Which three Japanese men will go to Sochi? | Page 5 | Golden Skate

Which three Japanese men will go to Sochi?

NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
Right now, the only lock is Hanyu but Takahashi will be selected barring irredeemable disasters at Japanese nationals. His presence is necessary to divert media attentions and national expectations away from Hanyu. Oda, Kozuka and other guys can't do that job in the first place. The third spot should go to the the most promising #2 man after Sochi. Apparently Machida has taken some lead, and Mura is another candidate. Oda started out strongly as usual but probably runs out of steam by Japanese nationals. He ALWAYS makes stupid mistakes at major competitions. Even a couple of strong skates before nationals won't regain the federation's confidence. Kozuka has the least chance among the top six. There's a saying that Sato's #2 students tend to miss the Olympics.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
After Skate America I can see I greatly underestimated Machida. He definitely has a huge shot, maybe the favorite for the 3rd spot right now.
 

pitterpatter

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 25, 2012
well, with 3 of the Japanese men at SA and the other 3 at SC this coming week, we'll get a pretty even look at how things are shaking out.
 

blue_idealist

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
It might be Hanyu, Machida and either Oda or Kozuka. If you asked me before the start of this season if Takahashi would be there, I would have laughed at the possibility of him staying home. However, he has been at his worst as of late. Even as a fan I think he's at risk of not making the team. I'm not sure if Machida will hold up, either, because last year he did well on the GP and then kind of sunk a bit from there. I could even see a Hanyu/Oda/Kozuka team. Oda's another question mark since he's not that consistent either.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Takahashi will be hard pressed to make the podium at Japanese nationals. I agree about the media attention and how he's way more prolific than any of the Japanese men, but if Oda/Hanyu/Machida do really well on the Grand Prix (as Machida already has so far and Oda/Hanyu seem poised to do), it will be really difficult to justify Takahashi's presence. Machida scored almost 30 points higher than Takahashi at Skate America. Takahashi's PCS marks will keep him up, but only until people start finally saying the emperor isn't wearing any clothes. I'm glad he rotated his quad and did his axels in his Skate America FS though, which shows he's a fighter and isn't willing to give in that quickly. He's quite fortunate Brown had a really disastrous FS, otherwise he could have been 5th. I can't remember, but skaters in the past have made the GPF with a 4th and a 1st, right?
 

phaeljones

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 18, 2012
Takahashi will be hard pressed to make the podium at Japanese nationals. I agree about the media attention and how he's way more prolific than any of the Japanese men, but if Oda/Hanyu/Machida do really well on the Grand Prix (as Machida already has so far and Oda/Hanyu seem poised to do), it will be really difficult to justify Takahashi's presence. Machida scored almost 30 points higher than Takahashi at Skate America. Takahashi's PCS marks will keep him up, but only until people start finally saying the emperor isn't wearing any clothes. I'm glad he rotated his quad and did his axels in his Skate America FS though, which shows he's a fighter and isn't willing to give in that quickly. He's quite fortunate Brown had a really disastrous FS, otherwise he could have been 5th. I can't remember, but skaters in the past have made the GPF with a 4th and a 1st, right?

Yup. Hanyu did in 2011-2012. He was fourth in Cup of China and first at Rostelecom to qualify for the GPF in Montreal.

Takahashi has to do something drastic. NHK will be do or die for Takahashi and he will have to beat Fernandez and Oda. Can't see it unless both Oda (possible based on past years except that he skated well at Nebelhorn) and Fernandez (unlikely) cack. I have to really admire Takahashi's class by reason of the short interviews he did in English after Skate America though. But he still has to up his skating.
 

starryxskies

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 2, 2012
I can't remember, but skaters in the past have made the GPF with a 4th and a 1st, right?
Javier made it last year with his gold from SC and 4th at NHK. However, NHK is still pretty stacked with Javier, Oda and the same 2 American men that placed ahead of him in SA this year.

I can see the JFed holding Dai up so that he makes the team (if he bombs JN). He does rack in the advertising dollars... and this is the VERY last chance to milk his popularity dry. Who realistically has the chance to podium and grab OGM besides Yuzuru of the remaining 5 anyway? Yuzuru's got the podium covered already and the networks need their 2 national heroes to bring in the viewers. That would be my theory behind Yuzuru (who is a lock) and Dai making the team. The 3rd man, will either be between the "oldies" Oda and Kozuka with Olympic experience or the newer 2 without that experience. If Oda and Kozuka do well, I can see the better of the two (from GP series and JN) going. I do think Oda's history of bad performances when it counts will be taken into consideration. If Kozuka can blow his next GP out of the water and at JN, he has the upper hand against Oda. Machida and Mura haven't built that consistency yet to tackle Olympic nerves. To me, they are high risk investments. True, they are the ones staying post-Sochi but for Sochi, the fed may not want to put all their eggs into Yuzuru and an on and off Dai.
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Country
France
I can't remember, but skaters in the past have made the GPF with a 4th and a 1st, right?

Historically, getting 1st and 4th has always been enough to make the GPF, but this year that might not be enough. There's so much talent that is in good form.
 

msteach3

Medalist
Joined
Mar 28, 2013
Country
United-States
To answer the title question, I believe Hanyu and Takahashi are a lock. The third man could be Kozuka or one of the new comers. I just cannot imagine Sochi game without Hanyu and Takahashi unless their own physical reasons. God, no! No injuries of any kind anymore for any skaters this season!!!

After SA I would say Kozuka is along shot. He seems to have lost his confidence and just hasn't grown as a skater. He looked a bit stiff and unsure in Detroit.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
At this point I would call an Olympic Team of Hanyu, Takahashi, and Machida, although I agree now Hanyu is the only lock. Mura, Oda, and Kozuka all still have an outside shot. I think if Takahashi skates haflway decent he will still not be ever placed below Oda or a fading Kozuka, especialy at Japanese Nationals.
 

phaeljones

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 18, 2012
Historically, getting 1st and 4th has always been enough to make the GPF, but this year that might not be enough. There's so much talent that is in good form.

Very true.

As well, I am just wondering if it is really that important for Takahashi to make GPF. Maybe not too much. At NHK, he is skating against two others of the amazing cast of six. He only has to be better than two other skaters to make the team. Just two (albeit really good skaters). Forgetting whether he wins at NHK and qualifies for GPF (it would probably put him for a lock if he did), it should still be okay for the Olympic team if he comes out properly ahead of Mura and Oda at NHK, shouldn't it? At NHK, his most important competition is between him and his own nationals for a spot.

(Edited note from me: Sorry, I had a brain freeze. Ya, he has to beat three skaters, but just two that day, and he has already come out ahead of Kozuka. That is what I meant. So he has done okay at the Grand Prix beating two at NHK and one at SA, and it comes down to Japanese Nationals. Sorry for the brain freeze.)
 

hurrah

Medalist
Joined
Aug 8, 2009
I really hope Daisuke can come ahead of Mura and Oda, but I'm not sure that he will. Oda, in particular, is a great skater and if has learnt to count, there is a very strong possibility that he will come out ahead.

It breaks my heart to think that Daisuke will not make the Olympic team, but I think it is feasible that it will be Yuzuru, Machida and Oda who make the team.
 

starryxskies

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 2, 2012
As well, I am just wondering if it is really that important for Takahashi to make GPF

You probably raise a good point. Last season, he peaked at GPF and JN. Ideally, any skater would want a good final season throughout but his main goal is Sochi OGM and has been since 2011. He might want to save his body for the competitions that count (JN and Sochi).

He already achieved his GPF gold last season so theres nothing left to achieve there. Everybody (a majority) seems to agree that if he does well at JN, regardless GP results, he'll make the team.

I doubt he really needs GPF for reputation at the Olympics?
 

pitterpatter

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 25, 2012
Very true.

As well, I am just wondering if it is really that important for Takahashi to make GPF. Maybe not too much. At NHK, he is skating against two others of the amazing cast of six. He only has to be better than two other skaters to make the team. Just two (albeit really good skaters). Forgetting whether he wins at NHK and qualifies for GPF (it would probably put him for a lock if he did), it should still be okay for the Olympic team if he comes out properly ahead of Mura and Oda at NHK, shouldn't it? At NHK, his most important competition is between him and his own nationals for a spot.

I see your logic, but considering the JSF s selection criteria, I think beating the two other Japanese skaters at NHK wont mean anything if he doesn't get a GPF spot out of it. This competition for olympic spots comprises of two parts - one is performance in the GP series, culminating in the final, second part is nationals. for someone like machida, strong showings throughout the GP and also at nats will be necessary to give him a shot at an Olympic spot. for takahashi, if he gets into the GPF and performs well, even if he falters at nats there'll be justification to put him through. if he doesn't get into the final, he wont have that cushion and will have to grab top three at nats
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Country
France
Considering the JSF selection criteria, I think beating the two other Japanese skaters at NHK wont mean anything if he doesn't get a GPF spot out of it.

I disagree. One of the selection criteria is World ranking. Takahashi is going to be top 3 in terms of World ranking among the Japanese Men no matter what (simply because of his record the past two seasons, in comparison to all of the other Japanese guys except Hanyu having missed a lot of key events the past two seasons). Because of that alone, he can theoretically still be selected for the Olympic team even if he bombs NHK and Japanese Nationals.

He won't be selected if he bombs both competitions, but if he delivers at NHK (and then doesn't do so well at Japanese Nationals), that still might be enough for the Japanese fed to put him on the team. Even if he doesn't make the GPF.

Simply making the GPF doesn't mean anything to begin with. Takahashi would have to actually do well there for it to mean anything. Given his current state, what are the chances he does really well at the Grand Prix final? I think not a great chance.

Basically, the point I'm trying to get at is that Takahashi should probably aim to peak at Japanese Nationals. He doesn't need the Grand Prix to hype up his name, like the other Japanese Men (aside from Hanyu) need it. He just needs to be top 3 at Japanese Nationals. If he manages that, I'm 99.9% sure he will be put on the team...UNLESS Hanyu is out of the top 3 at Nationals after delivering big time on the Grand Prix circuit, and Takahashi is only 3rd at Japanese Nationals. If that scenario happens, then I think Takahashi will be left off the team in favor of Hanyu.
 

Srin Odessa

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 23, 2012
I really hope Daisuke can come ahead of Mura and Oda, but I'm not sure that he will. Oda, in particular, is a great skater and if has learnt to count, there is a very strong possibility that he will come out ahead.

It breaks my heart to think that Daisuke will not make the Olympic team, but I think it is feasible that it will be Yuzuru, Machida and Oda who make the team.

The marketers at JSF have a backup plan. The worlds this year is held at Japan. A skater who fails to make it to the Olympic team could be sent to worlds. While the event won't have as much buzz as the Olympics, it could be a good send off for any skaters planning on retiring after a high profile domestic event.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I disagree. One of the selection criteria is World ranking. Takahashi is going to be top 3 in terms of World ranking among the Japanese Men no matter what (simply because of his record the past two seasons, in comparison to all of the other Japanese guys except Hanyu having missed a lot of key events the past two seasons). Because of that alone, he can theoretically still be selected for the Olympic team even if he bombs NHK and Japanese Nationals.

Part of his world ranking is due to actually be able to have competed at Worlds though, right? Not to mention selections to specific competitions like 4CC.
 
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