Very early top 10 predictions per discipline for Sochi

96skiluvr said:

Spain has Lafuente for ladies, and Hurtado/Diaz for dance

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I have said about whether there are skaters who can go to Sochi Olympics.
Spain have no tickets for 2014 olympics, in ladies, ice dance, pair.

If you just asked about whether korea have male skater and pair, yes, they have.

As long as those skaters reach minimums it doesn't matter if they didn't qualify for their discipline they can do team.

This is as irresistible as it is impossible. Here goes!

Ladies:
1. Kim
2. Gold*
3. Kostner
4. Asada
5. Murakami
6. Sotnikova
7. Wagner
8. Osmond
9. Lipnitskaya
10. Suzuki

Men
1. Hanyu
2. Chan
3. Fernandez
4. Ten
5. Aaron
6. Takahashi**
7. Reynolds
8. Mura
9. Brezina
10. Farris

Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir***
3. Weaver/Poje
4. Pechalat/Bourzat
5. Bobrova/Soloviev
5. Cappellini/Lanotte
6. Chock/Bates
7. Ilinyk/Katsalapov
8. Hubbell/Donohue
9. Riazanova/Tkachenko
10. Zhiganshina/Gazsi

Pairs
1. Volosozhar/Trankov
2. Savchenko/Szokowy
3. Duhamel/Radford
4. Moore Towers/Moscovitch
5. Pang/Tong
6. Bazarova/Larionov
7. Scimeca/Knierim
8. Kavaguti/Smirnov
9. Sui/Han
10. James/Cipres

*Gold in silver may seem crazy, but her content is awesome, and she only needs to polish. Not so for most others.
**Takahashi would win gold if I could make it so, but I just think he's transitioning out of the competitive ranks.
***I've had a nagging feeling that those persistent V/M injuries could derail this season, and they could retire before Sochi. No evidence, just a gut sense.

gmyers said:

As long as those skaters reach minimums it doesn't matter if they didn't qualify for their discipline they can do team.

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Not quite so. Please see the two "Additional Athlete" restrictions for the Olympic team event that I have highlighted below.
Along with the minimum technical scores, these restrictions also might affect whether certain countries will have skaters in all four disciplines of the team event:

(1) "NOCs/ISU Members who do not have qualified Skaters/Couples in an individual OWG competition/discipline (Single Lady, Single Man, Pair Skating, Ice Dance), may benefit of an “Additional Athletes Quota” and enter into the Figure Skating Team Event 1 Skater/Couple. If applicable, each NOC may benefit of this Additional Athletes Quota for only one discipline of the Figure Skating Team Event."

(2) "The Additional Athletes Quota of up to 10 Skaters will be used giving preference to the best ranked “incomplete Teams” according to the ranking of the Figure Skating Team qualification list. The Additional Athletes Quota beyond the above-mentioned 10 Skaters cannot be exceeded and if not sufficient, the lower ranked “incomplete Teams” according to the ranking of the Figure Skating Team qualification list, may in such case not be able to complete their team."

golden411 said:

Not quite so. Please see the two "Additional Athlete" restrictions for the Olympic team event that I have highlighted below.
They also might affect whether certain countries will have skaters in all four disciplines of the team event:

(1) "NOCs/ISU Members who do not have qualified Skaters/Couples in an individual OWG competition/discipline (Single Lady, Single Man, Pair Skating, Ice Dance), may benefit of an “Additional Athletes Quota” and enter into the Figure Skating Team Event 1 Skater/Couple. If applicable, each NOC may benefit of this Additional Athletes Quota for only one discipline of the Figure Skating Team Event."

(2) "The Additional Athletes Quota of up to 10 Skaters will be used giving preference to the best ranked “incomplete Teams” according to the ranking of the Figure Skating Team qualification list. The Additional Athletes Quota beyond the above-mentioned 10 Skaters cannot be exceeded and if not sufficient, the lower ranked “incomplete Teams” according to the ranking of the Figure Skating Team qualification list, may in such case not be able to complete their team."

For the overall quota of ten, one pair or one dance couple counts as two skaters.
So it is possible that the quota of ten will be used up among higher-ranking countries, and that one or more teams from the lowest-ranked countries will be left incomplete.​

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So its not as blanket as a I was recalling!

Men

1. Patrick Chan
2. Yuzuru Hanyu
3. Denis Ten
4. Javier Fernandez
5. Evgeni Plushenko
6. Max Arron
7. Daisuke Takahashi
8. Jeremy Abbot
9. Kevin Reynolds
10. Brian Joubert

Do you guys think Patrick Chan will attempt this 4-3-3 next season? or was it just for fun?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FBra3ElV9uE

bibi24 said:

Men

1. Patrick Chan
2. Yuzuru Hanyu
3. Denis Ten
4. Javier Fernandez
5. Evgeni Plushenko
6. Max Arron
7. Daisuke Takahashi
8. Jeremy Abbot
9. Kevin Reynolds
10. Brian Joubert

Do you guys think Patrick Chan will attempt this 4-3-3 next season? or was it just for fun?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FBra3ElV9uE

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I hope it was not just for fun. Though the landing of 3loop was messy, it looked fully rotated to me. :think:

My pick:

Men

1.-3. Chan, Fernandez, Hanyu (not sure about the order)
4. Takahashi
5. Plushy (If he will be there)
6. Ten
7. Brezina
8. Reynolds
9. Joubert
10. Abott

Ladies

1. Kim (no doubt about that)
2. Asada (please Mao, work on 3f3lo!!!)
3. Wagner
4. Kostner (she has not convinced me YET)
5. Murakami (too bad about the UR´s, I really started to like her)
6. Li (please little Li, work on your flutz!!! :no: it is making me sad)
7. Suzuki
8. Sotnikova
9. Gold (I know, 9 is low but I am unsure about her ability to handly the pressure :think: )
10. Tuktamisheva

Just for the heck of it, I'm going to go against the grain with the ladies and predict as follows:

1. Carolina Kostner
2. Yu Na Kim
3. Mao Asada
4.Ashley Wagner
5.Gracie Gold
6. Akiko Suzuki
7. Lipnitskaya
8. Sotnikova
9. Murakami
10. Osmond

For the men, not including Plushenko or Lysacek:

1. Chan
2. Fernandez
3. Takahashi
4. Hanyu
5. Ten
6. Aaron
7. Abbott
8. Reynolds
9. ?
10. ?

Kuan said:

I hope it was not just for fun. Though the landing of 3loop was messy, it looked fully rotated to me. :think:

My pick:

Men

1.-3. Chan, Fernandez, Hanyu (not sure about the order)
4. Takahashi
5. Plushy (If he will be there)
6. Ten
7. Brezina
8. Reynolds
9. Joubert
10. Abott

Ladies

1. Kim (no doubt about that)
2. Asada (please Mao, work on 3f3lo!!!)
3. Wagner
4. Kostner (she has not convinced me YET)
5. Murakami (too bad about the UR´s, I really started to like her)
6. Li (please little Li, work on your flutz!!! :no: it is making me sad)
7. Suzuki
8. Sotnikova
9. Gold (I know, 9 is low but I am unsure about her ability to handly the pressure :think: )
10. Tuktamisheva

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I'm inclined to think Patrick's 4-3-3 combo was just for fun. If it isn't, not a very good decision because it won't even help him noticeably increase the BV of his free skate. He should practice a more difficult quad instead if he's going for more jump content.

Or keep the current layout and focus on skating clean because he hasn't been doing it for over a year.

fadeevfan said:

This is as irresistible as it is impossible. Here goes!



**Takahashi would win gold if I could make it so, but I just think he's transitioning out of the competitive ranks.

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Fadeevfan, I'm with you about Takahashi! If our thought waves could do it....sigh. But it won't matter in the long run. He will be a spectacular performer if he decides to continue as a pro, and he's lucky enough to live in a country where ice shows are still a big thing, so he'll have opportunities. The rest of us poor souls around the world can watch him on YouTube. What this guy has doesn't depend on his world ranking: like Kurt Browning, he transcends Olympic results. (It would be lovely if he did get on the podium, though!)

I wouldn't be surprised if one of the men tried a 4-4!

I could picture Hanyu capable of a 4T-4T (Hanyu would repeat his 3A, and turn his 3Z into a 3S if he executed the 2nd quad to avoid Zayaking... he would repeat his 3A and do his regular 3Z if he didn't execute the 2nd quad). That would be nuts!

Moment said:

I'm inclined to think Patrick's 4-3-3 combo was just for fun. If it isn't, not a very good decision because it won't even help him noticeably increase the BV of his free skate. He should practice a more difficult quad instead if he's going for more jump content.

Or keep the current layout and focus on skating clean because he hasn't been doing it for over a year.

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Yeah, he gets more points for the three-jump series later on. Plus he wouldn't be able to do a solo loop (it would have to be a salchow). Plus he wouldn't get the bonus on the second half 3L. 4T-3T-3L, 4T, 3Z, 3Ax, 3Z-2Tx, 3Fx, 3Sx, 2Ax
Which is worth less than: 4T-3T, 4T, 3Z, 3Ax, 3Lx, 3Z-2Tx, 3F-1/2L-3Sx, 2Ax

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

I could picture Hanyu capable of a 4T-4T (Hanyu would repeat his 3A, and turn his 3Z into a 3S if he executed the 2nd quad to avoid Zayaking... he would repeat his 3A and do his regular 3Z if he didn't execute the 2nd quad). That would be nuts!



Yeah, he gets more points for the three-jump series later on. Plus he wouldn't be able to do a solo loop (it would have to be a salchow). Plus he wouldn't get the bonus on the second half 3L. 4T-3T-3L, 4T, 3Z, 3Ax, 3Z-2Tx, 3Fx, 3Sx, 2Ax
Which is worth less than: 4T-3T, 4T, 3Z, 3Ax, 3Lx, 3Z-2Tx, 3F-1/2L-3Sx, 2Ax

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To be fair he could add a double at the end of either 4T/solo 3Lz/3F/3S/2A to the first layout to worth about a half point more than the second layout. This however only further proves it isn't worth doing a third 3Lo anyway, which is extremely difficult. This is why we need a combination bonus (why didn't it happen already?).

Now I'll try, too:
MEN
1) Chan
2) Fernandez
3) Hanyu
4) Takahashi
5) Aaron
6) Joubert
7) Amodio
8) Reynolds
9) Ten (I still think that his silver medal was almost a fluke... if he medals in the GP, I might change my opinion)
10) Brezina
LADIES
1) Kim (no doubt here! )
2) Asada
3) Kostner
4) Tuktamysheva (I have a strange feeling that she will have the SOHL at the Olympics)
5) Gold
6) Murakami
7) Suzuki
8)Wagner
9) Li
10) Sotnikova
PAIRS
1) Volosozhar/Trankov
2) Savchenko/Szolkowy
3) Duhamel/Radford
4) Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
5) Kavaguti/Smirnov (this is more what I hope)
6) Bazarova/Larionov
7) Pang/Tong
8) Denney/Coughlin
9) James/Cipres
10) Berton/Hotarek (again, this is what I hope, the reason is obvious)
DANCE
1) Davis/White
2) Virtue/Moir
3) Bobrova/Soloviev (home ice)
4) Pechalat/Bourzat
5) Cappellini/Lanotte
6) Ilynikh/Katsalapov (home ice again, and Morozov politicking)
7) Weaver/Poje
8) Chock/Bates
9) Shibs
10) 3rd Russian pair

Not surprised to see nearly everyone have Kim and Volosozhar & Trankov winning. It does strike me as interesting nearly everyone so far has picked Davis & White to win. I thought it might be more split with Virtue & Moir. I do have a strong feeling Davis & White have the edge now personally though.

For the men we have 5 having Chan winning 4 for Fernandez, 1 for Plushy, and 1 for Hanyu. Chan has 5 gold picks, 3 silver picks, 2 bronze picks, and only 1 4th place pick. I must say I think the predictions for Chan's chances are extremely generous at this point. I predict there will be some backlash in his scores from the huge uproar over Worlds, and he is already past his prime and declining massively technically.

Davis and White have been very strong, particularly their SD last year, while V/M have been making errors and aren't as sharp as they've been before. They'll still be D/W's greatest competition but it's really splitting hairs at this point. For V/M to win they need higher difficulty and greater conviction. But I can't help but think that D/W will win gold seeing as how they're the USA's best chance at a medal, let alone gold -- and because D/W are performing just a bit better at this point in time.

As for Chan, I don't think there will be backlash over his scores. In the judges' mind, he lost the FS and his SP lead sealed the win, plus their PCS scores were 3.5 points lower than his personal best (sub-90). I don't think he'll get the same favourability over Hanyu/Fernandez/Takahashi that he did over Ten, and a clean skate or close to clean skate will be important. I also don't think it's fair to say he's past his prime, when you could say the same for Takahashi/Plushenko/Joubert, etc. If anyone is past his prime, it's Takahashi... Plushenko at Euros was excellent, but not as good as in the past... Joubert is likely a non-factor even if he skates well. Fernandez and Hanyu haven't quite gotten to the point that their PCS can match Takahashi/Chan, although their technical ability (particularly Javier's) have surpassed Chan in terms of difficulty (though not yet in terms of GOE). To say he's past his prime isn't exactly a fair assessment considering he had a superb 2013 Worlds SP (a world record), it's been barely a year since his last clean freeskate (4CC 2012 - where he pulled 185 points), and he's continually been capable of landing 2 quads in his FS (but makes errors on easier elements - which to me doesn't show a decline in technical ability so much as a decline in focus). I still think Hanyu will beat Chan in Sochi (so make that 2 for Hanyu) because of him having comparable technical content and two 3As and the most potential to get higher PCS next season (not to mention other than Takahashi, he's the only one whose SP has even come close to touching Chan's best SP scores) -- I think Javier is a big threat but 3 quads is a really tall order for anyone, and other than Euros 2013, Javier hasn't had the best consistency between both segments. I'd have to see more of Denis Ten before predicting with him - everyone knows that was such a surprise World silver, and I can't imagine the rest of the field will be as poor in Sochi as they were in 2013 Worlds.

pangtongfan said:

For the men we have 5 having Chan winning 4 for Fernandez, 1 for Plushy, and 1 for Hanyu. Chan has 5 gold picks, 3 silver picks, 2 bronze picks, and only 1 4th place pick. I must say I think the predictions for Chan's chances are extremely generous at this point. I predict there will be some backlash in his scores from the huge uproar over Worlds, and he is already past his prime and declining massively technically.

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COP is COP they can't do anything about the issue of his perfect short program getting so many points it did. Backlash against Plushenko and his skating along with an email campaign against him by famous judge and ISU instructor as well as comments by ISU President Cinquanta against Plushenko only knocked him down to second. So if a judge wants to give him and 9 in PE and he falls twice there is nothing that can get that score down from 9. The email campaign of Inman got 2 judges to give Plushenko 5.00 in transitions but isn't it amazing that 2 judges said a score for no transitions was 5? LOL.

Plushenko with his low PCS, indeed influenced by the disgusting pro American Inman and his comrades, would have been knocked down to 7th or 8th in Vancouver had it been a well skated event. He even lost to Lysacek, and we all know there are tons of guys even in 2010 who could have beaten a quadless Lysacek (or even Lysacek with a quad for that matter), even with Inman and others running their shameless pro Lysacek chances campaigning.

pangtongfan said:

Plushenko with his low PCS, indeed influenced by the disgusting pro American Inman and his comrades, would have been knocked down to 7th or 8th in Vancouver had it been a well skated event. He even lost to Lysacek, and we all know there are tons of guys even in 2010 who could have beaten a quadless Lysacek (or even Lysacek with a quad for that matter), even with Inman and others running their shameless pro Lysacek chances campaigning.

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So you're saying that the backlash against Chan would matter if it was a well skated event but if it wasn't then it would be difficult for the Chan backlash to appear because he already has such a PCS advantage that if others skated poorly their PCS would go down? That is what I think the above alludes to. That if the 2010 event was well skated and men like Takahashi didn't fall or Abbott didn't fall or Chan didn't have his mistakes then Plushenko would have been behind all of them because of the campaign? I can see that. But Plushenko was the only man in Vancouver who did both 3A and quad triple in his SP And LP and was by far the most technically advanced man in Vancouver. Or he was the only one dumb enough to show the total range of his skills when COP had made quads so worthless and they had no value and why almost everyone else didn't do quads and did 3/5 layout.