What do Ashley or Gracie need to do to Medal in Sochi | Page 2 | Golden Skate

What do Ashley or Gracie need to do to Medal in Sochi

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
Not sure Gracie is that fast. But anyways...I did think London World's seem to be more budget conscious but maybe it is just me.
 

lavender

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Definitly true.
Gracie has really good speed and power and her SS are fine, she needs better choreography and refinement though (which will come with time, but I'm not too sure she'll manage that until next year already).

And I don't get why people think Ashley is so fast? It's not as if she was creeping over the ice, but she's not having really good speed either. That said, the most important thing will be the 3-3 + 2A-3T, but I'm not too sure she'll get them. She didn't even attempt the 3-3 the whole season. Playing it safe this season might not have been the best idea. Additionally, while her movements are controlled and elegent, she looks pretty wooden and stiff to me. Working on that might improve her PCS.

Anyway, I really hope the podium in Sochi will consist of Yuna, Mao and Carolina. Bacause if it doesn't, it means at least one of those three messed up pretty badly, and I don't want that to happen. I want everyone to deliver good performances and see an amazing event :)

I totally agree with this although wouldn't mind if Akiko crashed the party. I am wishing for one a little more than the others to win it all.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Lots of skaters had problems with the small rink in London. Max Aaron jumped right into the boards, too (he trains at an Olympic-sized rink). Gracie had more problems than most of the ladies because she is so fast and her jumps are so huge.

This is especially evident in the video of Gracie's free skate. Her turn out of the 3-3, while probably caused by nerves, actually saved her from skating right into the boards. And she might have landed that 2A had she not skidded into the side of the rink first.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
(she can reach 60 PCS, that's enough)

It depends. If Kostner and Asada skate exactly as they did at Worlds this year (including the SP misses) then it "might" be enough to win a bronze if she skated 2 totally clean programs. If Kostner and Asada skate somewhat cleaner than they did at Worlds this year (and I believe they are capable to, and it is far more likely than Gold skating 2 totally clean programs) it would require higher PCS than that to hope for a medal. I wont even discuss Kim who would have to have an outing like the 2011 Worlds or worse to come close to losing to a current U.S girl, no matter how well any of them skate.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
It depends. If Kostner and Asada skate exactly as they did at Worlds this year (including the SP misses) then it "might" be enough to win a bronze if she skated 2 totally clean programs. If Kostner and Asada skate somewhat cleaner than they did at Worlds this year (and I believe they are capable to, and it is far more likely than Gold skating 2 totally clean programs) it would require higher PCS than that to hope for a medal. I wont even discuss Kim who would have to have an outing like the 2011 Worlds or worse to come close to losing to a current U.S girl, no matter how well any of them skate.

Unfortunately for them Kim's motivation to compete is back, unlike 2011 Worlds when she didn't want to be there at all (and it showed). I don't see her repeating such costly mistakes next year to leave the door wide open for Ashley or Gracie. Moreover, she's doing the GP series next season so whatever happens, it won't be for lack of preparation or motivation.

Kim's strongest performances came at the most critical competitions (Worlds-before-Olympics and Olympics). She seems to thrive under immense pressure. I expect Sochi to be no different.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
Well, a fanciful way to look at how to get Wagner and Gold to win two medals are - mao and carolina have problems. Wagner and gold skate clean. have Liza skate well and add her triple axel during the GP. Have both Liza and mao landing the axel (3) scaring Yuna who as a result starts pushing herself and she falls apart. then come Oly Liza falls apart, and the other shave their problems and fall to the pressure allowing Wagner and Gold and heck why not an American sweep lol too while we are at it.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
Well, a fanciful way to look at how to get Wagner and Gold to win two medals are - mao and carolina have problems. Wagner and gold skate clean. have Liza skate well and add her triple axel during the GP. Have both Liza and mao landing the axel (3) scaring Yuna who as a result starts pushing herself and she falls apart. then come Oly Liza falls apart, and the other shave their problems and fall to the pressure allowing Wagner and Gold and heck why not an American sweep lol too while we are at it.

OK. So then Kwan makes a comeback at Nationals and wins gold in Sochi, with Wagner and Gold taking silver and bronze...fanciful indeed. :p
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
Lots of skaters had problems with the small rink in London. Max Aaron jumped right into the boards, too (he trains at an Olympic-sized rink). Gracie had more problems than most of the ladies because she is so fast and her jumps are so huge.

I'm not sure what this has anything to do with what Gracie needs to do to win an Olympic medal? As I recall, neither CaroK nor Yuna Kim (as we can all agree, they're both well-known for their speed and big jumps) crashed into the boards. It's part of being able to control your speed and power to ensure that such things do not happen. And it's not like the size of the rink in London was a top secret. Gracie and Max could've adjusted their training to get used to the smaller rink.
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
Kim's strongest performances came at the most critical competitions (Worlds-before-Olympics and Olympics). She seems to thrive under immense pressure. I expect Sochi to be no different.

In her most recent fan even interview, Yuna said she is less nervous at big comps than at smaller comps when she's well-prepared, which I assume to mean no injury and training going as planned or better. So that's a big advantage she has since she won't let nerves screw her up at the most pressure-filled competitions like WC or Olympics.
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
I I wont even discuss Kim who would have to have an outing like the 2011 Worlds or worse to come close to losing to a current U.S girl, no matter how well any of them skate.

I agree she did poorly (?) in 2011, but so what? She still got the WC silver, when she didn't even want to be at the comp in the 1st place. How many ladies can just waltz into the Worlds w/o having competed even once all season long AND not wanting to be there but still skate away w/ a nice hardware around their neck?

I actually think that Yuna would have to skate even worse than the 2011 WC in order for a US girl to beat her in Sochi. I'd say Yuna has about a 3-4 fall margin on any US girls, sadly. And I just don't see Yuna making that many errors, unless she's injured, her skate blade implodes in the middle of the program or something.
 

ivy

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 6, 2005
Worlds this year turned pretty much as conventional wisdom predicted for the Ladies, but that seems to be more the aberation then the rule. Also Kostner and Asada both showed moments of weakness. A season is a long time. Ashley went from the 'almost girl' to US #1 in a season. I'm not saying it's likely for any US woman to medal at Olys, just not that impossible. Just ask Daisuke, Hanyu and Denis about expectations and reality when it comes to medals.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I agree she did poorly (?) in 2011, but so what? She still got the WC silver, when she didn't even want to be at the comp in the 1st place. How many ladies can just waltz into the Worlds w/o having competed even once all season long AND not wanting to be there but still skate away w/ a nice hardware around their neck?

I actually think that Yuna would have to skate even worse than the 2011 WC in order for a US girl to beat her in Sochi. I'd say Yuna has about a 3-4 fall margin on any US girls, sadly. And I just don't see Yuna making that many errors, unless she's injured, her skate blade implodes in the middle of the program or something.

I wasnt begruding Kim her showing at the 2011 Worlds, where despite making 3 errors to only 1 error for Miki Ando, and also omiting her planned triple-triple in the short program, I and many others other feel she was robbed of winning. To skate as she did there when she arguably was pushed into even being there was remarkable in hindsight, regardless of her placement. My point was only that she would have to drop to that level of skating at the Games (virtually impossible as she now seems motivated, healthy, and hungry, and even her worst days do not reach that level when she is motivated, hungry, and healthy) for a U.S girl to hope to beat her given the level they are at now (and even factoring in the highest realistic improvement in just a year). Yes you are probably right she would have to skate even worse to lose to them as things stand now, but I was factoring in the chance of improvement, especialy for the younger Gold.

The way I see it now is Kim is on one side of the cliff, Kostner and Asada together make a bridge, and there are about 7 ladies including both top 2 U.S ladies on the other side of the cliff. The bridge (Kostner and Asada) is possibly in reach with a giant stretch from the 7 lady side of the cliff, and the other side of the cliff (Kim) is possibly in reach with a giant stretch from the bridge (Kostner and Asada). However the 7 lady side of the cliff cannot possibly hope to reach all the way to the other side of the cliff entirely no matter how hard they stretch. Aka there is an outside chance for Kostner or Asada to beat Kim in Sochi for the gold, and there is an outside chance for Gold, Murakami, Wagner (much less likely as she probably doesnt have the capacity for improvement someone like Gold does at this point), or a Russian (with help of home ice factor) to beat Kostner and/or Kim for a podium spot, but IMHO there is no chance for someone like Gold, Wagner, Sotnikova, or Tuktamysheva to beat Kim in Sochi.

Frankly though if the top 3 dont end up not only the same podium but the exact same order as this years Worlds I will be slightly amazed. Kostner slipping behind Asada is most likely, but even that is quite unlikely IMO. Kostner would need to skate perfectly to hope to beat Kim, and I dont think she has that in her, especialy at an event like the Olympics. Asada gives too much in GOE and PCS to Kostner at this point, and her current jump layout and almost impossible for her to execute without errors as well, and Kostner tends to be better at limiting her mistakes these days. Asada was beating everyone all season until Kim and Kostner came back even with only 3 clean triples and not trying the tough stuff yet. So you get the picture.
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
I wasnt begruding Kim her showing at the 2011 Worlds, where despite making 3 errors to only 1 error for Miki Ando, and also omiting her planned triple-triple in the short program, I and many others other feel she was robbed of winning. To skate as she did there when she arguably was pushed into even being there was remarkable in hindsight, regardless of her placement. My point was only that she would have to drop to that level of skating at the Games (virtually impossible as she now seems motivated, healthy, and hungry, and even her worst days do not reach that level when she is motivated, hungry, and healthy) for a U.S girl to hope to beat her given the level they are at now (and even factoring in the highest realistic improvement in just a year). Yes you are probably right she would have to skate even worse to lose to them as things stand now, but I was factoring in the chance of improvement, especialy for the younger Gold.

The way I see it now is Kim is on one side of the cliff, Kostner and Asada together make a bridge, and there are about 7 ladies including both top 2 U.S ladies on the other side of the cliff. The bridge (Kostner and Asada) is possibly in reach with a giant stretch from the 7 lady side of the cliff, and the other side of the cliff (Kim) is possibly in reach with a giant stretch from the bridge (Kostner and Asada). However the 7 lady side of the cliff cannot possibly hope to reach all the way to the other side of the cliff entirely no matter how hard they stretch. Aka there is an outside chance for Kostner or Asada to beat Kim in Sochi for the gold, and there is an outside chance for Gold, Murakami, Wagner (much less likely as she probably doesnt have the capacity for improvement someone like Gold does at this point), or a Russian (with help of home ice factor) to beat Kostner and/or Kim for a podium spot, but IMHO there is no chance for someone like Gold, Wagner, Sotnikova, or Tuktamysheva to beat Kim in Sochi.

Frankly though if the top 3 dont end up not only the same podium but the exact same order as this years Worlds I will be slightly amazed. Kostner slipping behind Asada is most likely, but even that is quite unlikely IMO. Kostner would need to skate perfectly to hope to beat Kim, and I dont think she has that in her, especialy at an event like the Olympics. Asada gives too much in GOE and PCS to Kostner at this point, and her current jump layout and almost impossible for her to execute without errors as well, and Kostner tends to be better at limiting her mistakes these days. Asada was beating everyone all season until Kim and Kostner came back even with only 3 clean triples and not trying the tough stuff yet. So you get the picture.

Oh so sorry. I wasn't attacking you or anything. I just thought Kim's 2011 showing being what it was -- the only season where she didn't even bother to really try as she was being pushed into competing that season -- and still good enough for silver (with some thinking she should've won the comp altogether), I just didn't think Wagner & Gold and whoever ends up being the US #3 would beat Kim when she actually tries to do her best. I think Kim's 2011 is good enough to beat Wagner & Gold's 2013 WC.

When Yuna announced her comeback, she spoke of 유종의 미, which roughly translates to the beautiful ending or high note. Given how careful she is about setting expectations (the Korean media is absolutely psychotic when it comes to her), she wouldn't have used that word if she didn't plan to defend her title with everything she's got.
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
I'm not sure what this has anything to do with what Gracie needs to do to win an Olympic medal? As I recall, neither CaroK nor Yuna Kim (as we can all agree, they're both well-known for their speed and big jumps) crashed into the boards. It's part of being able to control your speed and power to ensure that such things do not happen. And it's not like the size of the rink in London was a top secret. Gracie and Max could've adjusted their training to get used to the smaller rink.

It was the first World's for both skaters, and both have limited experience on any international event, especially at the Senior level.

Both made the mistakes of inexperience. Having the practice rink be Olympic size while the competition rink was a bit small even for a hockey rink can't have helped, either.
 

Jaana

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 27, 2003
Country
Finland
I think that only one of US ladies has a possibility to stand on the Olympic podium. That lady definetely needs a triple-triple combination (preferably triple lutz-triple toe) plus a very smart CoP choreography.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
Not sure Gracie is that fast. But anyways...I did think London World's seem to be more budget conscious but maybe it is just me.

She is VERY fast compared to most ladies. Yuna and Carolina are faster for sure, but not many others if any.
 

jaylee

Medalist
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
The way I see it now is Kim is on one side of the cliff, Kostner and Asada together make a bridge, and there are about 7 ladies including both top 2 U.S ladies on the other side of the cliff. The bridge (Kostner and Asada) is possibly in reach with a giant stretch from the 7 lady side of the cliff, and the other side of the cliff (Kim) is possibly in reach with a giant stretch from the bridge (Kostner and Asada). However the 7 lady side of the cliff cannot possibly hope to reach all the way to the other side of the cliff entirely no matter how hard they stretch.

By far the most creative metaphor I've seen in this kind of discussion. :thumbsup: :laugh:

I agree that it's just really tough to imagine that the US girls, who didn't medal at the most important Worlds before the Olympics (and don't have any world medals at all), medaling at the Olympics next year no matter how much they improve and how the competition goes. I really like Gracie--great presence on the ice, great jumps and spins--but she desperately needs better choreography to get higher PCS. Even if she gets it next season, I don't see her making the big enough artistic transformation to get higher PCS in time for the Olympics. However, she is gaining valuable experience competing on this level, and a strong showing throughout next season and at the Olympics can set her up very nicely throughout the following quad. :cool:
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
She is VERY fast compared to most ladies. Yuna and Carolina are faster for sure, but not many others if any.

I've seen her live. I don't think she was the fastest of the US girls.
Even Ashley is faster than Gracie.

She has above average speed. Maybe at 75 percentile. Her speed wouldn't be the thing that hold her down. But "VERY fast" is just wrong.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I've seen her live. I don't think she was the fastest of the US girls.
Even Ashley is faster than Gracie.

She has above average speed. Maybe at 75 percentile. Her speed wouldn't be the thing that hold her down. But "VERY fast" is just wrong.

I havent seen Gold skate live yet but live does look alot different than on TV (I know that from the many skaters I have seen live) so I am always interested to hear the views of Gold's speed from people who have seen her live.
 
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