State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season
- Thread starter Reginald
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- Aug 21, 2012
I saw a video analysis of Yuna's 3-3 in which Yuna herself said that if she didn't skate fast, she wouldn't be able to get the necessary height on her jumps. Carolina is another lady who can maintain her speed across the ice. Bringing this back to the Americans, Gracie is also faster than average -- I remember the Eurosport commentators enthusing that she could land a Rippon Lutz at 90 mph in practice -- but her nerves this season caused some obvious problems in competition.
Perhaps Mirai can't get enough height in her jumps in part because she slows down. I feel that the other reason is her radically changed body -- she's filled out a LOT since 2010 and is no longer as aerodynamic as her small, slender 16-year-old self.
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- May 19, 2011
Mirai's jumps get much better air and distance when she attacks them with speed. Look at the coverage on her 3-3 at nationals. It was really good!
More speed equals more height and distance. I think that's the case for everyone...which then makes me wonder why all skaters don't try to skate faster...
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- Jun 21, 2003
Yes. Plus, I believe that her plan was to work the triple-triple into her program by the end of the season. but the injuries put the kibosh on that strategy.
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- Feb 17, 2010
This makes a lot of sense, because skaters don't want to fall so they skate slower into the jumps and end up underrotating. Skaters are human and it is understandable to be cautious, but it is the wrong mindset. URs are virtually as bad as falling.
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- Feb 17, 2010
International panels actually give her very strong marks. I'm sure they recall her fine Olympics and Worlds SP, and she has won medals in international events every year since.
What I felt bad about was that her final placement at nationals this year was as bad as last year, but last year she really bombed the long program and this year she didn't seem to skate nearly as bad.
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- Aug 21, 2012
This year, it was the UR's that did her in. They're hard to detect on your average TV/computer screen, which probably made her low marks confusing to the casual viewer, but according to the protocols, she underrotated something like 4 or 5 jumps in her FS.
I know that Mirai has done very, very well in the past. My point was that she hasn't competed against the top ladies (Carolina, Mao, Yuna, Ashley) all in the same place at the same time in a few years -- therefore, she hasn't much of a notion of how well she truly stacks up now. On the GP, most of the ladies aren't in the best shape they'll be all season. For Mirai, however, the opposite has seemed true this quad -- she skates her best in the fall and then plateaus around Nationals time. She's probably grown used to her competitive season ending after Nationals, so if she qualifies for the Olympics, her struggle will be to keep the momentum going.
2010 was Mirai's year, but that was an entire Olympic cycle ago, and she hasn't shown anything like that since. I'm sure the judges will remember those performances -- however, I wouldn't expect the panel to give them the same weight that they'd give Yuna, Mao, and Carolina's World/European/4CC titles, or Ashley's stellar GP last season.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
I don't think they do, as they shouldn't. But she does get significantly higher PCS from international judges than other Americans ladies aside from Ashley and Gracie. National panels put her PCS on par with the second tier skaters who aren't even competitive for World team spots.
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- Aug 21, 2012
Mirai IS one of the best in the US right now, Nationals results or no. She still has excellent presentation, but she's a lot slower than a lot of the other skaters, which probably accounts for her low PCS. She can be competitive for a World/Olympic team spot IF and only if she fixes her UR's -- national judges have shown that they won't hesitate to penalize her (hard) for technical errors, and PCS can't save her if her jumps aren't clean. For comparison, Christina and Agnes receive much lower PCS (rightfully), but they can usually land clean triples.
Also, it's worth nothing that the "second-tier skaters" (I'm assuming you mean 6th and below at Nationals) don't compete internationally as seniors, and their international PCS are lower as a result of inexperience.
I think people know that I have some hopes for Gracie (but, I trust, in a "supportive" way while not contributing to the pressure of unrealistic expectations; that is, I'm giving her the next 5 years or so to hit her peak, rather than expecting it right away
).I say that so that the following critique does not trigger another round of troll wars: Gracie has the physical talent to be a great jumper, that much, I believe, is obvious. If there is an aspect of jumping that, IMO, would make a real difference for her, it is to control over-eagerness, the temptation to "make it happen".
Younger and less experienced athletes are especially prone to this, from both my observational as well as personal experience. Often, when Gracie executes her jumps, I get the distinct sense that she's busting a gut to get the last bit of height and distance, and to rotate just that little bit faster, and get it over with just that little bit quicker. My question is: why? As said, Gracie has the physical tools to achieve the right amount of speed, height and width to give her plenty of time to rotate and land at leisure, without the need to look tense and strained and rushed and slightly out of control.
When I have tried to relate these impressions to my own experiences, this adrenaline-fuelled over-eagerness seems very much like what is known as "pressing" among the swingers of the golf club or the baseball bat, particularly when one wants to increase swing speed and hence power. In trying too hard (pressing), the surges of power come at the wrong time and in the wrong places, which then also mess up the timing and mechanical sequence of the swing positions, which can then lead to mistakes.
More often than not, it is the young, athletic, and powerful who are prone to this, that is to say, exactly those athletes whose natural power would be sufficient to allow them to get the job done without straining the performance envelope. This is because less physically gifted athletes know with a greater sense of realism and precision when they have reached their limits, whereas more gifted ones are much more prone to be tempted by the illusion that if they only go just a little bit faster, a tiny bit stronger, they can reap the glory without losing control. This, of course, is when disaster often strikes. Gracie, in sum, is often guilty of trying to "muscle" jumps when she doesn't really need to. And particularly in the SP, when she is all amped up without having bled off the pre-competition jitters.
Another way to put it is this: a race-car driver at the highest levels is always keenly aware of having to hew to a very fine knife-edge of optimized performance; if you lack the confidence to drive right up against that edge, everyone will blow by you; on the other hand, if you go just a little bit over that edge, you'll find yourself in a spectacular wreck.
Both Yuna and Gracie are physically gifted jumpers. The key difference remaining, in my view, is that Yuna is now at a stage where she knows exactly where the edge of optimized performance is. Gracie is still learning, through trial and error, its overall contours. This is why Yuna's jumps look fast and powerful but also effortless, serene, almost pre-ordained.
No question that Gracie has the speed and power, but she still makes me just a bit nervous every time she goes up in the air, with the sense that those twins triumph and disaster are both lurking right around the corner, and it is literally touch and go as far as which will reach her first.
If Gracie can learn this final lesson from Yuna, I see no fundamental, insuperable reason why she should not be able to go from strength to strength thereafter (although I do agree to some extent with kwanatic's comments on Gracie's PCS characteristics this past season, and her need to improve there
).A quick comment on Mirai: this is just a minor, idle point, but it's probably not the changes in her aerodynamic characteristics that pose the problem (aerodynamics don't usually come into play until one reaches speeds where flight-related phenomena such as lift and drag are introduced, unless, of course, one is skating in the middle of a tornado
), but rather the more basic issues of increased inertia and a shifted center of gravity. (Sorry, was that just way too geeky? But I take comfort in the fact that I'm still far behind the rocket-scientist Mathman as far as geekiness goes).
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- Dec 11, 2011
It amuses me that, as a (sometimes even I think rabid) Czisny defender, my own prediction is the opposite. I tend to think that AC will get especially (undeserved) harsh treatment from the judges next season. Is anyone on GS a psychology Ph.D.? Please give us an explanation that will make sense of this!
- Joined
- Dec 11, 2011
THIS is exactly the type of macro-explanation that fits the data. Don't hate to say it, LeCygne! I strongly doubt there is any conscious (I am going to say, to avoid controversy) "cultural" bias on the part of the USFSA or American judges. But, heck. They sure like a pretty, petite white girl with blonde hair (the last criterion is flexible if the blonde white alternative is too muscular, masculine, or low-class). Your thought is exactly on the right track. Now to discuss it with the "this is the best of possible worlds" crowd.
Not unreasonable to think so. Flatt was given the benefit of the doubt several times at Nationals...then after the 2011 debacle, what happened next year at Nats?
Ultimately, I suppose it'll depend on how everyone else does. I guess I just had it stuck in my head that USFS has this "love affair" (lack of a better term) with her and even after 2012 worlds, continued to offer her a WTT spot and grant her GP wishes...but that is my own bias coming out (stemming from the frustration I felt at the time).
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2012
A "cultural bias" may or may not exist in the minds of the USFSA and its partners, but as of now, the very objective situation remains that the best in the US right now -- Ashley and Gracie -- happen to be pretty blonde white girls (though not petite). This status isn't a result of their American-ness, but of the fact that their domestic and international results are currently the strongest of the American ladies. Throw Agnes and Courtney into the mix, and it's evident that the judges don't necessarily favor them on an ethnic basis, but because both are very powerful jumpers. When all is considered, I can see why those four were the highest finishers at 2013 Nationals, and why skaters like Christina (decent in all areas of her skating, but show-stopping in none) and Caroline (suffers downgrades and is extremely slow across the ice) were not on the podium. If Michelle could somehow return to competitive figure skating at her top form, I have no doubt that the federation would welcome her back with open arms, and that she would take her rightful spot ahead of Ashley and Gracie in the pecking order.
As for Rachael and Alissa, I agree that both have received their fair share of kindness from the USFSA during their careers. However, this bias is somewhat understandable in that Rachael was a 2010 Olympian and the US' most consistent competitor since Michelle, while Alissa led the US ladies for a brief span in 2011 when she won the US title on and continued to place fifth at Worlds in a field that included Miki Ando, Yuna Kim, and Carolina Kostner. It may be unfair that these results are considered during the judging process, but honestly, who is the federation more likely to push -- a skater who has performed well at Worlds and/or the Olympics, or someone who hasn't competed in any high-profile international events?
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2012
Unfortunately, I don't know, although no one can deny that it happens on a regular basis. That's the million-dollar-question for the USFSA and its judges.
Let's face it the USFSA had to push someone like Flatt because there was no one else at the time to push. I'm sure they knew that Alissa or Mirai were more talented and could actually get on the podium at major international events but they were and are headcases. Ashley and Gracie are the best 1-2 punch the US has had since Michelle and Sasha though not nearly as decorated on the international stage.
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2012
Le Cygne, R.D., Pepe Nero:
If any of you -- or anyone else -- believes in your own mind that Gao, Nagasu, and Zhang are not as All-American as Wagner, Gold, Zawadzki, etc., then SHAME ON YOU!!!
Hi, FF. Following your train of thought, it seems to me that Nagasu is as "deserving" (my word, not yours) as Flatt and Czisny of a "fair share of kindness" from USFSA. Nagasu obviously fits your description of "a skater who has performed well at Worlds and/or the Olympics" -- placing well above Flatt in Vancouver, for example.
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2009
I wonder if Mirai would ever spend some time working with Christry Krall using Dartfish or visit some of jump specialist to figure out what's causing her to under-rotate the jumps so much of the time. It could be something relatively easy to fix but if she's not aware of what's at the root of the issue then it would explain why the URs continue to plague her.
The URs could also be contributed to her change in body type, though it is important to point out that she still can do the triple jumps now that she's sturdier and broader than before and they are sometimes fully rotated, and she used to have issues with the URs even when she was really tiny, but maybe figuring out what her ideal weight is could help her be able to land the jumps fully rotated more of the time than she could at a higher weight. To me she still looks in shape and like I said, she still can do nice triples, so losing weight is certainly not necessary, but with an evaluation of her height, bone density, frame size, and body fat percentage, an ideal weight could probably be reasonably calculated and if that was lower than her current weight, perhaps getting to that point could have a positive impact on her jumps. She looked tiny in Vancouver and she was 16, but her stats then were height 5'3.5" and weight 110 lb so that's a BMI of 19.2 which is actually in the healthy range for an adult woman (albeit the low end, anything above 18.5 is considered healthy). Granted, doctors sometimes say it's better to be at least 20, especially if you're muscular, so that equates to a weight of 115 lb at that height, which could well be what Mirai is now but like I said I'm just throwing stuff out that might help and I'm not even sure if this would, it just seems like unless you're an innately powerful and athletic skater like Agnes, Ashley, Gracie, Kaetlyn, etc. that most of the top skaters at this point are quite thin.
The URs could also be contributed to her change in body type, though it is important to point out that she still can do the triple jumps now that she's sturdier and broader than before and they are sometimes fully rotated, and she used to have issues with the URs even when she was really tiny, but maybe figuring out what her ideal weight is could help her be able to land the jumps fully rotated more of the time than she could at a higher weight. To me she still looks in shape and like I said, she still can do nice triples, so losing weight is certainly not necessary, but with an evaluation of her height, bone density, frame size, and body fat percentage, an ideal weight could probably be reasonably calculated and if that was lower than her current weight, perhaps getting to that point could have a positive impact on her jumps. She looked tiny in Vancouver and she was 16, but her stats then were height 5'3.5" and weight 110 lb so that's a BMI of 19.2 which is actually in the healthy range for an adult woman (albeit the low end, anything above 18.5 is considered healthy). Granted, doctors sometimes say it's better to be at least 20, especially if you're muscular, so that equates to a weight of 115 lb at that height, which could well be what Mirai is now but like I said I'm just throwing stuff out that might help and I'm not even sure if this would, it just seems like unless you're an innately powerful and athletic skater like Agnes, Ashley, Gracie, Kaetlyn, etc. that most of the top skaters at this point are quite thin.
OK, I'll repeat.
Does the USFS absolutely, positively HAVE to push someone? Would they suddenly cease to exist if they chose not to pre-anoint anyone and just let the chips fall?
Le Cygne, R.D., Pepe Nero:
If any of you -- or anyone else -- believes in your own mind that Gao, Nagasu, and Zhang are not as All-American as Wagner, Gold, Zawadzki, etc., then SHAME ON YOU!!!
What I PERSONALLY think and what I believe American society AS A COLLECTIVE UNIT thinks are different.
I mean, let's think about it. Why does the media even bother to use the term "All-American" in the first place? When examined a little closer, one realizes the media is very selective in their use of the term "All-American". Personally, I despise such a title. But it's a term that one cannot get away from these days.
