Interesting Statistics about Predictions for U.S. Nationals | Golden Skate

Interesting Statistics about Predictions for U.S. Nationals

Jennifer

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 4, 2003
I was curious about how the predictions broke down for first place, so I decided to figure it out. The numbers in brackets represent the number of people who made that prediction. There were 183 predictions in all. If you missed the results thread, they can be found here.

Men

Timothy Goebel - 68% (124)
Michael Weiss - 19% (35)
Johnny Weir - 10% (19)
Ryan Jahnke - 1% (2)
Evan Lysacek - 0.5% (1)
Parker Pennington - 0.5% (1)
Matt Savoie - 0.5% (1)

Ladies

Michelle Kwan - 79% (145)
Sasha Cohen - 21% (38)

Pairs

Scott/Dulebohn - 56% (103)
Inoue/Baldwin - 35% (64)
Don/Hunt - 5% (9)
Orscher/Lucash - 2% (3)
Vise/Kole - 0.5% (1)
Appel/Harris - 0.5% (1)
Spielberg/Joeright - 0.5% (1)
Hinzmann/Parchem - 0.5% (1)

Dance

Belbin/Agosto - 88% (161)
Lang/Tchernyshev - 12% (22)
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Thanks for the info, Jennifer, and also thanks for running the contest. I see from the link that a lot of people were within a few points of winning (congrats to Guinivere!!!!). Tim withdrawing threw a lot of people's game plan off, for sure.

Mathman
 
Joined
Aug 3, 2003
Thanks, Jennifer. Kewl results! Now see, the majority of GSers knew Michelle would win. But Johnny Weir was really the upset! Only 19 people picked him. Good for those 19 for keeping the faith in Weir!' Thanks for doing that Jennifer. Nothing like cold hard numbers to show the facts.
Rgirl
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
Hey, Jennifer. Thanks so much for that rundown of the results of predictions. It shows the consensus of predicting winners in Golden Skate is 50-59. So when posters are dying to predict, are they really thinking of what the bookies would do or are they just announcing prayers for their favorites?

Joe
 
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