What do Ashley or Gracie need to do to Medal in Sochi | Page 6 | Golden Skate

What do Ashley or Gracie need to do to Medal in Sochi

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
I don't dispute she gets the highest PCS. I'm saying relative to what a skater actually delivers in competition, she's nowhere near as generously scored as Carolina. Before the 2010-2011 season Carolina was a frequent headcase and had numerous meltdowns, but you'd never know it by her PCS.

Her PCS was 5th in the SP, and 10th in the LP at the Olympics. She was 2 points less than Rachael, ok.
Btw, Kim was at mess at 2009 Skate America, and her PCS beat Rachael by how many points? 6.
The only one truly saved by PCS is Kim.
Again, don't get it twisted.
 

bump

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 15, 2013
Ok let's get this topic of conversation back on track. So basically we all agree Ashley probably won't medal unless the women who are more talented than her totally blow it. As for Gracie...eh, maybe if she stops with the immature princess routine stuff she has a chance. Otherwise, she'll have to wait until she actually matures and knows how to interpret her music.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
Her PCS was 5th in the SP, and 10th in the LP at the Olympics. She was 2 points less than Rachael, ok.
Btw, Kim was at mess at 2009 Skate America, and her PCS beat Rachael by how many points? 6.
The only one truly saved by PCS is Kim.
Again, don't get it twisted.

Oh please. There's so much self-delusion in this statement that I'm not even going to argue. :rolleye: Kim was rarely saved by PCS compared to Carolina. Carolina got so many undeserved higher placement because of her PCS that no one but your highness would dispute.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Ok let's get this topic of conversation back on track. So basically we all agree Ashley probably won't medal unless the women who are more talented than her totally blow it. As for Gracie...eh, maybe if she stops with the immature princess routine stuff she has a chance. Otherwise, she'll have to wait until she actually matures and knows how to interpret her music.

"Blowing it" is an extreme term, IMO, especially in Mao's case. She and Yuna were the undisputed frontrunners in Vancouver, but the field at Sochi will be deeper--all it would take for Mao to drop off the podium is a few UR'ed jumps. I don't doubt that she'll be looking to pack in as much technical difficulty as possible, which will give the judges room to deduct since she rarely (if ever) lands seven or eight clean triples.
 

jaylee

Medalist
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
1. Yuna is more consistent. So you don't see her doing terrible messy programs all the time. When she did, she got generous PCS. If you did 5 messy programs, and got generous 5 times. THAT IS ALL THE TIME. 100% of the times.

Yu-Na didn't have 5 messy programs. I doubt you even looked at Yu-Na's 2008 GPF SP. She had one mistake, a popped jump. Using your standard of a "mess", I don't even know where to begin with Carolina Kostner--who won 2012 Worlds with a "messy" SP since she had a doubled jump. Your definition, not mine.

2. Caro is inconsistent. Her PCS have dropped to 7th or 8th the competition. Not nearly as outrageous as Kim's.

Yeah, Kostner's PCS dropped to 7th or 8th while her TES was near rock bottom. Case in point, the 2010 Olympics. Kostner got the 9th highest overall PCS in the FS. She had the lowest TES of all 24 competitors. The judges decided that her performance merited top 10 PCS even though she had so many errors and issues that she accomplished the least technically of all 24 skaters. But Kim is the one whose PCS is outrageous? Seems like black is white and white is black with you.

http://www.isuresults.com/results/owg2010/SEG004.HTM

What are you arguing, anyway? So you admit that Carolina frequently gets high PCS when she has mistakes because she's inconsistent; Yu-Na gets high PCS when she makes mistakes but she's more consistent...but your conclusion is that Yu-Na is the queen of PCS when the number of times that Carolina has benefited from high PCS in spite of mistakes far outnumbers Yu-Na's?

The number of times that Carolina has gotten high PCS when she's made mistakes is significantly higher than the number of times Yu-Na has gotten high PCS when she's made mistakes.
The number of times that Carolina has gotten an improved placement because she's gotten high PCS (versus her placement according to TES) is significantly higher than the number of times Yu-Na has gotten a better placement due to PCS versus her TES (zero).
The difference in PCS/TES ranking (i.e. 2010 Olympics FS - 9th highest PCS; 24th TES) is FAR bigger for Carolina than it ever was for any other skater. Find me a time in the FS that Yu-Na received a PCS 15 places higher than where her TES would have put her.

3. The fallacy that Yuna fans have used ALL the time over the year that PCS made a significant difference is so stupid that you discredited it in the same breathe. Whatever PCS Carolina has gotten, it didn't boost her past Irina in 2005, Mao in 2008. There's no difference. Idiots fall for that fallacy all the time. Thanks for agreeing with me. :laugh:

It has boosted Carolina past many skaters who were cleaner than her in both segments. Her overall placement would've been even worse had she not gotten such a huge boost PCS. And you reference 2008 Worlds, many felt Kim and Yukari Nakano should've been ahead of Kostner.

4. Yes, I've said Caro was messy at 2013 Worlds. No one is saying otherwise.

So she was a mess at 2013 Worlds, received very high PCS, and that additional PCS allowed her to get the silver over skaters who were cleaner than she was. That's a fact.

Carolina has beautiful skating skills and some wonderfully unique programs, and a case can definitely be made that she deserves relatively high PCS even when she has mistakes. That's not a problem in itself. What's debatable is whether or not she deserves that much PCS and as frequently as she receives it. What's not really debatable is whether Kostner has benefited more from PCS than Yu-Na has. You don't have much of an argument here, the protocols and performances don't support you.

Her PCS was 5th in the SP, and 10th in the LP at the Olympics. She was 2 points less than Rachael, ok.
Btw, Kim was at mess at 2009 Skate America, and her PCS beat Rachael by how many points? 6.
The only one truly saved by PCS is Kim.
Again, don't get it twisted.

And Rachael Flatt beat Yu-Na in the FS. But Yu-Na's PCS didn't save her. Rachael Flatt _fell_ in the SP and also had a spin voided in her FS. That's simply too many points given up, and Yu-Na also had one of the best performances of her SP at 2009 Skate America. PCS didn't save her. Not a controversial win decided by PCS. Nice try, though.

---
And tying this back in to the topic of the thread, one of my takeaways from 2013 Worlds is that Kostner is as much a favorite for an Olympic medal of some color as is Patrick Chan, V/T, D/W, and Kim being favorites for the gold. I don't think Kostner will be the one to slip off the podium unless she repeats a performance like 2009 Worlds or 2010 Olympics, which based on her recent success, I don't think she will. So that makes it very tough for the Americans to sneak in--especially since each would have to substantially improve in certain areas to be considered a podium contender--Ashley technically and Gracie artistically--and then be consistent all season along. That's too much to accomplish next season prior to the Olympics. Even Sarah Hughes had done more prior to the Olympic season than what Ashley and Gracie have done at this point. Sarah had the technical arsenal that Ashley lacks (and the more lenient judging system to overlook the flaws), far more senior level experience that Gracie doesn't have, and simply more medals, including the key 2001 Worlds bronze.
 

ElleluvsL

Rinkside
Joined
Oct 24, 2012
Ashley and Gracie will almost certainly get medals in Sochi thanks to the team competition. That's probably the best they can hope for but stranger things have happened in the Olympics before.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
They would only both get a medal if the USFSA decied to have Wagner do the short program and Gold the long. Wagner had better hope Gold does not improve her SPs or she might not get to participate in the team event at all. The U.S might not medal in the team event as well. Canada is certainly the strong gold favorite in the Team Event. Beyond that Japan has much stronger singles in both ladies and mens most likely, but U.S has much stronger dance and pairs, but pairs probably wont be a big point getter for either. France should be strong in the team event. Russia should be very strong in team event, and compared to the U.S way stronger in pairs, stronger in mens if Plushenko comes back (even if Lysacek also does, I have no doubt Plushenko on Sochi ice will easily outscore Evan or any U.S man), and womens looks like U.S now but that could also change, while dance is U.S but not by as much as pairs. The U.S would be in a dogfight for a team medal and would be heavily reliant on Davis & Whites points.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I'll start with Gold.

I think her best shot at a medal might be in this new team event, actually. Right now she seems to be the highest scorer of the US ladies in the long program, so it would make sense to have her skate the FS. Somehow I think the US will really want Lysacek back in full form if they're serious about medaling here.

As for the regular event - it's quite simple: she has the scoring potential in the FS, and her recent scores have reflected that. Now she needs to step up her game in the short program so she can move into that final FS group and put herself in position for a medal. 58 points isn't going to be enough...she will need to move up into the mid-60s at least and that is going to take improvement mainly on the component marks. She needs to continue improving her mental toughness as well - she is handling nerves far better than she did in the beginning of the season, but is still making too many small bobbles and giving up valuable points in the process. She will need every single one of those points if she wants to challenge for a medal.

Now, onto Wagner. It's basically the opposite situation with her - she's got the components and the rep, but is lacking the content. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad she did her part to get us 3 spots back...but from an individual perspective, I'm disappointed with her skates at Worlds. She was far too cautious and this is unlike her. Even after the conservative SP (why didn't she do the 3-3?) she was in fighting position to grab a medal if she went all out in the FS. Instead, she got into defensive mode again just like at Nationals and tightened up. Once she 2-footed that 2A/3T that was basically it. Then she lost focus and went down on those steps. It was still a respectable performance- she could have fallen apart after the mistake, but didn't- but I expect more from her, especially as 2-time US champ and 4th place finisher in 2012. It's like she's talking over and over about getting on the podium and winning, but we're just not seeing that same killer instinct on the ice. This year was a step back from last year.

If she wants a medal in Sochi, she NEEDS that 3-3. No more playing it safe, no excuses, stop talking about it, make like your sponsor and JUST DO IT. And she needs to learn to pace herself so she peaks later in the season. This has been a chronic issue with Wagner, 2012 season notwithstanding...she's almost always better at the start of the season than at the end.

For both - US Nationals is going to be interesting. Gold has beaten Wagner 2x in the FS already...will she close the gap in the SP? I don't think it's a matter of if, but when, that will happen. And everyone better watch out when it does.
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
Oh please. Yuna got generous PCS ALL the time.
2008 GPF SP, she was a mess, but got higher PCS than a clean Mao.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpf0809/gpf0809_SeniorLadies_SP_Scores.pdf
30.44 vs. 29.68

2010 World SP.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2010/wc10_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf
Second highest PCS for a really crappy SP, several mistakes.

2010 World LP.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2010/wc10_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf
Highest PCS, 3 points higher than a clean Mao.

2011 World SP
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2011/wc2011_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf
Highest PCS for a messy program without the 3x3, which is her trump card.

2011 World LP.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2011/wc2011_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf
Again, highest PCS for another messy program.

Don't get it twisted. Yuna is queen of PCS, more often than anyone else. She doesn't make many mistakes, so you don't see her PCS saving her often. But they do when she made mistakes.

Confused much?

Out of the five you posted, her PCS was higher than her TES only TWO TIMES.

The other 3 times, her TES was higher.

So if she's the "queen of PCS" as you say, she is also the "empress of TES", since even when she skates "crappy" and/or "messy" she still manages to get more TES points than PCS.

Your assertion that Yuna's PCS saves her when she makes errors is patently false, even by your own examples.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
if Kim was the Queen of PCS they would have given her the 2008 and 2011 World titles which she narrowly lost by inflating her PCS but they didnt. Heck in 2008 especialy some thought she should have won, and her PCS in the LP with only a singled lutz were several points behind Mao who did a stomach plant, and about equal PCS to a really bad and messy Kostner (Kostners silver at Worlds that year was the most controversial ladies result the last decade, and was heavily booed by the European crowd).
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Not going to waste time with any of Kim's fans.
Kim was a mess in the 2008 SP. Both programs were terrible. She would be the worst World champion in EVER if she won in 2008.

Kostner went for 3F-3T and 3Luz in the SP. And rotated 7 triples in the LP. She was messy, but it was her TES that saved her. Not PCS.
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
Not going to waste time with any of Kim's fans.
Kim was a mess in the 2008 SP. Both programs were terrible. She would be the worst World champion in EVER if she won in 2008.

Kostner went for 3F-3T and 3Luz in the SP. And rotated 7 triples in the LP. She was messy, but it was her TES that saved her. Not PCS.

Why bother when you can't even back up your claims w/ numbers and facts? :shrug:
 

seabm7

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 8, 2011
I got interested and checked the 2008 results. If I remember correctly, the ladies' part during the 2008 World was quite messy. For the medalists,
the score was:

SP Name TES PCS Deduction
1 Carolina Kostner 36.34 27.94 0
2 Mao Asada 35.22 28.88 0
5 Yuna Kim 32.71 28.24 -1

LP
1 Yuna Kim 64.82 58.56 0
2 Asada Mao 61.89 60.57 -1
3 Carolina Kostner 61.88 58.52 0

I hope this helps. :)
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
I got interested and checked the 2008 results. If I remember correctly, the ladies' part during the 2008 World was quite messy. For the medalists,
the score was:

SP Name TES PCS Deduction
1 Carolina Kostner 36.34 27.94 0
2 Mao Asada 35.22 28.88 0
5 Yuna Kim 32.71 28.24 -1

LP
1 Yuna Kim 64.82 58.56 0
2 Asada Mao 61.89 60.57 -1
3 Carolina Kostner 61.88 58.52 0

I hope this helps. :)

Thanks,
Mao got 97.11 combined for TES and 89.45 for PCS
Caro got 98.22 combined for TES and 86.46 for PCS
Yuna got 97.53 combined for TES and 86.76 for PCS

So Caro got the highest TES and and lowest PCS. Some delusional fans continue to harp on and on about something 5 years ago without looking into what happened. So typical.
 

seabm7

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 8, 2011
So Caro got the highest TES and and lowest PCS. Some delusional fans continue to harp on and on about something 5 years ago without looking into what happened. So typical.

Well, it was not Yuna Kim who got the highest PCS at this event. There were several parties involved in the equation. Now can we go back to the original purpose of this thread?
 

koatcue

Medalist
Joined
Aug 31, 2011
Country
Russia
They just need to be clean+have different 3-3
Gracie has the bigger chance to compete and to be on the podium,imho
 

cooper

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
Why bother when you can't even back up your claims w/ numbers and facts? :shrug:

what else is new with that poster? everytime someone who has the knowledge to reply with his posts.. he start generalizing at chickened his way out. just a know it all.

anyway... as for the topic.. there's no doubt that Gracie has the technical content and i believe she will mature in the next few years And anyone has the chance to medal. Ice is slippery.
 

bump

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 15, 2013
what else is new with that poster? everytime someone who has the knowledge to reply with his posts.. he start generalizing at chickened his way out. just a know it all.

anyway... as for the topic.. there's no doubt that Gracie has the technical content and i believe she will mature in the next few years And anyone has the chance to medal. Ice is slippery.


Tis true, anyone has the chance to medal. But for Ashley to medal, Mao or Carolina will basically have to skate across the ice on their behinds.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Not necessarily. Wagner is capable of beating even a relatively good Asada at her best (see 4CC 2012).
 
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