What do Ashley or Gracie need to do to Medal in Sochi | Page 5 | Golden Skate

What do Ashley or Gracie need to do to Medal in Sochi

chuckm

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Aug 31, 2003
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I don't think Carolina will bomb, either. She popped one jump and fell on another, and still scored over 130. Mao is more vulnerable than Carolina and YuNa because she has UR issues. If ladies gets a stringent caller, Mao may drop off the podium.

Personally, I would like to see Kostner on the podium. Next year will be her 12th season in the senior ranks. She's come back from injury and adversity and is an inspiration to the other skaters.
 

suzukifan27

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Nov 24, 2012
Is Kaetlyn's LP BV higher than Ashley? I knew the Russians and Gold's were, and Li's based on her Worlds LP, but I had no idea Osmond had a higher BV. If so that is further bad news for her as Osmond can easily match her on GOE and PCS as well, so once she gets more experience she will likely start regularly beating Wagner if she doesnt up her game as well.

No. Kaetlyn has a 6 triple lp. She doesn't have hard 3+3. Osmond's technical content is not all that impressive but Canadian style hype on steroid has inflated the impression of even die-hard fans. Good work, Skate Canada.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
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Aug 21, 2012
I don't think Carolina will bomb, either. She popped one jump and fell on another, and still scored over 130. Mao is more vulnerable than Carolina and YuNa because she has UR issues. If ladies gets a stringent caller, Mao may drop off the podium.

Personally, I would like to see Kostner on the podium. Next year will be her 12th season in the senior ranks. She's come back from injury and adversity and is an inspiration to the other skaters.

Mao will undoubtedly be pulling out the 3A if she wants a shot at beating Yuna in her second go-round, which means an increased likelihood of UR calls. She's the only one of the big three whose podium spot is in imminent danger--if she falters, then several ladies would have realistic shots at winning bronze. Ashley Wagner with a 3-3, Kanako Murakami sans URs, and a healthy Kiira Korpi come to mind immediately.

ITA about Carolina. She's come too far in these last two seasons to drop the ball at the Olympics, and she's shown that she can place ahead of Mao even with serious errors. Only a 2010-style meltdown can keep her from the podium.
 

chuckm

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Is Kaetlyn's LP BV higher than Ashley? I knew the Russians and Gold's were, and Li's based on her Worlds LP, but I had no idea Osmond had a higher BV. If so that is further bad news for her as Osmond can easily match her on GOE and PCS as well, so once she gets more experience she will likely start regularly beating Wagner if she doesnt up her game as well.

No---Ashley's Base Value was 56.63 and her TES 61.34. Kaetlyn's BV was 54.21 and her TES 53.49.

Ashley's planned jump layout: two 3Fs, a 3flutz, two 3Lo, a 3S and a 3T for a total of 7 triples; she landed 6 (2a+3t<)
Kaetlyn's planned jump layout: two 3Fs, a 3flutz, a 3S and two 3T for a total of 6 triples; she landed 4 (falls on 3F and 3T).

Since she only plans 6 triples and most of the top skaters plan 7, Kaetlyn needs to land ALL her triples to be competitive. She did that just once this season, at Challenge, but never in international competition.
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
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Jan 4, 2010
I think 2013 World is very much like 2009 World.

2009, Kim Rochette Ando (with Mao in 4th) -> Kim Mao Rochette Surprise Ando
2013, Kim Kostner Mao (with Murakami in 4th) -> Kim Mao Kostner Surprise Murakami

Mao is slightly more vulnerable than Kostner, but Kostner always makes a few mistakes in her LP. I think Mao will get ahead of Kostner just in time for the Olympics if Kostner does what she normally does. Mao got herself together by 4CC just a month before the Olympics. She can do it again.

Kim needs to worry about programs, actually. If she picks terrible programs, her PCS will be less than Kostner's. The judges have no problem putting her down now.
Kostner needs to skate clean.
Mao needs to clean up her technique even more.

Kim has the easiest path to Gold.
Mao has the hardest path to Gold, but I don't think she has less chance at silver than Kostner.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
I think 2013 World is very much like 2009 World.

2009, Kim Rochette Ando (with Mao in 4th) -> Kim Mao Rochette Surprise Ando
2013, Kim Kostner Mao (with Murakami in 4th) -> Kim Mao Kostner Surprise Murakami

Mao is slightly more vulnerable than Kostner, but Kostner always makes a few mistakes in her LP. I think Mao will get ahead of Kostner just in time for the Olympics if Kostner does what she normally does. Mao got herself together by 4CC just a month before the Olympics. She can do it again.

Kim needs to worry about programs, actually. If she picks terrible programs, her PCS will be less than Kostner's. The judges have no problem putting her down now.
[...]

Huh? PCS has little to do with the actual program really, both in theory and in practice. Miki Ando's LP in 2011 got Kim-like PCS at Worlds 2011 despite the Morozombie choreography. Yuna's PCS hardly ever reflected the quality of her choreography, since PCS is more about reputation, consistency and/or momentum. Judges put skaters in a PCS bracket and tend to keep them there based on performance/execution. They stay in that range unless they have a meltdown. They move up a bracket when they're "promoted" based on results, improvements, politicking, etc. That's the reality. Even in theory, PCS is only directly affected by the program via the two out of the five components: transitions and choreography/composition. The rest have little/nothing to do with the program.
 

pangtongfan

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Jun 16, 2010
I agree that of the top 3 Mao is the one most vurnerable to dropping off the podium. The technical content she is currently trying to pack in is almost unrealistic for her to ever perform all cleanly, so on a good day she is making a couple of mistakes atleast, and on a less good day she can lose alot of additional points on UR calls or two foots, etc.... Even with easier jumping layouts at times she has not done a clean LP in many years now as well. A clean short with the jumps she is currently trying would pretty much ensure her a medal of some color, but if she doesnt do a clean short, and doesnt do a solid long, she is the most vurnerable by far.
 

pangtongfan

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Jun 16, 2010
Kim has the easiest path to Gold.
Mao has the hardest path to Gold, but I don't think she has less chance at silver than Kostner.

The main question in the context of this thread though is who would be the most vurnerable to dropping below bronze and right off the podium. Of the three that would definitely be Mao IMO. Kim has never missed a podium here whole Senior career, and it isnt going to happen next year either. Even on her worst day she is too consistent to make enough mistakes to lose to anyone outside of Kostner or Asada. Her odds of a medal of some color are 100%. Kostner hasnt missed a podium since the 2010 Worlds, never has meltdowns anymore, and is also unlikely to make enough mistakes to lose to anyone outside of Kim or Asada. Her odds to be on the podium in some spot in Sochi are probably atleast 80%. Mao is the only one of those three who can quite conceivably make enough mistakes, and also doesnt get the same GOE and PCS cushion relative to Kim and Kostner to compensate when she makes too many mistakes, that could open for the day for one of the challengers who might improve enough over the next year (eg- Gold) to possibly capatilize on. Her odds of getting silver vs Kostner could be debated (or what exactly her odds of getting gold are at this point), but she is the one with the higher odds of the two (or top three) to not medal, even though obviously still much more favored than anyone else.
 

chuckm

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Kim's skating is simply sublime, so I don't get the idea that the judges are anxious to mark her down. She is smooth, fast and she makes it look so easy. That she beat Kostner and Mao by nearly 20 points says the judges consider Kim out of their league. And she is.
 

Krislite

Medalist
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Sep 22, 2010
Kim's skating is simply sublime, so I don't get the idea that the judges are anxious to mark her down. She is smooth, fast and she makes it look so easy. That she beat Kostner and Mao by nearly 20 points says the judges consider Kim out of their league. And she is.

It isn't so much that judges are anxious to mark her down in the PCS. That's a big ROTFLMAO considering they gave her even higher PCS than in Vancouver and dropped a few 10's in her LP despite what FlattFan thinks is a "terrible" program. It's that Carolina's PCS have been inching up in recent years and is now in the lower end of Yuna's PCS range.

Carolina came to these Worlds as the reigning/defending World Champ. Also, the judges haven't seen Yuna in years, she was skating early and her short program wasn't very accessible, so in her SP they gave her about the same PCS as Carolina. Things changed after the LP, though. I'm pretty sure Yuna's rep points are bigger than ever and so I don't see the judges having "no problem putting her down."

Seriously, she's getting the same/higher PCS as what she got during her 2009-2010 season, and that's a sign of being "put down"?! :laugh:
 

pangtongfan

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Carolina was definitely competitive with Kim on PCS this year, but with Kim regaining her World title in dominant fashion we will have to see if that is the case next year. I suspect not, they might be close, but very unlikely they will be ahead again anytime soon. Thing is regardless of various opinions on the relative quality of overall skating and programs, PCS is as much about momentum, being top ranked, being favored as anything else. That is true in all 4 disciplines for that matter.
 

miki88

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Dec 28, 2009
Mao is slightly more vulnerable than Kostner, but Kostner always makes a few mistakes in her LP. I think Mao will get ahead of Kostner just in time for the Olympics if Kostner does what she normally does. Mao got herself together by 4CC just a month before the Olympics. She can do it again.

Exactly. I don't see Mao as being much more vulnerable than Kostner. There's still some time before Sochi, if there is a possibility others could improve, there is a possibility she could improve more as well.
 

Krislite

Medalist
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Sep 22, 2010
Carolina was definitely competitive with Kim on PCS this year, but with Kim regaining her World title in dominant fashion we will have to see if that is the case next year. I suspect not, they might be close, but very unlikely they will be ahead again anytime soon. Thing is regardless of various opinions on the relative quality of overall skating and programs, PCS is as much about momentum, being top ranked, being favored as anything else. That is true in all 4 disciplines for that matter.

I think they'll continue to be very close, regardless of anyone's opinion on their respective programs. The judges have always favored Carolina above all other ladies and I don't expect that to change now. Yuna has had to fight for her PCS and throw down dominant wins, world records and clean skates to get them. Carolina just gets them even when she zambonies the whole rink.
 

drivingmissdaisy

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Feb 17, 2010
The judges have always loved Carolina, but I feel like she now at least skates well enough to deserve the marks she gets. She used to be bad about telegraphing her flip jump, skating in a straight line down the rink with her arms by her side. She is also more engaging as a performer now. To me she is equal to Yuna on the artistic side, and I like that because they both bring different things to skating. I think Yuna was scored too low in the SP because she skated early, and perhaps too high in the LP because she skated beautifully after all the favorites completed their programs. If Carolina and Yuna both skate clean their marks will be very very close and things like skate order might make the difference. (Although we have yet to see Carolina nail a program like Yuna has at this years Worlds)
 

FlattFan

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I think they'll continue to be very close, regardless of anyone's opinion on their respective programs. The judges have always favored Carolina above all other ladies and I don't expect that to change now. Yuna has had to fight for her PCS and throw down dominant wins, world records and clean skates to get them. Carolina just gets them even when she zambonies the whole rink.

Oh please. Yuna got generous PCS ALL the time.
2008 GPF SP, she was a mess, but got higher PCS than a clean Mao.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpf0809/gpf0809_SeniorLadies_SP_Scores.pdf
30.44 vs. 29.68

2010 World SP.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2010/wc10_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf
Second highest PCS for a really crappy SP, several mistakes.

2010 World LP.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2010/wc10_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf
Highest PCS, 3 points higher than a clean Mao.

2011 World SP
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2011/wc2011_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf
Highest PCS for a messy program without the 3x3, which is her trump card.

2011 World LP.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2011/wc2011_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf
Again, highest PCS for another messy program.

Don't get it twisted. Yuna is queen of PCS, more often than anyone else. She doesn't make many mistakes, so you don't see her PCS saving her often. But they do when she made mistakes.
 

Krislite

Medalist
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Sep 22, 2010
Oh please. Yuna got generous PCS ALL the time.
[...]
Don't get it twisted. Yuna is queen of PCS, more often than anyone else. She doesn't make many mistakes, so you don't see her PCS saving her often. But they do when she made mistakes.

I don't dispute she gets the highest PCS. I'm saying relative to what a skater actually delivers in competition, she's nowhere near as generously scored as Carolina. Before the 2010-2011 season Carolina was a frequent headcase and had numerous meltdowns, but you'd never know it by her PCS.
 

Moment

Final Flight
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Jan 18, 2013
No need to fight... I think both Yuna and Carolina have received high PCSs over their competitors for good reasons.
 

jaylee

Medalist
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
Oh please. Yuna got generous PCS ALL the time.

...

Don't get it twisted. Yuna is queen of PCS, more often than anyone else. She doesn't make many mistakes, so you don't see her PCS saving her often. But they do when she made mistakes.

Who's twisting the facts here? If she doesn't make many mistakes, then she's not saved by PCS. Therefore she's earning her PCS, therefore you're wrong in that she gets "generous PCS ALL THE TIME." Has she gotten generous PCS when she made mistakes? Sure, like every elite skater with a reputation. But as many times as Carolina Kostner has throughout her entire career? Heck no! Don't make me list all the competitions where Carolina Kostner has gotten disproportionately high PCS for a messy program and how it actually made a significant difference in the overall placement. Whatever PCS Yu-Na has gotten, it didn't boost her past other skaters (i.e. she lost to Mao at the 2008 GPF, 2010 Worlds; lost to Miki at the 2011 Worlds). There's a huge difference.

Btw, a pop or a single step out does not make a messy program. :rolleye: Only 2010 Worlds qualifies as a mess for Yu-Na, the other three performances that you list either had a pop or a step-out (two pops at 2011 Worlds FS)--not a mess. If that's a mess, then you must concede that Carolina Kostner's performances at 2013 Worlds (two falls, one pop) or many other performances were messy or worse.
 

FlattFan

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Jan 4, 2010
Who's twisting the facts here? If she doesn't make many mistakes, then she's not saved by PCS. Therefore she's earning her PCS, therefore you're wrong in that she gets "generous PCS ALL THE TIME." Has she gotten generous PCS when she made mistakes? Sure, like every elite skater with a reputation. But as many times as Carolina Kostner has throughout her entire career? Heck no! Don't make me list all the competitions where Carolina Kostner has gotten disproportionately high PCS for a messy program and how it actually made a significant difference in the overall placement. Whatever PCS Yu-Na has gotten, it didn't boost her past other skaters (i.e. she lost to Mao at the 2008 GPF, 2010 Worlds; lost to Miki at the 2011 Worlds). There's a huge difference.

Btw, a pop or a single step out does not make a messy program. :rolleye: Only 2010 Worlds qualifies as a mess for Yu-Na, the other three performances that you list either had a pop or a step-out (two pops at 2011 Worlds FS)--not a mess. If that's a mess, then you must concede that Carolina Kostner's performances at 2013 Worlds (two falls, one pop) or many other performances were messy or worse.

1. Yuna is more consistent. So you don't see her doing terrible messy programs all the time. When she did, she got generous PCS. If you did 5 messy programs, and got generous 5 times. THAT IS ALL THE TIME. 100% of the times.
2. Caro is inconsistent. Her PCS have dropped to 7th or 8th the competition. Not nearly as outrageous as Kim's.
3. The fallacy that Yuna fans have used ALL the time over the year that PCS made a significant difference is so stupid that you discredited it in the same breathe. Whatever PCS Carolina has gotten, it didn't boost her past Irina in 2005, Mao in 2008. There's no difference. Idiots fall for that fallacy all the time. Thanks for agreeing with me. :laugh:
4. Yes, I've said Caro was messy at 2013 Worlds. No one is saying otherwise.
 
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