State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

ForeverFish · Jun 20, 2013

R.D. said:
^ Of course, that is assuming that Wagner and Gold are shoo-ins for spots 1 and 2, which is no guarantee in itself either. Particularly for Gold, but if this year is any indication, Wagner is not invincible either.

Zawadzki and Gao are the other two in contention...I'd give Hicks and Nagasu slim, outside chances. Czisny will be the "Cohen 2010" of this cycle so to speak - plagued by recent injury and time off, she's a complete wildcard depending on her condition, but likely to crumble under pressure regardless.

I wouldn't assume that Wagner and Gold are locks for the first two spots, but I'd put their chances of making the Olympic team above 50% -- above 80% that one of them will be US champion. Wagner has the best artistry of the American ladies (excepting perhaps Czisny, whose jumps are notoriously inconsistent). Gold is by far the best technician. The judges know this, and I believe they'll be scored accordingly.

Cohen in 2010 wasn't in a completely deplorable state, as she still managed to place 4th at Nationals, though she missed making the team. Czisny's chance of getting the third spot is minuscule; if she doesn't show up in good form, she may not even crack the top ten domestically.

We will have to see what Nagasu looks like on the GP before assessing her chances at the Olympic team, but this past Nationals wasn't a great indicator of her ability.

R.D. · Jun 20, 2013

I agree with a 50% chance of Wagner OR Gold being on the team...however, I cannot have 80% confidence in one of them being champion when I have yet to see them in action this season (that is, too soon for me to tell).

As for Cohen, if you look at her entire competitive history, 4th at Nationals is quite a low, disappointing result. However, when you look at the context of the placement, suddenly it looks respectable since the other Olympian who tried (Hughes) wasn't even a factor, and it was Cohen's first competition in nearly 4 years, after facing injury and extended time off.

And as for Nagasu, I would point to her reasonably good NHK showing and write Nationals off as unfortunate timing for her to be sick. I think she would have performed better if she was not ill...probably not well enough to make the team but she could easily have edged Zawadzki out for bronze. Nagasu has always been a late season skater so even if she starts off bumpy, I won't write her off immediately.

kwanatic · Jun 20, 2013

R.D. said:
And as for Nagasu, I would point to her reasonably good NHK showing and write Nationals off as unfortunate timing for her to be sick. I think she would have performed better if she was not ill...probably not well enough to make the team but she could easily have edged Zawadzki out for bronze. Nagasu has always been a late season skater so even if she starts off bumpy, I won't write her off immediately.

ITA with this and that's what sucks for Mirai. She had been getting stronger all season long, improving her results with each competition and I do feel had she not been sick she would have had a much stronger FS at nationals. I don't think she'd have beat out Ashley or Gracie but she probably would have beat out Agnes and Courtney.

I'm always holding out hope for Mirai even though in the past she has frustrated the snot out of me. Last season was the first time she looked determined and ready to fight in a long time which is why I was heartbroken for her at nationals. I'm glad she has two GPs this year and I really hope she can produce some decent results but a lot of that will hinge on her ability to complete her jumps and avoid URs.

Here's a thought: according to The Skating Lesson's twitter updates it looks like Aruturnian may be relocating to the Toyota Sports Center to train with Adam Rippon, and they said Mirai had been training there as well. Mirai used to work with RA, didn't she? RA is known as a technical coach and being that Mirai is in desperate need of a technical coach, do you think it's possible she might start working with him? Not in a main coach capacity but at least working with him a few times a week on her jumps...

drivingmissdaisy · Jun 20, 2013

R.D. said:
I agree with a 50% chance of Wagner OR Gold being on the team.

So you think there's a 50% chance that neither Wagner nor Gold will make the team?

drivingmissdaisy · Jun 20, 2013

kwanatic said:
ITA with this and that's what sucks for Mirai. She had been getting stronger all season long, improving her results with each competition and I do feel had she not been sick she would have had a much stronger FS at nationals.

Yes, she was sick but I don't think it would have made a difference. The last three seasons she has had decent international results before underperforming at Nationals, so it wasn't just last year that she had built momentum into Nationals. The URs seem to show up more when she's nervous, and the high stakes at Nationals means more pressure.

R.D. · Jun 20, 2013

drivingmissdaisy said:
So you think there's a 50% chance that neither Wagner nor Gold will make the team?

Aha, not necessarily...You see, when their chances are assessed INDEPENDENTLY of each other I'm choosing to use 50%. Other skaters' chances will be assessed lower, accordingly. Like the odds of each making the team, so to speak.

drivingmissdaisy · Jun 20, 2013

R.D. said:
Aha, not necessarily...You see, when their chances are assessed INDEPENDENTLY of each other I'm choosing to use 50%. Other skaters' chances will be assessed lower, accordingly. Like the odds of each making the team, so to speak.

Ah ok. Not 50% chance of (Ashley_on_team OR Gracie_on_team) = True.

Personally, I'd have each of them higher, just because I think both have better odds of placing 1-3 than 4th or lower. I have a hard time envisioning 3 people placing ahead of either of them.

tulosai · Jun 20, 2013

Jammers said:
Mirai just doesn't rotate in the air quick enough to rotate her jumps. If you watch someone like Gracie who has no problem with underrotations you can see how quick she is in the air compared to someone like Mirai.

I agree her rotation isn't fast but I think a lot of people miss/underestimate how big a problem it is that she reaches for the ice with her blade. If she could stop that and let the landing 'just happen' I believe at least 75-80% of her UR jumps would go from being under rotated to just barely (but definitely) rotated.

Ruffles78 · Jun 20, 2013

What bugs me with Mirai is that she's perfectly capable of rotating her jumps cleanly. In the short program at Nationals, she rotated everything well including at 3t/3t that was done wonderfully. She rotated the 3t/3t at NHK as well. I think in the long program, she just loses some speed going into some of the jumps, especially towards the end of the program. She needs one of her coaches to chase her down the rink during her programs in practice. Using the same gumption into your jumps late in the program as you would with fresh legs is one of the hardest things for skaters. Her reaching with the toe pick for those landings is definitely part of the problem, and would be quite difficult to fix. Even if she fixed it in practice, it might come back in competition when she's nervous. Her long program at NHK was very well skated, btw. She has fewer rotation issues when she's in that mode.

chuckm · Jun 20, 2013

There have been rumors and suggestions (from coaches) that Mirai is not exactly a dedicated trainer. Insufficient training shows up as lack of stamina in the FS. If Mirai rotates jumps in the SP but URs many jumps in the FS, perhaps she is not doing enough runthroughs on a daily basis.

Looking at her 2012-2013 GP events:

CoC SP 3t+3t<, 3lo, 2a
CoC FS 3z<, 2a+3t<<, 3f<, 3f<+2t+2lo<, 3lo+2t, 2a, 3lo<<

NHK SP 3t+3t, 3lo, 2a
NHK FS 3z, 2a+3t, 3f, 3f+2t+2t<, 3lo<+2t<, 2a, 3lo<

Mirai did much better at NHK than at CoC. She had 3 more weeks to train, and she was able to complete a clean SP. But jumps in the second half of her FS got the URs, and that is costly, since second half jumps get more credit than those in the first half. But it does seem stamina plays a role with Mirai.

Ruffles78 · Jun 20, 2013

Yes, it must be stamina. It's really strange that she gets under rotation calls on the 3 loop, since it's one of her best jumps. I wish I could coach her. lol

drivingmissdaisy · Jun 20, 2013

Ruffles78 said:
Yes, it must be stamina. It's really strange that she gets under rotation calls on the 3 loop, since it's one of her best jumps. I wish I could coach her. lol

I wish she would pull the three turns before the jump out and focus more on getting a more secure take-off. She URs the 3R more often than not towards the end of the LP.

Ruffles78 · Jun 20, 2013

Yeah, maybe the 3 turns slow her down and/or make her take off position less precise when she's tired.

ForeverFish · Jun 21, 2013

drivingmissdaisy said:
Yes, she was sick but I don't think it would have made a difference. The last three seasons she has had decent international results before underperforming at Nationals, so it wasn't just last year that she had built momentum into Nationals. The URs seem to show up more when she's nervous, and the high stakes at Nationals means more pressure.

And Mirai hasn't competed at a latter-season event since 2011 4CC. For some strange reason, I seem to recall her going to Worlds more than just once ... :confused2:

Anyway, it'll be hard to say how this lack of major international exposure will affect her in the coming season, since many of the top skaters tend to peak around 4CC/Europeans and Worlds.

mskater93 · Jun 21, 2013

Ruffles78 said:
I wish I could coach her. lol

Even if you could, a skater can't be coached all the time they are on the ice and actually have to do some work on their own, otherwise it's "supervised babysitting" and really, when the time to compete comes, the skater has to be able to do it themselves. There have been multiple insinuations from previous coaches that she doesn't work as hard as she should outside of lessons. No coach has come out and said it directly, but it's been implied by more than just one coach (at least 3 former coaches have implied it at some point). The supposed reason for her skating so well in 2010 was that Lysacek was her training partner and he pushed her to do a LOT of run throughs through bugging her on shared sessions and "shaming" her into it.

silverlake22 · Jun 21, 2013

Does anyone else think Mirai has seemed slower across the ice these past few seasons compared to before? It's not like she's noticeably very slow like someone like Caroline or Alissa is, but I always thought of her as one of the faster skaters of the pack before, and now she seems like middle of the pack at best in terms of speed. I think that could be contributing to the UR issues, and if she has lost speed, I don't know what would have caused this, but my guess would maybe be some combination of lacking stamina, adjusting to more difficult choreography in her programs, and then just the slowness of the music she's skating too. I definitely notice her being "slow" in the FS more than SP, which makes me think the music could be playing a part, and also stamina, although I know this past season she was doing a lot more cardio and off-ice training than before, so you would think stamina wouldn't be an issue by now. Any other thoughts? I guess the other thing is that maybe she's not actually slower, but because her programs have been kind of slow and boring it just seems that way..

kwanatic · Jun 21, 2013

^^No, she's definitely slowed down in the last few seasons. When you compare her programs from 2010 and 2011 to now, she's slower. She usually has good speed starting out but then slows down during the program. I don't know if it's nerves or stamina...but she is definitely capable of skating faster than she does. I also think her programs play into it as well. That's why I say something that's a little more up-tempo would be good for the FS and help motivate her to keep her energy up.

FlattFan · Jun 21, 2013

kwanatic said:
She usually has good speed starting out but then slows down during the program.

I've seen Mirai live and I've reported this as well. She slowed down after the first mistake. Then, as mistakes piled up, she slowed down even more.
At the beginning of her program, I thought she was one of the fastest girls out there. At the end of her program, she was below the middle of the pack.

Another phenomenon is all girls skate really fast during the warm up. But none of them bring that speed into their program.

kwanatic · Jun 21, 2013

FlattFan said:
I've seen Mirai live and I've reported this as well. She slowed down after the first mistake. Then, as mistakes piled up, she slowed down even more.
At the beginning of her program, I thought she was one of the fastest girls out there. At the end of her program, she was below the middle of the pack.

Another phenomenon is all girls skate really fast during the warm up. But none of them bring that speed into their program.

In practice there is no pressure so it's easy to just skate freely w/o worry. But when the pressure is on the nerves kick in and skaters get tentative and slow down. That's why you have to respect people like Yu-Na who just go balls-to-the-wall when it comes to jumping. No hesitation, no backing down, full speed ahead straight into the jump. That's the kind of confidence that's needed to be a champion and it's a confidence so few skaters have.

Ashley had that confidence in spades for the first half of last season but after she started making mistakes the doubts crept in and she began skating cautiously again. That attack she had went bye-bye and that sucks. I hope she can regain that confidence again...she's going to need it.

mskater93 · Jun 21, 2013

I think Wagner's issue was more that the first major mistake equalled injury for her and then she had to play catch up preparedness-wise after.

State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

ForeverFish

R.D.

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!

drivingmissdaisy

drivingmissdaisy

R.D.

drivingmissdaisy

tulosai

Ruffles78

chuckm

Ruffles78

drivingmissdaisy

Ruffles78

ForeverFish

mskater93

silverlake22

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!

FlattFan

Match Penalty

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!

mskater93

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