I would predict that this is how it would go:
1. Wagner- home ice + her record of usually starting strong should suffice. However, I will keep in mind her late coaching change and see how it affects her skating. Remember, Asada's first outing after joining forces with Arutunian wasn't all that great. It got better by the time Worlds came around (but then that may be more Asada's tendency to burn slowly). She 'seems' hungry for it and adamant to prove her critics from Nationals wrong. Going into Olympic season too, I'm pretty certain that she will have her game face on to keep her momentum and keep the judges' trust.
2. Asada- at best I would say Mao will come in second. If she goes conservative and do the way she did last season, she can eke out a win from under Ashley by a point or two, but since she's already said she wants to start the season with the planned difficulty to get her steam going, then chances are she will pop (or double/two-foot) planned 3A and lose points. However, the past season showed that she can be propped up by her PCS scores. The judges also seem to reward her artistry more so than in the past, so even with a couple of mistakes (at the most- and that includes the possibility of a doubled salchow) she can stay in the top 2.
3. Tuktamysheva. I am aware that Radionova has garnered quite a following already and being the fresh face will put enormous pressure on her. She can even shock us and steal the gold, but as ugly and horrendous Tuk's SP this year, if she pulls off the technical in both programs, it should be enough. I wish she would drop the Biellman and work on a wonderful layback instead, but you never know what Mishin thinks. I've not completely lost faith on Tuk but her campaign for the Olympic season can start or end here.
1. Wagner- home ice + her record of usually starting strong should suffice. However, I will keep in mind her late coaching change and see how it affects her skating. Remember, Asada's first outing after joining forces with Arutunian wasn't all that great. It got better by the time Worlds came around (but then that may be more Asada's tendency to burn slowly). She 'seems' hungry for it and adamant to prove her critics from Nationals wrong. Going into Olympic season too, I'm pretty certain that she will have her game face on to keep her momentum and keep the judges' trust.
2. Asada- at best I would say Mao will come in second. If she goes conservative and do the way she did last season, she can eke out a win from under Ashley by a point or two, but since she's already said she wants to start the season with the planned difficulty to get her steam going, then chances are she will pop (or double/two-foot) planned 3A and lose points. However, the past season showed that she can be propped up by her PCS scores. The judges also seem to reward her artistry more so than in the past, so even with a couple of mistakes (at the most- and that includes the possibility of a doubled salchow) she can stay in the top 2.
3. Tuktamysheva. I am aware that Radionova has garnered quite a following already and being the fresh face will put enormous pressure on her. She can even shock us and steal the gold, but as ugly and horrendous Tuk's SP this year, if she pulls off the technical in both programs, it should be enough. I wish she would drop the Biellman and work on a wonderful layback instead, but you never know what Mishin thinks. I've not completely lost faith on Tuk but her campaign for the Olympic season can start or end here.