Who wins Olympic team event?
- Thread starter Mathman
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- Feb 17, 2010
Ladies is actually a toss up and I can see USA, CAN, or RUS winning depending on who skates the best.
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- Jun 21, 2003
I think these are the only three countries that can field competitive teams in all disciplines. But the way the scoring works, other countries can play spoiler.
For instance, suppose the men’s competition in the short program goes
Chan
Hanyu/Takahashi
Plushenko
Joubert/Amodio
Aaron
with Fernandez and Ten not participating.
Then Chan gets a total of 10 placement points, Plushenko 8, and Aaron 6.
For ladies, if it could go something like Kostner, Mao, Li, Wagner, Sotnikova, Osmond (Kim not participating).
Then Osmond only gets 5 points for the SP, but her rivals Sotnikova and Wagner only get 6 and 7 points.
Chan + Osmond = 15
Plushenko + Sotnikova = 14
Aaron + Wagner = 13.
By the way, you don’t get double the points for the long program, but only five teams compete, so last place out of five still gets 6 points.
For instance, suppose the men’s competition in the short program goes
Chan
Hanyu/Takahashi
Plushenko
Joubert/Amodio
Aaron
with Fernandez and Ten not participating.
Then Chan gets a total of 10 placement points, Plushenko 8, and Aaron 6.
For ladies, if it could go something like Kostner, Mao, Li, Wagner, Sotnikova, Osmond (Kim not participating).
Then Osmond only gets 5 points for the SP, but her rivals Sotnikova and Wagner only get 6 and 7 points.
Chan + Osmond = 15
Plushenko + Sotnikova = 14
Aaron + Wagner = 13.
By the way, you don’t get double the points for the long program, but only five teams compete, so last place out of five still gets 6 points.
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- Dec 11, 2011
Is the team event at the Olympics different from the WTT in the respect that there is only one entry for each event? If so, I have to imagine this will tilt it in favor of the US. Japan is favored at the WTT by the fact that there are two entries in the single skater events, given how it's scored. Their pair and dance teams automatically earn +6 points even if they're last.
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- Aug 21, 2012
Can't a country use different skaters for the SP and FS?
For example, couldn't the US have Ashley skate the SP (her strength) and Gracie skate the FS (her strength)? I think that would maximize the US' chances of winning gold, since Ashley with a 3-3 will take the lead in the SP (even without, she won't be far behind Sotnikova and Osmond) and seven-triple Gracie in the FS can completely decimate the competition.
I also don't think Li will beat Wagner; she may or may not beat Osmond and Sotnikova, depending on what state they show up in. The US is favored in terms of dance and ladies', Japan is favored in terms of ladies and men's but falls back in pairs, Canada is strongest in men's, and Russia is strongest in men and pairs. Really, any of those could take the cake.
Also, 1000th post! Woo! :yay:
For example, couldn't the US have Ashley skate the SP (her strength) and Gracie skate the FS (her strength)? I think that would maximize the US' chances of winning gold, since Ashley with a 3-3 will take the lead in the SP (even without, she won't be far behind Sotnikova and Osmond) and seven-triple Gracie in the FS can completely decimate the competition.
I also don't think Li will beat Wagner; she may or may not beat Osmond and Sotnikova, depending on what state they show up in. The US is favored in terms of dance and ladies', Japan is favored in terms of ladies and men's but falls back in pairs, Canada is strongest in men's, and Russia is strongest in men and pairs. Really, any of those could take the cake.
Also, 1000th post! Woo! :yay:
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- Dec 11, 2011
Don't you imagine that only being responsible for one event would affect a skater psychologically? Being THE short program skater (on which the USA's!, for example, hopes are pinned) would increase the SP pressure in way that normally doesn't effect good-SP skaters, don't you think?
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- Feb 17, 2010
I wonder if Gracie is better at the LP or is better because it is her second event and she gets the nerves out of the way in the SP. If it's the latter, she might skate a shaky LP since it will be her first event at the games.
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- Jun 16, 2010
Canada should crush the U.S in mens and in pairs. The U.S at best will barely beat Canada in dance, and Osmond if she improves can even challenge the US women. Canada should win the team gold no problem if they all skate their best. It would be a huge dissapointment if they dont, as they have by far the deepest and strongest team of anyone.
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- Sep 14, 2008
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"Deepest" team? There's only one entry per discipline for each country (not how it should be, but there we are). That doesn't really make any sense.
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- Dec 11, 2011
I'm slow. Who are you responding to B of P?
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- Sep 14, 2008
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I was responding to gangtongpan's comment right before mine.
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- Jun 21, 2003
Since only placements count, not CoP scores, one skater can "crush" another only by the efforts of third parties that might insert themselves into the order.
Assuming that the teams that make the LP are Canada, Russia, USA, Japan, and France, and that France does not beat anyone in the LP, and basing the results on Worlds (putting Plushenko third behind Chan and Hanyu/Tashahashi and putting Denny and Coughlin 5th in the SP behind S&S and P&T and 3rd in the LP), it comes out like this:
Canada 72
Russia 67 (Sotnikova SP. Tuktamyshiva LP)
USA 63 (Wagner SP, Gold LP)
Chan's the man. If he gets first while Joubert/Amodio and Brezina beat somebody in the short program, Canada should bag this.
On the other hand, we know that Chan is a reluctant participant in these team competitions. If Chan does not go all out, then Duhamel and Radford will be the heros with a strong third and second. Also, we don't know if Plushenko will be up to par. Aaron could surprise and put USA ahead of Russia for the silver.
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- Feb 27, 2012
Well, we know that Chan was more outspoken about WTT this year than other skaters (who, in certain cases, shared at least some of his feelings).
The last thing I want to do is stir up the anti-Chan pot, but I really do not know the objective answer to my question:
Has Chan commented specifically about the Sochi team event?
He certainly knows from experience that reaching the Olympic podium is easier said than done. No matter what he thinks about WTT, is it possible that his feelings about the Sochi team event are more positive because it offers the opportunity to earn an Olympic medal?
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- Jun 21, 2003
I think you are right. I found this:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...-chan-yearns-for-olympic-gold/article9854071/
Sounds like Patrick is all fired up and ready to go now that the team has a good shot at gold.
I think he's read your analysis and can taste the fruits of victory already. (for what it's worth, I generally agree with it as well 
)
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- Jun 21, 2003
You know, Patrick is my boy, but he has a unique talent for trying to say the right thing, but then it comes out wrong. It seems like he is saying that the only reason he cares about the team competition is because finally we've got a lady who is not an albatross around our necks and we might actually win. 
Seriously, though, I wonder what skaters like Carolina Kostner and Cappillini & Lanotte, even Berton & Hotarek, feel about the whole thing.
Seriously, though, I wonder what skaters like Carolina Kostner and Cappillini & Lanotte, even Berton & Hotarek, feel about the whole thing.
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- Aug 21, 2012
What? And being responsible for TWO events would be less psychologically demanding?
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- Dec 11, 2011
No, I just meant that someone who's thought to be better at one rather than the other might feel a different (but equal) kind of psychological pressure in an event in which she/he is only assigned to skate the event at which she/he is considered more capable.
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- Aug 21, 2012
Quite possibly, but since it'll be at the Olympic Games, I think the pressure will be considerably heightened anyway. Right now, Wagner is a far-better SP skater than Gold; Gold is a better FS skater than Wagner due to her ability (usually) to pull off the seven triples.
