Number of Spots for 2014 Olympics/Worlds | Golden Skate

Number of Spots for 2014 Olympics/Worlds

SubRosa

I love Lussi
Final Flight
Joined
Mar 22, 2004
Country
Canada
In less than a week, we'll know which countries have qualified multiple spots for next year's Olympics. I'm probably more excited about that than seeing who wins what medals.

Some are fairly obvious (Russia 3 each for ladies, dance and pairs; Japan 3 each for men and ladies; USA 3 for dance; Canada 3 for dance). Some are more up-in-the-air.

Out of the following, who do you think the most/least likely to qualify 3 spots for their country? (Rank them if you like.)

Chan and Reynolds
Amodio and Joubert
Fernandez
Kim
Kostner and Marchei
Wagner and Gold
Duhamel/Radford and Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
Pang/Tong and 2nd-highest ranked Chinese pair

Out of the following, who do you think the most/least likely to qualify 2 spots for their country?

Kaetlyn Osmond
Nan Song
Maxim Kovtun

If there's any I missed, please add them in.
 

TontoK

Hot Tonto
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 28, 2013
Country
United-States
I think you're perhaps jumping the gun on a few of your "obvious" three spot choices.

I'm not at all convinced that the Russian ladies will secure three spots.

Time will tell.

ETA: An outside chance for US men to gain three spots. Not probable, but possible. The quad has made the men's event much more unpredictable.
 

Butterscotch17

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 26, 2012
I think the most likely to secure three spots, other than your pretty obvious ones, are Chan & Reynolds and Wagner & Gold. Yuna Kim, too, but does South Korea even have two more top skaters to fill the spots?
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I'm not at all convinced that the Russian ladies will secure three spots.

I don't think it's a sure thing either. Aside from whoever wins and gets 3 spots for their country and Japan, I do think the Russians are the next most likely to get 3 spots. I think Italy is the next most likely because Marchei is capable of placing in the top 10. If Ashley can pull off a clean SP with a 3/3 I think the US will get three spots because she is a relatively solid LP skater.

I think Kaetlyn can get two; with the championships being in Canada there will be some degree of home field scoring.
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
Some countries like Italy in Ladies probably won't even send a 3rd skater to Worlds because they don't have a quality 3rd skater. It says something about the depth in Italy that their top two skaters are both 26.
 

vera01

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 6, 2013
I think the most likely to secure three spots, other than your pretty obvious ones, are Chan & Reynolds and Wagner & Gold. Yuna Kim, too, but does South Korea even have two more top skaters to fill the spots?

There's So-Youn and Hae-jin, however, I doubt they'll finished inside top ten.

Yuna said her main goal is to bring back at least two spots-I think she can do that:)
 

waltzjump

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 8, 2007
I repost a question I asked in the pairs polls thread, because this thread is more appropriate.

World Championships will qualify 16 entries to the Olympics Games. Four other countries will get a spot at Nebelhorn Trophy.
Now, at Worlds some countries will get 3 spots, some will get 2. What happens if the sum of multiple spots is higher than 16?

Let's consider a ranking like this:

1 - S/S (GER)
2 - V/T (RUS)
3 - D/R (CAN)
4 - B/L (RUS)
5 - MT/M (CAN)
6 - P/T (CHN)
7 - S/H (CHN)
8 - C/S (USA)
9 - B/H (ITA)
10 - J/C (FRA)
11 - K/S (RUS)
12 - V/VC (GER)
13 - P/Z (CHN)
14 - S/K (USA)
15 - K/K (GBR)
16 - DM/G (ITA)

We have 3 spots for GER, RUS, CAN, CHN, 2 spots for USA, ITA, FRA.
18 total spots are assigned to countries with multiple spots for 2014 Worlds.

In such a case, only two countries will gain their olympic berth at Nebelhorn? Or some multiple Olympic entries will be cut off?
There is almost no doubt JPN and GBR will qualify at Nebelhorn; their spots could be the only two remaining.

On the other hand, no less than 14 spots will go to coutries with multiple entries.
CAN and RUS will get almost certainly 3 spots. GER and CHN could manage only 2. USA and ITA will comfortably get 2 spots each one. It's 14 so far. FRA could leave London with only a spot, and unlikely GBR will climb the ranking up to the top 10, but now K/K would have their Olympic spot alredy ensured.
JPN almost certainly, and three other countries will gain in Oberstdorf their ticket to Sochi.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
I think you're perhaps jumping the gun on a few of your "obvious" three spot choices.

I'm not at all convinced that the Russian ladies will secure three spots.

Time will tell.


I
ETA: An outside chance for US men to gain three spots. Not probable, but possible. The quad has made the men's event much more unpredictable.

ITA The Russians are not a s ure bet in ladies - very vulnerable. Yep, the US probably has almost the same chance in men's as Canada for three spots.
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
ITA The Russians are not a s ure bet in ladies - very vulnerable. Yep, the US probably has almost the same chance in men's as Canada for three spots.

I don't think so. Kevin has some leeway and only probably has to finish around 9-11th for Canada to get 3 spots for next year because Chan will most likely finish in the top 3. On the other hand neither Minor or Aaron are probably going to finish in the top 8. Even if the US had a skater who could finish in the top 4 i still don't know if Aaron could finish high enough to get that 3rd spot.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
What are you talking about? Seriously, have you been paying attention this season.?
a) Chan lost to Fernandez at SC
b) He barely beat Fernandez at the GP
c) Chan's Nationals (inflated right?) score is worse than Javier's Euros score.

If Chan falls three times and Fernandez is clean, Fernandez wins. I'd argue that Fernandez can beat a clean Chan now, but that's at least a debate.

I think France has a better shot than Canada to get three spots, but only slightly. D/R and MT/M are basically a lock for three the way they've been skating and the weak competition.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Not any more. Fernandez is the European Champion and he's gonna get the PCS boost now.

I don't think that much will help if Chan goes clean of just 1 mistake he will win even in PCS
also the Technical Controller will be Canadian
 
Joined
Jan 22, 2004
I don't think that much will help if Chan goes clean of just 1 mistake he will win even in PCS

Chan should be beating Fernandez on the PCS.

What I meant was the difference between them is not going to be so big as last season.
 

Icey

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 28, 2012
Seems to me that the countries population, as well as placements at the previous worlds, should factor in.
 
Joined
Jan 22, 2004
Seems to me that the countries population, as well as placements at the previous worlds, should factor in.

Yes. US, Russia and Japan should have a much harder time earning Olympic spots given there's so much more people (and as a result more skaters) living there. :p
 

SubRosa

I love Lussi
Final Flight
Joined
Mar 22, 2004
Country
Canada
I'm feeling less confident about Chan and Reynolds getting three spots now that Reynolds is having problems with his knee. :eek:hwell:
 
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