What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean | Page 14 | Golden Skate

What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean

let`s talk

Match Penalty
Joined
Sep 10, 2009
Kim has not received that much GOEs except in FS at 2013 World. I can't remember when she got +3 on spin or step in the past. It was special case.
:laugh: The right word has been found- Yuna's score at Worlds-2013is just the special case. I wonder how much it helps the skaters and to the audience and, which is much more important, to the justice in this sport that go abused. No one cares what title you put on her win and score. The cheat took place and that's the only thing that counts.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
I think it is because the premise is what would happen if they all went clean, presumably with their planned programs. There are already plenty of discussions and threads about who people think will win. But the probability of going clean doesn't factor into this hypothetical since they are already assumed to go clean. If we're talking maximization of scoring potential, Caro's program doesn't maximize her scoring potential either, as Caro could also put 2 lutzes, 2 flips, etc. so that would be a whole different discussion. I think that would be an interesting discussion to have, but it is a different issue from the hypothetical of clean planned programs.

It still does apply, because we cannot fairly limit Yuna in this hypothetical scenario to just her standard layout while assuming Mao can be 100% clean with her 8-triple LP. We need to max them all out with programs that each of them are even remotely capable of.

To elaborate, what I'm really saying is, if we assume away the likelihood of success, then why limit Yuna to 6 triples in the LP? Why not assume a 7-triple with the following:

3Lz+3T
3Lo
3F
2A+3T
3Lz+2T+2L
3S
2A

Unrealistic and highly unlikely, you might say? But that's exactly what we're supposedly taking out of consideration (i.e., the likelihood of success) in this discussion.
 

Robeye

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
Robeye brought up a good point--in that why are we assuming, for our comparison of hypothetical programs, a program by Yuna that has very high probability of being 100% clean vs. programs by Carolina and Mao with very low chances of 100% clean? In fairness, we should consider cases in which Yuna upgrades her tech content to a level that maximizes her scoring potential while being no less likely to be 100% clean than either Mao or Carolina. For instance, Yuna could include the 3Loop in her program while repeating both the Lutz and the Flip in the LP. While her chances of going clean would be slim, it certainly wouldn't be any more far-fetched than Mao doing a 100% clean 8-triple LP or Carolina doing a clean 7-triple LP at the Olympics. After all, Yuna herself has actually executed a few 7-triple programs in her past skating career. Just some further comments based on Robeye's post, which seems to have been overlooked in all the heated back-and-forth in this thread.
Xactly, Krislite.

If the probability of success of Mao's and Caro's hypothetical programs were, say, 5% (for the sake of example; I have not calculated the actual probabilities; that would require investments of time and effort of a different level entirely), then, logically, we need to compare them to a hypothetical Yuna program whose scoring is maximized at the same 5% probability level. Can we construct such a "stretch" Yuna program for which the score exceeds that for the hypothetical Caro/Mao programs in question? I am very comfortable that the answer is a resounding "yes", and to spare.

Conversely, if the probability of success of Yuna's current layout is, say, 60% (again, I pulled this number out of a hat for argument sake, and have not actually derived it from historical data. Nevertheless, it is the order of magnitude of difference that is important in this argument, not decimal precision), can we construct a program for either Caro or Mao that, based on historical scores and success rates for the elements and components, would have overall probabilities of 60% (that is to say, that matches the probability of success of Yuna's current layout), and which even come close to matching or exceeding Yuna's score? (Let's say very roughly that Yuna could score 220-225 if she did every single thing in a 6-triple layout to the best of her demonstrated ability). Even without crunching all the numbers, I would be willing to wager a large sum that the answer would be a resounding "no", and to spare.

Again, this is a straight analysis that demonstrates why Yuna is rightly considered the favorite for Sochi, but such analyses are not a cast-iron, unfailing prediction of the future. There is still a very substantial possibility that Yuna will not skate clean in the one-time, go-big-or-go-home
atmosphere of the Olympics, as well as a still-material chance that Caro or Mao will either skate clean, or come sufficiently close to it that, in combination with Yuna mistakes, one or the other might win. I would not lay a wager on it without being offered very, very advantageous odds, but the chance exists even so.

My point is that the question as originally framed has very little relevance, meaning, or usefulness. If we allow stretch programs where the prospects of clean execution are extremely low to be compared to Yuna's relatively high probability current layout, without taking due account of probabilities, then why limit it to just Mao and Caro?

The question could be easily re-cast, without violating the spirit or the logic of the original in any way, to ask: What would the podium be if Kostner, Asada, Kim, Wagner, Suzuki, Gold, Osmond, Murakami, Sotnikova, Li, Tukt, etc. etc. etc. etc. (insert any other senior skaters here) all skated clean?

One could just as well as argue that, on a good day, doing all that she is capable of, one could construct programs for Sotnikova that win Gold, or that we will have a headline of Gold[SUP]2[/SUP]. ;)

If you object to those scenarios on the premise that these outcomes are relatively improbable based on track record, my reply would be: what possible concern can there be that such scenarios only have a 2% probability of success, when you have admitted as legitimate the scenarios for Mao and Caro with a 5% probability? The difference between the hypothetical Caro/Mao programs and the fantasy programs for the rest of the young pack (say, 5% vs. 2%), I argue, is far, far smaller than the difference between Caro/Mao and Yuna's current layout (say, 5% vs. 60%) as far as probabilities go.

In other words, the answer becomes reduced to, if not an outright reductio ad absurdum ("Marchei will win if she goes clean with the skate of her life!!!! She's done beautiful triple-triples in practice and don't you deny it!!!!"), then to the level of self-evident truism. "Anyone can win! It ain't over 'til it's over! That's why they actually hold the competition!"

All of the latter cannot be denied, but did we really need an extended thread about it?
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
:laugh: The right word has been found- Yuna's score at Worlds-2013is just the special case. I wonder how much it helps the skaters and to the audience and, which is much more important, to the justice in this sport that go abused. No one cares what title you put on her win and score. The cheat took place and that's the only thing that counts.

Sorry, dearie. No matter what judging system you apply, Yuna won Worlds 2013 fair and square. Nobody will remember the score you find so repulsive, since it was completely immaterial to the results, which were obvious to the audience and the competing skaters. On the contrary, the only thing people will remember is that she walked away with an indisputable victory.
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
:laugh: The right word has been found- Yuna's score at Worlds-2013is just the special case. I wonder how much it helps the skaters and to the audience and, which is much more important, to the justice in this sport that go abused. No one cares what title you put on her win and score. The cheat took place and that's the only thing that counts.

Ok. Then, Now you knew that it was special case? It is so good thing. Then, how about wait the GPS, and judgement? believe me. Judges will not give her score like in FS in 2013 World. Then, would you fine?
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Sorry, dearie. No matter what judging system you apply, Yuna won Worlds 2013 fair and square. Nobody will remember the score you find so repulsive, since it was completely immaterial to the results, which were obvious to the audience and the competing skaters. On the contrary, the only thing people will remember is that she walked away with an indisputable victory.

We all know how solid and indisputable Yuna's victory was -- for goodness' sake, the crowd was cheering so loudly that you couldn't even hear the last 10-15 seconds of the music. let's talk is just deriving pleasure from making ridiculous statements to get a reaction, assuming that ALL Yuna fans must be Yuna fans. That's why I haven't bothered replying to him/her. :)
 

Robeye

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
We all know how solid and indisputable Yuna's victory was -- for goodness' sake, the crowd was cheering so loudly that you couldn't even hear the last 10-15 seconds of the music. let's talk is just deriving pleasure from making ridiculous statements to get a reaction, assuming that ALL Yuna fans must be Yuna fans. That's why I haven't bothered replying to him/her. :)
You and me both. let's talk checks off all of the bullet points for trolling. Frankly, I am surprised that (s)he has been allowed to get away with it for so long.
 

alfoalfo

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 14, 2010
This thread was giving me a hernia ugh.. Why do people hate a skater? Doesn't make sense to me, when you don't even know the person in real life. Or even dislike a skater for doing what they'e trained their entire life to do? What just because they get great marks for showcasing their skills and talents when t matters?

Anyway, what is everyone's definition of clean? Is it being perfect or just not not falling or missing any elements?

I think if all three are technically perfect, Mao has the upper hand cos she's got the much higher BV, but artistically I personally think Yuna and Caro have the edge as they both have the 'it' factor when it comes to interpretation. Just IMO.

So if all 3 are clean, it just depends on the panel of judges as well as the skating order. In the end, who gets on the higher podium will be out of the skaters' control.
 

guanchi

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 31, 2012
:laugh: The right word has been found- Yuna's score at Worlds-2013is just the special case. I wonder how much it helps the skaters and to the audience and, which is much more important, to the justice in this sport that go abused. No one cares what title you put on her win and score. The cheat took place and that's the only thing that counts.

Care to provide proof of this so-called cheat? :laugh:
Is that all you've got:laugh:
You must stock up on tinfoil:laugh:
Gee, I guess All that Skate money, pachinko parlor money, Lotte and Maruhan money, have been secretly divested somewhere under the mattresses of the JSF and also into the judges pockets. Well there, gee goshdarnit, you have your proof of a cheat right there. UN-NON-INDISPUTABLE!!!

You're so sad...:laugh:
 

cheerio2

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 27, 2013
Krislite said:
It still does apply, because we cannot fairly limit Yuna in this hypothetical scenario to just her standard layout while assuming Mao can be 100% clean with her 8-triple LP. We need to max them all out with programs that each of them are even remotely capable of.

Nothing is unfair in a hypothetical because its just a hypothetical. If Yuna is planning her standard layout, then yes, we can fairly limit her to that since clean planned programs are what this premise is about. I get that you think this hypothetical is unrealistic, but still, people are free to consider what would happen in this hypothetical, no? Just like if someone wanted to start a thread asking, "What would happen if 3loops were not counted as jumps?" That would be "unfair" for Mao since Mao does max amount of loops, but people are free to consider the question nonetheless. Maxed out programs are a totally different question.
 

cosmos

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Caro and Mao got score inflation more than YuNa. How could those flawed performance get 130+? It was Mao's personal best! In Fs, the gap between YuNa and Mao was ONLY 14. It should have been larger, IMO.
 

cooper

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
We all know how solid and indisputable Yuna's victory was -- for goodness' sake, the crowd was cheering so loudly that you couldn't even hear the last 10-15 seconds of the music. let's talk is just deriving pleasure from making ridiculous statements to get a reaction, assuming that ALL Yuna fans must be Yuna fans. That's why I haven't bothered replying to him/her. :)

let's stalk is a russian who lives in japan. don't ever say anything that the russian fed is not corrupt..hey forget what happened in Salt Lake.. it was yuna's fault too..:laugh: and then you have the power of the japanese fed.. see.. only yuna is a cheater.. hilarious.. :laugh: must be painful for her to see yuna kicking her favorite skaters as* BIG TIME..
 

let`s talk

Match Penalty
Joined
Sep 10, 2009
Sorry, dearie. No matter what judging system you apply, Yuna won Worlds 2013 fair and square. Nobody will remember the score you find so repulsive, since it was completely immaterial to the results, which were obvious to the audience and the competing skaters. On the contrary, the only thing people will remember is that she walked away with an indisputable victory.
No, sweetheart. That is where you are entirely wrong. PChan in his career too had wins that were not questioned, while his abnormal score rose a red flag almost immediately after Vancouver, if not earlier. Then it got escalated, judges kept giving him astronomic score, even with multiple falls, because they couldn't afford to admit that before that they had been doing something wrong, so, they just kept overscoring him. All this ended up with boo-ing in Nice and then the second his fake win in a row in Ontarian London. I noticed how no one from Yuna fandom failed to answer my question. I repeat- no one. Obviously because they have nothing constructive to say. Take the real score of Yuna at Worlds-2013, look at the real protocols with real mistakes that Mao and Caro did. And now tell me, if the hadn't made those mistakes and got their stuff fully ratified, how would they possible reach the Yuna's inflated score? They wouldn't. Simple math. That's the point. Overscoring is always evil. It's unfair to other skaters and it kills the competition. This sport has been damaged enough by CoP. If Yuna and her fandom don't care, I find it perfectly understandable. Why should they care.
let's talk is just deriving pleasure from making ridiculous statements to get a reaction, assuming that ALL Yuna fans must be Yuna fans. That's why I haven't bothered replying to him/her. :)
:laugh: Lol. What do you mean you haven't bother if you are bothering right now? The fact that you can't do it straight to my face makes your act more pathetic, but it doesn't change the fact you are replying to my honorable persona indirectly. Is it what Yuna fans do? You guys can't stop surprising me.
Frankly, I am surprised that (s)he has been allowed to get away with it for so long.
Obviously due to same reason why your buddies have been allowed to get away with worse stuff. It's so lovely to see how Yuna fans don't even recognize name-calling, personal attacks and insults when they come from their own pack, but they whine for moderation when it comes from someone else. Nothing can be more pathetic. I am missing Chan ubers. Even they were more life-enchanting. Yawn. No one here gets banned for bashing Plu, Mao, Chan, Dai. And they, Plu especially, survived way more nasty stuff. There is no reason why your Yuna should get any special treatment. It would make her and her fandom look weaker than the rest.:sarcasm:
don't ever say anything that the russian fed is not corrupt..hey forget what happened in Salt Lake.
Who forgot? No way. The SLC scandal was staged by Skate Canada and NA media. Anyone who isn't living under the rock and who knows how to google knows that. The worst part is it resulted in CoP invented by SC and worshiped by Dore. The rest you know- declining popularity of the sport, questionable wins, scores, etc. :disapp:
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
I think Yuna's score was exceptionally high (higher than it might have been otherwise) for two reasons:
1) she was the only one in the final flight to skate cleanly (there seems to be a subconcious PCS boost from judges for clean programs, which was apparent here)
2) she skated last which meant the judges could score (and did) the only viable winning program however they chose because a win by 1 point, 5 points, 10 points, or 22 points doesn't change the fact that it would be a win.

It's undeniable that Yuna deserved to win Worlds in 2013 and, as has been told to skaters, coaches and everyone else, you cannot compare scores across events. :)
 

cooper

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
I think Yuna's score was exceptionally high (higher than it might have been otherwise) for two reasons:
1) she was the only one in the final flight to skate cleanly (there seems to be a subconcious PCS boost from judges for clean programs, which was apparent here)
2) she skated last which meant the judges could score (and did) the only viable winning program however they chose because a win by 1 point, 5 points, 10 points, or 22 points doesn't change the fact that it would be a win.

It's undeniable that Yuna deserved to win Worlds in 2013 and, as has been told to skaters, coaches and everyone else, you cannot compare scores across events. :)

finally. someone who has reason. rather than making assumptions about corrupt judging and blaming others because his/her favorite didn't bring her A game that night and should give credit where credit is due. :disapp:
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
I think Yuna's score was exceptionally high (higher than it might have been otherwise) for two reasons:
1) she was the only one in the final flight to skate cleanly (there seems to be a subconcious PCS boost from judges for clean programs, which was apparent here)
2) she skated last which meant the judges could score (and did) the only viable winning program however they chose because a win by 1 point, 5 points, 10 points, or 22 points doesn't change the fact that it would be a win.

It's undeniable that Yuna deserved to win Worlds in 2013 and, as has been told to skaters, coaches and everyone else, you cannot compare scores across events. :)

Thank you for talking sense. Unfortunately, we haven't seen much of that on this thread, but ITA with everything you've said. Being spotless in the final flight made Yuna stand out, hence her humongous score.
 

let`s talk

Match Penalty
Joined
Sep 10, 2009
she skated last which meant the judges could score (and did) the only viable winning program however they chose because a win by 1 point, 5 points, 10 points, or 22 points doesn't change the fact that it would be a win.
:laugh: Great laugh! If I didn't know that you were a Yuna fan, I would say that you were fashionably sarcastic. For a Yuna fan it is the lamest reply possible. You are saying that with the SAME skating she could have won with 1 points or 22 points over her rivals. Jesus Christ :eek:. Is it your only defence left? What you are saying doesn't make any sense and, which is way worse, it contrudicts the whole idea of fair play. The judging system is called Code of Points, obviously for a reason. Your claim that the win of 1 or 22 points is irrelevant, in fact has no merit and only proves the flaws in the system. Moreover, the gap between 1 and 22 points is 21 points. A skater has to do a lot of stuff to earn such far to be a small sum. Disparading this difference as "not worthy" in fact doesn't make your Yuna any favour, unless you are saying that she was grossly overscored, which I am saying as well. Besides, treating the same level of skating as the one being "win" by 1 point or 22 points is not fair to the skater as well (Yuna is this case). Because the whole idea of CoP is to compare the skater not to his/her rivals, the one that Yuna fans have been trolling around, but to compare it to the certain standard and get rewarded accordingly. The standard doesn't change when Caro or Mao make mistake or don't. Therefore, claiming that Yuna got the inflated score just because her rivals made mistakes, is cheat, which is what CoP is all about.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
I think Yuna's score was exceptionally high (higher than it might have been otherwise) for two reasons:
1) she was the only one in the final flight to skate cleanly (there seems to be a subconcious PCS boost from judges for clean programs, which was apparent here)
2) she skated last which meant the judges could score (and did) the only viable winning program however they chose because a win by 1 point, 5 points, 10 points, or 22 points doesn't change the fact that it would be a win.

It's undeniable that Yuna deserved to win Worlds in 2013 and, as has been told to skaters, coaches and everyone else, you cannot compare scores across events. :)

ITA. I called it "happy piddles" scoring :). The judges were so excited to see her knock her program out of the park they let the high scores fly. There was no question she was the winner and like you said, whether she won by 5 points or 25 didn't matter b/c no one can legitimately argue that she didn't deserve to win. I do think she was overscored at worlds this year in the FS (I actually think she was a tad underscored in the SP) but in the end, she was the clear winner so the numbers are irrelevant.

Had she skated before Carolina or Mao, I don't think her score would have been that high...it'd have been high, but not that high. I mean, that was less than 2 points off of her Vancouver score! (150.06 vs 148.34). When I did my scoring my numbers for Yu-Na came up to 140.52. (Mao - 134.90, Carolina - 130.25). I feel like the judges were very generous with GOE, especially the +3s and that was the difference in my scoring versus what the judges came up with. Just to compare, Yu-Na received a total of 7 +3 GOEs in Vancouver; at worlds this year she received 33. I think that has something to do with the way the GOE are factored in now but it also has to do with the excitement of seeing her come back after so long and still be able to put on that kind of performance. They wanted to reward her for that...and on a night where the only other people who skated cleanly were not going to medal (Zijun Li and Kanako Murakami), why wouldn't they reward her?
 
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