State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season | Page 15 | Golden Skate

State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
I'm not saying that it will happen, or even that I expect it to. But a fan can wish. IF (titanic "if," I know) she can get back to or close to that shape, she'll have a much better shot at medaling at Nationals and getting the Olympic nod.

ETA: Has Edmunds said that she'll be competing at senior Nationals next season? For a skater with almost no JUNIOR international experience, that sounds like an unrealistic goal.

Polina will skate junior internationally (JGP/JW) but most likely will move up to senior at US Nationals. Lots of skaters have followed that path, especially those that haven't had much competition experience. BTW, Polina won Gardena as a Junior (158.45 50.69 107.76).
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Polina will skate junior internationally (JGP/JW) but most likely will move up to senior at US Nationals. Lots of skaters have followed that path, especially those that haven't had much competition experience. BTW, Polina won Gardena as a Junior (158.45 50.69 107.76).

Yes she confirmed this on her ask.fm account http://ask.fm/PolinaEdmunds. She says at Nationals she will compete as a senior lady and then will compete as a junior and maybe senior internationally, meaning JGP in the fall but then potentially senior events after Nationals like 4CC, Olympics, or Worlds, depending on how she does. Several skaters have done this before like Makarova, Korobeynikova, Dornbush, Kovtun, and Yan so it's not entirely out of the realms of possibility. She also said that she's going to try and make the Olympic team, which she wouldn't be considered for if she were skating as a junior at Nationals. She already competed as a junior domestically for 3 seasons already and won the title this year, so idk why she'd bother to stick around in juniors another year, especially when she's age eligible for senior ISU championships this coming season.

Obviously, it will be tough for her to make the Olympic team, but this way she at least has a shot, and competing senior at Nationals won't prevent her from getting to compete at JW, and potentially she could get sent to 4CC or Worlds even if she didn't make the Olympic team, so I think it's smart. She has the hardest technical content of any lady in the US right now anyways, so she has nothing to lose, and if she has UR/puberty/nerve issues and doesn't do so well, it won't look bad and will hardly be noticed because she's a 15 year old making her senior debut in an Olympic year. So I think her decision is really smart actually.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
By "Olympic" I'm guessing she means 2018...

That is probably her realistic goal, but 2014 isn't out of the realms of possibility. If Sasha hadn't competed in 2010, and there were 3 spots for the ladies that year, Christina Gao, who was 15 and making her senior debut, would have been 4th and 1st alternate for the Olympic team (she was 3rd alternate as is). Edmunds is a more complete and stronger technical skater than Gao was in 2010, and she DOES have the hardest content of anyone that will be competing at Nationals (unless Gold brings back her 3f-1/2lo-3s, then she'd just edge her out), so it's not so crazy for her to think she has some chance to make the team. Sure she's a long shot but with 3 spots and the last one up for grabs, I don't think it's unreasonable for her to say she'll "try" to make the team.
 

PolymerBob

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2007
Wow Caroline looks superfit! I think she used to really ramp it up later in the season but I guess with the Olympics coming up she's gotten a head start on training.

I noticed that. She really looks in shape. :eek:

She needs to be in order to overcome the other girls' "national inflation." ( which must truly be a wonderful thing. )
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
As for Zhang...she has MUCH greater obstacles to overcome than "other girls' national inflation". :rolleye:
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
That is probably her realistic goal, but 2014 isn't out of the realms of possibility. If Sasha hadn't competed in 2010, and there were 3 spots for the ladies that year, Christina Gao, who was 15 and making her senior debut, would have been 4th and 1st alternate for the Olympic team (she was 3rd alternate as is). Edmunds is a more complete and stronger technical skater than Gao was in 2010, and she DOES have the hardest content of anyone that will be competing at Nationals (unless Gold brings back her 3f-1/2lo-3s, then she'd just edge her out), so it's not so crazy for her to think she has some chance to make the team. Sure she's a long shot but with 3 spots and the last one up for grabs, I don't think it's unreasonable for her to say she'll "try" to make the team.

It's easy to "woulda,coulda,shoulda" things after the fact, and that's fine, but in doing that, we ignore the "X-Factor" (meaning that it's not guaranteed that everyone would have skated the same without Y Skater - the orders may have been different,etc).

Example: Without Cohen in the mix, would the top 2 have brought their best? Maybe, maybe not...we'll never know.

As for Edmunds, of course she's free to try. I'm sure there are about 9 or 10 ladies that will legitimately try to make the team. But at the end of the day, there are only 3 spots.

That's a bit much to expect from an unknown.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Edmunds is a more complete and stronger technical skater than Gao was in 2010, and she DOES have the hardest content of anyone that will be competing at Nationals (unless Gold brings back her 3f-1/2lo-3s, then she'd just edge her out), so it's not so crazy for her to think she has some chance to make the team. Sure she's a long shot but with 3 spots and the last one up for grabs, I don't think it's unreasonable for her to say she'll "try" to make the team.

Polina may attempt the hardest content, but her substantial UR problem significantly limits her scoring potential.
Here is her winning US junior championship program: 3z+3t<, 3fe+3t<<, 2a, 3lo+2t+2lo<, 3fe, 2a, 3s<
She scored 101.70 (52.57+49.13)

This just does not compare with Gold's US Championship silver medal FS: 3z+3t, 2a+3t, 3lo, 2a, 3z, 3fe+2t+2t, 3s
Gracie scored 132.49 (71.14+61.35).
Gracie occasionally URs the 3t in combination in the SP, where she struggles most with nerves, but her jumps are so big that she doesn't get a string of URs in the FS the way Polina does.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
Polina may attempt the hardest content, but her substantial UR problem significantly limits her scoring potential.
Here is her winning US junior championship program: 3z+3t<, 3fe+3t<<, 2a, 3lo+2t+2lo<, 3fe, 2a, 3s<
She scored 101.70 (52.57+49.13)

This just does not compare with Gold's US Championship silver medal FS: 3z+3t, 2a+3t, 3lo, 2a, 3z, 3fe+2t+2t, 3s
Gracie scored 132.49 (71.14+61.35).
Gracie occasionally URs the 3t in combination in the SP, where she struggles most with nerves, but her jumps are so big that she doesn't get a string of URs in the FS the way Polina does.

Actually, from a BV perspective, Gracie has harder content (2 3Lz, 2 3T, 2 2A, 1 each 3S, 3F, 3Lo) than Edmunds (2 3F, 2 3T, 2 2A, 1 each 3Lz, 3Lo, 3S) assuming it's all rotated.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Polina will skate junior internationally (JGP/JW) but most likely will move up to senior at US Nationals. Lots of skaters have followed that path, especially those that haven't had much competition experience. BTW, Polina won Gardena as a Junior (158.45 50.69 107.76).

Yes--I said she's had ALMOST no international experience, since Gardena isn't exactly a major stop on the junior circuit. I don't understand the reasoning behind rushing herself onto the senior scene when she can develop more of a reputation as a junior skater. In the Olympic season, the competition at Nationals will be insanely stiff, and I don't see why she would subject herself to that sort of pressure (she almost definitely won't medal) when she should take the time to fix her jumps and possibly win another junior title.

All my humble opinion, as always.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Yes--I said she's had ALMOST no international experience, since Gardena isn't exactly a major stop on the junior circuit. I don't understand the reasoning behind rushing herself onto the senior scene when she can develop more of a reputation as a junior skater. In the Olympic season, the competition at Nationals will be insanely stiff, and I don't see why she would subject herself to that sort of pressure (she almost definitely won't medal) when she should take the time to fix her jumps and possibly win another junior title.

All my humble opinion, as always.

Not defending her junior title looks worse than a top 10, or even 12, finish at senior nationals, and she will likely be able to manage that, so why shouldn't she move up? In some ways it might make it easier for her, by making her senior debut in an Olympic year, she might be able to fly under the radar more and actually AVOID attracting excess recognition and hype. If she does well, people will notice and it will put her on the radar screen for the next quad, and if she doesn't, it's not like anyone will be paying that much attention to anyone that doesn't make the Olympic team anyways. Also isn't 4 years at the same level a little excessive, especially when even WITH all the URs, she managed to win in a deep field this past season? Sure she's young but she's always been young for the level she's competed at, the URs come and go, sometimes hardly being an issue, and even with URs her scores have been good. The move to seniors in the US makes sense to me.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
If Polina were only 12 or not-quite-13, it might make sense for her to stay junior nationally after winning the junior title. But she just turned 15, old enough for senior ISU championship events, so staying junior nationally makes no sense at all. Yes, she needs to work on bigger, fully rotated jumps, but she can do that in the JGP. It's going to take time for her to be fully competitive as a senior nationally, so the best preparation for that is competing at the US senior level, this season.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
^^ exactly how I see it too. And even if it's not realistic, there's nothing like being in contention for an Olympic birth this season to really motivate one to train hard and give it her all. If she competes as a junior, she can't be considered, if she competes as a senior, then she can and can use it as a motivator, even if it is basically a pipe dream.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
But she is not in contention...that is my point.

I get the motivation part of it. It's a bit like the lottery...it's firing a shot at the moon so to speak. May as well have that ticket or take that shot because even a one in a million chance is greater than zero, right? But it is all psychological.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Polina is not in contention for an Olympic slot---at least not in 2014. But she does need to start competing at the senior level now, so that she will be prepared to contend in 2018, when she will be 19.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
Polina is in contention IF by in contention it is meant she will make it TO Senior Nationals and likely won't be last. She's got some talent, but she's not consistent (or her jumps are borderline) which is not in her favor. Another name comes to mind for that inconsistency: Mirai Nagasu
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Polina will have a tough time cracking top 10 at US Nationals. I'm not sure how easy the transition will be, if she decides to make it at all, but I can tell you that her score at Junior Nationals this year would have placed her twelfth in seniors, just behind the snubbed Caroline Zhang.

I can also tell you that Polina's Gardena score would have put her in sixth place at the JGPF. With Radionova possibly headed for the GP next season, Polina could have an easier time, but international judges are known sticklers for clean, fully rotated triples. But hey--like R.D. said, it's better to have a one in a million chance than to have no chance.
 
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