason is also clean. At JGPF and Nationals they were virtually tied in PCS and that's usually the case with them, one gets made a point more than the other, so TES should determine the victory. Josh was so close to Yan last season with no quad attempt because Yan, who did land a quad, only attempted one 3a. So one 4t and one 3a isn't much of a TES bump over two 3a with one in combination. Then there was also Yan's 2-1-1 combo. Josh's current layout has two 3a (one in combo with 3t, the second in the bonus) and the 4t so that's the difference, in Lake Placid where he skated so great and landed the quad, he still didn't quite top his FS score from JW because he doubled his second planned 3a and URed a 3lo - the 2nd 3a in the bonus makes a big difference TES wise.

Anyways, apart from Josh skating perfectly, there's no clear winner here. Does Hino have a quad and will he try it here? He's such a good jumper and has had 3a for a long time, I feel like he can probably do a quad but idk if he tried it at Japanese events yet. Edge calls could play a factor in the outcome here too.

Kolyada's only good performance was at junior nationals and that was with higher pcs than Samarin and Petrov which I am sure he will not get internatonally
Joshua has quads with very good pcs , Jin has a chance to win silver or bronze with his quads and ambitious jump layouts while Hino has more consistent triple axel than Jason
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 1, 2013
Country
Australia
I predict :

1 Farris
2 Hino
3 Boyang
4 Brown

.....

I'm a bit confused as to how you possibly think Jason could wind up lower than his finishing position last year, when his technical arsenal has grown and his PCS has not lost any of its shine. Granted he has been beaten by both Boyang and Ryuju this year, but on both occasions Jason was skating well below his best.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
.....

I'm a bit confused as to how you possibly think Jason could wind up lower than his finishing position last year, when his technical arsenal has grown and his PCS has not lost any of its shine. Granted he has been beaten by both Boyang and Ryuju this year, but on both occasions Jason was skating well below his best.

Hino has had a consistent 3A since Japanese Nationals, Brown doesnt
Jin has 3A and quads and if he lands everything wills core higher than Jason
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
.....

I'm a bit confused as to how you possibly think Jason could wind up lower than his finishing position last year, when his technical arsenal has grown and his PCS has not lost any of its shine. Granted he has been beaten by both Boyang and Ryuju this year, but on both occasions Jason was skating well below his best.

There are realistically 6 men in contention for the title IMO: Farris, Brown, Hino, Jin, Omori, and Kolyada. Then maybe Uno or Samarin can medal but I don't think they have the tech to win. Nyugen and Zhang could be spoilers for the podium potentially. But among the first 6 I mentioned, results will likely come down to execution. Farris and Brown should have a PCS margin over the rest, but we saw this fall, at least with Brown, this margin is not so big that other skaters like Jin and Hino cannot overtake him if they deliver more technical content, and even for Farris, his FS at JGPF only scored 5 more points than Hino so he is not invincible either. Execution of content is likely to be most important, and Jin does have a pretty consistent 4t and 3a while Hino's 3a has been solid for seasons now while it is a new jump for Jason this season. Sure he is capable of landing it and landing it well, but in terms of who is more likely to land all 3 3a attempts at this competition - I think sky_fly is right in saying Hino and Jin. Of course, Brown may well be able to beat them both even if he does miss out on one/multiple attempts, it's just going to come down to other things.

AFAIK, Jin actually has the highest BV for the FS, where he plans two 4t and two 3a (one in the 2nd half), or at least that was his layout for the JGPF, idk if he or anyone else has changed his layout for the easier or harder since. If Brown skates cleanly with 3 3a, then certainly, one would expect his placement to be 1st or 2nd, but comparing results across years doesn't say much because Brown had 2 clean skates last year at JW (no 3a attempts but no mistakes either) while none of Jin, Omori, or Kolyada even competed and Hino, who has improved a lot in PCS this season, bombed the SP.
 
Joined
Jan 22, 2004
Why isn't Yan Han going to Junior Worlds if he's not going to Senior Worlds?

I just don't understand that the Chinese Fed is doing at all...
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Didn't Yan dislocate his shoulder when he fell at 4CC? Perhaps he is not entirely healed yet, and Chinese Fed is waiting to make the decision regarding Worlds until he is, but in the meantime, no sense in having him compete now if he's still hurting. Also where Yan is a substitute for Worlds I think the Fed can still send him instead of Song if they want up until pretty much the day the skaters fly to London so basically, Song for Worlds is not a done deal.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
No, Yan Han is not injured.

Then I am also confused why he is not competing here. With Kovtun not competing, Yan would have been the heavy favorite for gold and a place on the podium he could probably manage in his sleep even. So idk. Perhaps the Fed does not think going to JW is a good use of Yan's time...
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 1, 2013
Country
Australia
Then I am also confused why he is not competing here. With Kovtun not competing, Yan would have been the heavy favorite for gold and a place on the podium he could probably manage in his sleep even. So idk. Perhaps the Fed does not think going to JW is a good use of Yan's time...

I doubt he would have been "heavy favourite". He probably would have been equal favourite with Farris. Remember, he only beat Farris by half a point last year, and that was when Yan had a quad and Farris didn't.

Anyway, apparently the issue is that the Chinese fed still haven't decided who's going to Senior Worlds.
 

hippomoomin

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Ya, I think the most likely reason would be Han Yan has a great chance of being sent to the senior worlds, that junior worlds is considered a distraction for him.
However, if he were at the junior worlds, he will be favored due to his performance at recent 4cc, while Farris hasn't made an international senior debut yet.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Ya, I think the most likely reason would be Han Yan has a great chance of being sent to the senior worlds, that junior worlds is considered a distraction for him.
However, if he were at the junior worlds, he will be favored due to his performance at recent 4cc, while Farris hasn't made an international senior debut yet.

Exactly. I didn't mean that Yan is clearly better than Farris, just that he'd have momentum coming off of his bronze at 4CC, where he placed ahead of all the American competitors, two of whom placed ahead of Farris at US Nationals. If they were both to skate clean landing all there planned content, it would likely be a toss up over who would win. Add Kovtun in there and it would be even less clear cut. I wonder if those three will continue to be rivals so to speak in the future, they are all close in age and very evenly matched for the time being, which is nice to see because they've really helped bring the junior competitions to a new level, clearly, seeing how well they've all done the few occasions they have skated as seniors.
 
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