GP Speculation 2013-2014. The men | Page 2 | Golden Skate

GP Speculation 2013-2014. The men

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Just to throw it out, if the new Development Trophy is calculated to the standing then Martinez (who will pretty much win) will have a chance at the top 24 wouldn't he?

I"m not sure if the event would even count since it's a Free Skating only competition. I doubt it would count for any ranking points.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
The WDT events are for Juniors and Novices. The WDT announcements for upcoming WDT events make no mention of awarding points, so it seems ISU awards ranking points for JGP and Junior Worlds only.
 

SamuraiKike

Medalist
Joined
Jan 26, 2008
It's just so interesting if Russia did not have a gp maybe only one Russian skater would get two gp events in the season they host the olympics!

Uh? Menshov and Kovtun appear in both Top 24 SB and WS plus the later has good chances of making top 12 at worlds. Then Voronov is safe among the SB and will finish around 25-26th in the WS so I think those three will get 2 events regardles of where they are from a Host fed or not.

Unless of course Russian fed screws Menshov again and "retire" him by not submitting his name like they did with Sokolova a few years ago.
 

amc987

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 12, 2012
Sorry to ask what may seem like silly questions about the Grand Prix assignments, but I don't know much about it. Are the assignments decided based on the season's best lists or the world rankings lists? What happens when skaters have taken seasons off or are returning from injury and aren't on said lists. This applies less to the men, but I was wondering how things might work if Lysacek, Weir, Ando, Kim, and Czisny come back next year and want to skate on the circuit. Are there wild card/discretionary entries for each federation that hosts an event?
 

SamuraiKike

Medalist
Joined
Jan 26, 2008
Sorry to ask what may seem like silly questions about the Grand Prix assignments, but I don't know much about it. Are the assignments decided based on the season's best lists or the world rankings lists? What happens when skaters have taken seasons off or are returning from injury and aren't on said lists. This applies less to the men, but I was wondering how things might work if Lysacek, Weir, Ando, Kim, and Czisny come back next year and want to skate on the circuit. Are there wild card/discretionary entries for each federation that hosts an event?

Grand Prix assignments are mainly based on 3 lists:

*Top 12 at Worlds (They get 2 events automatically)
*Top 24 Season Best (1 Event guaranteed)
*Top 24 World Standings(1 event guaranteed)

Usually most of the names overlap in all three of these lists so 90% of the time a skater who makes the cut gets 2 events at the first announcement of assignments.

Then there are the host picks where the host Federation can pick any skater they want regardless of previous results/rankings. Most of the time these picks are used to select their local up and coming skaters who otherwise wouldn't get an opportunity on the elite level.

As for the coming back rule, a skater who has been previously a top 6 at Worlds and has missed last or previous seasons due to injury or temporal retirement can apply for consideration for 2 events which they always get since they are usually big names. However this is a "one time only" exception. Weir and Ando have already used them (and wasted them :slink:).

If there are still spots left to fill the feds can invite any skater from the rest of the Top 75 Season Best list who is submited for consideration.


Hope that helps to solve your doubts :):)
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Czisny placed 5th at Worlds 2011, then was injured in 2012 and skated badly. She had surgery in the summer of 2012 and did opt for one 2012 GP event but withdrew because she wasn't ready. Then she was injured again. I'm not sure if she qualifies under the 'returning from injury' clause.

As already mentioned, Weir and Ando used up their one-time-only card. Lysacek blew his chance in the 2011-2012 GP, when he was scheduled for 2 events but withdrew.

There was once a rule that JGPF and JW medalists were guaranteed one event, but since the reduction in the number of singles and ice dance entries, that guarantee was phased out.

When there are withdrawals from the original invitations, there is a substitute list based on the Seasons Best list of the previous year. Substitutes are drawn from the top 5 on the list who have only one GP invitation or none as yet, but the selection is not necessarily done in list order. Some host federations will choose the skater who offers the least competition to their own skaters.
 

amc987

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 12, 2012
Grand Prix assignments are mainly based on 3 lists:

*Top 12 at Worlds (They get 2 events automatically)
*Top 24 Season Best (1 Event guaranteed)
*Top 24 World Standings(1 event guaranteed)

Usually most of the names overlap in all three of these lists so 90% of the time a skater who makes the cut gets 2 events at the first announcement of assignments.

Then there are the host picks where the host Federation can pick any skater they want regardless of previous results/rankings. Most of the time these picks are used to select their local up and coming skaters who otherwise wouldn't get an opportunity on the elite level.

As for the coming back rule, a skater who has been previously a top 6 at Worlds and has missed last or previous seasons due to injury or temporal retirement can apply for consideration for 2 events which they always get since they are usually big names. However this is a "one time only" exception. Weir and Ando have already used them (and wasted them :slink:).

If there are still spots left to fill the feds can invite any skater from the rest of the Top 75 Season Best list who is submited for consideration.


Hope that helps to solve your doubts :):)

Thanks for all that info!
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
Czisny placed 5th at Worlds 2011, then was injured in 2012 and skated badly. She had surgery in the summer of 2012 and did opt for one 2012 GP event but withdrew because she wasn't ready. Then she was injured again. I'm not sure if she qualifies under the 'returning from injury' clause.

As already mentioned, Weir and Ando used up their one-time-only card. Lysacek blew his chance in the 2011-2012 GP, when he was scheduled for 2 events but withdrew.

There was once a rule that JGPF and JW medalists were guaranteed one event, but since the reduction in the number of singles and ice dance entries, that guarantee was phased out.

When there are withdrawals from the original invitations, there is a substitute list based on the Seasons Best list of the previous year. Substitutes are drawn from the top 5 on the list who have only one GP invitation or none as yet, but the selection is not necessarily done in list order. Some host federations will choose the skater who offers the least competition to their own skaters.
To be honest i'm glad Johnny can't apply for two GP events next season. He wasn't very competitive when he did skate. Give Josh or Jason two GP events instead they deserve them and are the future of US men's skating. Why waste GP spots on skaters who might or might now even compete next season?
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Bumping this thread up so people can discuss the U.S. Men + GP selection. (and other countries as well)

Top 30 SB

1 274.87 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
2 269.40 Daisuke TAKAHASHI JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
3 267.78 Patrick CHAN CAN World Championships 2013 15.03.2013
4 266.48 Denis TEN KAZ World Championships 2013 15.03.2013
5 264.29 Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
6 253.27 Takahiko KOZUKA JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
7 250.55 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
8 250.53 Florent AMODIO FRA European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
9 243.52 Michal BREZINA CZE European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
10 238.36 Max AARON USA World Championships 2013 15.03.2013
11 238.34 Nobunari ODA JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
12 236.92 Tatsuki MACHIDA JPN ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
13 235.37 Ross MINER USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
14 235.22 Han YAN CHN ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
15 234.18 Takahito MURA JPN World Championships 2013 15.03.2013
16 234.04 Richard DORNBUSH USA ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
17 232.47 Brian JOUBERT FRA European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
18 228.46 Nan SONG CHN ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
19 228.32 Joshua FARRIS USA World Junior Championships 2013 02.03.2013
20 227.63 Jeremy ABBOTT USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
21 226.57 Maxim KOVTUN RUS European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
22 224.15 Jason BROWN USA World Junior Championships 2013 02.03.2013
23 223.72 Konstantin MENSHOV RUS ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
24 222.00 Nathan CHEN USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 15.09.2012
25 217.61 Sergei VORONOV RUS ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
26 216.84 Peter LIEBERS GER World Championships 2013 15.03.2013
27 216.60 Andrei ROGOZINE CAN World Championships 2013 15.03.2013
28 211.88 Alexander MAJOROV SWE European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
29 210.47 Adam RIPPON USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
30 209.84 Artur GACHINSKI RUS ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012


Impressive that Nathan Chen's score from JGP in Sept. still managed to stay in the top 24!
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Here's the list of GP 'guarantees' for the men, which includes Worlds 2013 results. The World Rankings list has been purged to remove 2010-2011 points and reduce 2011-2012 points to 70% of their value.

Top 12 at Worlds 2013, guaranteed two spots each (top 6 are seeded):
Patrick CHAN
Denis TEN
Javier FERNANDEZ
Yuzuru HANYU
Kevin REYNOLDS
Daisuke TAKAHASHI
Max AARON
Takahito MURA
Brian JOUBERT
Michal BREZINA
Peter LIEBERS
Florent AMODIO

Skaters who are top 24 on Worlds Ranking and/or Seasons Best list are guaranteed at least one event. The lists below do not include skaters who finished top 12 at Worlds.

Top 24 on World Ranking AND Seasons Best:
Takahiko KOZUKA
Nobunari ODA
Tatsuki MACHIDA
Ross MINER
Han YAN
Richard DORNBUSH
Nan SONG
Joshua FARRIS
Jeremy ABBOTT
Maxim KOVTUN
Jason BROWN
Konstantin MENSHOV

Top 24 on World Ranking list only:
Thomas VERNER

Top 24 on Seasons Best only:
Nathan Chen (JGP)
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Also, the following top six from Worlds is seeded:
Patrick CHAN
Denis TEN
Javier FERNANDEZ
Yuzuru HANYU
Kevin REYNOLDS
Daisuke TAKAHASHI

Those ranked 1-3 can't face each other. Neither can 4-6. Of course federations can do some deals and actually not enforced the rule as we saw last year.

As each GP has 10 spots, we have 60 spots up for grabs. With the top 12 getting two spots guaranteed, that takes up 24 of the 60 spots, leaving 36 spots left to spread.

13 skaters are guaranteed a spot based on the SB/WR list (Chen is too young), we're down to 23 spots. I think it's very likely that this group of 13 will get a second GP invite, depending on how many of the 18 host picks are given to those who wouldn't qualify otherwise.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Because HOST PICK is the first step in the process, it IS possible for 1-3 or 4-6 seeds to face each other.

Last season, Japan picked Takahashi and Hanyu, the #2 and #3 seeds, for NHK. This year, USFS could pick Gold and Wagner for Skate America, but they probably won't.

But a host pick is the only way this can happen. And if one host picks two seeds in the same bracket, then another host isn't going to get a competitor from that bracket. So if USFS did pick #5 Wagner and #6 Gold, then one of the other hosts is going to have two 1-3 seeds at its event.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Because HOST PICK is the first step in the process, it IS possible for 1-3 or 4-6 seeds to face each other.

Last season, Japan picked Takahashi and Hanyu, the #2 and #3 seeds, for NHK. This year, USFS could pick Gold and Wagner for Skate America, but they probably won't.

But a host pick is the only way this can happen. And if one host picks two seeds in the same bracket, then another host isn't going to get a competitor from that bracket. So if USFS did pick #5 Wagner and #6 Gold, then one of the other hosts is going to have two 1-3 seeds at its event.


In theory Chan and Reynolds could both be in Skate Canada since they are 1 and 5. But I hope they are smarter than that and maximize spots for their other skaters.
And it looks like JSF could do a Hanyu/Takahashi NHK again, though that would be silly.
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 1, 2013
Country
Australia
Quite devastated for Artur Gachinski. His only hope for a GP at all this season is to be chosen to do CoR; and given the federation's attitude towards him I rather fear that he will be ditched even from that in favour of having, perhaps, a Kovtun-Menshov-Voronov field.

Hoping very much for Brown and Johnson to get SkAm host picks, that way Brown might end up with two and Johnson gets his first GP! :) Also looking forward to Max Aaron's GP debut - I wonder how often that has happened, that the National champion has not yet made his debut on the Senior GP.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Jason Brown is on the top 24 lists for season's best AND world ranking (albeit it at the bottom of both), so I think he might be able to get 2 GP spots without SA, in which case USFS could then give the other host spot to someone like Mahbanoozadeh or Messing, or perhaps Rippon even as he's not on either top 24 list and therefore has no gauranteed assignments (though I would think he would probably get invited to 1 anyways), so he might need SA to get even 1 event.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
In theory Chan and Reynolds could both be in Skate Canada since they are 1 and 5. But I hope they are smarter than that and maximize spots for their other skaters.
And it looks like JSF could do a Hanyu/Takahashi NHK again, though that would be silly.

If Skate Canada was smart, they would send Chan to Skate Canada and Reynolds to NHK. Reynolds is loved in Japan for his jumping ability and of course the 4CC win boosts his stock. If he's to push for a medal at Sochi he needs to also defeat Takahashi and Hanyu again, and that's a great place to do it should either Hanyu/Takahashi show up.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Reynolds isn't going to medal at Sochi unless he improves his technique. You can't win an Olympic medal with underrotated quads and 3as. He got lucky at 4CC with a lenient tech panel, but you aren't likely to see that in Sochi.

Reynolds skated at NHK this past season, and he was defeated by Hanyu and Takahashi, as well as by Miner, Fernandez and Dornbush.
This season, if Japan chooses as host picks 4th and 6th seeded Hanyu and Takahashi, they can't pick Reynolds (only two seeds per event). Even if they host pick just one of them, they can't invite Reynolds, because he is in the same seed bracket.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
I'd love to see Alex Johnson at Skate America. He's earned a spot with his magnificent performance at Nationals and his silver International B medal. I hope he gets another shot at a "B" before SA.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Ricky I would like to see with 2 GPs this season because he has so much potential and has done fairly well throughout the season. COR was the only big letdown, he was very good at Finlandia and 4CCs. And he's trying 3 quads between his 2 programs and has a decent hit rate, so you've got to admire that.

I don't mind if Ross gets 2 GPs and won't be surprised if he does, I more just see it as, he had a chance to get 2 GPs at Worlds, all he had to do was skate decent to beat meltdown Amodio or even Peter Liebers, and he would have secured himself 2 spots, but considering he blew that chance and was only 14th, I more feel like if he doesn't get 2 GPs then it won't be a wuzrobbed situation because now the only way to get 2 spots secured for sure is to place top 12 at Worlds and he didn't, and he was fairly marked at Worlds too so it's not a question of inflation and such. 10th place would have been hard, beating Brezina, 6th place for 3 spots, beating Takahashi, was a pipe dream and likely out of his reach, but 12th place, even 11th, those scores were WELL within his reach but it just didn't happen. Ross was great at NHK and that gives him a nice SB and boosted up his World Standings, but apart from that competition and Nationals where he was pretty good but not great, he's been lukewarm to not-so-good at all his other major events this season (SLC, SC, 4CC, Worlds). 4CC was the situation of another missed opportunity, the Japanse men bombed, Kevin Reynolds of all people easily won, and Miner wound up only 9th. So if he gets 2 spots fine, but if he only gets 1 that's also fine, this season has been just okay for him. Getting only 1 spot might be better anyways to motivate him to get back on the horse, work on his technique, and show he really deserves to get 2 GPs in future seasons.

Jeremy I don't care that much about 1 event versus 2, but he will almost certainly get 2 anyways. Yes he is a headcase, but his WS and longevity will help him, and to be honest he does still score pretty well when he messes up a fair number of his jumps, and I actually think that's okay because he is the strongest US man in the artistry department by quite a long way at this points, and it's probably his last season anyways.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Ricky I would like to see with 2 GPs this season because he has so much potential and has done fairly well throughout the season. COR was the only big letdown, he was very good at Finlandia and 4CCs. And he's trying 3 quads between his 2 programs and has a decent hit rate, so you've got to admire that.

I don't mind if Ross gets 2 GPs and won't be surprised if he does, I more just see it as, he had a chance to get 2 GPs at Worlds, all he had to do was skate decent to beat meltdown Amodio or even Peter Liebers, and he would have secured himself 2 spots, but considering he blew that chance and was only 14th, I more feel like if he doesn't get 2 GPs then it won't be a wuzrobbed situation because now the only way to get 2 spots secured for sure is to place top 12 at Worlds and he didn't, and he was fairly marked at Worlds too so it's not a question of inflation and such. 10th place would have been hard, beating Brezina, 6th place for 3 spots, beating Takahashi, was a pipe dream and likely out of his reach, but 12th place, even 11th, those scores were WELL within his reach but it just didn't happen. Ross was great at NHK and that gives him a nice SB and boosted up his World Standings, but apart from that competition and Nationals where he was pretty good but not great, he's been lukewarm to not-so-good at all his other major events this season (SLC, SC, 4CC, Worlds). 4CC was the situation of another missed opportunity, the Japanse men bombed, Kevin Reynolds of all people easily won, and Miner wound up only 9th. So if he gets 2 spots fine, but if he only gets 1 that's also fine, this season has been just okay for him. Getting only 1 spot might be better anyways to motivate him to get back on the horse, work on his technique, and show he really deserves to get 2 GPs in future seasons.

Jeremy I don't care that much about 1 event versus 2, but he will almost certainly get 2 anyways. Yes he is a headcase, but his WS and longevity will help him, and to be honest he does still score pretty well when he messes up a fair number of his jumps, and I actually think that's okay because he is the strongest US man in the artistry department by quite a long way at this points, and it's probably his last season anyways.

So Ricky getting to GPs because of "potential" based two decent competitions, one that was really early in the season yet Ross has had lukewarm/bad competitions (and still manage to top Ricky in the SB list and beat him at Nationals for two straight years) and has no potential? How does that make any sense?

And Ricky does NOT Have a great hit rate on his quads considering he is trying to do three of them.

Finlanda -- hit one quad out of three attempts (popped one, fell on the other)
Cup of Russia -- hit one quad in the SP.
NHK -- hit none
Nationals -- hit one in the FS; ended up changing the other two into triples
4CC -- hit one in the SP and one in the FS.

It's OK at best and next to Max Aaron's quad hit rate, it's downright dismal.

I will grant you that Richard's hit rate is better than Ross' (Ross did one in the FS in NHK and Nationals) but still, despite that he has only beat Ross ONCE in three competitions.

Look, I'm not trying to hate on Richard, and I actually loved his Sherlock Holmes program (in fact it was one of the 2011 programs I watched multiple times), but the fact you're giving Richard a pass when he's had much more up and down results since then yet advocate to dump Miner for doing poorly at 4CC/Worlds despite having decent results at other competitions in the last three seasons really makes me :scratch:

And considering the fact that Richard got two GPs this year despite having a SB THIRTY POINTS lower than Ross (and wasn't even in the top 24 at that), I think it's perfectly reasonable for Ross to get two next season.

For the record, I'm taking the issue of the idea of Richard getting 2 GPs but not Miner, not that Richard gets 2 GPs in general. Richard was in the top 24 SB list, so I'm fine with him getting 2 GPS.
 
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