The top four contenders in my mind are Patrick Chan, Yuzuru Hanyu, Daisuke Takahashi, and Javier Fernandez. If anyone else makes it on the podium, I would be shocked.
Javier Fernandez has the technical content, and if he skates like he did at Europeans, he could win this thing. He doesn't pull the program component scores that the other guys do, but he's not bad artistically, either. However, I'm afraid Europeans was his peak, and I don't know if he can replicate that again at this event. He would have to be technically perfect.
Daisuke has had kind of a rough season, and that continued when he finished 7th at Four Continents. We can't count him out, though, because he did win the Grand Prix Final, where he beat Chan and Hanyu and everyone else. He has been kind of inconsistent with his jumps lately, and to win he'd have to hit them all. As a Dai fan, I want him to do it and blow the roof off the place, but it seems unlikely he'll hit all his jumps and stop getting UR now when he hasn't done it all year.
Yuzuru is a beast. 18 years old and he can do everything. I think the battle for the gold will really come down to Yuzuru and Patrick. If Yuzu kills his short program, then he'll have a gigantic lead, as we know. After that, a good free skate could definitely clench the win for him. He does have his stamina issues, but late in the season hopefully all his training will let him get through his free skate strongly.
Patrick may not be having a great season, but he's still Patrick Chan. He's the two-time defending World Champion, looking to make it three. He peaks later in the season, and if Patrick is on, the judges will reward him with huge PCS. Plus, the event is in Canada, so he'll have the home crowd on his side. If Patrick does what he is capable of, then he'll win. If he doesn't, well, then Yuzuru will be ready and waiting.
So -
1. Chan
2. Hanyu
3. Takahashi
4. Fernandez
5. Reynolds - I still think he's a headcase, but he's proven he's on the up and up this season
6. Amodio - has a history of doing better at Worlds than the rest of the season
7. Brezina - hasn't had a great season, but should manage 7th if he doesn't fall apart
8. Joubert - the guy's a fighter, but he's already peaked I think
9. Aaron - hopefully the new U.S. Champion can have a better showing than 9th, but I'm not overly optimistic
10. Ross Miner - he's good, but he doesn't have amazing PCS or amazing technical content, that would allow him to be a World medal contender yet
Obviously, it comes down to "who's on" on the night. It will be an exciting night of skating. I think the winner is harder to predict this year than last year, when it was clearly 1) Chan and 2) Dai. I want to know what you think Who will win and why?
Muhahahaha (insert laughing devil emoticon) just y'all watch the top 4 are gonna falter and the others are gonna hit all their quads and there will be a surprise podium. Reynolds and Aaron have already shown that they can post big numbers with their 2 (plus) quad FS.
I think Javi is probably the favorite right now after his showing at Euros. His quads are very consistent especially those 4S and his chaplin program is "adorable?". It hides his weaknesses in his skating skills well by blending them into part of the character/choreo.
Out of the top 4, I think Hanyu will be the easiest to kick off the podium because of his FS problems. I just don't see Hanyu rotating and standing up on the 4S in a pressure filled competition like worlds. Chan and Dai still have the PCS edge over Hanyu and they do the quad that they can regularly rotate which imo gives them the edge of Hanyu.
I would love to think that Dai is gonna come back with more fire in his belly after the disaster at 4CC.
I went with Yuzuru, he's a pretty solid competitor and has been either 1st or 2nd in all his events this season, without having hit a perfect FS yet. There's the issue with the 4S, but he lands it regularly in practices/warmups, and if he messes it up he can make up for it by hitting everything else in his program (a la the GPF). His lutz might be more of a liability, it seems like he's been having wonky problems with it.
I think Patrick and Dai are second and third, and Javi is fourth. Might be totally off the mark by predicting Javi off the podium, but I feel both Patrick and Dai have something to prove at this competition, and the motivation factor might make the difference.
Alternatively, I would not be opposed to rolling a 4-sided die for these predictions Love the top guys, I'd be pretty crushed if someone outside these four made it onto the podium.
Javier, because he skates very well in Canada. And because he has those amazingly beautiful consistent quads His Charlie Chaplin is full of charisma and is well choreographed and I don't think he's gonna have a big catch up to do in terms of PCS, compared with Chan, Yuzu or Daisuke, IF he hits his jumps. The key is to hit the SP cleanly and stay in the game because his LP will be hard to beat.
I hope Daisuke will repeat his LP from nationals and run away with the title but I doubt it will happen. And I hope Chan can skate well and build some confidence back. He's gonna need it for next season. As for Yuzuru, his SP is great but his LP is not and finally the judges started to realize this.(his scores at 4 Continents reflected that). If all 4 men hit, I think it will be Chan to the gold - he has 2 amazing programs. But the pressure will be huge: to defend the title in front of his audience is not an easy task.
I think that in the unlikely (but still very much hoped by all) case if everybody will be clean and great, my winner would be Chan, 2nd Fernandez 3rd Hanyu.
Judges seem to like Hanyu more than his posture would explain that, so maybe a change in 2nd and 3rd (not for me).
I think javi will peak at Worlds. He was almost there at Europeans; he still needs help with spins and combination jumps. If he has 3 clean quads and a triple axel, then he has the gold. Keep an eye on Kevin Reynolds. I was flabbergasted at how mature his LP was at 4CC. What a breakthrough! He needs to increase his speed, otherwise he just might meke the podium. I like the Japanese men but they are inconsistent. Think about Diasuke's fiasco on home turf. I predict the two Americans in the top ten, not five with Ross the higher scored skater.