Chances of Making the Olympics Team | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Chances of Making the Olympics Team

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
Castelli/Shnapir? They will be lucky to finish in the top 4 next season. D/C will be back and of course S/K, Z/B and the new team Brubaker/Davis.
 

flutzy13

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
US

Ladies- Wagner and Gold are deservedly the core of the team, barring catastrophic injury. Gracie got a 125 in her Worlds FS with multiple little errors. A clean Gracie at the Olympics could end up on the podium if others falter. Ashley will need to up the technical ante to defend her national title should Gracie's consistency improve next year and if she wants a top 5 finish at the Olympics. Third spot is very open- USFSA seems very done with Nagasu perhaps a little unfairly. hopefully 4CC means they are also done with Agnes but I fear maybe not. Her GP appearance will be important. Would prefer Wang and Miller to be in the conversation over Hicks- they are both much more musical and graceful performances who skate with joy. Hicks clunkily shuffles from jump to jump. She could sneak in there though if she lands her jumps at Nats. Gao is probably the safest bet- consistent, decent rep internationally, decent performer. Maybe her year off from school will help her with her weaknesses. She is my pick right now. Czisny is a total wildcard- could already be done or could come back yet again at Nationals strong. Not sure what the judges will do with her.

Men- I think Aaron is a safe bet. I predict he will then finish Top 6 when he lands his quads and the more artistic skaters make mistakes. Miner- I think he is in a bad spot after Worlds. Abbott seems to be in decline and Evan is probably not really coming back. I'm going with Farris.

Pairs- I would love to not watch Caydee Denney in another Olympics but if they are back in 2012 form, they will be on the team. I think S/K may now surpass C/S who have some consistency issues and need to up their technical ante. I actually am more excited about S&K than any US pair in years- they are beuatiful to watch. Z/B have an outside shot but I don't think its little Denney's time just yet although I much prefer her to her sister. So predicting D&C & S&K although I would prefer anyone else to D&C. Anyone at all. Don't know what Brubaker will do without seeing them. I don't think she's as strong as Keauna.

Dance- D/W to get their OGM! I think C&B solidified their status as USA 2 by beating the Shibs three times this season and Igor in their corner helps. Judges seem to be over the Shibs. It will be tight between them and H/D. I enjoy H&D more but the Shibs seem so sweet. I wish we could trade the second pairs or mens spot to send them all.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
For Gracie to have a shot at Top 5 at the Olympics, she'll need a choreographer like David Wilson. No more of those arm-flapping, spins-on-one-end-of-the rink programs. He could do great things for her.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
She can't be ruled out. Worlds was a disaster for both Liza and Adelina. Who knows how both will be effected by their bombing. Alena is more used to it and can come back from disasters to win world silver. And the Sps were really close. From the sp it was difficult to see any difference between Alena Liza and Adelina! In the free skate Alena fell behind but it's not like any of them did well.

Maybe not ruled out but Alena had a meltdown at Worlds. Liza had a nightmare SP but quite a good FS - 8th in that segment and likely would have been higher had she skated later, Adelina was a little shaky overall but got through all the jumps and did quite well for herself. They BOTH outscored Leonova by over 15 points so if their performances are considered "disasters" then what does Leonova's qualify as?

Okay, maybe Leonova can not be completely disregarded, but I'd say Pogorilaya has a better chance to make the team than Leonova at this point, at least Anna was consistent this whole season and can jump 3lz-3t and 2a-3t-2t. Rankings for chances to make the team I think are:

Tuktamysheva, Sotnikova
Lipnitskaya

Pogorilaya
Gosviani

Korobeynikova

Leonova, Shelepen, anyone else...

Leonova is at the very bottom of the bucket at this point. I bet the Fed politiks for Radionova to get GP events even though she's not old enough for Sochi, and Pogorilaya, maybe even Gosviani, to get GPs, to have them get exposure in case favorites bomb so they can be sent to Sochi in a pinch, before Leonova.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Also for US men Ross I think is in the same position as Adam Rippon last season. Jeremy idk what to think so I will guess the team will be Max and then Dornbush or Farris, but most likely Dornbush. Unless Abbott is healthy and skating consistently well next season then Aaron and Abbott will probably go. I guess then there's the dubious question of a Lysacek return though...
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
US Ladies: Wagner and Gold can be booked barring some freak circumstance. Third spot will be between Gao (needs more something to get attention, ie better GOEs and SS), Nagasu (if she can rotate her jumps), Zawadski (if she doesn't bomb in the fall and stops falling on stupid things), and Hicks (needs more choreographic help that Gold even). Outside chance to Wang (if she can get her SP issues sorted).
US Men: Aaron will be in one of those two spots, without a doubt. I'd like to see him spend MORE time with Pasquale this coming season if Carmelengo is doing his choreo again. Second spot will either go to Abbott (if he gets his back issues straightened out and can train properly again), Miner (if he can fix whatever ailed him at Worlds), Farris (proved he can score big but needs more consistency on the 4T), or Brown (I think he's going to surprise everyone with the technical goods). Dornbush has been WAY too erratic since going to Worlds and unless he totally overhauls his training methods/plans, it's not going to happen for him. He seems to be suffering from "the Menshov voodoo doll" but in this case it was the Abbott voodoo doll...(sorry, couldn't resist)
US Dance: D/W, C/B, and S/S with S/S getting their levels and health sorted in this offseason.
US Pairs: S/K and D/F. Alexa and Chris really PROVED themselves - 9th in their first Worlds while skating together for less than a season. Definitely something to build on...

Japan Ladies: Asada, Murakami and Suzuki (or Ando)
Japan Men: Taka, Hanyu, and....Kozuka
Japan Pairs: Do they have a team?
Japan Dance: Reed/Reed

Russian Ladies: Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva. Lipnitskaia seems to have chinks in her armor right now and Radionova is too young
Russian Men: They better send Menshov to get rid of the curse
Pairs: Same as Worlds
Dance: Same as Worlds
 

koatcue

Medalist
Joined
Aug 31, 2011
Country
Russia
Maybe not ruled out but Alena had a meltdown at Worlds. Liza had a nightmare SP but quite a good FS - 8th in that segment and likely would have been higher had she skated later, Adelina was a little shaky overall but got through all the jumps and did quite well for herself. They BOTH outscored Leonova by over 15 points so if their performances are considered "disasters" then what does Leonova's qualify as?

Okay, maybe Leonova can not be completely disregarded, but I'd say Pogorilaya has a better chance to make the team than Leonova at this point, at least Anna was consistent this whole season and can jump 3lz-3t and 2a-3t-2t. Rankings for chances to make the team I think are:

Tuktamysheva, Sotnikova
Lipnitskaya

Pogorilaya
Gosviani

Korobeynikova

Leonova, Shelepen, anyone else...

Leonova is at the very bottom of the bucket at this point. I bet the Fed politiks for Radionova to get GP events even though she's not old enough for Sochi, and Pogorilaya, maybe even Gosviani, to get GPs, to have them get exposure in case favorites bomb so they can be sent to Sochi in a pinch, before Leonova.

thank you!this.
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
It's anyone's guess who will make the team for the US men. Aaron has the most tech since he can land quads and he doesn't seem to be a headcase. After that it could be Minor, Dornbush or Abbott. Those three seem to be the ones to watch but also Farris. His 4th place at nationals shows he can compete with the top dogs Brown might be a year or two away yet. Rippon has most likely done as well as he can since he has no quad and his jumps just don't stand out.
 

seniorita

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2008
How exactly Adelina and Liza are losing their talent, they finished top ten and honestly they fought for 3 gaining spots instead of just having to keep the 3 spots, Leonova skated like she wasnt there, and it was clear from sp that for both girls there was not room for error.

Japan has only two spots for men?
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
C&S made the grave mistake of not going for it all. Had they done the 3a and 4Sal throws, even with fall, they would command respect and put them in even greater position than D/C. Those throws say "don't count me out" Their PCS wouldn't tank so much either. Look at Max's PCS. The judges do reward higher PCS for higher TES. Instead, 2A and 3Sal when they have absolutely nothing to lose. Prior to World, I was having high hope for them. This would be their time. After World, I don't care for them anymore.
What a fatal strategy! I wouldn't trust their coach moving forward. D/C will come back as US #1, just like they've never left.
 

FTnoona

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 26, 2009
How exactly Adelina and Liza are losing their talent, they finished top ten and honestly they fought for 3 gaining spots instead of just having to keep the 3 spots, Leonova skated like she wasnt there, and it was clear from sp that for both girls there was not room for error.

Japan has only two spots for men?

I think it's not that Adelina and Liza are losing their talents, but more that the rest of the field is upping their technical game again. Now you got Gracie and Li putting out 3-3s and the veterans like Mao and Carolina are attempting them again b/c let's face it they don't have a shot at dethroning Kim otherwise.

Japan still has 3 spots. Thanks to Dai's 6th and Hanyu pulling up to finish 4th, so that makes 10 < 13.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Also for US men Ross I think is in the same position as Adam Rippon last season. Jeremy idk what to think so I will guess the team will be Max and then Dornbush or Farris, but most likely Dornbush. Unless Abbott is healthy and skating consistently well next season then Aaron and Abbott will probably go. I guess then there's the dubious question of a Lysacek return though...

I dont rate Dornbush's chances as highly as you. He has had a poor season and has really not lived up to expectations since his great 2011. I dont see his chances as any better than Abbott or Miner, even now. I have a feeling the team will either be Aaron and Abbott if Abbott skates well at Nationals, as skating well he is too good to be denied; or Aaron and one of the up and comers (but probably not Dornbush), or if Evan returns in surprisingly strong form and Abbott doesnt skate well then maybe Aaron and Lysacek. You can tell that I expect Aaron to make the team though, LOL! Aaron is the one I am almost sure will, and Rippon is the only one I am almost sure wont.
 

blue_idealist

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
How exactly Adelina and Liza are losing their talent, they finished top ten and honestly they fought for 3 gaining spots instead of just having to keep the 3 spots, Leonova skated like she wasnt there, and it was clear from sp that for both girls there was not room for error.

Japan has only two spots for men?

They have three. I made a mistake in my post only listing two at first.
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 1, 2013
Country
Australia
Honestly, even if Abbott wins the US title again, the US shouldn't send him. (I know, I know, it's in the rules.) But he's shown time and again that he can't be trusted at any comp after Nationals.

Aaron is certaily a top contender. I was mighty impressed with how unruffled he seems to be. Other skaters might have gone to pieces when they hit the boards. Not Max...

Miner is not done yet. He'll be back, but I hope he gets some help with his jumps in the off-season - they freak me out a bit.

Farris may be a bit young yet to consider for Olympic contention, but the USFSA needs to ignore that if he's skating well. Ditto with Brown. They are special skaters who could really make a splash at Sochi - if they are ready to go.

Dornbush is wavering on the edge...I wasn't all that impressed with what I saw at Nationals, but to give him credit, he knows how to fight. If he can get two decent programs this season and just build himself slowly, he may very well become a contender.

Rippon is in the same basket as Abbott, IMO. Proven unreliable time and again.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
For all the people complaining about the flack being thrown at Ross..seems like a lot of people are doing the same with Adam. Rippon was 13th to Miner's 14th at Worlds last year with a comparable score and was a creditable 4th at 4CC last year to Miner's underwhelming 9th this year. GPs he's been okay, Ross may have 2 GP medals but the events he didn't medal in over the past 2 seasons were also comparable to Rippon's showings, middle of the road decent scores, decent showings. Rippon struggled with the 3a last season but was also trying for the quad, albeit without much success last season, and the same could be said for Miner this season. Rippon landed two 3a in his FS at Nationals and Miner only one, and actually, Ross has not landed two 3a in his FS since NHK so that's 3 competitions in a row where he's botched the 3a. Seems like Rippon is getting unfair treatment because Miner's situation this season is incredibly comparable to Rippon last season (including very generous PCS scores at Nationals, which Adam did not benefit from this season), and from what I've seen, Rippon actually improved this season. So IMO they both have a shot and if one is "done" then they both are, but I doubt that either are truly really done just yet.

That being said, Dornbush has much better odds than either of them IMO. He was quite good at 4CCs and even with mistakes he put up a big score. I still think Abbott is in contention because even skating just okay, he's still probably better than anyone else (in terms of scores, because of PCS) except maybe Aaron due to Aaron's insane tech. He just has to avoid meltdowns because that's when his scores can drop lower and someone else skating well can do better.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
If people aren't expecting the second American guy to do well anyway, might as well send someone like Abbott for his last hurrah, if healthy. I only hope he gives us excellent programs like his masterpiece in 2012 rather than the dreck he gave us this season.
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 1, 2013
Country
Australia
I still think Abbott is in contention because even skating just okay, he's still probably better than anyone else (in terms of scores, because of PCS) except maybe Aaron due to Aaron's insane tech. He just has to avoid meltdowns because that's when his scores can drop lower and someone else skating well can do better.

The problem with Abbott is that the pattern is obvious. He does just enough to make a big splash at Nationals and get picked for teams, then he bombs out. He's completely unreliable. His skating is very nice and I'd like to see him fix the headcasing but I fear if it hasn't happened by now it ain't gonna happen.
 

MK's Winter

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 9, 2009
The problem with Abbott is that the pattern is obvious. He does just enough to make a big splash at Nationals and get picked for teams, then he bombs out. He's completely unreliable. His skating is very nice and I'd like to see him fix the headcasing but I fear if it hasn't happened by now it ain't gonna happen.

If Abbott can throw down 2 clean programs with a quad he could have a Paul Wylie moment. Jeremy is a wonderful skater he just needs to get his head together. Not making the World team could prove to be excellent motivation.
 

Kinga

Medalist
Joined
Feb 15, 2008
He seems to be suffering from "the Menshov voodoo doll" but in this case it was the Abbott voodoo doll...(sorry, couldn't resist)

The Menshov voodoo doll was a funny joke, but posters here keep overusing it like skaters overuse Carmen music ;).
And Im not even sure if Menshov is that great to start with. I am not entirely sure whether he would have done good job if had been sent to Worlds. OK, considering the poor level of the competition, maybe he could have pulled Ten. ;).

Sorry for OT ;).

Anyway, the next season will be super exciting! Newcomers who established themselves as real talents this season will probably develop super fast: Osmond, Scimeca/Kierim, James/Cipres, Zhijun Li, Yan Han, Gold, Chock/Bates, Aaron - just to name few.
Some older skaters will need to fight back: Suzuki, Dai, Pang/Tong, Kavaguti/Smirnov, Joubert, Verner (?) (though I stopped believing in him), Pechalat/Bourzat, Abbott
Others with average results this season but huge expectations will have to rise to the occassion: Sotnikova, Tukt, Amodio, Brezina, Shibutanis.

And those super hungry for big success, they are almost there: Murakami, Fernandez, Hanyu, MT/M, Reynolds (?), Weaver/Poje

Finally, the final of the biggest rivalry: Davis/White, Virtue/Moir.

I tell you guys, it is going to be an epic season!!!
 
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