2013 Worlds Ladies FS | Page 2 | Golden Skate

2013 Worlds Ladies FS

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
she beat Adelina and Gracie in PCS and close to Suzuki, realistically only Mao can challenge Osmond in PCS, Osmond can score a PCS close to Carolina and Yuna !. If Osmond skates a clean FS it will score a 130+ , Mao with this panel will be a bit vulnerable in her FS

PCS after the SP:

1. Carolina KOSTNER (ITA) 33.85
2. Yuna KIM (KOR) 33.18
3. Mao ASADA (JPN) 32.40
4. Ashley WAGNER (USA) 30.92
5. Akiko SUZUKI (JPN) 30.46
6. Alena LEONOVA (RUS) 29.83
7. Kanako MURAKAMI (JPN) 29.77
8. Kaetlyn OSMOND (CAN) 29.54
9. Adelina SOTNIKOVA (RUS) 28.65
10. Gracie GOLD (USA) 28.62

My bad. Make that eighth.

The math doesn't lie. Gracie and Adelina are as close to Osmond as she is to Suzuki.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
She also skated the earliest among top 6 and with a group who scored in the 40s.

Making errors is hardly an exception for ladies these days. Besides, Wagner did not make any serious error yet she lost still. Many of the said ladies are almost always under a microscope for their rotations, which is not the case with Osmond at all. That is a huge plus already.

Yes, because of her lack of a triple-triple. If you check the protocols, she has the 4th-highest PCS and 5th-highest TES.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
not a good position for yuna. skating last is not her favorite.

I'm aware of this, but remember that out of the top contenders--including Mao and Carolina--she handled her nerves the best yesterday, and the SP is the bigger test of nerves compared to the LP. The SP is much more technical with less room for error, and so it is more nerve-wracking. But the LP is more about endurance/stamina and maintaining focus.
 

wallylutz

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
PCS after the SP:

1. Carolina KOSTNER (ITA) 33.85
2. Yuna KIM (KOR) 33.18
3. Mao ASADA (JPN) 32.40
4. Ashley WAGNER (USA) 30.92
5. Akiko SUZUKI (JPN) 30.46
6. Alena LEONOVA (RUS) 29.83
7. Kanako MURAKAMI (JPN) 29.77
8. Kaetlyn OSMOND (CAN) 29.54
9. Adelina SOTNIKOVA (RUS) 28.65
10. Gracie GOLD (USA) 28.62

My bad. Make that eighth.

The math doesn't lie. Gracie and Adelina are as close to Osmond as she is to Suzuki.

Your methodology is flawed based on a faulty assumption. PCS between SP and LP don't always stay in the same range and can show significant movement between the two segments of the competition. In the case Osmond who scored mostly 7s for PCS during her SP, it is likely her potential in LP will be mostly 8s if she also has a clean LP. Therefore, attempting to project where each skater stands PCS wise based on the PCS of SP will surely prove to confusing and maybe even disappointing for some people.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Your methodology is flawed based on a faulty assumption. PCS between SP and LP don't always stay in the same range and can show significant movement between the two segments of the competition. In the case Osmond who scored mostly 7s for PCS during her SP, it is likely her potential in LP will be mostly 8s if she also has a clean LP. Therefore, attempting to project where each skater stands PCS wise based on the PCS of SP will surely prove to confusing and maybe even disappointing for some people.

This was a response to sky_fly20, based on his/her assumption that Osmond would out-PCS Suzuki and perhaps even Kostner, Wagner, and Kim in the FS. If Osmond scores 8's in the FS, which she obviously has the ability to do, then the other ladies will be in the 8-9 range. Even if the scores themselves are higher, they should be higher across the board--unless one of them has a bad skate, of course.

Your methodology is flawed because you assume that only Osmond's PCS will increase.
 

wallylutz

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
Yes, because of her lack of a triple-triple. If you check the protocols, she has the 4th-highest PCS and 5th-highest TES.

All said and done, she is still behind Osmond. Why? The red herring is irrelevant. Osmond may technically have been 8th in PCS but the actual difference is so small that it really didn't matter. Wagner has some serious technical issues and the jumping technique of her Lutz continues to be awkward - read: hopeless. She is not going to be held up like the case during Nationals - you know, winning with 2-3 clean triples and falling twice. I hope she goes out and fight.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Osmond wont out PCS Kim and Kostner
but she can equal or pass Wagner, Murakami and Suzuki's PCS
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
All said and done, she is still behind Osmond. Why? The red herring is irrelevant. Osmond may technically have been 8th in PCS but the actual difference is so small that it really didn't matter. Wagner has some serious technical issues and the jumping technique of her Lutz continues to be awkward - read: hopeless. She is not going to be held up like the case during Nationals - you know, winning with 2-3 clean triples and falling twice. I hope she goes out and fight.

But it's not irrelevant, or even a red herring. Wagner's lack of technical difficulty has been the main thing barring her from truly competing with the top ladies this season. Why do you think it's been so crucial that she add a 3-3 or 2A-3T into her programs?

Osmond was not technically 8th in PCS--she was eighth in PCS. The math doesn't lie, but that doesn't mean that her PCS won't increase.

Wagner knows what's at stake here. So does Gold. She needs to keep her focus through the entire program.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Osmond wont out PCS Kim and Kostner
but she can equal or pass Wagner, Murakami and Suzuki's PCS

Yes, especially skating in the final flight and especially if she skates well. Her PCS were not higher in the SP because she skated soooo early, had she skated later, I'm almost certain she would have wound up second or at least 3rd (and I actually think she deserved to, but more because I think Kostner and Murakami were overmarked as opposed to Osmond being undermarked). Kaetlyn was fab in her SP and if she is similarly fab in her FS she WILL be rewarded for it and the Canadian bonus will come into play so you can bet she'll be on that podium with a high, high score - of course if she makes mistakes this may not happen, but clean Kaetlyn will outscore anyone that isn't Yuna, Carolina, or Mao with credit for all her rotations, given Canadian bonus.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Yes, especially skating in the final flight and especially if she skates well. Her PCS were not higher in the SP because she skated soooo early, had she skated later, I'm almost certain she would have wound up second or at least 3rd (and I actually think she deserved to, but more because I think Kostner and Murakami were overmarked as opposed to Osmond being undermarked). Kaetlyn was fab in her SP and if she is similarly fab in her FS she WILL be rewarded for it and the Canadian bonus will come into play so you can bet she'll be on that podium with a high, high score - of course if she makes mistakes this may not happen, but clean Kaetlyn will outscore anyone that isn't Yuna, Carolina, or Mao with credit for all her rotations, given Canadian bonus.

exactly, If Osmond skates clean she is a lock for the silver or bronze medal
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
she beat Adelina and Gracie in PCS and close to Suzuki, realistically only Mao can challenge Osmond in PCS, Osmond can score a PCS close to Carolina and Yuna !. If Osmond skates a clean FS it will score a 130+ , Mao with this panel will be a bit vulnerable in her FS

Osmond is still a rookie and fairly young. I hope you aren't try to jinx her or anyone. I am not sure what it is about world's but it brings out all these posters who rarely post and all sorts of outrageous comments that you want to believe are for academic skating discussion but some of them have overtones of something else. But i digress, If Osmond does skate clean she could eek out just over 130 yes that is true.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Osmond is still a rookie and fairly young. I hope you aren't try to jinx her or anyone. I am not sure what it is about world's but it brings out all these posters who rarely post and all sorts of outrageous comments that you want to believe are for academic skating discussion but some of them have overtones of something else. But i digress, If Osmond does skate clean she could eek out just over 130 yes that is true.

Osmond scored a 29 in PCS in SP and that was skating even in the near first Group
she will be on the last Group if she skates clean she can get a 65-70 PCS range and with clean technical mark she can score a 130+ LP or higher
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Nope, she doubled the second 3F, had only 5 triples and none of them were 3Lz. If she's clean here she'll get over 130 by some way IMO

Thank you.

Then clean Kostner will be in the high 130's, and clean Kim may even break 140. Clean Asada (unlikely, if she's sticking with her triple axels) will be around Kostner. Clean Wagner in the mid-130's, clean Murakami (if she doesn't get dinged for UR's) in the low 130's, clean Suzuki in the low to mid-130's, clean Osmond and Gold should just barely eke past 130, clean Sotnikova in the low to mid 130's.
 

happyskate6

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 13, 2013
Here is how i see the top 5 faring:
Barring a major catastrophe, I think this is pretty much a lock for Yuna. Caro will probably skate well - she seems happy with this FS. I hope she does skate well - it really is a lovely program (even though it is my least favorite piece of Ravel's). Murakami is unpredictable, so Mao may make a charge and replace her in the standings. Love Mao's FS. Practice reports say that Osmond is consistently landing her 3Lz-3T. Is this a change to her program? If so, then a clean skate could put her in medal contention - that'd be really cool to see! And as for Wagner, as much as I am rooting for her, I can't help but feel that her FS lacks that X factor that could push her from 5th to the podium.
 

CarneAsada

Medalist
Joined
Sep 17, 2011
Thank you.

Then clean Kostner will be in the high 130's, and clean Kim may even break 140. Clean Asada (unlikely, if she's sticking with her triple axels) will be around Kostner. Clean Wagner in the mid-130's, clean Murakami (if she doesn't get dinged for UR's) in the low 130's, clean Suzuki in the low to mid-130's, clean Osmond and Gold should just barely eke past 130, clean Sotnikova in the low to mid 130's.

Clean Kostner this year isn't the same as clean Kostner last year. If she's clean this year she WILL break 140. A clean Kim would barely get there. People are still in the 2010 mindset of Yu na Kim highest PCS but as we can all see, that's not happening anymore and, due to lower BV and lower GOE, she WILL get much lower numbers on TES than she did at the Olympics.

Clean Mao, sadly, will probably never happen. But given her 4CC scores she would easily break 140 if she gets her 3A, 3F-3L, and 2A-3T ratified along with landing the 3S.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
A clean Mao, Kim, or Kostner will all break 140. The PCS scores for veterans, are practically as generous as they were at the Olympics. If Carolina and Mao top 130 after flawed skates at Euros and NHK, you better believe they'll top 140 if they go clean. Their PCS is already going to be set at a mark higher than the field and with a clean performance that will be boosted even higher.

It's going to be a tall order for Osmond to medal because she's already at a disadvantage before even stepping out on the ice. I can picture the same thing that happened in pairs today (and, really, the ladies' SP) happen in the ladies FS tomorrow. I'm hoping the crowd reaction from pairs will goad the judges into a fairly marked competition for men's and ladies.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
A clean Mao, Kim, or Kostner will all break 140. The PCS scores for veterans, are practically as generous as they were at the Olympics. If Carolina and Mao top 130 after flawed skates at Euros and NHK, you better believe they'll top 140 if they go clean. Their PCS is already going to be set at a mark higher than the field and with a clean performance that will be boosted even higher.

It's going to be a tall order for Osmond to medal because she's already at a disadvantage before even stepping out on the ice. I can picture the same thing that happened in pairs today (and, really, the ladies' SP) happen in the ladies FS tomorrow. I'm hoping the crowd reaction from pairs will goad the judges into a fairly marked competition for men's and ladies.

The difference, IMO, is that at NHK and especially Euros, Mao and Carolina (respectively) were the class of the field. It almost didn't matter how anyone else skated because everyone knew going in who would win the crown. Yes, Mao's NHK FS was a disaster, which is what made her win so controversial, but I think Worlds is a different story. Here, there are at least a few skaters who can beat them, and I think the judges will reward points accordingly.

But why do you say that Kaetlyn's already at a disadvantage? The crowd cheers louder for her than for anyone else.
 

Bentley

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 5, 2012
Ashley always skates her best long program when she is down. After US Nationals we know Gracie can do the same.
 
Top