The rest of the top 12 ladies and the Olympics....

ForeverFish · Jun 29, 2013

silverlake22 said:
I have a hard time imagining the 3rd US lady won't make the top 12, unless it's Czisny or Nagasu and they meltdown or have URs galore, respectively. If it's Gao or Zawadzki, which is more likely, I think they'd make the top 12, if not the top 10.

I can think of eleven ladies who can (and probably will) beat Gao/Zawadzki: Kim, Kostner, Asada, Wagner, Gold, Murakami, Suzuki, two of Tuktamysheva/Sotnikova/Lipnitskaia, Osmond, and Korpi. So, theoretically, they could make the top twelve with good skates, but they have little room for error.

Cherryy · Jun 29, 2013

Are there any news about Korpi? She was doing pretty well at the begining of the last season. For how long has she been away from the ice?

ice coverage · Jun 29, 2013

Cherryy said:
Are there any news about Korpi? She was doing pretty well at the begining of the last season. For how long has she been away from the ice?

If you are referring to the injury that prevented Korpi from skating at Worlds ... she has been back on the ice for weeks, if I am not mistaken. (If she has had a new-new very recent injury, then sorry, I am not aware of that.)
And I believe that she was in Canada getting choreography not too long ago. Ashley Wagner and she were tweeting about coincidentally being there at the same time.

pangtongfan · Jun 29, 2013

Li'Kitsu said:
You could completly flip this list and you'd be closer to the truth.
If all those ladies skated cleanly, Wagner would never beat Gold, Osmond wouldn't be the highest ranking, and Sotnikova/Tuktamysheva wouldn't be last.

I think it would be very close between Gold and Wagner if they both skated cleanly. I wouldnt be sure at all Gold would neccessarily come out ahead. Gold would score higher on TES but Wagner on PCS. If Wagner gets a 3-3 over the summer I dont think Gold has any chance to beat her if both are clean, unless she has improved her PCS alot.

I am not really sure what order Gold, Wagner, Suzuki would come in if all skated cleanly. I do think all 3 would come higher than a clean Murakami, Sotnikova, or Osmond though unless perhaps the event was in Japan (Murakami), Russia (Sotnikova and the other Russians), or Canada (Osmond) in which case said skater might place higher than normally under that hyopthetical would. Lipnitskaia would be out of the top 15 in a World event with everyone skating perfectly. Her only asset is consistency and spins, the rest suck. I have no idea how a clean Korpi would figure as we have never seen anything remotedly close to that, although her clean short at Finlandia got a 69.

pangtongfan · Jun 29, 2013

ForeverFish said:
Agreed. There's no way that a clean Suzuki would lose to a clean Osmond, for one. Or that a clean Gold would lose to a clean Korpi.

4. Gracie Gold
5. Akiko Suzuki
6. Ashley Wagner
7. Kanako Murakami
8. Adelina Sotnikova/Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
9. Julia Lipnitskaia
10. Kaetlyn Osmond
11. Kiira Korpi

I dont think a clean Korpi would place that low. The judges adore her and give her inflated marks even with alot of mistakes. It doesnt matter since she will never skate cleanly but she wouldnt place that low if she did.

I highly doubt Lipnitskaia would beat anyone noteable with all skating cleanly, but the reason I think she will make the Russian Olympic team over atleast one of Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva is she is so much more consistent than they are.

ForeverFish · Jun 29, 2013

pangtongfan said:
I dont think a clean Korpi would place that low. The judges adore her and give her inflated marks even with alot of mistakes. It doesnt matter since she will never skate cleanly but she wouldnt place that low if she did.

I highly doubt Lipnitskaia would beat anyone noteable with all skating cleanly, but the reason I think she will make the Russian Olympic team over atleast one of Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva is she is so much more consistent than they are.

I don't think that Kiira would beat any of the above even if clean, though. She doesn't attempt the big combinations (3T+3T doesn't count), so I can't see her surpassing those who do (or those like Kanako, who gets high enough PCS to mostly balance out her UR's).

Lipnitskaia could beat both Osmond and Korpi if clean, I think. But not the others.

pangtongfan · Jun 29, 2013

We will probably never find out but Murakami doesnt get huge PCS. I think the judges would give Korpi higher PCS than Murakami if both were clean. Not doing the hard combinations doesnt matter much under COP, except a bit in the short. The difficulty of a triple lutz-triple toe vs a triple toe-triple isnt rewarded under COP like under 6.0. Say the skater who did the toe-toe did 2 lutzes, and the skater who did the lutz-toe did a solo lutz and solo toe, the point total would be the same, and even if the latter did a 2nd triple flip or loop the difference would still be miniscule overall. Korpi doesnt have problems with URs on the jumps she does like Murakami.

Osmond should beat Lipnitskaia if both are clean. She has much better quality and bigger jumps, and much better choreography and speed.

chuckm · Jun 29, 2013

The problem is Lipnitskaia is usually clean, while Osmond, with five international competitions under her belt, has yet to deliver even a nearly clean FS.

pangtongfan · Jun 30, 2013

chuckm said:
The problem is Lipnitskaia is usually clean, while Osmond, with five international competitions under her belt, has yet to deliver even a nearly clean FS.

She wasnt so regularly clean last season. She made mistakes in all her events other than Finlandia, and failed to defend her World Junior title, losing to an even younger skater. I still have a feeling she will rebound enough to make the Russian Olympic team at the expense of one of Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva, but there is no doubt her star dimmed a bit from what it was in 2011-2012. Had this same topic been a year ago she would be much more favorable in peoples eyes, as people were really excited about her then, and not so much now.

ForeverFish · Jun 30, 2013

pangtongfan said:
She wasnt so regularly clean last season. She made mistakes in all her events other than Finlandia, and failed to defend her World Junior title, losing to an even younger skater. I still have a feeling she will rebound enough to make the Russian Olympic team at the expense of one of Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva, but there is no doubt her star dimmed a bit from what it was in 2011-2012. Had this same topic been a year ago she would be much more favorable in peoples eyes, as people were really excited about her then, and not so much now.

Julia's 2013 WJC performance should be excused, I believe, because she was still recovering from her concussion. I highly doubt that a healthy Julia would have placed as low as fifth at Russian Junior Nationals. As for her other performances last season, I wasn't surprised to see her shaky and uncertain on the GP, when she finally realized that she was playing for real. It's an issue that many (almost all) face in the junior-to-senior transition. In fact, I'd go so far as to argue that the first two years on the senior circuit are the hardest -- see Tukt (two GP golds her first year, one silver the second) and Sotnikova (two bronzes the first year, one bronze the second).

Many believe that either Tukt or Sotnikova will be knocked out of an Olympic spot by Julia, but I'm not so sure this is likely. Tukt will be fighting her hardest if only because her Samsung sponsorship demands it; Sotnikova is a 3-time Russian champion who knows the drill. If Julia proves to be seriously affected by her changing body, she may lose the advantage of consistency/steady nerves over the other two.

pohatta · Jun 30, 2013

Jammers said:
I agree. Gracie lost at Cup of Russia narrowly to Korpi mainly because of a sloppy LP. Even in just her second GP event of her career she would have beat Korpi if clean and now with a year under her belt the judges have shown that that will give Gracie the marks.

In that competition Korpi missed both of her triple loops in the LP. Sounds like you're trying to compare a sloppy Gold to a clean Korpi, and that's not the case.

Moment · Jun 30, 2013

Kiira can score very high, 125+ in the LP, if she skates clean. It's just never happening though.

gmyers · Jun 30, 2013

Samsung will make Liza better at short programs? We'll see! Lol. Knowing the drill for sotnikova really doesn't make flips reliable. Though of course she could reduce reliability on flips. There's a reason why I think Julia is number one. Her problems are less than the problems of Liza and sotnikova almost combined and her wjc 2013 performance being far superior to Liza and Adelina no pressure wtt performances in addition to their worlds performances in which people excuse Liza and adelina's atrocious performances because of nerves.

Mathman · Jun 30, 2013

gmyers said:
Samsung will make Liza better at short programs? We'll see! Lol.

The suspicion in figure skating has always been that money talks. The sponsors want their girl to get good scores, the ISU (not to mention the IOC) wants the sponsors to be happy, the National Federations want the ISU to be happy, the judges want the National Federations to be happy...

Jammers · Jun 30, 2013

pohatta said:
In that competition Korpi missed both of her triple loops in the LP. Sounds like you're trying to compare a sloppy Gold to a clean Korpi, and that's not the case.

That's true but Gracie even with all her struggles last season slated a clean LP at the WTT at the end of the season with only a triple jump being doubled and scored 127 points.

pangtongfan · Jun 30, 2013

I also think if Wagner and Gold both skate cleanly who the USFSA prefers as its #1 will probably determine who places higher. Murakami vs Suzuki will be a similar situation, but based on who the JSF considers their #2.

ForeverFish · Jun 30, 2013

gmyers said:
Samsung will make Liza better at short programs? We'll see! Lol. Knowing the drill for sotnikova really doesn't make flips reliable. Though of course she could reduce reliability on flips. There's a reason why I think Julia is number one. Her problems are less than the problems of Liza and sotnikova almost combined and her wjc 2013 performance being far superior to Liza and Adelina no pressure wtt performances in addition to their worlds performances in which people excuse Liza and adelina's atrocious performances because of nerves.

Erm, no. Liza and her team will make Liza better at short programs. Having a big Olympic sponsor is simply extra incentive to make the team.

Flips or not, you can't reasonably deny that experience doesn't go a long way. Julia has.competed in 1 RN; Adelina has been in how many? Five? Not even in the worst case scenario would that put her at a disadvantage.

gmyers · Jun 30, 2013

Mathman said:
The suspicion in figure skating has always been that money talks. The sponsors want their girl to get good scores, the ISU (not to mention the IOC) wants the sponsors to be happy, the National Federations want the ISU to be happy, the judges want the National Federations to be happy...

ForeverFish said:
Erm, no. Liza and her team will make Liza better at short programs. Having a big Olympic sponsor is simply extra incentive to make the team.

Flips or not, you can't reasonably deny that experience doesn't go a long way. Julia has.competed in 1 RN; Adelina has been in how many? Five? Not even in the worst case scenario would that put her at a disadvantage.

Well nationals is not really that decisive in getting to te olympics. Euros is just as important if not greater. If Liza Adelina Julia go to euros it Adelina only has a 1 trip advantage. In 2012 Julia almost won Russian nationals. There is not much of an advantage factor Adelina has. If you look at how people argue the pressure at being at their first worlds got to both Liza and Adelina than trying for their first olympic trip could be devastating for both of them. No matter how much samsung sponsors Liza or the Russian federation likes Adelina. Both benefit a lot from their being no real standard of performance at Russian nationals in going to euros. The winner is the only one who gets an automatic trip. The winner if Adelina Julia Liza don't win might not even be eligible. So then it is whoever has the federation support or samsung sponsorship! Hope they skate well but it's not even really necessary. It's more necessary at euros maybe.

pangtongfan said:
She wasnt so regularly clean last season. She made mistakes in all her events other than Finlandia, and failed to defend her World Junior title, losing to an even younger skater. I still have a feeling she will rebound enough to make the Russian Olympic team at the expense of one of Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva, but there is no doubt her star dimmed a bit from what it was in 2011-2012. Had this same topic been a year ago she would be much more favorable in peoples eyes, as people were really excited about her then, and not so much now.

In 2013 Julia Lost to the better Elena. Elena is younger but younger doesn't mean inferior. Elena is also better than Liza and Adelina.

ice coverage · Jul 1, 2013

golden411 said:
If you are referring to the injury that prevented Korpi from skating at Worlds ... she has been back on the ice for weeks, if I am not mistaken. (If she has had a new-new very recent injury, then sorry, I am not aware of that.)
And I believe that she was in Canada getting choreography not too long ago. Ashley Wagner and she were tweeting about coincidentally being there at the same time.

Correcting myself re Korpi

:

It was three MONTHS ago (Mar 28, even further back than I had remembered previously) that Korpi received the green light from her doctor to return to the ice.

https://twitter.com/kiirakorpi_fi/status/317195272084144128

She performed in some shows in April.
Some of her tweets make references to her training, e.g.:

@kiirakorpi_fi

Excited about this week's training. Ready to attack some more triple jumps!  #sochionmymind
2:02 AM - 13 May 13

Jeffrey Buttle and she finished her new SP choreography on June 15.

https://twitter.com/kiirakorpi_fi/status/345942835066982400

vera01 · Jul 1, 2013

golden411 said:
Correcting myself re Korpi :

It was three MONTHS ago (even longer than I remembered previously) that Korpi received the green light from her doctor to return to the ice.

https://twitter.com/kiirakorpi_fi/status/317195272084144128
She performed in some shows in April.
Some of her tweets make references to her training, e.g.:

@kiirakorpi_fi

Excited about this week's training. Ready to attack some more triple jumps!  #sochionmymind
2:02 AM - 13 May 13
Jeffrey Buttle and she finished her new SP choreography on June 15.

https://twitter.com/kiirakorpi_fi/status/345942835066982400

Good luck to Kiira on upcoming season

! I hope there would be no injuries for her next season-I really missed watching her skate.

The rest of the top 12 ladies and the Olympics....

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