State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

you can't read someone just from a blog post.

She'll be fine. As long as she has her priorities straight, fine by me. I could care less about the costume, but whatever - it seems to be such a big deal to the fans and the skate community at large.

MM nailed it - LAND THE JUMPS. That's it.

Well Gracie sounds so happy. I want to see the Cottage they are living in. I hope everything works out well.
I wonder if Mirai is skating part- time with frank.

Hopefully now that she's settled she can relax a bit and skate like she knows she can. She should not be screwing up those jumps she's too good of a jumper. David Lease of TSL made a good point. Really wanting something bad and having grit can overcome the nerves. Gracie certainly wants it that's not the problem. Now it's just becoming a tougher competitor.

This is going to be a tough year for Gracie but as long as she had her head on straight she should be okay. A lot of skaters fall prey to the sophomore slump so we'll have to see if she can avoid it. She's got even more pressure to deal with this year. Judging by what we've seen so far it's not good but we'll have to see how she looks at SC.

But I do agree that as long as she lands the jumps she'll be fine. That's been her biggest problem lately. If you lack artistry/interpretation/musical connection/etc. but can still bust out huge jumps, the judges will still reward you. However, without all of the artistry stuff and without the jumps, Gracie only has her SS to fall back on and it won't be enough this year especially with a number of hungry skaters coming up behind her...she has to land those jumps.

flying camel said:

I wonder if Mirai is skating part- time with frank.

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No, her current coaching team is there.

With her jumping ability the sky is the limit for Gracie. My advice to her would be stay focused, land the jumps and most importantly enjoy the Olympic season. It might not all come together this year, but have fun! (And stop worrying about the dresses).

It should be exciting for the Senior's Midwestern and Pacific Sectionals.

Sectionals is the most exciting round of qualifying for worlds/Olympics for the same reason the 2nd round is the most exciting time of March Madness.

You get to see skaters that have already won/or are really good compete against each other and one of them has to lose.
But you still have a lot of skating involved (unlike Nationals).

It's like have hundreds of heavyweight match ups on a particular weekend.


Top Ladies

Midwestern
Barbie Long
Mariah Bell
Carly Gold
Morgan Bell
Ashley Cain
Hannah Miller
Alissa Czisny

Pacific Coast
Leah Keiser
Rachael Flatt
Vanessa Lam
Angela Wang
Caroline Zhang

Only 4 of these skaters can make it through for each sectional. Thoughts?

Rachael will have her hands full trying to get out of Sectionals. She's lucky that Zhang has fallen so far down so that may save her. I see Wang, Lam and perhaps even Keiser beating her. Some very good skaters might get left out going to Nationals from the Midwestern Sectionals.

The Reginator said:

It should be exciting for the Senior's Midwestern and Pacific Sectionals.

Sectionals is the most exciting round of qualifying for worlds/Olympics for the same reason the 2nd round is the most exciting time of March Madness.

You get to see skaters that have already won/or are really good compete against each other and one of them has to lose.
But you still have a lot of skating involved (unlike Nationals).

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Welcome to the forum! These will indeed be nailbiters.

I am sure Rachael will make it to nationals. She had a bad short at Nice, yes, but landed six triples in the long, including a lutz.

I don't know if Alissa will make it.....

My fingers are crossed for Czisny and Gold, but it'll be tough for both of them. If Czisny can land just a few triples, she should get the PCS to get her through (a 3-triple LP got her the first of her national titles, IIRC).

At this point, it seems Rachael is in much better shape than Caroline.

Better for Rachael to get the tough SP out there now instead of at Sectionals. Glad to see she was able to recover (like the veteran competitor that she is) in the FS

ghislaine said:

I am sure Rachael will make it to nationals. She had a bad short at Nice, yes, but landed six triples in the long, including a lutz.

I don't know if Alissa will make it.....

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I have checked several places and they all say she is using Firebird again as her lp this season, but that was not what she skated at Nice. Has she changed her mind?

ghislaine said:

I am sure Rachael will make it to nationals. She had a bad short at Nice, yes, but landed six triples in the long, including a lutz.

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I agree, she should be a shoo-in for Nationals. I must admit that it made me a little sad to see her get a 3.75 from a judge on TR in Nice. She was one of the best skaters in the world not too long ago.

drivingmissdaisy said:

I agree, she should be a shoo-in for Nationals. I must admit that it made me a little sad to see her get a 3.75 from a judge on TR in Nice. She was one of the best skaters in the world not too long ago.

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That was 3 years ago. Rachael never had the greatest skating skills in her prime and now she's even slower and obviously not in top shape. She will be lucky to make the top 3 in Sectionals.

I got the feeling that the lp at Nice was not the lp Rachael has planned for the season, at best it was just the bones of the program, probably to just get the required score.

UPDATED to include Agnes' COC scores.


So doing a similar exercise I did for the men. Including primarily JGP/GP scores since some of the contenders are in the junior ranks.
Basically I take the top 3 and give point values of 15,10, 5. Everything else gets zero points. Polina Edmunds has the unique distinction of showing up in 2 of the top 3 spots for one category, I will award her the average of the two rankings (will do the same for others in a similar situation).
The higher the score, the better the current condition of that skater.

So based on my calculations:

Ashley: 80
Gracie: 70
Polina: 20
Christina: 15
Courtney: 10
Samantha: 10
Angela: 5

Basically, Ashley and Gracie look good for No. 1 and No. 2. Polina is No. 3 due to her high FS TES, however Christina isn't far behind. Courtney, Samantha and Angela look to be contenders.

***
SEE DETAILED STATS BELOW:
Total score
Ashley Wagner: 193.81 (SA)
Gracie Gold: 185.65 (SC)
Christina Gao: 173.69 (SC)
-----------
Polina Edmunds: 171.21 (JGP Mexico)*
Samantha Cesario: 167.98 (SA)
Polina Edmunds: 165.77 (JGP Belarus)*
Courtney Hicks: 162.00 (SC)
Angela Wang: 155.87 (JGP Czech Skate)*
Mariah Bell: 153.17 (JGP Mexico)*
Angela Wang: 152.36 (JGP Baltic Cup)*
Barbie Long: 148.19 (JGP Slovakia)*
Agnes Zawadzki: 147.64 (COC)
Yasmin Siraj: 142.32 (JGP Latvia)*
Hannah Miller: 128.20 (JGP Estonia)*
Mariah Bell: 128.11 (JGP Baltic Cup)*
Barbie Long: 124.16 (JGP Belarus)*
Caroline Zhang: 110.12 (SA)
*Junior events have fewer elements, hence scores tend to be lower

Short Program
Gracie Gold: 69.45
Ashley Wagner: 69.26
Christina Gao: 62.82
------------
Angela Wang: 61.41
Angela Wang: 58.00
Polina Edmunds: 57.78
Agnes Zawadzki: 53.76
Samantha Cesario: 53.51
Polina Edmunds: 52.49
Yasmin Siraj: 51.70
Courtney Hicks: 50.71
Mariah Bell: 49.91
Caroline Zhang: 45.76
Barbie Long: 47.56
Barbie Long: 45.71
Mariah Bell: 43.84
Hannah Miller: 39.17

Short Program TES
Gracie Gold: 38.53
Ashley Wagner: 36.21
Angela Wang: 35.89
-------------
Angela Wang: 35.02
Christina Gao: 33.96
Polina Edmunds: 33.35
Polina Edmunds: 29.12
Yasmin Siraj: 28.90
Agnes Zawadzki: 28.89
Samantha Cesario: 27.54
Courtney Hicks: 26.67
Mariah Bell: 26.55
Barbie Long: 25.27
Barbie Long: 25.05
Caroline Zhang: 21.04
Mariah Bell: 21.01
Hannah Miller: 16.86

Short Program PCS
Ashley Wagner: 33.05
Gracie Gold: 30.92
Christina Gao: 28.86
-------------
Angela Wang: 25.98
Angela Wang: 25.52
Samantha Cesario: 25.97
Agnes Zawadzki: 25.84
Caroline Zhang: 24.72
Polina Edmunds: 24.43
Courtney Hicks 24.03
Polina Edmunds: 23.37
Mariah Bell: 23.36
Mariah Bell: 22.83
Yasmin Siraj: 22.80
Hannah Miller: 22.31
Barbie Long: 22.29
Barbie Long: 20.66

Free Skate
Ashley Wagner: 124.55
Gracie Gold: 117.20
Samantha Cesario: 114.47
-------------
Polina Edmunds: 113.43
Polina Edmunds: 113.28
Courtney Hicks: 111.30
Christina Gao: 110.87
Mariah Bell: 103.26
Barbie Long: 100.63
Angela Wang: 94.46
Angela Wang: 94.36
Agnes Zawadzki: 93.91
Yasmin Siraj: 90.62
Hannah Miller: 89.03
Mariah Bell: 84.27
Barbie Long: 78.45
Caroline Zhang: 65.36

Free Skate TES
Polina Edmunds: 62.37
Courtney Hicks: 62.31
Polina Edmunds: 61.82
------------
Ashley Wagner: 58.54
Samantha Cesario: 56.98
Gracie Gold: 56.09
Christina Gao: 53.95
Barbie Long: 53.54
Mariah Bell: 52.95
Angela Wang: 49.25
Angela Wang: 46.59
Yasmin Siraj: 46.39
Agnes Zawadzki: 43.26
Hannah Miller 41.26
Barbie Long: 40.64
Mariah Bell: 40.44
Caroline Zhang: 24.27

Free Skate PCS
Ashley Wagner: 66.01
Gracie Gold: 62.11
Samantha Cesario: 58.90
-------------
Christina Gao: 56.92
Agnes Zawadzki: 51.65
Polina Edmunds: 51.61
Polina Edmunds: 50.91
Mariah Bell: 50.31
Courtney Hicks: 49.99
Angela Wang: 48.87
Angela Wang: 48.11
Barbie Long: 48.09
Hannah Miller 47.77
Yasmin Siraj: 44.23
Mariah Bell: 43.83
Caroline Zhang: 41.09
Barbie Long: 40.81

I think if she skates well, Courtney could get PCS in the mid-20s and low 50s, which would bump her scores up. Skating early at SC in both programs and the mistakes she had held her scores back considerably. There's no reason that, if clean, Courtney's PCS should be more than a few points behind Gracie.

Grand Prix final (including JUNIOR Grand Prix) will be the last major competitive outing for some of these ladies before Nationals. And for the juniors, many of their performances have been a bit "off the radar" - what with September being "oh so long ago" (ha!). A strong performance at Junior GPF could really generate some buzz and confidence. Recall on the men's side what a stellar performance and strong skate did for Ricky Dornbush's confidence and performance level at Nationals a month later back in 2011.

Courtney Hicks is redoing her SP.

http://instagram.com/p/gUDQ9rl9ue/

Anyone recognize the music? (Although it's not clear to me whether it's HER music...though it looks like she's skating to it).