US ladies facing worlds

I think there is too much expectation on Gracie. I love her, but there are things come with time and experience. Usually most of skaters on their first senior year don't do well. And she is handling the situation very well. Of course it is good to have 3 spots, but to win the Olympic podium we need a strong card. Just sending 3 equal ability skaters doesn't help much. Good thing that Sochi in not in US.

It doesn't help with medals, but some skaters' dreams involve just going to the Olympics first, and medalling as a secondary dream. I'd like to see at least one more of kids I have watched since they were juniors have at least part of their dreams come true.

Jammers said:

Neither Ashley or Gracie have any injuries unlike Rachel and Alissa. They just both need to skate the way they can and forget about that 3rd spot or even making the podium.

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Rachael didn't have a fracture in her leg until a week before Worlds two year ago. Their condition at this moment is not necessarily relevant as anything can happen between now and then. I just hope that we are past that curse and that USFSA does better to make sure that no one is competing with a serious injury.

Even with a leg fracture, Rachael placed 12th at Worlds 2011, higher than Ashley Wagner placed in 2008 (18th), and nowhere near as low as Czisny in 2012 (22nd).

I would hope there isn't any added pressure for the ladies thinking about the 3rd spot. I think that because they both hope to finish 6th or better anyway that would be the only pressure they feel (i.e. meeting their own personal expectations). It would surprise me if they were able to get 3 spots back with the depth this year but anything is possible.

They need 6th and 7th, 5th and 8th,4th and 9th.......all are possible but not particularly likely IMO.

Kim/Asada/Suzuki/Kostner/Sot/Tuk (should be top 6) with Wagner cracking if one of Suzuki/Sot or Tuk screws up the short particularly. I predict 5th for Wagner at best

Osmond/Murakami/Li/Korpii/Leonova/Marchei/Gold the next 7, Gold would have to skate lights out to get top 8, but if she did she could easily pick off 5 of those girls.

Thus 5th and 8th is a possibility IMO, 5th and 12th the most likely, however.

There was a period when Finland only had one spot, 2001 - 2005, despite having 3 skaters with almost identical talent.

They had Elina Kettunen 11th @ worlds in 01, 11th at the Olympics 2002 and 5th at Europeans
They had Susanna Poykio sent to worlds in 02 instead of Kettunen where she finished 12th, was 3rd at Junior Worlds and 6th at europeans
Alisa Drei was sent to worlds in 2003 as she finished highest at Eurpeans but again, finished 12th
Poykio went in 04....but....finished 12th

The point is, Finland had 3 girls at the same time capable of finishing top 10 at worlds, but only had 1 spot for 3 years because they kept falling slightly short.

Poykio finished 8th in 05 and opened the door, just in time for Korpii and 2 spots in Torino.

The point is, USA are very similar at present. They have half a dozen girls who like Finland in the early 00's, could potentially crack the top ten...but really, 3 spots are only reserved for countries where there are top ten chances AND medals. I don't see Wagner, their champion, cracking Kostner/Asada or Kim!?! And whats the point of sending an additional athlete who might come 12th!?

As soon as USA find a Lady who is better than one of Kostner/Asada/Kim or even Suzuki/Sotnikova/Tuktamasheva - THEN they'll get 3 spots!

Likely Kostner, Asada, Kim, Korpi and Suzuki will all be gone after Sochi. That's when opportunities will be available for US ladies to get 3 spots.