Which out of Team Canada, Kim, or V&T are biggest gold lock for Sochi | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Which out of Team Canada, Kim, or V&T are biggest gold lock for Sochi

clairecloutier

Final Flight
Joined
Aug 27, 2003
The more I think about the more I am sure V&T are the biggest lock of all, although I will be very surprised if any of V&T, Team Canada, or Kim dont win gold for that matter. They have been pulling away from the pack more and more all year, and S&S who were neck and neck with them for so long, are now fighting to even stay ahead of all the other teams. Their only rivals are a team not from a strong federation who are seen as sliding down (S&S). They also will be in enemy territory in Russia and nobody will come to their defense unfortunately even if the Russians made some huge mistakes, and S&S given their history arent likely to go clean anyway. The next biggest threats are either #2 Russian team who politically are behind V&T in their own countries support (along with being much weaker and more inconsistent skaters) or a Canadian team, and given the Canada-Russia history in skating they find themselves even deeper entrenched in enemy territory and wont be beating the Russians in Russia unless something catastrophic happens. The judges will be sure to give V&T the GOEs and PCS needed to win no matter what, even to compensate for several mistakes if need be.

You may be right about this. However, I'm not sure we should count S&S out just yet. True, this season was very subpar. I don't know what happened, beyond the obvious problem of Aliona's sinus infection. But I'm guessing it was a motivation problem. They've been pretty honest that they stayed in this quad entirely for Sochi. Robin even said at one point that it didn't really matter if they competed in Europeans or even Worlds, since they already have so many of those titles. I got the sense all year they were just sort of riding out this season, weren't really focused on it, and were just waiting for next year and Sochi. I think it will be a different story next year. They definitely want that gold in Sochi, and I think they'll be much more motivated and will skate much better--if they can stay injury- and illness-free. They definitely have the skills and talent to come back strong next year. Despite the lackluster season, they are still clearly better than everyone except V/T (maybe not in the long at Worlds, but overall). It will take some of their best performances to beat V/T, but I don't think it's impossible. Although V/T had a great Worlds, the rest of their season was not great at all. I think they're beatable.

The whole situation reminds me of Klimova/Ponomarenko and the Duchesnays in 1992. Coming off 1991 Worlds, no one gave K/P much chance of winning the Olympics in 1992. Everyone expected the Duchesnays to win the OGM because they were a) coming in as world champions and b) skating in their home country. In fact K/P were not even considered locks for silver, as they were fighting off a home-country challenge from Usova/Zhulin, seen as splitting support within the Russian federation. But in the end, K/P triumphed with skating that was so good it simply could not be denied. I do think S/S have a chance to do the same.
 

TontoK

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^^^

I'm still figuring out the scoring... but an edge call on 3F costs 2-3 points? That seems costly...

A fall would cost 4 right? -3GOE and -1 deduction?
 

Poice

Final Flight
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Mar 29, 2013
After what I saw at Worlds 2013 I'm going to put my money on Yuna Kim. She's incredibly cool-headed skater and her jumps (especially 3Lz+3T) are amazing. I really like Asada, Wagner and others but...gold is for Kim. Of course nothing is certain and I'm waiting for next season programs, because that will be really interesting.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
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Jun 16, 2010
You may be right about this. However, I'm not sure we should count S&S out just yet. True, this season was very subpar. I don't know what happened, beyond the obvious problem of Aliona's sinus infection. But I'm guessing it was a motivation problem. They've been pretty honest that they stayed in this quad entirely for Sochi. Robin even said at one point that it didn't really matter if they competed in Europeans or even Worlds, since they already have so many of those titles. I got the sense all year they were just sort of riding out this season, weren't really focused on it, and were just waiting for next year and Sochi. I think it will be a different story next year. They definitely want that gold in Sochi, and I think they'll be much more motivated and will skate much better--if they can stay injury- and illness-free. They definitely have the skills and talent to come back strong next year. Despite the lackluster season, they are still clearly better than everyone except V/T (maybe not in the long at Worlds, but overall). It will take some of their best performances to beat V/T, but I don't think it's impossible. Although V/T had a great Worlds, the rest of their season was not great at all. I think they're beatable.

The whole situation reminds me of Klimova/Ponomarenko and the Duchesnays in 1992. Coming off 1991 Worlds, no one gave K/P much chance of winning the Olympics in 1992. Everyone expected the Duchesnays to win the OGM because they were a) coming in as world champions and b) skating in their home country. In fact K/P were not even considered locks for silver, as they were fighting off a home-country challenge from Usova/Zhulin, seen as splitting support within the Russian federation. But in the end, K/P triumphed with skating that was so good it simply could not be denied. I do think S/S have a chance to do the same.

Some of what you said could be right, but I still dont think S&S can beat V&T in Russia with all the momentum they have now, and the games being in Russia, without alot of help from V&T. Even if they skate outstandingly the judges will do everything to try and help V&T win with high scores, and they will have to make several mistakes to possibly lose it. I think S&S might be showing the effects of age and a long time in amateur skating too. They might want a revival next year, but it doesnt mean they can make it happen. In the event they did just decide to cruise this year, it was pretty foolish on their parts, as the last thing they could have afforded is V&T to pull away the year before the Olympics in Russia. They were being naive and a bit clueless if they honestly thought they could allow that to happen and still have a good shot at just coming back and taking the OGM.

As for K&P and the D&D in 91 and 92 I dont really see it as the same thing. The Duchensays barely won the 91 Worlds. At those Worlds even Usova & Zhulin led going into the FD at those Worlds, then had 4 1st place votes out of 9 judges in the FD, had only 3 of 9 judges place them lower than K&P (who were only 3rd going into the FD there) in the FD, and still somehow came only 3rd. The 91 Worlds was an incredibly close competition. K&P were at their poorest ever at those Worlds, even stumbling in their CD, and still barely lost winning (should have come only 3rd really). Even Olympics being in France did not guarantee D&D winning, especialy when Klimova & Ponomarenko changed coaches and showed up a vastly improved team for 92. The Duchensays also missed almost the whole season having to change programs which some judges hinted to them were not appropriate, and skated their most lackluster performances in 5 years at the Games. They still only missed gold by 1 judge in both the OD and FD, to a vastly superior Klimova & Ponomarenko who were always in another planet from the Duchensays technically, and this year had far more capativating and superior programs artistically too, showing what it took for K&P to unseat D&D in their home country as the reigning World Champs. Usova & Zhulin also performed light years better than lackluster and blah Duchensays in Albertville, but didnt come anywhere near beating them. Had it not been for the CDs (where K&P won, and D&D, who always struggled in this phase their whole career placed only 3rd) which obviously there arent any of in pairs, I think the judges would have gone ahead and given it to the Duchensays anyway. The gap between V&T and S&S right now is much bigger than the ice dance gap then.
 

ForeverFish

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Aug 21, 2012
^^^

I'm still figuring out the scoring... but an edge call on 3F costs 2-3 points? That seems costly...

A fall would cost 4 right? -3GOE and -1 deduction?

From the ISU's 2012-2013 technical handbook:

"In cases of not taking off from the clean correct edge the Technical Panel will indicate the error to the Judges using the sign “e” (edge). The Technical Panel may watch the replay in slow motion. Each Judge will then decide himself/herself on the severity of the error (major or minor error) and the corresponding GOE reduction."

Since Yuna's edge call was so controversial, it probably wasn't severe enough to dock 2-3 points. She would have scored above 70 without it, but probably not 72-73 when you factor in the points lost on the wonky flying camel spin.

I'm no expert on the scoring system, but falls seem to warrant -2.10 GOE plus an automatic 1-point deduction, leading to a loss of 3.10 points.

ETA: Looking at the protocols, three judges gave her -1 GOE on the flip, three gave her 0 GOE, two gave her +1 GOE, and one gave her -2 GOE. All in all it averages to -0.20 GOE, which dropped her to just below 70.
 

chuckm

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Aug 31, 2003
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^^^

I'm still figuring out the scoring... but an edge call on 3F costs 2-3 points? That seems costly...

A fall would cost 4 right? -3GOE and -1 deduction?

YuNa's edge call in the Worlds 2013 SP cost -0.2. One judge gave her -2, three judges gave her -1, three gave her 0, and two gave her +1; the -2 and one +1 would have been thrown out, leaving -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 +1.
 

prettykeys

Medalist
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
Math

From the ISU's 2012-2013 technical handbook:

"In cases of not taking off from the clean correct edge the Technical Panel will indicate the error to the Judges using the sign “e” (edge). The Technical Panel may watch the replay in slow motion. Each Judge will then decide himself/herself on the severity of the error (major or minor error) and the corresponding GOE reduction."

Since Yuna's edge call was so controversial, it probably wasn't severe enough to dock 2-3 points. She would have scored above 70 without it, but probably not 72-73 when you factor in the points lost on the wonky flying camel spin.

I'm no expert on the scoring system, but falls seem to warrant -2.10 GOE plus an automatic 1-point deduction, leading to a loss of 3.10 points.

ETA: Looking at the protocols, three judges gave her -1 GOE on the flip, three gave her 0 GOE, two gave her +1 GOE, and one gave her -2 GOE. All in all it averages to -0.20 GOE, which dropped her to just below 70.
YuNa lost -0.2 from the edge call, but her clean 3Flip often garners +2 GOE's, and sometimes +3's. As in the LP, that would come out to +1.9 GOE when adjusted.

69.97 + 1.9 + 0.2 = 72.07 which is clearly in the 72-73 range. Nadia is correct.

Not sure what the "wonky flying camel spin" has to do with it, unless you feel she wasn't docked there. But then again, she doesn't always have a wonk flying camel spin.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
YuNa lost -0.2 from the edge call, but her clean 3Flip she often garners +2 GOE's, and sometimes +3's. As in the LP, that would come out to +1.9 GOE.

69.97 + 1.9 + 0.2 = 72.07 which is clearly in the 72-73 range. Nadia is correct.

Not sure what the "wonky flying camel spin" has to do with it, unless you feel she wasn't docked there. But then again, she doesn't always have a wonk flying camel spin.

Mea culpa.

But she clearly was marked down on the flying camel, if the Level 3 is anything to go by. It was a fluke on her part.

ETA: Wasn't the 3F the jump that Yuna nearly missed? If so, that's probably what caused the edge call + deductions.
 

prettykeys

Medalist
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
Mea culpa.

But she clearly was marked down on the flying camel, if the Level 3 is anything to go by. It was a fluke on her part.

ETA: Wasn't the 3F the jump that Yuna nearly missed? If so, that's probably what caused the edge call + deductions.
It was supposedly her 3Lutz. Her air position has an interesting-looking, slightly wild swing in it.

Honestly, edge call or not, I am just relieved that she went (mostly) clean. No sour grapes here at all, especially knowing she could have splatted her 3Lutz.
 

MaiKatze

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 4, 2012
A gold lock. Mmmh, I suppose the really boring result would be this: V/T, Chan, Kim, D/W and Team Canada. So basically this years World Champions. Did that happen before? I mean that all the World Champions from the season before won the Olympics? I hope it won't come this way because it would be boring like I said. I hope and pray that the Olympics at last will be different from this years worlds. I don't want any controversies, I want all to have a clean performance and deliver their best on that night. Just thinking of a mens event like 4CC or Worlds....ew. Please no.

Strangely I also think that Chan is probably the least likely lock, even though he rules the men after Vancouver. I think his star is slowly dimishing and you could see the first signs of it this season. His peak came to soon. (Or too late if you think Vancouver) I'm really curious how the Olympic pressure might get to him. The only reason why I think that V/T are a lock is because Sochi is in Russia. It just won't happen for S/S there. Basically because this is the only real chance of Russia for Gold in Figure Skating. So I think that V/T even have a mistake margin. And mistakes are something that S/S cannot have. It cannot be too obvious though, or there would be outrage. If it wouldn't be Russia S/S would have a chance. But even a Silver Medal would be great, considering they only have Olympic Bronze. They want the Gold, yeah, but I think Silver is something to be proud of too. I wish them a great program and the performance of a life time in Sochi. Yuna is just an amazing wonder to me. I think it is sooo awesome that she is on top without a high value coach. No - she is even coached by the team that coached her when she was small! Isn't that amazing? It is her talent and not the work of some wonder coach. As much as I love Mao - I don't really think it'll happen for her, but there is a slight chance. And I want a medal for Carolina to put the Olympic disasters behind her and end her career on a high note. But Yuna is the lock for me, too.
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
YuNa lost -0.2 from the edge call, but her clean 3Flip often garners +2 GOE's, and sometimes +3's. As in the LP, that would come out to +1.9 GOE when adjusted.

69.97 + 1.9 + 0.2 = 72.07 which is clearly in the 72-73 range. Nadia is correct.

Not sure what the "wonky flying camel spin" has to do with it, unless you feel she wasn't docked there. But then again, she doesn't always have a wonk flying camel spin.

Thanks for the math. I thought people would understand what I meant by Yuna scoring 72-73 w/ a well-executed non-edge-called flip, but I guess not.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
YuNa's edge call in the Worlds 2013 SP cost -0.2. One judge gave her -2, three judges gave her -1, three gave her 0, and two gave her +1; the -2 and one +1 would have been thrown out, leaving -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 +1.

...and so averaging these seven scores and multiplying by .7 gives the final GOE: -2/7 x .7 = -.2. :)
 

TontoK

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Jan 28, 2013
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But in the end, K/P triumphed with skating that was so good it simply could not be denied. I do think S/S have a chance to do the same.

Many know I'm not a fan of pairs skating nowadays, but K/P delivered a free dance for the ages. It was sublime, and just buried D/D. I just don't think S/S can possibly match that level in their pairs free skate.

Someone has to win, I suppose. Chances are it will be V/T. Or it might be S/S if mistakes are made. Or the entire competition might be a train wreck.

In any event, ISU really needs to take a look at the quality of pairs programs we're seeing, and find some way to remedy this. CoP, as it stands, isn't getting the job done in pairs.
 
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