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Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2006
The OGM is Chan's to lose. If he can skate reasonably clean its in the bag. Same goes for Yu-na. Hanyu will probably be the closest challanger for gold, but i don't think Sochi will be his time yet, and Takahashi's best chance was in 2010. But I seriously hope he can prove me wrong. I know he can.

I disagree that either Kostner nor Asada are locks for medals. Both and capable of having serious jump issues and a fall with a << on the triple axel in the short for Mao would be disastrous. the russian girls might actually get it together with home country pressure.

For dance, it could go either way. I still feel that Virtue and Moir are in many ways "the ones to beat" but we basically don't know anything until we see how both teams start next season. Now Tessa and Scott are the ones doing the chasing so they might have the fire in their belly that Meryl and Charlie had last summer. bronze is kind of a guessing game, but I'll put my money on the Russians.

V/T are the favorites in dance, they have come a long way, I just hope they get two programs that show off their strengths. I hope S/S can prove us wrong...they certainly have the goods its just a matter of being reasonably clean.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
There is a sub-zero chance that S/Z will return. What would be their motivation?

It wouldnt be their motivation this time, it would be the Chinese fed. and their desperation with their plunging fortunes in pairs. The same reason Pang & Tong are even still competing IMHO. I agree it is very unlikely still, but I thought I would just throw that out to see if anyone else had considered it.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
As well as Barazova & Larionov, who I still think are threats for a medal in Sochi even after a poor Worlds.

This. If she doesn't get injured again next Season hopefully not, B/L performance at Worlds were better than expected coming form injuries who didn't have any falls
in a way even better than K/S who will have no chance for a medal sadly maybe 4th highst placement for them
 

MaiKatze

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 4, 2012
I read in several german articles that trainer-S said S/S will up their technical difficulties in their programs next season. They have a plan. You're right ptfan, S/S did their own share of stupid mistakes. Maybe starting order might be another factor. V/T will probably win it, I'm not denying that. I just strongly disagree with the opinion that S/S won't medal at all! No way that S/S will be 4th or even move down more. That will only happen if they have an epic splatfest.

I don't know what it is like in Russia but I assume V/T surely are highly respected and supported by their fed. S/S are having a really hard time here in Germany. Nobody cares about them and their coach is hated. Being at the top without the support of your own country must be very exhausting.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Increasing technical difficulty. I am not sure what they can increase at this point, would they do both a throw quad and throw triple axel. Throws and lifts were always their technical strength, although lifts just have to meet generic level 4 requirements and you cant get extra credit for difficulty or originality beyond that under silly COP, only more GOE points. I cant see them doing a quad twist, as they dont have a great triple to begin with. I also dont think they are the singles skaters that Megan and Eric for example are to do side by side triple lutzes or flips and be consistent on them.

Wow that is amazing to hear about what you said about them at home in Germany though. I didnt know all that. That must be hard, although one thing I did know is Ingo Steuer was in trouble for association with a mob at some point, and it was possible he was going to not be allowed to coach anymore.
 

Cherryy

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 27, 2012
MEN
Chan, Hanyu and Fernandez for sure will be in top 5, I can guarantee you that. I loved Ten's performance but apart from this silver medal, what are his other achievements? He hadn't even won a GP medal yet and he needed help from others to take that silver. Daisuke is still in the mix I would say even though he wasn't at his best at 4cc and worlds. As of know I'm predicting
1. Chan (well, it's pretty sure)
2/3 Hanyu/Fernandez
3/4 One of the above or Daisuke
5. Hard to say, many men can fight for it.

Ladies
It seems so obvious Yuna will take gold. She could basically perform 4 triples and still win (this year's worlds case). I'm literally praying Mao will have the skate of her life but Mao with 8 triples (including 3A and 3-3) could still lose to Yuna. And we all know 8-triple program is not likely to happen. However she is a serious contender for silver I would say. Caro was unable to skate to her potential at her both Olys, it might happen again. Still, she could beat a bunch of ladies on PCS alone, jumping lets say 3 triples and take the bronze. On the other hand, if Caro skates clean she can unfortunately easily beat Mao and even Kim so gold is not out of question. These 3 ladies seem to be some kind of a lock for podium, though the order may change. Who could be a threat to them? Russians, Americans, Li Zijun, Osmond would all have to be 100% clean to have any chance of beating them and it's still highly doubtful. My picks:
1. Yuna
2. Mao
3. Carolina
4. Some kind of a spoiler

Pairs
V/T will win. No need to explain. S/S probably 2nd but D/R are fighting for this silver. 4-5 still open.

Ice Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
(huge gap)
3-5 widely open.

What I find to be sad is that it seems to be so predictable. V/T is a lock for gold now, who can be a threat to D/W and V/M? We all know Patrick and Caro will finish on the podium and Yuna is going to be a double OGM.
On the other hand even though I'm totally not into Ice Dance I would be happy if D/W win gold. V/M had their, let someone else be happy! I would be extremely sad had D/W not won that gold. That's also a reason I would like someone other than Yuna to take the gold. I appreciate her a lot but she already is a gold medalist, there are others that also deserve this title :).
 

MaiKatze

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 4, 2012
^I agree with your post. And it also made me realize, how boring this really could turn out to be. I honestly don't see any real surprises here. Maybe Plushenko will upset the men and take that medal from Chan. (No one is adding him in the predictions, I wonder why...this is Sochi!) Thinking about it, the Mens event is still the one which could be more interesting. But then PChan will probably win it no matter what he does. It's another year, though. Last year, people wouldn't have predicted the Worlds Outcome from this year, so it all depends on how the skaters present themselves next season and specifically on these fateful two nights in February!

I think Yuna is amazing and deserves all the medals in the world! But it must be frustrating for skaters at the top like Carolina and Mao who fought so hard all this time, and then she just arrives and leaves them all behind with almost no chance of catching up. Hard!
 

Becki

Medalist
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
I think S/S are far from out. They had a bad season, with sickness and mediocre programs. I don't think they will get the gold, but V/T can and have made stupid mistakes before, so they might spoil themselves their own victory. At no point I believe that S/S will finish off podium. No way.

For Men it is the hardest to predict. To be honest, I also don't believe that Denis Ten will be on the podium. If the top form is there I think it will be between Hanyu and Fernandez if they keep up their nerves. Chan might get the gold, but I'm not so sure. Russia is not Canada. My biggest wish is a Daisuke medal, no matter what colour but it will be hard and he won't be able to make any mistakes at all. And that is extremely hard to do.

Ladies: Yuna has it in the bag. Unless Carolina or Mao melt down they will battle it out for Silver. I see no other lady that can spoil this atm, although I'd love it if Kanako would rise to the occasion or even Akiko.

Yeah I think Denis Ten will seriously have to prove himself. He was gifted in the PCs department this year!

For Men, I still think Hanyu, Takahashi (if he lands his jumps), and Chan are the main contenders for gold.
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
I think Yuna is amazing and deserves all the medals in the world! But it must be frustrating for skaters at the top like Carolina and Mao who fought so hard all this time, and then she just arrives and leaves them all behind with almost no chance of catching up. Hard!

It's not Yuna's fault that these two lost. They lost because they made too many mistakes.

Who knows what kind of PCS they would get if they were clean in the LP. Caro gave up at least 10 points on the TES front and god knows how many on the PCS front in the LP alone. Mao gave up at least as much. They have to be more consistent. I'm sure they are not begrudging Yuna because they messed up badly.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I think the medal contenders in Sochi for the ladies will be the WC medalists, Gold, Adelina, Zijun and Akiko. I'm just not convinced Mao and Carolina will be able to deliver under Olympic pressure and there will be a lot of good skaters who potentially can land 10 triples (3 + 7) in Sochi. I don't think Wagner will be a factor because of her lower BV, and Kaetlyn to me looks like she has to save the landings on most of her jumps and so I think her technique isn't secure enough to deliver 2 clean skates.
 

Colanboy

Rinkside
Joined
Apr 27, 2011
I think Yuna is amazing and deserves all the medals in the world! But it must be frustrating for skaters at the top like Carolina and Mao who fought so hard all this time, and then she just arrives and leaves them all behind with almost no chance of catching up. Hard!

:laugh: Very true, but sport is sport. Yuna doesn't owe her competitors anything.
 

ks777

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 15, 2003
I think the only skater that could challenge Yuna is Gracie Gold. If Gold can hire a better choreographer and work hard on polishing her postures(I think she has good body lines) and if She can handle the pressure and lands everything with a better program, I believe she can challenge Yuna.
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
I think the only skater that could challenge Yuna is Gracie Gold. If Gold can hire a better choreographer and work hard on polishing her postures(I think she has good body lines) and if She can handle the pressure and lands everything with a better program, I believe she can challenge Yuna.

I think that's asking to much. Even if the Olympics were in 2016 i'm not sure Gracie would be good enough.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
I think the only skater that could challenge Yuna is Gracie Gold. If Gold can hire a better choreographer and work hard on polishing her postures(I think she has good body lines) and if She can handle the pressure and lands everything with a better program, I believe she can challenge Yuna.

If she can actually match Yuna's mental focus under pressure, then Gracie can challenge Yuna technically, but that's about it. Her PCS marks are not going to soar from 7's to 9's over just one GP season. I just don't see it happening, but that's what it would take to beat Yuna in good condition. (Yuna in top condition like at Worlds, I don't think Gracie has any hope of beating that.)
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Yeah I agree. Gold would realistically have way too much PCS in just a single year to challenge Yu Na, even if she starts doing her very best technically in competition (in which case she could make the TES close, but that is it). If she works hard on her artistry maybe she could reach the point in 2 or 3 years to challenge a hypothetical Yu Na, but Yu Na will be gone (or atleast taking a break) by then anyway so she wont need to worry about her, LOL!
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
I think the only skater that could challenge Yuna is Gracie Gold. If Gold can hire a better choreographer and work hard on polishing her postures(I think she has good body lines) and if She can handle the pressure and lands everything with a better program, I believe she can challenge Yuna.

I think Gracie has the potential to become the "next" Yuna, so to speak, if she shows that she can manage her nerves and skate clean programs under pressure. Also, her team needs to get her to David Wilson, stat, before the airplane arms and somewhat frantic movements become habit. But at the Olympics, Gracie won't likely be ready to challenge for a medal, much less challenge Yuna herself--her PCS leaves a lot of room for others to sneak in front of her.
 

TontoK

Hot Tonto
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 28, 2013
Country
United-States
Whether Gracie contends for a medal or not... who knows.

But a year is a LONG time for a girl at this stage of maturity and development.

Predictions about her artistry are premature.

In terms of future competitiveness, she's better off with big jumps and a need to improve artistically than the other way around.

I
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Country
France
MEN
1. Hanyu
2. Chan
3. Plushenko
4. Fernandez
5. Takahashi

WOMEN
1. Yu-na Kim
2. Mao Asada
3. Carolina Kostner
4. Adelina Sotnikova
5. Kanako Murakami

DANCE
1. Virtue/Moir (Don't underestimate them just because they were behind this season...that mostly had to do with their programs, and you can bet they'll have much more judge-friendly programs next season)
2. Davis/White
3. Bobrova/Soloviev
4. Weaver/Poje
5. Pechalat/Bourzat

PAIRS
1. Volosozhar/Trankov
2. Savchenko/Szolkowy
3. Pang/Tong (I just have a hunch they'll pull it together for the Olympics)
4. Duhamel/Radford
5. Kavaguti/Smirnov
 

kimganos

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 9, 2012
It's not Yuna's fault that these two lost. They lost because they made too many mistakes.

Who knows what kind of PCS they would get if they were clean in the LP. Caro gave up at least 10 points on the TES front and god knows how many on the PCS front in the LP alone. Mao gave up at least as much. They have to be more consistent. I'm sure they are not begrudging Yuna because they messed up badly.

I think if all 3 ladies skate clean it will be a lot closer then people think.
 
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