Which country will lead in medals at Sochi? | Golden Skate

Which country will lead in medals at Sochi?

skateluvr

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 23, 2011
Well, who will take home the heaviest bag?

Japan? likely a mens medal, maybe a ladies. pairs or dance? nu uh. so maybe 2 max.

How will the rest fair?
 

Big Deal

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 23, 2004
Japan: maybe 2 , but in an extremly lucky day it can be 3 (2 men, 1 lady)
Canada: maybe 2 (ice dance, men), but in a lucky day it can be 3 (pairs), plus a team medal for sure.
Russia: maybe 2 (pairs for sure, and I think judges will provide an ice dance bronz doesn't matter B/S or I/K), plus a team medal, because this set of medals was created for them
Germany: 1 (pairs)
USA. maybe 1 (dance) and 1 for the team.
Italy: 1 (lady) in the unlikely case of miracle 2 (dance)


A slight chance to Spain (men), China (pairs).
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Canada
a second place fight between USA or Russia
Japan
Germany
Italy
maybe Spain
China not so much
 

clairecloutier

Final Flight
Joined
Aug 27, 2003
Interesting question. My thoughts so far:

U.S.
Likely--2 (1 ice dance, 1 team)
Possible--3 (1 ice dance, 1 ladies, 1 team). I do think it's possible that Gold/Wagner could win a surprise medal.

CANADA
Likely--4 (1 pairs, 1 men, 1 ice dance, 1 team)
Possible--4. Some might think Osmond or Weaver/Poje are outside shots for a medal, but I don't see it happening.

RUSSIA
Likely--2 (1 pairs, 1 team)
Possible--5 (2 pairs, 1 men, 1 ice dance, 1 team)
Outside possibility if Putin bribes/strong-arms judges/ISU--6 (2 pairs, 1 men, 1 ice dance, 1 ladies, 1 team) I don't think there will be a Russian lady on the podium unless something funny happens behind the scenes.

JAPAN
Likely--2 (1 men, 1 ladies). I don't think the Japanese men will be denied two years in a row.
Possible--3 (2 men, 1 ladies)
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Interesting question. My thoughts so far:

U.S.
Likely--2 (1 ice dance, 1 team)
Possible--3 (1 ice dance, 1 ladies, 1 team). I do think it's possible that Gold/Wagner could win a surprise medal.

CANADA
Likely--4 (1 pairs, 1 men, 1 ice dance, 1 team)
Possible--4. Some might think Osmond or Weaver/Poje are outside shots for a medal, but I don't see it happening.

RUSSIA
Likely--2 (1 pairs, 1 team)
Possible--5 (2 pairs, 1 men, 1 ice dance, 1 team)
Outside possibility if Putin bribes/strong-arms judges/ISU--6 (2 pairs, 1 men, 1 ice dance, 1 ladies, 1 team) I don't think there will be a Russian lady on the podium unless something funny happens behind the scenes.

JAPAN
Likely--2 (1 men, 1 ladies). I don't think the Japanese men will be denied two years in a row.
Possible--3 (2 men, 1 ladies)

I agree with all that except I do think Weaver & Poje definitely have an outside shot of a medal. Reynolds might have an outside shot of a medal too. Canada will likely win the most medals overall.
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
Russia - possible is one medal in Ladies.

If Adelina will earn jumping stability
or
Liza will be in her best (she is best female jumper in Russia and very good at all if in her best)
or
Julia will restore her stability of season 2011/2012

- one medal (bronze) may be.

Not more than one medal even all three will be in their best.
And of course only possible.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Russia - possible is one medal in Ladies.

If Adelina will earn jumping stability
or
Liza will be in her best (she is best female jumper in Russia and very good at all if in her best)
or
Julia will restore her stability of season 2011/2012

- one medal (bronze) may be.

Not more than one medal even all three will be in their best.
And of course only possible.

yes but it will also require the crumbling of 3 or 4 other top skaters
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
yes but it will also require the crumbling of 3 or 4 other top skaters
No.
Only not ideal skating of Mao or Caro is needed. Mao often skates not ideally, clean skating of Caro I don't remember for years.
Yuna is unbeatable.
All other skaters may be won by Adelina, Liza, Julia in their best.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
No.
Only not ideal skating of Mao or Caro is needed. Mao often skates not ideally, clean skating of Caro I don't remember for years.
Yuna is unbeatable.
All other skaters may be won by Adelina, Liza, Julia in their best.

Yuna - true will be unbeatable unless she has an epic meltdown

but others Mao, Carolina, Gold these three will be fighting for podium too
outside shots Kanako maybe Wagner along with the Russian girls Adelina or Julia
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
Yuna - true will be unbeatable unless she has an epic meltdown

but others Mao, Carolina, Gold these three will be fighting for podium too
outside shots Kanako maybe Wagner along with the Russian girls Adelina or Julia
Ashley Wagner, and possibly Zijun Li and Akiko (she is very good in her best) also will be fighting for podium.
Who will win in this fight - nobody knows.

Remember - at Euro-2013 Kostner was only "half step ahead" Adelina and Liza (when Liza was mistaken in SP and Adelina in FS).

And I don't think that Gold's chance is higher than Wagner's.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I agree with eyria, although I think B/S are practically guaranteed bronze in Russia if they stay on their feet (though it might be close).
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
No.
Only not ideal skating of Mao or Caro is needed. Mao often skates not ideally, clean skating of Caro I don't remember for years.
Yuna is unbeatable.
All other skaters may be won by Adelina, Liza, Julia in their best.

And how long has it been since Liza and Adelina skated clean?
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
And how long has it been since Liza and Adelina skated clean?

Adelina, close to clean Europeans 2013
Tuk skated a clean program back in TEB 2011

anyways if there is a boycott by USA which will be followed by Canada of course
Russia can max 2 for pairs, 2 for ice dance, 1 for man and woman
Japan 2 for man and 1 for woman, Italy maybe 1 for dance, 1 for lady and 1 for pair, Spain 1 for man
France maybe 1 for Ice dance, China maybe 1 for pairs if lucky enough
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
It does make sense to start factoring in possible boycotts! No D/W and V/M mean ice dance medals are totally up in the air where B/S and I/k could medal! P/B would be frontrunners! No US ladies great for Russian girls!


If IOC moves the olympics and Russia boycotts that means s/s in pairs or even d/r win gold!!
 

gourry

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
I see no one is mentioning Korea whereas Spain, Germany, Italy and China are mentioned.
Is it because Yuna is from Republic of Yunakim? :p
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2009
I see no one is mentioning Korea whereas Spain, Germany, Italy and China are mentioned.
Is it because Yuna is from Republic of Yunakim? :p


I think you've got it, Gourry!

But wait a minute. Is it a republic or a monarchy? YuNa is Queen, after all. Maybe it's a constitutional monarchy, like Denmark.
 

CaroLiza_fan

EZETTIE LATUASV IVAKMHA
Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 25, 2012
Country
Northern-Ireland
This lot:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn2/1146703_3333845962965_186276650_n.jpg

Sorry, I know not all of these athletes are skaters, and not all of the skating team are pictured either. But, I just couldn't resist using this question as an excuse to show this photo. ;) :biggrin:

Thanks for sharing this photo on Facebook, Ira.

Seriously, I do think Russia will do well in the medals count. Realistically, the only chances of a home Gold medal will be in the Men's (Plushy) and the Pairs (Volosozhar/Trankov). But, they have chances of other medals in all of the categories (Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva in Ladies; Bobrova/Soloviev or Ilinykh/Katsalapov in Dance; Kawaguchi/Smirnov in Pairs).

Japan will hopefully win the gold in the Ladies (Asada), and will hopefully get the bronze as well (Suzuki). They should be in with a good chance of at least one medal in the Men's (Takahashi and/or Hanyu).

Canada will also be up there. Unless something radically goes wrong, their best chances at Gold will be in Men's (Chan) and Dance (Virtue/Moir). But, they could also be in with a realistic chance of a Bronze in the Pairs (Duhamel/Radford, or maybe even Moore-Towers/Moscovitch), and maybe even a Bronze in Dance (Weaver/Poje).

America's only chance of a Gold medal is in Dance (Davis/White), and their only other chance of a medal is in the Ladies (Wagner).

So, it will be between Russia, Japan and Canada. If I have to choose one, I'm torn between Russia and Japan. But I think I'll go with...

RUSSIA :points:

The reason for this choice is simply that Russia has realistic chances of at least 1 medal in more categories (all of them, in fact!). Japan only has chances of at least 1 medal in 2 categories (the singles categories).

But, we'll just have to wait and see! :biggrin: :popcorn:

CaroLiza_fan
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
This lot:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn2/1146703_3333845962965_186276650_n.jpg

Sorry, I know not all of these athletes are skaters, and not all of the skating team are pictured either. But, I just couldn't resist using this question as an excuse to show this photo. ;) :biggrin:

Thanks for sharing this photo on Facebook, Ira.

Seriously, I do think Russia will do well in the medals count. Realistically, the only chances of a home Gold medal will be in the Men's (Plushy) and the Pairs (Volosozhar/Trankov). But, they have chances of other medals in all of the categories (Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva in Ladies; Bobrova/Soloviev or Ilinykh/Katsalapov in Dance; Kawaguchi/Smirnov in Pairs).

Japan will hopefully win the gold in the Ladies (Asada), and will hopefully get the bronze as well (Suzuki). They should be in with a good chance of at least one medal in the Men's (Takahashi and/or Hanyu).

Canada will also be up there. Unless something radically goes wrong, their best chances at Gold will be in Men's (Chan) and Dance (Virtue/Moir). But, they could also be in with a realistic chance of a Bronze in the Pairs (Duhamel/Radford, or maybe even Moore-Towers/Moscovitch), and maybe even a Bronze in Dance (Weaver/Poje).

America's only chance of a Gold medal is in Dance (Davis/White), and their only other chance of a medal is in the Ladies (Wagner).

So, it will be between Russia, Japan and Canada. If I have to choose one, I'm torn between Russia and Japan. But I think I'll go with...

RUSSIA :points:

The reason for this choice is simply that Russia has realistic chances of at least 1 medal in more categories (all of them, in fact!). Japan only has chances of at least 1 medal in 2 categories (the singles categories).

But, we'll just have to wait and see! :biggrin: :popcorn:

CaroLiza_fan

While I think Russia has outside chances in some disciplines, I really think the only discipline they have a decent chance is gold in pairs and a bronze in ice dance. There is nothing that leads me to believe that a current Russian man (even Plushenko, who might have had a chance before his surgery left him as a question) could win a medal of any colour. The Russian girls are in the same boat. In terms of skaters potentially winning, I consider the condition they're in and their current state relative to other skaters (instead of things like how high they could hypothetically score, or how high they scored in non-recent competitions). Liza/Sotnikova have a huge PCS hurdle that they will literally have to jump over (they are very lucky that Kostner/Asada aren't entirely consistent otherwise they would easily be shut out of the medals 100%). Plushenko will also have to up his technical game and rely on the other top guys to make mistakes. When skaters need to rely on others to make mistakes when they are at their best, I don't exactly consider them as "chances" per say.
 

Celine

On the Ice
Joined
Jun 30, 2013
CONSPIRACY THEORY!!!

I think that Putin is deliberately being provocative, and is HOPING that the US will pull out of the Games (Snowden, Gay hate/no civil rights, etc. etc.) so that after all the BILLIONS that he has spent (RECORD LEVELS DUDE! YOU MR PUTIN WIN THE GOLD ON SHELLING OUT FOR AN OLYMPICS!!) will result in an Olympics that won't be the embarrassment that is looking likely to be.... where the host nation, will NOT astound with either a "win" or a "much better than expected medal haul (witness - the second week acceleration that England delivered in London, which put it near the notables section amongst nation/medal hauls). Russia would certainly benefit from a stupidly absent USA - and the white-washing which Russia and the world will be emphatic in presenting before the short-term memory of the media and world).

AND SO ... so answer the question. Hmmm.... :confused::p
 
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