Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post

Alissa's personal best is 182.25, which would have placed her eighth at the 2010 Olympics, fifth at 2011 Worlds (which she was), third at 2012 Worlds, and eighth at 2013 Worlds. Both Ashley and Gracie (a debut senior!) have higher PB's and SB's, and are stronger competitors all-around.

It's hard to say if Alissa will be in shape in time for US Nationals, but as it stands right now, her chances of medaling at the Olympics are effectively zero. You have the Big Three, Wagner and Gold, the Russians, Zijun Li, Suzuki, and Murakami all in the race. And where does that leave Alissa? She has nice spins and artistry, but mediocre jumps (even when she's on). I suppose that, if she were to qualify for and have the SOHL in Sochi, she could be in the top five or six there...but even that would require bad to disastrous performances from several others. Right now, I daresay that even Agnes and Christina could outskate Alissa.
I don't think I disagree with you. I don't think AC has a realistic chance at a medal at the 2014 Olympics. I just think it is not *crazy* to think it could happen, if AC is clean (jumps-wise) and either CK or MA totally falls apart. (Yuna Kim will win a medal no matter what she does, let's face it. She will not be *judged*, though maybe she deserves that.)

Comparisons across seasons are difficult. Judges and technical controllers clearly get more lenient as the Olympics approaches. Anyway it was never my point that AC would win a medal at the Olympics.

I suppose the main point I meant to make was this: the relevant question is: By what criteria ought we decide who gets the "luxury" third spot? My view is that it ought to go to AC (so long as she is decent at Nationals). (E.g., third place should not go to Zawadzki yet again, no matter how scintillating her SP is, if she can't get through her LP without at least two major errors.)