Very early top 10 predictions per discipline for Sochi | Page 3 | Golden Skate

Very early top 10 predictions per discipline for Sochi

Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
pangtongfan said:
I must say I think the predictions for Chan's chances are extremely generous at this point. I predict there will be some backlash in his scores from the huge uproar over Worlds, and he is already past his prime and declining massively technically.

The mens discipline is definitly the hardest to predict. I don't think Chan will win in Sochi, but I can see why people would settle for him (for now, at least) - he gets the job done. It might not be pretty, but the points are there. And no other man has really stepped it up to the point where he would be a clear pick - although I think Fernandez and Hanyu clearly showed the potential to beat Patrick. Both of them aren't consistent, but they're still better than Chan in that regard.
For the backlash regarding his scores - the last season showed us pretty clearly that he already got some. Back in 2012 a perfect Takahashi scored 85+ in PCS compared to Chans 90+. Now this year Ten got 87+, just about two points below Chan. I don't think there's any doubt that 2012 Takahashi is better than 2013 Ten in every single PCS category, but Ten was still scored closer to Chan this year. The jugdes were clearly ready to give the title to someone else - saying, in 2013 with the exact same performances, I think Takahashi might have won (the LP definitly, at least). Adding the fact that the Olympics are a place much worse for scandals than WCs, I'd imagine Chan will get hampered for his mistakes pretty badly (and I can't really see him going clean). It's really just up to Fernandez and Hanyu to take the chance.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
I also don't think it's fair to say he's past his prime, when you could say the same for Takahashi/Plushenko/Joubert, etc. If anyone is past his prime, it's Takahashi...

And when exactly was Takahashis prime? The poor man was hit hard with an injury that was thought to be career ending at first. I don't think he ever really reached something like a peak - he always had his ups and downs. After the 2011 WC, people said Takahashi was done and that he needed to retire already. Then he came back in 2012 to nearly become world champ again (and no matter if you think Chan deserved his title or not, Takahashis 2012 performances were worthy of a gold medal, generally speaking). This last season wasn't his best, but I'm suprised so many people are pretty much writing him off. He came back two times already, he can manage a 3rd one (and he still won the GPF this season...). He's still a medal favorite and an OGM contender for me - moreso than Ten, for example.

And for Chan declining: 2011 Chan >> 2012 Chan >> 2013 Chan. That's not exactly an upward trajectory... and then factor in that he doesn't have a technical coach anymore.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Men:
1) Plushenko
2) Chan
3) Hanyu

Plushenko is the only top man I can envision skating clean under Olympic pressure. No one can fall and beat Plushenko on home ice, because the judges will adjust PCS to produce the outcome they want (in other words, they will be careful not to produce a controversial outcome, particularly one that negatively impacts a Russian skater). I'd love to see Hanyu win, but his difficult jumps entrances may be hard to do under such great pressure.

Women:
1) Asada
2) Kim
3) Sotnikova

Kim can't be perfect all the time, but she seems to peak at the important moments. This prediction is more hopeful than what I think, because Yuna gets so much GOE for her jumps that she can make a few bobbles and finish ahead. But they are both worthy of an OGM and Yuna already has one. Carolina hasn't convinced me that she can skate well under Olympic pressure so I think it will be difficult for her because a few of the younger skaters like Adelina and Gracie are closing the PCS gap a bit.
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
The mens discipline is definitly the hardest to predict. I don't think Chan will win in Sochi, but I can see why people would settle for him (for now, at least) - he gets the job done. It might not be pretty, but the points are there. And no other man has really stepped it up to the point where he would be a clear pick - although I think Fernandez and Hanyu clearly showed the potential to beat Patrick. Both of them aren't consistent, but they're still better than Chan in that regard.

They didn't seem type of inconsistent skater to me.
And in 2012-2013 season, Not only them, Even there were many skaters who had better consistency than chan
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
This prediction is more hopeful than what I think, because Yuna gets so much GOE for her jumps that she can make a few bobbles and finish ahead.
the reason that kim have been won Mao is that mao almost, always makes more mistakes than kim. When kim have more mistakes than her, kim couldn't beat her.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
And when exactly was Takahashis prime? The poor man was hit hard with an injury that was thought to be career ending at first. I don't think he ever really reached something like a peak - he always had his ups and downs. After the 2011 WC, people said Takahashi was done and that he needed to retire already. Then he came back in 2012 to nearly become world champ again (and no matter if you think Chan deserved his title or not, Takahashis 2012 performances were worthy of a gold medal, generally speaking). This last season wasn't his best, but I'm suprised so many people are pretty much writing him off. He came back two times already, he can manage a 3rd one (and he still won the GPF this season...). He's still a medal favorite and an OGM contender for me - moreso than Ten, for example.

I think the GPF this season was well-earned, especially considering a tough field, but Takahashi's quad has been rather inconsistent (when he's off, he usually gets nailed for < and <<). You can tell from his jumping technique that he's not entering his jumps with the same spring and snap, which results in under-rotations, particularly on his quad. I'd say 2008-2010 were his prime years, but now his technique is waning a bit. He'll still pull in good results, but when he's off, he's usually off the podium. Artistically though he's certainly at his peak and hopefully continues to be.

And for Chan declining: 2011 Chan >> 2012 Chan >> 2013 Chan. That's not exactly an upward trajectory... and then factor in that he doesn't have a technical coach anymore.

If you look at performances at the World Championships, then that is indeed a downward trajectory performance wise (even though this year's score was higher than last year, but I digress). But it's hard to say he "peaked" in 2011 when he won the World title, with the best performance ever skated under the system until that point (and best FS todate) -- not really anywhere to go but down. And it's not like he hasn't had good performances since. Check out his scores for the past 3 seasons:

2013 scores: 267.48 (Worlds), 258.66 (GPF), 262.35 (Rostelcom), 243.43 (Skate Canada)
Average score: 257.98

2012 scores: 266.11 (Worlds), 273.94 (4CC), 260.30 (GPF), 240.60 (TEB), 253.74 (SC)
Average score: 260.23

2011 scores: 280.98 (Worlds), 259.75 (GPF), 228.21 (CoR), 239.52 (SC)
Average score: 252.12 (obviously the spread is much greater, so it's hard to call this his "peak" season, just because he gave his best performance ever at Worlds)

So, while his performances have been technically poorer, with his actual program content improving from season to season he's still maintained an average of above 250 points. And while his score at 2011 Worlds was the best, his overall scores in the 2012-2013 season were better than 2010-2011. Add to the fact that he was still able to produce a 177 points FS at Rostelcom (and with a few doubled jumps at that) and got a world record SP at Worlds 2013 (which still would have been a 95+ point skate no matter how much people cry he was inflated) it's hard to say he's on the decline. And three World titles is hardly on the decline either (or 1 World title and 4 top-2 finishes if you're going to question 2012 and 2013).

Jump consistency wise, 2012-2013 was a poorer season for him, but points-wise he hasn't really declined a whole lot, and results-wise he's still winning or at least placing top 3, which IMO isn't on the decline and still bodes well for a solid Sochi placement, if not a win. Not to mention other skaters have had worse declines (Arakawa) and less success (Urmanov, Kulik, Hughes) prior to the Olympics and still won. Chan is still the "logical" choice (hence why most have picked him), but given his technical issues recently and a surging Fernandez and Hanyu (if the former gets a good SP or the latter gets a good LP, Chan might be in trouble) I think he can certainly be upset. If he wasn't landing his quads consistently I could argue he's on the decline, but he's one of the most consistent quad jumpers in the field, and really needs to just maintain focus on his easier elements.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
They didn't seem type of inconsistent skater to me.
And in 2012-2013 season, Not only them, Even there were many skaters who had better consistency than chan

I'm curious as to who you think are the "many" skaters who had better consistency than Chan in the 2012-2013 season?
 

evangeline

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
I think the GPF this season was well-earned, especially considering a tough field, but Takahashi's quad has been rather inconsistent (when he's off, he usually gets nailed for < and <<). You can tell from his jumping technique that he's not entering his jumps with the same spring and snap, which results in under-rotations, particularly on his quad. I'd say 2008-2010 were his prime years, but now his technique is waning a bit. He'll still pull in good results, but when he's off, he's usually off the podium. Artistically though he's certainly at his peak and hopefully continues to be.

If you're going by jumps, it's strange that you say 2008-2010 are Takahashi's "prime years," given the fact that:

a) Takahashi did not compete at all during the 2008-2009 season because of injury
b) Takahashi literally did not successfully land a single ratified quad jump during the entire 2009-2010 season

Takahashi's always been an up-and-down skater. Your description of him now ("he'll still pull in good results, but when he's off, he's usually off the podium") has basically applied to him for most of his career, including before his injury. I think Li'Kitsu is correct--Takahashi never really had a discernible peak per se. In terms of jumping, maybe you can call his 2008 4CC performance a peak, but he ended up skating poorly and finished off the podium at 2008 Worlds right after. Similar to how he skated very well at this year's Nationals, but ended up skating poorly at 4CC and Worlds.
 

evangeline

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Since I got almost all my Vancouver predictions horrendously wrong in 2009, it'll be amusing to see how bad my predictions are again:

MEN:
1) Hanyu
2) Chan
3) Fernandez
4) Takahashi
5) Amodio

LADIES:
1) Kim
2) Kostner
3) Asada
4) Wagner
5) Gold

PAIRS:
1) Volosozhar/Trankov
2) Savchenko/Szolkowy
3) Duhamel/Radford
4) Pang/Tong
5) Kavaguti/Smirnov

ICE DANCE:
1) Davis/White
2) Virtue/Moir
3) Bobrova/Soloviev (if P/B aren't 100% healthy next season)
4) Pechalat/Bourzat (bronze if 100% healthy next season)
5) Weaver/Poje
 

sk8ingcoach

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 25, 2012
Ladies:

Kim
Kostner
Asada


Men:

Chan
Fernandez ( or he could pull of an upset to win gold )
Hanyu

Pairs:

Volosozhar/Trankov
Savchenko/Szolkowy
Duhamel/Radford


Dance:

Davis/White
Virtue/Moir
Pechalat/Bourzat
 

snejina

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 9, 2012
Pairs:
Volosozhar/Trankov or Savchenko/Szolkowy
Duhamel/Radford


Ladies:
Kim
Asada
Kostner

Men:
Chan
Hanyu
Fernandez

Dance:
Virtue/Moir
Davis/White
Pechalat/Bourzat
 

phaeljones

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 18, 2012
predictions

1. Hanyu (most capable of the extreme artistically and technically, if he can keep himself healthy . . . needs a more appropriate FS
choreography than this year though to address his sentimentality and his stamina issues)
2. Ten (I don't think he is a fluke)
3. Fernandez (consistency, consistency, consistency)
4. Chan (seems to be on a trajectory of mentally unraveling with no one putting him back together, but if someone does,
he could be unbeatable . . . don't see that happening, you can't tell someone who thinks he is perfect that he is not)
5. Reynolds (sentimental favorite . . . oh, I would cry with joy if he made the podium . . . needs more speed and height though ... hoping he gets it)
6. Takahashi (he just has to skate from one side of the boards to the other and he is awesome, I don't care if he wins.
just show up and he is worth a standing ovation, but I would be surprised if he got podium)
7. Aaron (he has beautiful energy, love to watch him, but his skating has to lose that "bull in the china shop" feel to it)
8. Brezina (maybe he can have a "Ten" moment, but his choice of choreography is consistently just not right for his skating)
9. Amodio (he would do better without Morosov being his Svengali, but that will never happen);
10. Joubert (hope he does something artistic . . . great to watch)
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Except for the countries with stacked fields like Japan, USA, and Russia...

Err, who in USA can make top 10 at Olympics and can't medal at US National?
Who in Japan can make top 10 and can't medal at Japan Nat?
Who in Russia can make top 10 and can't place top 2 at Russia Nat?

None. So they don't matter.
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Err, who in USA can make top 10 at Olympics and can't medal at US National?
Who in Japan can make top 10 and can't medal at Japan Nat?
Who in Russia can make top 10 and can't place top 2 at Russia Nat?

None. So they don't matter.

I disagree. In current form Eliza, Julia, and Adelina are all capable of making top 10 (though they might not depending how they skate on a given day they are capable of it) and one of them isn't going to place top 2 at Russian Nats. USA I agree with you- our only viable possibilities for top 10 at this time are Ashley and Gracie and they will be top 2.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
There are some skaters who are in jeapordy to miss their respective Olympics teams who could come top 10 at the Games if they were to make it, but might not make it, and my thread was top 10 so I see the point.

However there is nobody who is not a virtual lock for their own Olympic team who has a realistic chance at top 5 IMO.

The best skaters who are fighting for spots on their teams and not a lock would be:

U.S- Nagasu, Zawadzki, Gao, Lysacek (if he even returns), Abbott, Miner, Hubbel & Donahue, Shibutanis
Japan- Ando (if she returns), Oda, Kozuka, Mura, Machida
Russia- Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, several other Russian ladies

IMO none of those skaters are capable of a top 5 finish at the Games. The only exception I guess is Murakami and Suzuki who might be in slight danger if Ando returns, and are potentially both capable of top 5.
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
However there is nobody who is not a virtual lock for their own Olympic team who has a realistic chance at top 5 IMO.

The best skaters who are fighting for spots on their teams and not a lock would be:

U.S- Nagasu, Zawadzki, Gao, Lysacek (if he even returns), Abbott, Miner, Hubbel & Donahue, Shibutanis
Japan- Ando (if she returns), Oda, Kozuka, Mura, Machida
Russia- Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, several other Russian ladies

IMO none of those skaters are capable of a top 5 finish at the Games. The only exception I guess is Murakami and Suzuki who might be in slight danger if Ando returns, and are potentially both capable of top 5.

I think Sotnikova is capable of a top 5 finish were she able to skate cleanly. If she is able to skate cleanly is perhaps a different question, but something akin to her Euros performances might get her there especially if she had a little help.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
There are some skaters who are in jeapordy to miss their respective Olympics teams who could come top 10 at the Games if they were to make it, but might not make it, and my thread was top 10 so I see the point.

However there is nobody who is not a virtual lock for their own Olympic team who has a realistic chance at top 5 IMO.

The best skaters who are fighting for spots on their teams and not a lock would be:

U.S- Nagasu, Zawadzki, Gao, Lysacek (if he even returns), Abbott, Miner, Hubbel & Donahue, Shibutanis
Japan- Ando (if she returns), Oda, Kozuka, Mura, Machida
Russia- Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, several other Russian ladies

IMO none of those skaters are capable of a top 5 finish at the Games. The only exception I guess is Murakami and Suzuki who might be in slight danger if Ando returns, and are potentially both capable of top 5.

I would say Kozuka and Sotnikova are capable of a top 5 with clean skates... maybe Mura, Oda, Lipnitskaia and Tuktamysheva if they max out their technical content.
 

Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
Why would Kozuka not be able to make the top 5? I can't count 5 skaters out there who are better skaters than him. (Actually, if one wants to add Plush, it's probably exactly 5. But I'm still not sure Plush will be able to skate at the Olympics...).
If I'm not mistaken, his TES from 2011 worlds LP (~98) is still the highest ever given under IJS - with one quad no less. You can argue about how realistic it is for him to skate well, but a clean Kozuka will very, very likely make the Top 5. His 2011-12 season may not have been very good, but he came back to make the GPF in 2012 and just missed worlds because of his injury. Hopefully the injury won't affect his olympic season too much, that's the only reason I actually think he's not a lock for the team (as much as I love Mura).
 
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