GP Speculation 2013-2014. The men | Golden Skate

GP Speculation 2013-2014. The men

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
I realize the season's not over yet, but thought it would be good to check in now that Jr. Worlds is over.

Here's the current top 24:

1 274.87 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
2 269.40 Daisuke TAKAHASHI JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
3 264.29 Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
4 262.35 Patrick CHAN CAN ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
5 253.27 Takahiko KOZUKA JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
6 250.55 Kevin REYNOLDS CAN ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
7 250.53 Florent AMODIO FRA European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
8 243.52 Michal BREZINA CZE European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
9 238.34 Nobunari ODA JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
10 236.92 Tatsuki MACHIDA JPN ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
11 235.37 Ross MINER USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
12 235.22 Han YAN CHN ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
13 234.65 Max AARON USA ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
14 234.04 Richard DORNBUSH USA ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
15 232.47 Brian JOUBERT FRA European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
16 230.68 Takahito MURA JPN ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
17 228.46 Nan SONG CHN ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
18 228.32 Joshua FARRIS USA World Junior Championships 2013 02.03.2013
19 227.63 Jeremy ABBOTT USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
20 226.57 Maxim KOVTUN RUS European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
21 224.15 Jason BROWN USA World Junior Championships 2013 02.03.2013
22 223.72 Konstantin MENSHOV RUS ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
23 222.00 Nathan CHEN USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 15.09.2012
24 217.61 Sergei VORONOV RUS ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012

As you can see, Jason Brown, is now #21 and Josh is #18. Could four skaters push Jason out of the top 24?

Here are the skaters below him that will be at Worlds (and could improve on their SB):

29 203.70 Denis TEN KAZ ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
31 201.99 Andrei ROGOZINE CAN ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
32 201.71 Misha GE UZB ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 09.02.2013
36 197.36 Tomas VERNER CZE ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 20.10.2012
38 194.77 Viktor PFEIFER AUT European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
45 187.96 Peter LIEBERS GER European Championships 2013 26.01.2013

In addition, Menshov and Voronov will both be at WTT, which I believe also counts toward SBs:

22 223.72 Konstantin MENSHOV RUS ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
24 217.61 Sergei VORONOV RUS ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012


Out of everyone on that list, I think the ones most likely to improve enough to beat Brown in the SB's list is Ten, Menshov and Voronov. And Ten has been quite inconsistent this season -- as you can see his SB is from way back form Skate Canada and he has actually done worse as the season progressed. So I think Brown's top 24 will stick, but we shall see.

Anyway, let's discuss!
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Rippon could also go to WTT and have a chance to improve his SB, but it's not given that he'd score over 224 there anyways, last season to SB was 222 so it actually might be a stretch. Jason is probably safe. Verner and Ten are capable of scoring higher than 224 at Worlds but they are both so inconsistent and have had very lousy seasons thus far so I don't see it happening. So in that case, even if Menshov, Voronov, and Rippon were to pass him (I think it's unlikely the latter 2 would at this point anyways), he'd still be fine. So GP for Josh and Jason next season! Please USFS. No more juniors for those two.
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 1, 2013
Country
Australia
I think a 224 is definitely safe for Jason at this point. I'm so pleased. Hopefully they get their one and then get invited to a second each - even if they had to face each other at Skate America.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
These rankings are utterly useless. For Javier to be ranked 1st when his highest placement ever at Worlds is 9th is :confused:

Oops I thought these were the World rankings... nevermind :)
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
These rankings are utterly useless. For Javier to be ranked 1st when his highest placement ever at Worlds is 9th is :confused:

Oops I thought these were the World rankings... nevermind :)

LOL. I'll go ahead and put the World Rankings as it also counts toward GP slots.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Okay guys, here's the World Ranking post Jr. Worlds:

1.) Patrick Chan 4448
2.) Yuzuru Hanyu 4331
3.) Daisuke Takahashi 3996
4.) Javier Fernandez 3848
5.) Michal Brezina 3610
6.) Takahiko Kozuka 2913
7.) Jeremy Abbott 2822
8.) Florent Amodio 2751
9.) Artur Gachinski 2688
10.) Tatsuki Machida 2564
11.) Brian Joubert 2483
12.) Takahito Mura 2458
13.) Noburnari Oda 2446
14.) Ross Miner 2391
15.) Denis Ten 2387
16.) Kevin Reynolds 2339
17.) Tomas Verner 2331
18.) Konstantin Menshov 2551
19.) Alexander Majorov 2214
20.) Han Yan 2191
21.) Richard Dornbush 2173
22.) Adam Rippon 2101
23.) Joshua Farris 2049
24.) Jason Brown 1960
----
25.) Nan Song 1912
26.) Chafik Besseghier 1882
27.) Max Aaron 1817
28.) Maxim Kovtum 1656
29.) Peter Liebers 1568
30.) Sergei Voronov 1521
31.) Misha Ge 1512
32.) Armin Mahbanoozadeh 1498
32.) Andrei Rogozine 1498
34.) Jorik Hendrickx 1457
35.) Keiji Tanaka 1445
36.) Ryuju Hino 1398

Among those on the bubble (next 12 ranked below the top 24): Song, Aaron, Kovtum, Libers, Ge, Rogozine and Hendrickx could move up given that they will be at Worlds.
Among the top 24: Chan, Hanyu, Takahashi, Fernandez, Brezina, Joubert, Mura, Miner, Ten, Reynolds, Verner and Majorov can also up their World Ranking. Though it's worth noting that depending on their placement at Worlds, they might not gain any World ranking points (the highest among Worlds/4CC/EC counts). For example for Kevin Reynolds to get more world ranking points, he would basically have to finish in the Top 4 at Worlds. Sure he won 4CC and anything could happen, but that placement is highly unlikely.
Chan, on the other hand, can gain up to 1,200 more points (1st place finish) since he did not compete at 4CC.

For the record, here's the the minimum ranking required at Worlds to yield any extra ranking points).

Chan: 24th
Hanyu: 5th
Takahashi: 10th
Fernandez: 4th
Brezina: 8th
Amodio: 5th
Joubert: 7th
Mura: 11th
Miner: 12th
Ten: 15th
Reynolds: 4th
Verner: 14th
Majorov: 9th
Song: 9th
Aaron: 7th
Kovtum: 8th
Liebers: 13th
Ge: 14th
Rogozine: 13th
Hendrickx: 24th
 
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SamuraiKike

Medalist
Joined
Jan 26, 2008
That is not the world ranking that will be used for the 2013-2014 GP. You have to keep in mind that after this season is over all the points from 10-11 season will be scrapped and ONLY AFTER the ranking is updated the top 24 are selected for Grand Prix assignments.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
That is not the world ranking that will be used for the 2013-2014 GP. You have to keep in mind that after this season is over all the points from 10-11 season will be scrapped and ONLY AFTER the ranking is updated the top 24 are selected for Grand Prix assignments.

Right. Someone asked for the ranks so I posted them, but you are correct. Until World's and WTT is done, this is what we got for now...It's probably worth an analysis who will go down dramatically with the drop of the 2010-2011 points. Gachinski, I believe will be one of them. He's currently in the top 10, but once his World bronze ranking points are gone he'll go down quite a bit, though he'll probably stay in the top 24.
 
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Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
One thing we can do is predict the top 12 at Worlds, as they will get two spots on the GP. That's 24 out of 60 spots (40 percent).

Thoughts?
 

Butterscotch17

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 26, 2012
One thing we can do is predict the top 12 at Worlds, as they will get two spots on the GP. That's 24 out of 60 spots (40 percent).

Thoughts?

First of all, thanks for listing everything out like this. It's really interesting. I think the top twelve at Worlds, in no particular order, will be:
1 Chan
2 Hanyu
3 Takahashi
4 Fernandez
5 Amodio
6 Brezina
7 Joubert
8 Mura
9 Miner
10 Aaron
11 Reynolds
12 Song
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Here's how the current Men's ISU Rankings would look after the old data is scrubbed and last year's data is reduced to 70% of its value.
Men shown in bold will compete at 2013 Worlds, so their points will go up. However, the RANKING list is not affected by the WTT as it is a TEAM event.

1 3670 Yuzuru HANYU
2 3221 Javier FERNANDEZ
3 3146 Daisuke TAKAHASHI
4 2893 Michal BREZINA
5 2728 Patrick CHAN
6 2106 Florent AMODIO
7 2019 Ross MINER
8 1951 Kevin REYNOLDS
9 1896 Denis TEN

10 1829 Jeremy ABBOTT
11 1815 Han YAN
12 1810 Richard DORNBUSH
13 1758 Tatsuki MACHIDA
14 1754 Joshua FARRIS
15 1696 Takahiko KOZUKA
16 1692 Brian JOUBERT
17 1681 Takahito MURA

18 1675 Konstantin MENSHOV
19 1669 Alexander MAJOROV
20 1659 Jason BROWN
21 1505 Maxim KOVTUN
22 1487 Nobunari ODA
23 1450 Nan SONG
24 1447 Tomas VERNER
25 1360 Sergei VORONOV
26 1320 Adam RIPPON
27 1275 Michael Christian MARTINEZ
28 1274 Chafik BESSEGHIER
29 1268 Misha GE
30 1232 Peter LIEBERS
31 1202 Max AARON

32 1190 Ryuju HINO
33 1109 Artur GACHINSKI
34 1044 Shoma UNO
35 1037 Martin RAPPE
36 1011 Shotaro OMORI
37 921 Keiji TANAKA
38 917 Kim LUCINE
39 845 Boyang JIN
40 814 Zoltan KELEMEN
41 800 Viktor PFEIFER

42 795 Mikhail KOLYADA
43 775 Armin MAHBANOOZADEH
44 768 Jorik HENDRICKX
45 767 Justus STRID

46 756 June Hyoung LEE
47 755 Romain PONSART
48 740 Daisuke MURAKAMI
49 732 Paolo BACCHINI
50 709 Nam NGUYEN

It looks as if Josh Farris is pretty safe for top 24, but Jason Brown is on the bubble.
 
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Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
As expected, Gachinski drops, but wow didn't expect that big of a drop --9th to 33rd! Yikes!

Jason is on the bubble, but he should be OK because even if he's just outside the top 24, he should be okay as likely half of the top 24 will already get two events due to finishing 12th or higher at Worlds.

Thanks for putting together this info, chuckm.
 

SamuraiKike

Medalist
Joined
Jan 26, 2008
At the end of the season both Adam Rippon and Artur Gachinski will be definetly OUT of both Top 24 lists so they won't be guaranteed any GP event.

So unless after filling all the guaranteed spots another Fed decides to invite them, they can only hope for a host pick. They will be high enough on the substitute lists though if they don't get a second assignment at first announcement.

Tomas Verner is also on the bubble . If Aaron gets 7th or higher at Worlds he wont get a guaranteed event and he is not from a Host federation to get host picks.
 
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Jaana

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 27, 2003
Country
Finland
I´d expect Kovtun, Song and Aaron to rise up on the list a lot. Perhaps even Verner will give us a positive surprise at Worlds?
 
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gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
It's just so interesting if Russia did not have a gp maybe only one Russian skater would get two gp events in the season they host the olympics!
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I´d expect Kovtun, Song and Aaron to rise up on the list a lot. Perhaps even Verner will give us a positive surprise at Worlds?

What would Song need to place at Worlds to get more points than he got for finishing 6th at 4CC? I thought it needed to be pretty high, so unless he skates really well, I don't think Worlds is likely to help his WS, because only one ISU championship per season counts toward WS right?
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Song earned 496 points at 4CC. To place higher than Jason Brown on the WS list, he'd have to finish 6th at Worlds (709 points).
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Song earned 496 points at 4CC. To place higher than Jason Brown on the WS list, he'd have to finish 6th at Worlds (709 points).

Totally not impossible. On a really great day Song can impress. But I feel momentum is working against him right now.
 
M

mylastduchess

Guest
Just to throw it out, if the new Development Trophy is calculated to the standing then Martinez (who will pretty much win) will have a chance at the top 24 wouldn't he?
 
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